By Jo Nova
Careful, your subsidies are showing…
The more we make, the more we waste. The trend is clear and it’s so Soviet.
Spring is the season with the most wasted renewable production, and each spring is more wasteful than the one before.
There are two sorts of “curtailment” where the generator has to shut off production. Network curtailment happens when a a transmission line is already at capacity, or a line is down . But Economic Curtailment is rapidly becoming the big drain. It occurs when there was such a glut of power that prices went negative. Generators were producing something so useless they had to pay people to take it away. Investors flee at this point. This is hidden under jargon called “Offloading” which sounds a bit like 4-wheel driving with a lisp. I mean, they could have called it “toxic energy.
From the AEMO Q4 report
“During Q4 2025, total economic offloading of wind and grid-scale solar generation averaged 1,312 MW, the highest quarterly average on record (Figure 45). This exceeded the previous peak set in Q4 2024 by 653 MW (+99%).
Grid-scale solar economic offloading rose sharply, increasing from 343 MW to an all-time high of 618 MW (+275 MW, +80%). As a share of average grid-scale solar availability, offloading increased from 13% to 18%.”
So nearly one fifth of all the electricity that solar panels produced was tossed in the bin. And about 15% of wind turbine capacity. In South Australia an extraordinary 59% of potential energy from solar was lost. In total, some 7.2 Terawatt hours of renewable electricity was thrown away last year, because it was made at the wrong time or in the wrong place. As Dan Lee describes it on WattClarity,
” 1 TWh is roughly equivalent to the entire production from Gladstone Power Station Unit 4 in 2025″
So we’re wasting about 7 turbine units…
In the latest figures for the first quarter of 2026 the curtailment figures are back down again, but they are still higher than the same time last year. The inexorable rise of “curtailment” continues season by season.
This is not the same as the “waste” of having spare gas or coal generators because they are despatchable, and wind and solar are not.
Unlike most things, as we make more wind and solar power generators they wont get more efficient, not in a net production kind of way.
REFERENCES
See also Reneweconomy
So where does this put Minister Bowen’s often repeated comment that Australia’s future is to build more wind and solar? Geoff S
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Well Geoff, Minister Bowen certainly offers lots of wind. I presume that the solar he wants is in Turkey where he likes to spend lots of time (with lots of taxpayers funding) feeling important.
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$155M to splash about on trivia can buy a reasonable amount of importance.
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No one wants to talk about the Turkish nuclear power plants they built relatively quickly. I guess it’s because Russian expertise was involved, and we can’t be seen to say anything ice about them, can we…
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But Geoff we all know that we will need way more solar panels if they are going to power the grid at night. Infinitely more.
And how is the Snowy II scheme ever going to pump all that water uphill? Unless of course the water flowing down can power pumping it back up again.
Hey I might be onto something. The minister could call it perpetual motion. And with perpetual motion machines Australia really could become an energy superpower.
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1) Maybe rooftop solar EV charging is one reason for working from home (sarc)?
2) Pumping Mechanism in Snowy Hydro 2.0
Reversible Turbines
Snowy Hydro 2.0 utilizes reversible turbines as a key component of its pumping mechanism. These turbines serve a dual purpose:
Energy Generation: During peak electricity demand, water flows from the upper Tantangara Reservoir to the lower Talbingo Reservoir, generating electricity.
Energy Storage: When there is excess electricity available, the turbines operate in reverse. This allows water to be pumped back uphill from Talbingo to Tantangara, effectively storing energy.
3) I assume that Prime Minister Turnbull, Deputy Prime Minister Joyce and Cabinet Ministers must have all accepted that when wind turbines operate at times when the electricity is not needed the electricity can be used to power the hydro power station turbines?
4) Snowy Mountains Hydro Limited company has a Board of Directors, Chief Executive and other senior executives and for all intents and purposes SMH is a public company owned by taxpayers with shareholding held by the Cabinet Ministers and Departments responsible. SMH is required to pay dividends and is audited by the Audit Office, an Annual Report is published and available on line.
I am not supporting the Snowy 2.0 Project as I have my doubts about value for money, even before Albanese Labor tampered with the contractural arrangements for progress payments and other terms and conditions. The final latest estimated cost does include transmission lines that are not dedicated to Snowy 2.0 and also the $6-7 billion paid by the Federal Government to buy States shareholdings.
Snowy Mountains Hydro Limited is a business, the proposal to build 2.0 was I understand a SMH Board decision put to the government shareholders.
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“a public Company owned by TAXPAYERS with shareholding held by Cabinet Ministers and Departments… So,we the taxpayers own it, own the cost, the liability etc but grubby Ministers and Public Serpents are the shareholders? Where’s my dividend??
A clever fella by the name of Peter Lyndon-James has been doing a lot of investigative research on our politicians and Snowy 2.0 using AI to dig deep into the workings and highlighting some concerning findings.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7473515446575484928/
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/peter-lyndon-james_14-the-five-people-overseeing-your-biggest-activity-7461710501706731520-auDI?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABsEMZYBdgj0BpTt3jNnK1nFyE5_lfQ7fQI
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/peter-lyndon-james_the-commonwealth-knows-how-to-run-a-big-project-activity-7461701063369318400-ekqb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABsEMZYBdgj0BpTt3jNnK1nFyE5_lfQ7fQI
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Australia’s future? At this rate, the future is bleak. However, Reality will beat Ideology every time.
Emissions Impossible
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That’ll learn ’em!!
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The biggest challenge with curtailment is that AEMO cannot model it! So operators and investors have no idea how it will affect any individual site.
And therein lies the problem! Network curtailment is site specific. So it varies from site to site, and state to state:
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2026/02/keeping-up-with-the-curtailment-2025-beneath-the-headline-numbers/
But it impacts the bottom line of renewable operators, because it invariably kicks in when weather conditions allow for maximum generation. Which also means that it reduces the amount of income those renewable generators would otherwise have earned.
That’s why investment in renewables ground to a halt in 2025! Imagine a situation where, through forces outside your control as a business, you couldn’t make money, despite having all the necessary resources and conditions to do so?
Renewables are now experiencing exactly what the government has imposed on coal and gas fired generation for the last 17 years!
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The proponents worked it out and Blackout fixed it with his capacity investment scheme. The proponents get a government guaranteed return on their investment. Their base income is no longer linked to producing electricity. Actually producing electricity could result in a boinus payment.
All these deals are secret. They are transfer payments to China for useless stuff that will produce close to nothing.
There will be people who have a house and can afford solar panels and batteries and those who get government support to buy grid electricity. ALL remaining heavy industry in Australia already has some form of life support from taxpayers. I describe the kleptocracy that Australia has become below.
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The most important part is under the last graph, and should be highlighted in CAPITAL LETTERS.
Long past time we stopped the transfer of power between states, having the connections for NATIONAL EMERGENCY only.
What we now have appears like a ponzi scheme where the end users lose out EVERY TIME. And doesn’t even realise it.
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Western Australia is already “working” under the “no transfer” rules. 🙂
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Western Australia is an “Island”.
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This waste of energy trails the wasted space occupied by the AlPinochio administration !
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It’s not a waste of energy, it’s a surplus. Entrepreneurship will jump in to utilise that additional cheap power, price is a market signal. Financial newspapers around the world keep writing articles about how successful Australia’s energy policies have been, once again Jo is the contrarian.
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Business hasn’t found a use for random power. Apart from water bore windmills on farms, there is no industrial operation that works better on a random basis than on a 24/7 one.
Once a factory / operation is built, the staff, the capital costs and insurance and everything is always more efficient with power on demand. No matter what we build, the people in China who have despatchable power will make it cheaper.
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As I mentioned down the bottom, crypto miner operations tend to buy up cheap power (regardless of intermittency) all around the world, and the fact that they aren’t doing it in Australia suggests some additional regulatory obstruction. I have no idea what might be holding them back, perhaps access to the wholesale market in Australia is just too difficult and the retail market is tightly controlled in terms of the price they can offer. An electricity retailer in Australia offering floating spot price accounts probably is not even legal.
Most entrepreneurs take one look at Australian regulations and say, “Naaa, I ain’t that nuts.”
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If only there was a way to somehow store electrical energy…..
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and cheaply. Oh wait, that’s called “coal”.
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Hi Simon,
There is a way to provide the necessary storage.
All you need to do, for the Eastern Australian Grid’s present demand, to go all wind and solar, is to do the following:
1. Increase the present installed capacity of wind and solar by a factor of some 3.5;
2. Install a minimum of the order of 50,000 Geelong Big Batteries to deal with the storage requirement.
That 50,000 is not a typo, Simon. Each Geelong Big Battery occupies a land area the size of an AFL stadium.
So, where do you propose we put them?
Oh, these batteries last about 10 years, give or take, depending on how hard they are thrashed. Then they have to be replaced.
What do you propose to do about what is then a monumental waste disposal problem, remembering that each of these Big Batteries constitutes many tonnes of toxic, heavy metal, waste?
Oh, and Simon, this number of Big Batteries does not for a moment address the absolutely essential requirement to replace the very necessary Synchronous Inertia provided for free by conventional generation. How do you propose to address that matter with “renewables”, keeping in mind that nowhere has it been demonstrated at scale that so-called “grid-firming” can be achieved, reliably, let alone 24/7, by Big Batteries?
Oh, the cost, just of this number of batteries, and neglecting all the necessary extra transmission infrastructure, is of the order of at least 4 times Australia’s GDP.
Easy-peasy? Let me spell it out for you: absolutely impossible.
Oh, and Simon, it would be remiss of me to remind you that a considerable number of these Big Batteries will suffer thermal runaway, putting both communities and the surrounding environment at risk.
Now, Simon, do you begin to understand why it is that Jo might be a contrarian?
Next time, Simon, I suggest that you do the sums before you dare to comment.
Thanks Jo, for highlighting this enormous waste of resources, this huge environmental problem.
Paul Miskelly
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Simon says:
Oh you must mean at the scale needed?
I have dreams too; that Simon gains intelligence “at scale”.
Realistically neither dream will come true.
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Only successful at increasing the price of electricity from some of the cheapest to some of the dearest.
That’s ELECTRICKERY !
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Really Simon? You are beyond comprehension, it IS totally wasted energy, a quick look on Openelectricity.org.au shows there has been curtailment in the NEM since at least mid 2020, 6 years and all that’s happened is the WASTE has grown while idiots like Bowen, Giles Parkinson and Co promoted for more Rooftop solar, Farm land to be covered in Solar industrial parks and useless wind turbines.
Nobody has come up with a way to use unpredictable, intermittent, random power, and it’s taken the numpties years to realise some batteries might be useful to soak up some of that random sometimes there power!
And it’s all for nothing, barely any change in Australia’s emissions totals, let alone the world’s, of which we have ZERO control over or hope of changing (not that it needs changing or reducing). A complete ideological scam to transfer billions from the middle and lower classes to the wealthy.
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You are beyond comprehension, it IS totally wasted energy, a quick look on Openelectricity.org.au shows there has been curtailment in the NEM since at least mid 2020,
Have I missed the “operating reserve” which exists in every electrical distribution system?
In electricity networks, the operating reserve is the generating capacity available to the system operator within a short interval of time to meet demand in case a generator goes down or there is another disruption to the supply. Most power systems are designed so that, under normal conditions, the operating reserve is always at least the capacity of the largest supplier plus a fraction of the peak load
Courtesy of wiki…
In the old fashioned systems this excess capacity was expected and the cost of the wastage incorporated into the standard unit pricing.
Why do the solar and wind systems expect to get paid for their “wastage” if they do not provide a operating reserve?
I suspect even if the power companies did not pay for the excess (grid export) from rooftop solar, such installations would still be “useful” for the roof top owner. But perhaps an incentive for the purchase of a battery?
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What are the criteria for success that underpin the assertion that the assertion that Australia’s energy policies have been a success?
All I see are ever increasing cost of power to the consumers, and industries such as aluminium smelters having to switch off power at process critical times, incurring substantial operational costs, to avoid governments the embarassment of blacking out power to thousands of residents.
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How many foreign businesses are flooding into Australia to take advantage of that surplus energy? After all, those articles in financial newspapers surely have some basis in reality, don’t they?
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Thank f**k Jo is a contrarian. Otherwise we’d all blindly be accepting the pre-masticated slop that MSM presents as news when it comes to climate change. Blind faith in “The Science” is never going to cut it when you play on a blog where everyone employs critical thinking. Not everyone agrees all the time, but for the most part, they argue with conviction and provide links to back up their statements.
Speaking of links, The New York Times spells out a few home truths about financial big shots transitioning from climate change urgency to the need for energy to enable AI data centres. When renewables investments no longer made any sense, Larry Fink dropped the idea like a hot potato.
https://removepaywalls.com/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/climate/how-wall-street-turned-its-back-on-climate-change.html
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Pauline Hanson talked about restoring free markets.
I want to talk about kleptocracy – as described here:
Kleptocracy is a form of government where leaders exploit national resources for personal gain, often through corruption and theft. It is characterized by high-level officials using their power to enrich themselves at the expense of the public.
Nystar owners in Singapore are getting hand outs to keep their Australian operations going.
Tomago and its international owners have just been gifted energy to stay in operation.
The payments for ACCUs (Carbon units) is being ripped out of businesses in Australia (and their customers) then going to mostly Canadian owned businesses.
Dim Jim is setting up a CGT system where he decides who gets relief – all Labor parliamentarians first in line for relief.
Union backed Labor government in Victoria has syphoned billions to unions so they can pay their dues back to Labor. The same is now happening with Snowy Hydro 2. And the unions want a much stronger presence in the iron ore business.
Blackout now decides who gets guaranteed return on investment on energy infrastructure in secret deals never exposed to public scrutiny. Blackout has budgetted $155M for one year to throw about on his “climate” crusade.
The whole of the First Nations syphon keeps the well off better off.
And it did not start with the current Labor. Howard introduced the “renewable” energy theft. Turncoat is an unremorseful kleptomaniac.
How well does this description fit what Australia has become.
Australia is the perfect example of a kleptocracy. Even to the point of having its own propaganda arm spinning its lies and trying to shred anyone who calls out the lies. And they want more money for spinning the lies so well – what price their integrity. Look at those Getup criminals scampering when a few good people at the press club did not think their banner appropriate. But they will not be prosecuted.
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The charts and discussion refer to MW = power
Shouldn’t this be MWh = energy?
If so, whoever produces such charts should use the correct units as, apparently, we are following the ‘science’
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It is average MW over the quarter. If you work out how many hours in each quarter, you can determine the potential energy that was not used.
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Rick
You have to work it out, because publishing the number would prove the stupidity of the whole process.
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As well is that a “calendar quarter” or a “fiscal quarter”?
And in the latter case, what is the fiscal year?
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As I often do I went to grok. It came up with an explanation I had not seen before.
There are multiple competing money streams.
The negative prices do not mean the producer is making a loss. They are in fact still paid to produce. That amount allows them to pay for the grid to take their production and still make a profit. It is only when they have to pay more to the grid than they are paid to produce that they will stop producing. And there are costs with stopping and starting production.
A snippet from grok…
Real-World Examples
In California and Australia, solar farms have accepted negative prices because combined revenues (market + incentives) stayed positive.
In Germany, fixed subsidies historically encouraged overproduction during negative periods; reforms now encourage curtailment or storage.
Farms often bid negative prices strategically to ensure dispatch while capturing other revenues.
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I’m smelling the rank odour of ‘guaranteed returns’.
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Yes, but the renewable zealots will just say this is the reason we need more batteries. Or, why SH2 is required. To store all that wasted electricity. Dumb question – where does all that excess electricity go? Dumped in a river somewhere? Released to the air? Where? Asking for a friend. 🙂
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Yes. But these Batteries cannot store the electrons like a Dam can store water. For years if need be. You know what I mean.
Someone please tell BlackoutBowen.
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This is one of the few times they’d actually be correct in their ranting.
Yes, since the dopes in charge have promoted and incentivized Rooftop solar, utility scale solar and wind turbines while ignoring the fact these systems aren’t dispatchable or readily controllable, they belatedly realised batteries and pumped hydro “batteries” were needed to store the excess for when it’s actually required by the pubic.
I’m not sure if or when they’ll realise they still need frequency control and stabilisation which is automatically provided for free by the rotating mass of traditional coal and gas turbines spinning at a set 3000 RPM.
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I assume that Howard’s RET Renewable Energy(Electricity) Act 2001 is still running. So that 40% total waste is still billed to the consumers and is paid to the producers. All they have to do is produce green electrons and they get paid in Green Coupons(cash), even if no one uses them. If they are sold, they get paid again. This is all (illegally) done by the Electricity Retailers who are forced to pay fines for using ‘non renewables’ and this cash goes to the Windmills and solar panels for production whether it is sold or not. Lovely to get paid twice.
Of course this forces the cost of eletricity up. Cash for nothing. That’s NOT a subsidy. It’s always been theft.
It’s why the whole scale is prima facie illegal. Being forced to pay friends of the government/King for nothing at all has been beyond British government power since Magna Carta.
In fact so many laws passed are illegal. In the US you can challenge to the Supreme Court and this is often done. Illegal laws like Roe vs Wade(1973) we finally stuck down recently. As in Australia, health and education and mineral rights are State controlled, not Federal. It is a major reason why Canberra wants ‘renewables’ as Canberra can control all of Australia’s energy. Something which was not in the constitution and which has passed ultimate power, like income tax and GST to the Federal government. And the PM can order Australia shut down, a new emperor.
If you pictured politicians as feathering their own nests with our hard work, you would be very close to the truth. Power and cash. As we have seen in the last budget, you are a fool to believe what the PM said. He has made that clear. “We tell them what they want to hear and when we get power, we do what we like” is now the Mantra of all politicians except Hanson.
Green energy is a lie. Mandated Green carbon credits are a lie (Howard, 2001) (Gillard 2011). CO2 tax has no basis in science (Safeguard Mechanism 2022). Our politicians are in control and out of control.
THere will be no Carbon Tax in a government I lead is the biggest lie. And Howard is outrageous enough to say he is ‘agnostic’ on Climate Change.
Australia is now $2.2 Million Million in debt. And over $200Billion per annum is unfunded and does not even go through parliament. We have no government. Just robber Barons.
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And governments are hiring like crazy to cover up rocketing unemployment. 250,000 jobs lost Nationally in May alone. 90% of new jobs in Victoria are in the public service. And of course they vote for the people who hired them. It means rocketing inflation and then rocketing interest rates and a vast increase in taxes on everything that moves. And anything that doesn’t. Jewellery, paintings, watches, shares, houses, savings, superannuation, capital gains, , realised or not. They are going to tax what is in the drawers and on the walls of your house. To pay for Climate Change prevention and for Chris Bowen to travel first clas around the world telling people they must all pay more to prevent Climate Change. China, India, US, Russia, Africa, South America, Pacific Island are all exempt however.
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Current LGC price is $5/MWh. That is not significant compared with current wholesale price.
It is the reason the wholesale price does not go as negative as it used to do.
Grid scale “renewables” are already past peak income extractable through electricity bills. That is why Blackout has his secret deals. These are literally money for nothing other than buying junk in China and mounting it on Australia farmland. It is now illusional from the perspective of generating revenue from electricity. That is at a dead end. Australia’s poor have given all they can give.
Retail cost of electricity is not going to come down but fewer have the full exposure to increases because they have solar and battery.
So the burden now has to fall on taxpayers and that means there will be fewer taxpayers paying more. It is a perfect kleptocracy where everyone works for who the government favours. They favour themselves and China most. The next generation of Australia workers will be supporting both Australian and Chinese retirees. A growing burden.
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RickWill you should look up the way they establish the wholesale spot price for electricity. Many tender $0 or less for their electricity but but receive much more in the end. Page 2 this article
https:/www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content//Five-Minute-Settlement-directions-paper-fact-sheet-FINAL.PDF
John
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Spectator advises how the Act changed …
https://www.spectator.com.au/2024/01/20-years-since-john-howards-renewable-energy-policy/
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Our electricity generation is a fraction of our Aussie energy statistics.
Here’s total Aussie energy stats charts from 1983 to 2024 and at least 93% of our energy production are from fossil fuels.
Our electricity generation from so called renewables is that tiny green sliver at the top of the chart.
But at the cost of thousands of klms destroyed + farmland + birds and Koalas etc destroyed as well and then replaced every 15 to 20 years.
And zero change to the weather or climate by 2100 and beyond.
https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/data-charts/australian-energy-production-fuel-type
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Adding that most of the electricity supply in Australia away from the coastal strip and into the central districts is from diesel fuelled generators, there are road trains of fuel tankers on the roads constantly, long distance and local areas.
The replacement I believe will be micro nuclear reactor generators, the reduction in diesel fuel supply demand and transportation will be substantial.
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I’m surprised the crypto miners aren’t buying up the surplus when the wholesale “price” turns negative.
Maybe they had difficulties getting permits from yhe mining unions.
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Real simple solution:
Waste a few BILLION/TRILLION dollars on batteries and stick rate payers with the bill, then blame it on Trump.
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