By Jo Nova
This is the state of national energy debate in Australia — preschooler taunts
The Nationals have finally decided to dump the Net Zero target (an excellent step*). In reply, Chris Bowen, the Minister of Electricity and Weather, could have reeled off all the countries with unreliable energy that are building aluminum smelters, except there aren’t any. He could have dazzled us with talk of terrawatt-hours, or fantasy hydrogen tankers that are just around the corner, but no one believes that any more — so he just went for dinosaur joke he heard in Grade two.
Mr Smug, Chris Bowen:
“The old National Party — deciding whether the Earth is flat, and whether the Earth rotates around the sun, or visa versa in 2025. Like get with the program…”
Effectively the Energy Minister has nothing at all, so he’s calling the National Party stupid like a rock. He hopes you don’t notice. It’s a cheap childish trick, but hey, it fooled the ABC. They were so impressed with his sneering condescension, they played it on the nightly news on Saturday night and introduced this wit as “standing firm on policy”, as if he said something meaningful.
Most of the climate change debate is a bluff. It has always been that way.
When an impertinent sod asks a hard question, the believers launch into a scathing pantomine — calling them deniers, or mocking them as lizard-brain flat-Earthers. It’s a rhetorical trick that implies the answer is so bleeding obvious, and the questioner is so stupid, they don’t even need to answer the question. When done well, the debate is won before it even starts. And onlookers learn that they don’t want to ask questions like that. It’s just a form of bullying.
What’s really extraordinary is the ABC didn’t recognise how silly this makes Bowen look. They usually work as the Labor-Green promotion team, so they must have thought this was not A-Grade moral-preening, but something impressive. Scary.
It will be a great day when we see the opposition mock Bowen (and the ABC) for this unprofessional petty behaviour.
Namecalling only works until someone calls it out. Make them pay.
If anyone wants to see the context, here’s the 40 second segment.
*The Nationals leader, David Littleproud, sadly, is still pandering to the “We Believe In Climate Change” crowd, which is a shame, because it will deprive The Nationals of their best points and funniest lines, but in order to get to the Land of Sensible, they have to get over the Net Zero bridge, so it’s a significant win, and may yet drag the Liberals over the line, or split them.
A week long blackout in his electorate and the ACT would wipe the smirk off his face.
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The power & lights went off in the Parliment House during the afternoon yesterday.
Leading to immediate calls of “where’s Bowen”
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One Nationals could take on the Green ALP and win.
The current LNP has little hope.
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Week long blackout? Coal failed.
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In 1978, Jim Jones enforced ‘Flavor Aid’ onto his followers
In 2025, Chris Bowen enforces ‘Cool Aid’ onto the Australian Public
.
History repeating itself…
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There is a difference between being pig ignorant, ignorant and plain stupid. Ignorant you are when you don’t know something. Pig ignorant when you don’t even know you are ignorant. Stupid you are when you ought to know you are ignorant but refuse to inform yourself.
Methinks Mr Bowen ticks al three boxes.
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“Yes Minister”?
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I do not put this down to ignorance.
This government is doing exactly what their Marxist mentors trained them to do.
That is, destroying capital.
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net zero is treason
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“Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up!”
The mantra of so many of my willfully ignorant kinfolk. I don’t believe I need to identify their political preference.
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I can understand that the Nationals are taking small steps. It is political. They don’t want to frighten the horses in the Liberal stable. OTOH Pauline has just laid her cards on the table and is reaping the rewards, 15% and an invite to Mar-a-Largo. I agree that when they are all on board they can attack Labor more effectively. The pay off will come quickly and Bowen will be apoplectic. I imagine there will be fewer renewable projects as the fear of losing mandates and subsidies loom larger.
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Black-Out Bowen is standing on the seashore commanding the waves not to crash on to him.
Dressed in his MAGIC clothes.
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Any Liberal who thinks Net Zero is Fairyland Fantasy – leave the Labor Lite Ley Turnbull Acoltyes and join the National Party
Nationals,
need to liaise with One Nation, Advance Australia, All Conservative Groups, etc and all of them run Candidates in all Local/State/Federal Elections across Australia, and strategise together (With a Top Maths Statistician) to plan Preference Swaps that benefit all of you, and Defeat Greens & TEALs preferences to Labor
Best Statistical Method: Multi-Level Regression with Post-Stratification (MRP)
MRP is currently the gold standard for estimating preference flows and 2PP outcomes in Australian federal elections.
It combines large-scale survey data with demographic and electoral data to produce seat-level estimates.
How MRP Works: Survey Data Collection: A large national sample (e.g., 38,000+ respondents) is gathered.
Multi-Level Regression: Models voter behavior based on individual characteristics (age, education, location, past vote).
Post-Stratification: Adjusts results using census data to reflect the actual demographic composition of each electorate.
Preference Flow Simulation: Simulates how preferences will flow in each seat based on both stated voter intentions and historical patterns.
This approach accounts for: Regional variation in preference flows Changes in voter behavior over time The impact of local candidates and issues
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Sometimes it’s better just to be clear and honest and let the preferences fall however they fall. A clear message that Net Zero is over and that the market will work for consumers not against them should be enough. Obviously preferences will go to parties with the closest policies, but there’s no need to annoy people by playing statistical games.
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Net zero not over just ask the ABC.
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This is why simpletons like Chrissie Bowen shouldn’t be allowed to make scientific or engineering decisions.
And when a Leftist calls a rational-thinking person something bad, it’s usually what psychologists call “projection”, “a defence mechanism where individuals unconsciously attribute their own unacceptable thoughts, feelings, or impulses to another person”. E.g. when they call you a “racist”, “stone age”, “science denier”, “***phobe” or any of the usual standard Leftist ad homs.
As for Chrissie accusing the Nationals of thinking the earth is flat or not knowing it “rotates” around the sun (those who tell him what to say and think must mean “orbits”, it rotates upon its own axis), I think those statements were added by his speech writer, it’s doubtful that his scientific knowledge extends beyond that of a two year old child although even that is doubtful because even they can draw conclusions based upon observation, cause and effect.
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There are few instances in modern human history where profoundly scientifically and engineeringly ignorant people such as typical politicians (and those who tell them what to think) have been allowed to get away with extremely expensive and people and economy-destroying decisions without effective oversight or scrutiny.
One such example is Australia as applied to both the mismanagement of covid and the mismanagement of our energy supply (and many other areas).
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And when all else fails we’ll have a war!
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The old adage of “ follow the money “ needs to be urgently followed up by someone with a better understanding of the disaster into which we are headed .
Let’s follow that money;-
Over the last 25 years politicians on both sides have been spending tax $$$$ freely, attending meetings, conferences & general parties where eating, drinking, much back slapping & denigration of “ deniers “ is on the main menu.
The propaganda machines are not cheap either, positioned in schools, universities, numerous NGOs,.
We haven’t yet got around to the solar panels, wind turbines, tidal generation, EV tax breaks, EV charging stations, HYDROGEN, batteries that burned out, Snowy 2 the biggest phurphy of all & the SUBSIDIES THAT CONTINUE TO DRAIN THE ECONOMY. Let’s not forget the power stations that have been reduced to rubble or sold off for $2.00 to some billionaire!I could go on but we don’t you all in tears as the reality sinks in.
If anyone has the resources, public or private let’s get the total $$$ flushed down the toilet
& compare that total to what could’ve been achieved with maintenance to existing station, upgrading stations to HELE specifications and maybe a nuclear station or 2.
Most important make the findings public. Let’s not forget that all the unreliables will have to be replaced within 10 years or so in any event..so where to now???
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Don’t criticise those two “billionaires” who purchased Vales Point for $2, or was it$1?
The purpose of that deal was to save the government the cost of demolishing it.
Instead of demolition it has remained in service generating some of our cheapest power.
Where would we be without it?
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Bown sure put a lot of thought into that retort.
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According to their ABC this morning Bowen’s latest lunacy is to allow free electricity for a few hours in the middle of the day.
You won’t need solar panels it’ll be free for every home, so the taxpayer will be slugged and the debt will continue to pile up.
Why can’t they just follow the real data for a change, after first testing themselves against the co2 Coalition Scientist’s quiz and save us decades of time and more WASTED TRILLIONs of dollars?
IOW shouldn’t we first follow the accurate data and only use BASELOAD energy and ensure we win back our national security for 24/7/365?
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RickWill has mentioned the massive excess of midday electricity due to solar panels.
So this is basically a load dump to incentivise people to buy subsidised batteries.
Back in the day, the effective load dump to keep real power stations running at maximum load 24/7 was something useful like off peak water heating or aluminium smelting.
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Batteries and Smart Meters required!
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Sounds like a “Trojan Horse”to me to achieve some backhanded agenda .The electricity component of the bill is the smallest part of my total electricity bill!
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No – it is too far back. There is now a shortage of low cost dispatchable generation. At least until all the smelters are gone.
The sensible way back –
Ditch all climate baggage – everything – dump anything tied up with carbon accounting and all the BS.
Change NEM bidding interval to at least 24 hour and only permit dispatchable generators to bid.
Encourage household batteries to soak up excess solar to help stabilise the grid and increase the opportunity for low cost coal generators to run close to capacity.
If there were enough batteries in the system, there would be no need to run gas for peak lopping. So both rooftop solar and household batteries become valuable grid assets rather than the path to grid destruction.
Right now, with the present NEM bidding system, every new rooftop solar and battery installation helps destruction of the grid. But that would change immediately if the bidding system was changed and batteries encouraged.
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Rick, the problem with that idea is that RT solar and all those domestic batteries, are NOT connected to the grid !
As we have concluded several times , all domestic solar and batteries are confined to their local distribution network with no ability to “feed back” into the grid distribution main HV system in order to be used nationally.
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Utter rubbish. South Australia exported rooftop solar to Victoria most days last week. Even coal fired generators do not generate at transmission voltage. The distributors have been working on getting power back up the grid for the last decade. Why do you think the margin between wholesale and retail keeps widening.
Origin made me an offer of $1/kWh to use my battery when they wanted so they could get power up the grid. That is what the Virtual Private Power plant rules are trying to encourage.
The batteries reduce the evening peak by serving the internal demand and up the grid if households permit it (I will not be) Most days last week I did not draw power from the grid. If I did, it was from late evening or early morning after the battery cut out.
You are still thinking in terms of there being industry. The biggest industry in Australia will be Amazon shipping centres and super market cold stores. All could have their own rooftop solar and basement batteries. That will always be lower cost than having remote solar and wind farms with all their transmission lines. Make electricity on site for use on site.
Without industry, there is no justification for a high power grid. The whole country could be run from rooftops with a bit of gas to cover the dull days.
Australia is well on the way to de-industrialisation. Two more years with Sleezy and Blackout should have it done. All smelters gone. Unloved and unwanted.
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I think you are ignoring the need for energy reliability, particularly for emergency services and hospitals. And there are home situations where folks require power 24/7 for medical reasons. The stated AEMO electricity reliability is 99.998%, and I very much doubt that the systems you are promoting will provide that level of reliability.
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You can think what you like but don’t make things up about things you think I am ignoring..
Hospitals rely on diesel back up. If your life depended on it you would not depend on any electricity grid.
The most reliable source of electricity is local generation because transmission is always the weak link.
I am not proposing scrapping the grid. The current policies make the grid uneconomic and it only serves to interconnect low intensity users.
I am proposing to stop adding wind and solar farms. I am also proposing to better utilise existing coal and encourage the upgrading of existing coal generators. Victoria should be the main powerhouse of the country. It gets the biggest bang for every dollar spent on generation and lignite mining. Heaps more CO2 than the black stuff. Try to get Australia up to a net producer of CO2 rather than a sink.
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There ARE situations where folks are at home and for medical reasons, almost reliant on a reliable electricity source. Often they are a short-term backup, but they still rely on having continuous power. So please don’t dismiss this critical requirement as it does exist.
I am in full agreement with you regarding large-scale wind and solar systems, and the need to add more baseline power.
But I would be concerned if a salesperson turned up and suggested to me that I don’t need a grid connection.
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It’s really rather simple. If people with batteries are forced to support the grid, the government will abuse their power in order to shaft them, and battery sales will dry up. If people are made VPP offers or similar which they are free to accept or refuse, then this might help while the system as a whole is being fixed. Long term, let the market resolve how batteries contribute – or not.
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With respect Rick, …what data are you basing that belief on ?
We dont even know how much RT solar is actually being generated on any day… it is all estimated ( at best i would suggest +-10%).. let alone how it is distributed once any of it is fed back past the meters !
It would be interesting to see the data for how much is actually fed back from the domestic meters, ….does anyone collate that data.?
You know full well main grid source generators , coal , gas, wind, or solar, are a very different situation to low voltage domestic solar at the consumer end or the grid.
Are you suggesting that all single phase , 240 volt, distribution systems have the capability to feed back through the substations and up to the 330-500kV grid network ?
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I am not suggesting it. I am watching it happen every day of every week right across Australia.
SA knows that it does not need to generate grid sourced power for the State. Idling a gas plant is a safeguard.
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=7d&interval=30m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
Put the curser on noon 29 Oct. You will see Rooftop 1848MW. SA net demand 1836MW. Rooftops are pumping out more than the state demand. Grid solar, wind and gas were all being exported. Gas was 65MW, wind was 121MW and grid solar 370MW.
There is no problem transmitting rooftop solar from SA to Victoria.
I did an article on Australian transition to rooftop solar/battery and de-industrialisation for WUWT:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/18/australias-energy-transition-de-industrialisation/
The problem facing Australia is that rooftops and household batteries are not going to run smelters. The roofs/batteries will be pushed to cover their own needs and service industry.
I worked out it would cost $18bn at current prices to build a 1GW solar/battery farm just to run Tomago. Coal power is a lot cheaper.
Even unsubsidised rooftop solar and battery are competitive with grid power now. And every additional rooftop takes away wholesale demand so rising costs across falling demand.
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Not very convincing.. !
the 1848 MW from RT solar is unmetered and at best an estimate ( so -+ 10% or 185 MW), and you are suggesting that the 12 MW possible surplus was included in the 500+ MW total exported to Vic ?
There is no way of confirming the RT solar was exported,…. or even if there was actually surplus RT solar
Wind and gas surplus are prime grid source generators, so easy to redirect for export,…but all the evidence is that RT solar does not work its way back up to transmission level voltages.
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it is not possible to convert the 240/415v local house to house connections to go back into the 33kv line at the end of the street, the transformers on the poles are not bi-directional. All rooftop solar does is feed the neighbours without a solar system and once that is full their invertors shut down as the voltage hits the limit. Rooftop solar does not and can never feed into the wider grid it just reduces the demand locally so any commercial renewables can be exported (or more likely curtailed).
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..i certainly hope we will still have an industrial base, you underestimate the many thousands of smaller undustries that go unnoticed behind the Amazons of today.
But you should not ignor the “commercial” consumers in the cities, not just the cold stores and shops, but the large office towers , Data centers ,transport systems, Schools, and Universities, utility services like water and sewerage, even street lighting. Without afunctional grid , society as we know it will collapse.
None of those could rely on weather dependent, / seasonal power generation
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All the small commercial businesses have roofs and are quite capable of making their own power using their roof space. Most hospitals have car parks that can be converted into solar generators.
On present setting all heavy industry is shot.
I do not know if Trump has good advisers but he can see where the USA is heading and has stopped the demise. Australia remains in full de-industrialisation mode.
The only way back is for One Nation to gain power or LNP to grow up. Labor are clearly happy to see Australia a basket case.
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Chrissie Bowen seems to be unusually obsessed with this insanity, even for a Leftist politician.
It’s as though this modern Socialist is executing the last command of the National Socialists, the Nerobefehl, (Nero Decree), to destroy all infrastructure which is essentially what ruinables does whilst pretending to build something.
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Quick, someone give BOB a violin because his fiddle is sounding more like a cat that prematurely donated the strings
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I believe in God. That makes me a religious man. I demanded proof from Him, and received it – but I won’t share that here, as it won’t look like Science to others and I’m ok saying I live in Faith. I also demand proof from believers of Climate Change. They are unable to deliver the Experiment that Science requires, proving that CO2 is the sole cause of modern warming, and that the warming is dangerous.
“I believe in Climate Change” is the most farcical, unscientific statement in the Universe. It SHOULD be mocked.
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While the Earth continues to circle the sun at approximately 29,784.6 meters per second (m/s), which is equivalent to about 107,225 kilometers per hour. I think we’re safe from any outside intervention
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POTUS Trump is living proof that there is a higher power.
Pauline Hanson and Gina Rinehart were among his guests at Halloween Celebration of saints – Pauline may well be anointed. What a force with Gina Rinehart backing her and Trump offering advice, encouragement and support. Their ABC would be apoplectic – literally unable to function the rage would be so intense.
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Pauline Hanson and Gina Rinehart were among his guests at Halloween Celebration of saints – Pauline may well be anointed.
What a force with Gina Rinehart backing her and Trump offering advice, encouragement and support.
Their ABC would be apoplectic – literally unable to function the rage would be so intense.
Nationals,
time for all Conservative Parties to work together (keeping your own separate identities) and start leveraging the above
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There is no way back for Labor. They have latched on to a scam that is fast unravelling. They are digging an ever deeper hole that they are unlikely to recover from.
Australian Labor is now at the forefront of the scam. The whole pile of poo can no longer be made to look anything but a stinking mess. And Labor are buried in it.
The only way Australia can save industry is to lower electricity prices on the grid and that can only start when all bidding generators are dispatchable at their rated capacity.
All climate baggage has to be discarded – and quick.
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This is why the Left (that includes most Liberals, the so-called “moderates”) are pursuing ever more censorship and “misinformation” legislation.
They want to shut down all alternative sources of pro-science information.
And with the social media ban for under 16’s younger Australians will be shut out from any alternative opinions on “renewables” and everything else. They will only have access to the Government-approved indoctrination they get at “school”.
On top of that, the Left wants to lower the voting age to 16 so that these sadly indoctrinated children can vote, thus effectively embedding Labor and the Left in general in Government forever.
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Sadly there is NEVER a real question to any of the pushers of this nonsense. Why can’t the opposition, either in question time or on the media ask the simple questions and demand answers.
1/ Name a wind factory ANYWHERE in the world that runs at more than 40% capacity.
2/ Ask how solar panels can provide power at night.
3/ How many and how large will batteries to run Sydney or Melbourne in their entirety ( including industry ) need to be.
4/ What is the current footprint including distribution lines for the current system versus the footprint for wind and solar.
5/ Why haven’t power prices come down as promised. This should be hammered and hammered every time Bowen opens his mouth.
No, never ask a hard question its simply to hard!
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Reality prevails.
Trump has given reality a helping hand. Pauline being amongst his halloween dinner guests is about as close as we could see to her being anointed to be his Australian disciple. We can only hope. Trump makes people better. He even had KRudd reflecting on his past bad choices a week or two back.
Trump is now working globally to eradicate the global socialist rot.
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Question time is a farce in that the respondents never answer the question asked.
This is politics 101
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True. Don’t rely on hard questions because to a politician there are no hard answers. Just pump hard facts.
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He has lost, and he knows it.
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Off topic sort of but it does refer to the UK equivalent of your ABC. The BBC has been caught splicing together different parts of Donald Trump’s speech on Jan 6 to make it look like he incited a riot at the Capital for broadcast on Panorama prior to the election. It will be a cold day in Hell before the BBC covers the involvement of FBI operatives in the crowd on Jan 6 or the evil Pelosi refusing the offer of National Guard units.
[BBC / ABC brothers in arms for The Blob. – Jo]
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Ship deserting rats! (see todays Spooner) That’s a new one! Bang on cue the Australian Minister for poverty and exclusion, Chris Bowen, says that due to an excess of solar power at midday he will compel Electricity Wholesalers to give it back to households free of charge. That still means non solar households are subsidising the collectors of a useless resource. The law of ever decreasing circles will eventually see RTS disappear into a fundamental orifice
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B O Bowen, Labor, Greens and Teals ere really stupid and believe they can destroy the eastern Australian environment and the voters won’t care. But the Coalition must remind them every day and ask how our grid can increase by 100 times if we are relying on toxic, unreliable W & S and batteries?
The Renew Economy data states we must increase the grid from 30 tera bytes to 3,000 terabytes ASAP and the cost could be 9 TRILLION dollars.
But that delusional, UNRELIABLE 3000 terabyte grid would have to cover and destroy many more thousands klms of eastern Australia and then be replaced every 15 to 20 years.
How could anyone not understand Labor’s fairytale + the horrendous cost and an average return of just 24% CF for W and 15% CF for Solar?
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Sorry, terabytes should be terawatts in the above examples.
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Neville, and 3000 TW should be 3000 TW-hours. Giles Parkinson likely screwed up the units. And that study assumes we export most of the energy. Mythical fantasy written up with typo in units.
You may have missed my reply on October 9, 2025 at 3:05 pm .
From this Reneweconomy page: https://reneweconomy.com.au/net-zero-study-finds-australia-needs-nearly-three-terawatts-of-wind-and-solar/
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Young men seem to be picking up on the real facts about global warming. They seem to access alternative media sources more and more. Now if only we can stop the indoctrination that is occurring in the schools.
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Sadly, there are too many female teachers who are scientifically illiterate.
The bold young male students may begin to question the AGW narrative and be marked down as troublemakers.
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And drugged with Ritalin. The smart one will sell their Ritalin at raves or the truck stop.
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There was bloke who looked just like Chris Bowen, maybe a bit more than 10 years ago, who as immigration minister told us the boats couldn’t be turned around. Said stuff about push/ pull factors and so illegal migration to this country couldn’t be stopped. Basically, told a pack of lies. But, my memory must be tricking me so it couldn’t be the same person.
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As shadow treasurer under Bill Shorten he told voters that if they didn’t like his idea of withholding franking credits from SMSFs then they shouldn’t vote for Labor. They didn’t and Bill Shorten lost the unlosable election. Bozo strikes again.
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Well,its nice to see them catching up with JoNova, at least they now admit that solar is destabilising the grid. It will just be part of the loss of freedom in our lives to suit the Greens, you are expected to heat your hot water, do your washing and charge your car in the middle of the day, not when it suits you. It seems to be aimed at a society where hardly anyone works..
“Power companies will be forced to offer three hours of free power in the middle of the day to all Australian households, under new regulations in force from next July aimed at soaking up the nation’s abundant daytime supply of solar power, helping to stabilise the grid and offering potential savings of hundreds of dollars to customers who opt in.”
SMH was quick to roll out the propaganda of course..
“Power bills have risen chiefly because of rising fossil fuel prices, as well as the cost of running Australia’s ageing fleet of coal-fired power plants, and because of a tardy rollout of wind farms.”
Although they admitted the cost of directly giving money away-
“The state and federal power bill subsidies… cost to federal taxpayers since they began in 2023 has hit $5 billion.”
Too bad you can’t run smelters for just three hours a day..
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Wow, I’ve purposely not read the Melbourne Age for a long time. The SMH are in the same media company and that article is just gobsmacking. The fact they just almost repeat the Labor mantra verbatim is really scary.
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Australia’s ageing coal fleet includes the Victorian brown coal burners which pump out 24/7 electricity for 3 cents a kWh. The average cost of coal power is about $30 a MWh whereas wind is nearer $175 I believe. Correct me if I am wrong. The SMH and Age never go into details unless it’s to tell their dwindling readers that the Coalition nuclear plan will cost $600 billion, another Labor lie. A coal plan will be ridiculously cheap by comparison won’t it?
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Plenty of name calling going on here, why the pearl clutching?.
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Pot calling kettle a blaggard, fair point. You have wandered into the grey zone of the information war, mind how you go.
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I’m sorry but I should clear up my second comment this morning.
Australia will need 3 terawatts or 3000 gigawatts of W & S + batteries by 2030 to reach Labor’s net zero by 2030. IOW mission impossible.
Here’s the Renew Economy’s quote again—-
“Australia will need nearly three terrawatts, or 3,000 gigawatts, of wind and solar if it is to meet its goal of a net zero economy by 2030, a plan that could cost up to $9 trillion, according to a new study.”
“The astonishing numbers are revealed in a new report – Net Zero Australia – put together by Melbourne University, the University of Queensland, and the Nous Group, and released on Wednesday”.
“To put the 3,000 gigawatts of wind and solar in some context, Australia currently only has about 30GW of large scale wind and solar across the country. So it has a lot to do”.
[Please see my reply above Neville. I think Reneweconomy got TW mixed up with TWh. – Jo]
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Nope – the load is disappearing. All smelters will be gone by 2030 on the present trend. The actual average grid demand peaked in 2008. It has been declining since.
Rooftops in SA have only been going in for a decade and they are now nudging 40% of the supply on a daily basis. A lot of the rooftop capacity is under utilised because it is being automatically curtailed. Household batteries will make better use of the installed solar.
So Australia is rapidly heading toward complete de-industrialisation and running off rooftops. No industry, no science, no engineering.
There is no point building any more grid scale solar or wind because they will have no demand to serve as rooftops take over. The only source of generation that can grow is rooftops. Go to page 8 and look at Figure 3 in latest AEMO report for proof of this statement:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2025/qed-q3-2025.pdf?rev=7436be91333e4603bc59158b0bf095a1&sc_lang=en
And there is no way of operating the grid without essential generators fuelled by coal and gas.
There will be no need for anything other than around 100GW of rooftop solar. Currently about 30% there. Double that if electric vehicles become useful.
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Rick Will, are you in the household Solar sales/installation business?
The link you refer too is only showing 2831 average MW out of 25,154 MW, hardly a large percentage of the supply.
Rooftop solar is what is ruining the grid system with it’s uncontrollable daytime output and providing little to nothing in the peak demand times.
We’d be better off stopping all subsidies for rooftop solar and household batteries and keeping the utility solar and batteries.
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It is not the values that you have to lfocus on but the directions and over the short time. It took grid scale generators in Australia about 100 years to reach the peak they set in 2008. Rooftops have reduced grid scale generators to noon demand of 10GW in a decade. This variability destroys the economics of baseload generators.
I represented large consumers on the first National Grid Systems Group. That was in the early 1990s and we enjoyed reduced power prices for the next decade until the consumer theft was introduced and intermittence allowed to connect to the grid.
The grid is now stuffed. And the more rooftops that get connected the faster that will be clear to everyone. I forecast it in my submission to the Finkel enquiry.
It is the speed of rooftop killing dispatchable generation that should be a concern for every Australian. It guarantees de-industrialisation that is now apparent to many.
No – I am not representing any solar seller, But I do encourage everyone who can to install solar and battery to reduce their costs while forcing the grid operators to make sensible economic decisions.
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“The Climate Change Authority cautions against abandoning 2050 as the target time for reaching carbon neutrality. Having a firm goal that catalyses and co-ordinates action by communities, businesses and governments – at home and abroad – will deliver a lower-cost decarbonisation of our economies than mere “aspirations” to act… (voters) understood the national interests are best served by building sustainable industries that can – indeed, must – replace coal and gas exports…With Australia’s abundant renewable energy resources, we will have few rivals when it comes to attracting companies that can make steel, aluminium, ammonia and even silicon without relying on fossil fuels.”
LoL!! Talk about lies and impossible dreams! But wait, there’s more..
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which pulls together the world’s best climate science”
“I defy anyone to read the government’s recently published National Climate Risk Assessment without taking away some sobering questions.”
Accidentally, he prints a line of truth..
“So when you hear politicians opposing “net zero at any cost”, ask yourself what level of cost you’re prepared to bear if we and other nations rip up the Paris pact. Because ultimately, the physics of the atmosphere will ignore the antics and atmospherics of politicians.”
But not a word at all about China’s emissions or the total non-effect of Australia decarbonising.
The Nats have obviously terrified the alarmists so the propaganda will be thick and fast for the next few weeks!
“Matt Kean is chair of the Climate Change Authority.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/physics-of-the-atmosphere-will-ignore-atmospherics-of-australian-politicians-20251103-p5n79f.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true
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Another low integrity individual whose income depends on perpetuating a scam. A business degree – about as well qualified to know anything about climate as Blackout and Sleezy.
If he had a clue about atmospheric physics he would know that CO2 has no direct influence on the radiation energy balance on Earth. The models are wrong. Manabe was out of his depth. The IPCC know its wrong but hide the evidence:
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.think-israel.org%2Fjan18pix%2Fchristy.figure5.png&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=61680d9e2947073fb57adb78d35d9235f4044bfc5962a678bfc9e341dcf63ac0
This very important chart was buried in AR5. It is an issue I have raised with CSIRO numerous times and they just say their model is middle of the road. Not right or wrong but “middle of the road”. When was science ever “middle of the road”.
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History will record that the propaganda was relentless, nevertheless we have a problem.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2025_v6.1_20x9-scaled.jpg
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He who casts the first slur, loses the argument.
Bowen is a professional at this.
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Pete of Perth
Our politicians and public servants will never run out of electricity or water. Hydro power stations (Snowy Mts Scheme) are just over the hill and water supply dams are many including Cotter, Bendora, Corin, and Googong.
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Pumped hydro systems aren’t much use in a country that is mostly flat and doesn’t have much water. At best, Snowy 2 will only backup 10% of the National grid. For its eventual cost, we could have built a lot of coal, gas or nuclear power stations.
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Not even 10% G4,
SN2 has a max output generation of 2200 MW….and likely loses some of that before it reaches its usage points.
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The only reason I say 10% is that I don’t know what the average power draw for the National Grid is. But I agree with you, in that it won’t even reach that figure most of the time. I also see where folks have suggested that SN2 cannot even supply 2200MW, mainly due to storage differences between the two reservoirs.
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The true absurdity is that Australia has a Minister for Climate Change and Energy.
It’s a fantasy to think humans can control the climate.
Although to be honest, it you depend up on solar and Wind to make a Net Zero grid, it will also be a fantasy to think the minister can control energy.
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You know the LNP have lost it when they have a shadow minister of the same title.
Stop the scam.
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Minister for fantasies and hoaxes.
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So RW what do you think Australia will look like if we have no BASELOAD energy in our future?
No heavy industry for defense and no smelters or foundries, steel industries, new wonder plastics etc.
What will our economy look like by 2040 or 2060?
Can we build more W & S Farms + batteries and at what cost and how many jobs will these toxic disasters create after we close down all Coal, Gas generation etc?
Then tell us what this weak Aussie economy will look like running on rooftop solar and batteries?
Most of the Labor, Greens and Teals voters will probably be happy to stop all Coal, Gas and Iron ore exports. Then what do we live on?
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Baseload generation in Australia has all but gone now. It was as low as 7MW last week. The lowest demand in the wholesale market last quarter was 10GW but some of that would have been served by wind so actual baseload again around 7MW for the quarter and it is declining fast.
So what you see now gives a good clue of what no BASELOAD energy looks like. There will still be a need for essential generators fuelled from gas and coal because the peak grid demand continues to rise. It is unlikely there will be enough battery capacity to avoid the condition of all batteries being flat at some point in time. May be rare but cannot be ruled out. Solar stops every night and wind goes missing a couple of weeks every year. Likewise hydropower cannot be guaranteed in Australia.
Australia is becoming a service and events economy. Today in Melbourne a good example of that direction.
Victoria is angling on becoming China’s playground. Taking away some of the Chinese visitors from the Golf Coast. Casinos have been a solid drawcard for wealthy Chinese. Victoria – the gambling capital.
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BASELOAD, is the MINIMUM dispatchable generation required for daily supply.
In the past week it has never been below 16-18 GW ( 4 am) for the NEM.
Some of that will have been supplied by wind and hydro , but it is still the base load requirement.
On a windless night that would still need to be supplied by fossil fuels
The concept of renewables being considered part of base load requirement is wrong as they are not dispatchable or predictable.
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Coal was producing 7.4MW noon Saturday Nov 2. And 1.3GW was being used to charge batteries.
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
So actual BASELOAD was 6GW. Rooftop was producing 12.8GW at the same time. So twice as much rooftop as BASELOADF generation.
The minimum demand in the grid is nearly always at noon now – when solar is giving its best.
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Neville,
For years I have spread the scenario for Australia’s future as an economy dominated by barista Group A serving coffee to Group B before noon, then switching roles.
It is galling for me in my mid 80s to feel a mob of ignorant pollies using school kid logic and methods to overturn several hundred years of proof of the overwhelming benefits of free markets.
Geoff S
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The Coalition in Opposition should split climate from energy, with Canavan and Hastie the shadow ministers.
Angus Taylor (right faction) is in favour of dumping net zero, which is a plus, but he mustn’t become leader if Ley falls.
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A climate-change alarmist diatribe,
Give an over used cliched vibe,
Though tired and jaded,
Whose gloss has long faded,
They insist on the dull flat Earth jibe.
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💪💪💪 It’s Time
Time for conservatives of all parties unite to create a new Conservative Party.
Just like Menzies did.
United we stand, divided we fall.
Karma: Senator Price jumped ship after winning and then fell into the water. 😱🔥
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“The problem with the world is that the intelligent are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence” -Charles Bukowski.
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Seems like the deeper they go, the less likely recovery is possible.
I think the climate issue is just the patient zero of the cultural psychological collapse of the Western elite.
And the aspiring elite.
That can’t rise to elite due to overcrowding.
And the profession of elite becoming obsolete because the peasants discovered the fakery and no longer genuflect.
I just personally know so many people that aren’t going to be handle it if they are forced to realize Climate Change was grossly erroneous science … much less a hoax.
If aliens arrived and proved to us there was no God, it would have less impact than the intelligentsia being forced to understand and admit that all this was wrong.
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Australia voted themselves into this situation. Sad, but true.
Either vote out of the situation, or face the consequences of allowing the current situation to continue.
Reality has the final vote. An unsustainable grid, economy, jobs, lifestyle, etc, will ultimately collapse.
One may ignore reality, but one may not ignore the consequences of that choice. Good Luck.
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Sadly it takes time for the tide to turn as the US found in recent decades. Our complex and compulsory electoral system slows things down also.
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Graham 4
I should written “the original Snowy Scheme circa 1950’s to 1970’s” all which are just over the hill” (or close enough)!
[If you want to duplicate this at the right spot at #23, I’ll delete this one David. – Jo]
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I’ve seen Chris Bowen bahave like this in Parliament. I also used to see this sort of jeering, derisive behaviour during playground duty. This is pathetic from an MP who is paid a fabulous sum to responsibly discharge the challenging portfolio of Minister for Climate Change and Energy. Bowen’s derisive scoffing and sneering at the opposition during parlaiment leads me to the conclusion that he ranks poorly in emotional intelligence. Pehaps that’s the main reason why Australia’s energy economy is world class dunce.
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“… drag the Liberals over the line, or split them.”
Oh please god No! NO, NO, NO, NO, NO!
Nothing is surer to continue the rot more than a Liberal Party win in a Federal election.
It must be utterly destroyed and replaced with a movement of genuine conservative forces.
Matt Canavan please stand up!
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‘ … utterly destroyed and replaced with a movement of genuine conservative forces.’
Not so fast, there is going to be a debate on climate change and energy.
‘Fight not over yet: Liberal Party moderates go to war on net zero.
‘Moderate Liberals are warning Sussan Ley should not take their support for granted as they run an internal campaign to convince MPs the Coalition would be unelectable if it dumped net zero.’ (Oz)
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“drag liberals over the line” means drag them into making a decision about dumping Net Zero.
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Capital G for God. Proper noun 🙂
00
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Yes Chief…Christiana Figueres
and
the old ‘speaking revealingly’
trick.
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I’d really like to know who are his team of experts behind every announcement he makes. To be so cocky and sure of himself, that team must be a bunch of Gurus
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Shirley, major effort must now be invested to create an early Federal election. In practical reality of how it works these days, well-connected influencers with money have to show their hands with full page ads in The Australian.
I live on a pension so I am nearly useless. The best I can do is give such influencers scientific information they can trust.
Here is an example. Comments desperately sought from readers.
Geoff S
https://www.geoffstuff.com/halfwarm.docx
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Bowen is dumber than a rock…
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The real “flat earthers” or people with no brains willing to believe whatever rubbish they are thrown, are those who believe ancient people thought the world was flat.
Ancient people were of two sorts.
1. They didn’t care
2. Those who had been on the small boats at the time and had seen the curvature of the earth for themselves (which is relatively easy to see in a small boat traveling distances).
And, if anyone needed a model for the earth … they only had to look up at the sky where the moon was obviously a sphere.
The myth of the flat earth believing path was actually created quite recently in a book that made up a story about people going to the Americas not wanting to sail over the edge of the world. No one at the time believed that, but someone later thought inventing fake beliefs for the past would help sell their story.
So, in reality the real “flat earthers” who embarrass themselves is anyone who calls anyone else a “flat earther” because they themselves are pushing a fake story about the past.
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Did I miss the requirement of having to have time-of-day metering installed to complete Mr. Bowen’s “guidance”?
And what would be the cost of completing these installations?
And who would pay?
(OK last question is stupid. The customer ALWAYS pays in the end)
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And all of this stupidity is to ‘save the planet’ from ‘anthropogenic global warming/climate change’ being caused [supposedly] by increasing atmospheric ‘carbon [sic] pollution’ (by which the ‘believers’ mean the CO2 that all animal life breathes out).
There’s just one fact that has been (conveniently) ignored throughout the scam: CO2 is HEAVIER-than-air; so how can it be ‘floating up there’ trapping heat when the natural tendency is to go DOWN! And what does it do? Why, it ‘greens’ the planet by making plants grow.
(And yes, I know that there will be some CO2 ‘swirling around’ in the atmosphere, together with everything else, but the tendency must be to go DOWN. End of subject.)
P.S. If the ‘believing’ enthusiasts really want to ‘save the planet’ personally, then they should refrain from breathing out. Personal problem solved!
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A question for Bowen: What percentage of the atmosphere is Carbon Dioxide? Answer; 0.04%
Next question: CO2 is therefore a trace gas, can that possibly be the major driver of the climate?
Australia produces just 1.2% of that so is there any point in filling the land with windmills and solar panels?
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The current 2 Year ‘Regional’Solar-induced Orbiting Dry Cycle began at 50 degrees East Longitude (Madagascar,) circa August 1, 2024. The ‘vanguard'(with accompanying Temperature Rise,) will reach Australia in early January, 2026 – moving East to West at 15 Degrees of Longitude per 30 Day/Night Interval Month. The next Solar-induced Orbiting Dry Cycle will begin over 140 degrees East Longitude (West of Melbourne,)circa November 1, 2026. This will be a 1 Year ‘Minor’ Orbiting Dry Cycle that will not reach Australia’s East Coast directly – and will end over 40 degrees West Longitude(East Coast of Brazil,) in early November 2027.
For the Regional Cycles;
The Regional Dry Cycle begins at the Cycle Start/End Longitude, moving Westward at 15 degrees longitude per month.
16 months into the Cycle’s terrestrial progress, the X factor influence concludes in the Sun. (Cycle Shift Date.) The Regional Cycle Vanguard continues to move Westward through the remainder of its 360 degree track, (120 degrees, or 8 months at 15 d/month,) to finish at the Cycle Start/End Longitude, at the same time as the Cycle Shift.
Following the Cycle Shift start, the Regional Dry Cycle Vanguard is progressively ‘overtaken’ and replaced by the subsequent Wet/Normal Period status quo, at a rate of 45 degrees/month, as the Cycle Vanguard continues at 15 degrees/month toward the 24 month, 360 degree Start/End Longitude. Thus, the Regional Cycle Vanguard and the Regional Cycle Shift, arrive at the Cycle Start/End Longitude simultaneously. The Regional Cycle Shift start date of 16 months after the Cycle Start date, provides the 16 month Actual Terrestrial Footprint for the Regional Cycles.
For the Minor Cycles;
Flooding/Precipitation data indicates that, as with a Regional Dry Cycle, the Minor Dry Cycle begins at the Cycle Start Longitude, moving Westward at 15 degrees Longitude per month.
Differing from the Regional Cycle; Eight months into the terrestrial progress of the Minor Cycle, the X Factor influence concludes in the Sun. (Cycle Shift Date.) The Minor Cycle Vanguard continues to move Westward at 15 degrees/month, through the remainder of its duration, to finish at the Cycle End Longitude, at the same time as the Cycle Shift.
If a Minor Cycle Duration of 12 months is maintained – and the Cycle Shift Rate remains at 45 degrees/month, the Cycle Shift will ‘overtake’ the Cycle Vanguard 12 months into the Cycle Duration,
(provided the 8 month Cycle Shift Date is retained.)
There is no reason to believe (at this stage,) that the Shift Rate of 45 degrees/month does not apply for both Regional and Minor Cycles, so the Chronology will reflect this, until further specific revelations find otherwise.
Thus, (as it stands,) there is a 12 month, difference between the Duration Parameter of a Regional Cycle and that of a Minor Cycle.
The Regional Cycles have a Duration Length of 24 months, with an Actual Terrestrial Footprint of 16 months – while the Minor Cycles have a Duration Length of 12 months, with an Actual Terrestrial Footprint of 8 months.
Further research is required, to comprehensively determine the various correlations between the Minor Cycles in relation to the Regional Cycles – and the relationships of both these Cycles, with the X Factor influence and the dynamics of the Sun.
The Temperature/Precipitation Paradox;
As the expelled Solar Particles interact with and remove/convert Water Vapor Albedo in the Earth’s upper atmosphere – there is a resultant increase in temperature via the commensurate increase in Solar Energy reaching the Earth’s surface. This increase in temperature over the various land masses under the orbiting Dry Cycle Canopy, results in increased evaporation but reduced precipitation,(due to the reduced Water Vapor Albedo) over these areas, with the likely consequence of developing Drought conditions over these affected land masses.
However, the associated increase in temperature over various substantial water-bodies (Oceans/Seas/Lakes,) under the Dry Cycle Canopy, results in increased evaporation and precipitation tendencies over these areas as well. These resultant storm-prone regions, are especially significant near the Dry Cycle vanguard, which is moving East to West at half a degree of Longitude per Day/Night Interval – and confronts the prevailing weather patterns moving West to East (and towards the Poles,) due to the Earth’s Axial Spin. These ‘conflicting’ forces however, do not prevent the overall reduction in precipitation over land and water, that the Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle brings.
The Oceans certainly represent key factors in the transfer of temperature and precipitation around the globe – including the mechanisms of heat transfer and convection – though the primary instigator of Temperature and Precipitation control at the Earth’s surface, is the immutable Dry Cycle Frequencies over time, that result in expulsion of charged particles from the Sun, which in turn leads to the alteration/conversion of Water Vapor Albedo,(Reflectivity) in the upper atmosphere – and subsequent Temperature rises under the resultant Orbital Dry Cycle Canopy.
It should be noted that other sources of Albedo,(such as Sea and Land Ice, Ocean reflectivity, wind-blown dust and Volcanism,) also affect Temperature and Precipitation – and remain important factors in the overall ‘cooling’ of the climate.
(see ‘The influence of ‘Albedo’ on the ‘Dry’ Cycles’, p 129).
To slightly paraphrase Alex S. Gaddes,(p 63 );
‘Humankind has never known what it is to live outside an Ice Age – and probably never will’.
The current (2025) ‘update’ of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – 30years on…. is available as a free PDF from [email protected]
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