By Jo Nova
One third of all human emissions has had no effect on the Arctic
Since 2005, humans have emitted one third of all the emissions we’ve ever put out — some 600 billion tons of CO2. Yet the Arctic sea ice is the same as it was twenty years ago. And even though the modelers cling to the excuse that this is “consistent with simulated internal variability” there was not one model that forecast this would happen.
For twenty years arctic sea ice was the Posterchild of Panic, and on the verge of disappearing forever, while Antarctic sea ice was invisible. Now the sea ice at the South Pole is at “a climate tipping point”, and the northern sea-ice is just a surprise.
Even when sea ice does nothing, it’s dramatic:
As long as the buzzwords are there in the headlines, The Guardian readers may not even realize the scientists were completely, utterly wrong, and all the hand-wringing and tears about the polar bears was just a fundraising publicity stunt.
Remember, bad news is due to man-made climate change, but good news is a natural variation, and it’s only temporary. The Prophets of Climate say disaster is just around the corner still.
The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. …they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years.
It’s just how rampant Blob-media bias works, and the Blob-academics are fine with that.
This is what a dramatic surprise looks like:
It’s bad when the trend creeps up on you after doing the same thing for twenty years in a row.
Internal Variability is just the multifunctional excuse
There’s no climate force called “internal variability” — it is not hiding in a submarine trench, or riding a jet stream, it’s just the band-aid excuse modelers use when they should say “we don’t know” and “we were wrong”.
From the paper — They say the trend will definitely end soon, unless it doesn’t. The Experts are so under-confident now, they are buying another five or ten years of time, just in case the arctic doesn’t start melting soon:
Analysis of ensemble members that simulate analogs of the observed pause indicates that the current slowdown could plausibly persist another five to 10 years, although the chances of a faster‐than‐average decline are increased in the near‐future.
These people don’t even know what evidence is. The think simulations are evidence:
The modeling evidence suggests that internal variability has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent decades. Overall, this observed pause in Arctic sea ice decline is consistent with simulated internal variability superimposed on the long‐term trend according to the bulk of the climate modeling evidence
What they don’t say is that if the world is warming and the ice isn’t melting, then some other mysterious force they don’t understand must be keeping the sea-ice cooler. It could be solar magnetic forces, changing UV, shifting geothermal heat, cycles in ocean currents, or algal blooms that pump out cloud seeding aerosols. But if the modelers add these in, there might not be any room left to blame CO2.
If we had climate models that knew what those forces were – they might have seen this coming in 2005 instead of being surprised in 2025.
h/t Kenneth Richards at NoTricksZone, WattsUp, and Tallbloke.
POST NOTE: Another paper by other modelers who also have no clue…
Kenneth Richards at Notrickszone talks about different paper (Stern et al) who found a flat line in the minimum ice each year from 2007.
The fact that September Arctic SIE shows no trend during 2007–2024 may at first seem hard to explain. The Earth continues to warm, and the Arctic is warming faster than the global average (IPCC, 2021). One possibility is that the recent period of no trend is just interdecadal variability. Baxter et al. (2019) found that “observational and model evidence shows that the changes in summer sea ice since the 2000s reflect a continuous anthropogenically forced melting masked by interdecadal variability of Arctic atmospheric circulation…resulting in the appearance of a slowdown over the past 11 years.”
They spend many paragraphs reviewing all the suggestions that might explain why, but essentially no one knows. It might have something to do with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Arctic Dipole, freshwater flushing, positive ice albedo feedback, pre-conditioned sea-ice, old ice, triggering by the early spring snow melt, and the persistence of a cyclonic mode in the Arctic ocean. It’s a keyword mash of all the permitted variables and none of the solar, geothermal or space weather ones. (Don’t mention the sun).
Stern finish with the required liturgy:
Whatever the reason for the near‐zero trend during 2007–2024, Arctic SIE is predicted to continue declining due to increasing global average air temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Based on global climate models, there is “high confidence that the Arctic Ocean will likely become practically sea ice free in the September mean for the first time…before the year 2050” in all emissions scenarios (Fox‐Kemper et al., 2021).
Whatever is causing this, based on climate models that don’t work, the Arctic sea ice is finished, so there.
REFERENCE
England, M.R., Polvani, L. M., Screen, J., & Chan, A. C. (2025). Minimal Arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL116175. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116175
Stern, H. L. (2025). Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea‐ice extent. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL114546.
600 billion tons of carbon – OWID cumulative human emissions of CO2
NASA — NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio – Trent L. Schindler, Jefferson Beck — Wiki
Polar Bear photo: Image by Maximilian from Pixabay
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There has been an effect. At last an Australian state government has told their Federal colleagues to dump the net Zero hoax !!!
Where on earth did they find that big pair of balls??
Maybe they grew on their own because of climate change 😂😂
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I must have missed that somehow ?
Which State Gov would that be ?
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QLD
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NSW LNP have opted tp stay on the gravy train, while Qld breaks ranks.
https://theconversation.com/the-queensland-government-is-cancelling-renewable-energy-projects-can-the-state-still-reach-net-zero-257958
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Oops, Clumsy thumb should be green . .
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That was June,…this was yesterday aparently …..
https://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/9047574/qld-lnp-drops-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-policy/
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The may pretend to have dumped Net Zero by 2050 but do they still believe in the scam?
They need to come out loud and proud that it’s all BS.
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Nuclear and net zero should not be in the same sentence. Why would you advocate for nuclear if you can have coal and gas which are both considerably cheaper. Nuclear should be only considered for its reliability and for creating greater choice but to put it in the same sentence as net zero assumes that its zero emissions is the real attraction. We are not against net zero due to its cost ( although that is a big issue, but because the whole climate change global warming alarmism is a scam. When the endangerment finding on CO2 is overturned which is certainly going to happen the whole foundation for an energy transition collapses. CO2 is not impacting the climate in a dangerous manner and it could even be argued has a positive impact.
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Net Zero, Net schmero = same thing….net zero.
Anybody noticed that actual CO2 is seldom mentioned anymore. The narrative is now EMISSIONS. BE THE EMISSIONS THE CABBAGE ONTHE STOVE, an occasional fart caused by the cabbage, farting cattle, halitosis, smoke from the barbie’s or a lithium battery fire!!
None of the above, except for the lithium fire, are dangerous so why, oh why the panic, concern & the devastating waste of our tax $$$$$.
Why the cowardice of many, many politicians to stand up & scream NO,
We will remember who you are!!!
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The Qld Premier and Liberal leader David Crisafulli is still all in on net zero.
There are so many wet lettuces in the LNP that nobody knows what they stand for.
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We forget we are part of a neutron star. A carbon, iron and water planet. Very unusual. Instead of being thankful we continue to worship woke idols.
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so much on point!!!!!! why not use the unthreaded?
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Arctic ice was push-pumped for 30 years as a reason to do “Net Zero”. Yet it’s been a flat nothing since 2005 and none of the “Experts” stood up and said so until now, and only with obscurist, convoluted wordage. All that money wasted. All that righteous indignation by people who are either liars or delusional. And where is the Australian opposition? — Jo
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We know how much Arctic Sea Ice extent has varied over much longer periods of time than the present satellite record: ice extent was reported by ships prior to that. The link below shows Arctic sea ice extent for the years 1883 to 1956, reported by Denmark.
http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/
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Make ya wonder if the speakers on the first “earth day”, when they were predicting ice ball earth, were onto something.
Or perhaps just on something, which seems more common that true science in academia.
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No problem. They can just recycle “the coming Ice Age” predictions from the 1970’s.
After all they switched from “Coming Ice Age” in 1979 to “Heat Death of All” in 1981.
By the way, what happened to the prediction that “Buckingham Palace would be 7 foot underwater by 1989”?
Did it join “The Maldives will be underwater by 2018”?
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Sweet
I can’t wait to see the CGI version of Leonard Nimoy tell me we’re all going to freeze to death (again).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kGB5MMIAVA
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A climate scientist tells me because CO2 is heavier than air it all drifts down to the bottom of the world, the South Pole and that’s where the problem is. You know it makes sense.
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Did he explain why the ice sheet in Antarctica isn’t getting smaller (from all that CO2)?
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Volume is decreasing, extent is not.
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That’s strange, because a group of scientists in June reported that they were baffled by the ice sheet gaining mass from 2021 to 2024 at a rate of 108 tonnes a year. The German EIKE in June also advised that Antarctica was experiencing record low temperatures.
So which research has advised that its volume is decreasing?
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Simon, where is the evidence to support your Ice Volume claim?
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And here’s me trying to figure out which pole is up and which down.
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In Space, no one can hear you and how does anyone know what is up or down.
It’s all relative or something like that.
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When I’m pondering such existential questions, I ask my wife.
Or a girlfriend.
Plus, it’s only polite to ask first.
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Natural cycles include all cycles. Wait till the ice age comes back. New York will be pushed off it’s foundations.
It’s a little disappointing for the models to have missed this forecast. A third of all emissions released in this time period and the poster child ‘symptom’ of global boiling has failed to appear. How dare they?
What are we going to have to sacrifice now to keep the model gods happy? Will it be all ocean going transport? Something has to give else the world will just keep doing what it’s been doing for billions of years, maybe we should just raise taxes some more and pray a little harder to the climate gods. Imagine, “Please destroy my world to prove the models, please”, or “Let there be no ice, please”, in reality it’s “My grant depends on it”.
I’ll become a believer just as soon as the ice is gone by Christmas and Santa can’t build his runway.
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The models will be able to explains thing perfectly …. as soon as we retrofit the models to the new data. Which is what we have been doing all along.
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Or do you mean “retrofit the data to fit the models“, which is what they’ve been doing all along.
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Why not both?
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Again the Eemian was 8 C warmer than our Holocene , according to the data from the co2 Coalition scientists and even Wiki tells us that SLs then were 6 to 9 metres HIGHER than we have today in 2025.
When will we stop this lunacy and wake up and follow the data?
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Here’s the link to The Co2 Coalition’s answer about the much warmer Eemian interglacial.
https://co2coalition.org/facts/the-last-interglacial-was-8c-14f-warmer-than-today/
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Here’s the quote from Wikipedia about the Eemian I G sea levels…..
“With the maximum sea level being up to 6 to 9 metres higher than at present, with global ice volume likely also being smaller than the Holocene interglacial”.
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This will surprise the BBC and their ‘experts’ (one actually, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, made famous by Al Gore.)
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
H/t to the notorious climate denier,Tony Heller on X, for the link.
As a Geo, I’m surprised climate modellers have never heard of cycles, especially Masłowski, who has a PhD degree in oceanography.
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Guacamole wackamole:
“Peter Wadhams… an expert on Arctic ice [said in 2007] Some models have not been taking proper account of the physical processes that go on”.
No ship, Sherlock! What this gobsmacking quote really really really means is: Some fools have not been taking proper account of [reality] …
Long live Tony & Kirye Heller and their curtain-shredding pooches, exposing one fool after another.
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After being proved wrong, in 2012 he again predicted a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016. When proved wrong yet again, he wrote a book “A farewell to ice” in 2016, again predicting that 2017 or 2018 would see the first ice-free summer. And was again proved wrong…
Sceptics now measure Arctic ice extent in Wadhams.
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John, herewith a link of unscientific predictions going back 70 years as well as more fake doom predictions for the future:
https://extinctionclock.org/
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I wonder if the climate modellers have a spectral analyst in their team?
Although, reliable satellite Arctic surface ice data starts in 1979, 45 years ago, consequently any long cycles would likely be missed.
The Sixty-Year Climate Cycle
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Models are simply reflections of the preconceived biases of the “scientists” who commissioned the models. That, nothing more, nothing less.
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The MacDonald et al study also tells us boreal forests grew up to the Arctic coastline during the period starting 10,000 years BP and finished after 7,000 years BP.
Today we see just tundra and ice in this area. Read the abstract at this link.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222513245_Holocene_Treeline_History_and_Climate_Change_Across_Northern_Eurasia
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Co2 levels during the much warmer Holocene optimum were also about 280 ppm and few Humans compared to today in 2025 and that’s about 8.2 billion and co2 is now about 424 ppm.
When will we start to think for ourselves and wake up?
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Here’s the abstract of the MacDonald study and note temperatures during the Holocene optimum were 2 to 7 C warmer than today. Wake up.
“Abstract”
“Radiocarbon-dated macrofossils are used to document Holocene treeline history across northern Russia (including Siberia). Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions. During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern. The development of forest and expansion of treeline likely reflects a number of complimentary environmental conditions, including heightened summer insolation, the demise of Eurasian ice sheets, reduced sea-ice cover, greater continentality with eustatically lower sea level, and extreme Arctic penetration of warm North Atlantic waters. The late Holocene retreat of Eurasian treeline coincides with declining summer insolation, cooling arctic waters, and neoglaciation”.
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I am concerned that a science degree from a modern university is worth about as much as yesterdays meat wrapper. The universities sponsor or rely on garbage research to keep funding even more garbage research. What are students being taught? Garbage? Who would want to employ a graduate who has come through such an institution? No wonder more kids are opting to be trained at TAFE (technical colleges teaching real things like building houses and repairing things). Learning how medical research is corrupted by big pharma and the doctors they bribe destroys one’s faith in all things connected to universities. About the only thing they succeed in is teaching hatred.
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Teaching hatred = learning ignorance.
As in yesterday’s post, the name Professor Abram conjured images of a wizened, bearded, elderly bloke – similar to his Old Testament namesake in search of a new land somewhere towards the setting sun – yet it was a youngish female ‘scientist’ smiling at the photographer as she warned us of doom ‘n’ gloom ‘n’ save the penguins!
Are these Climatebaggers merely regurgitating their learned Doom-Speak™️ in the hope of receiving a free, return-ticket to Brazil and a seat at the latest gathering of Coprolites©️ despite the environmental damage wrought by their (UN)holy self-indulgences?
Doctors of Hypocrisy (D’oh!) the lot of ‘em.
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Here’s more proof from a 2005 ABC Catalyst program that sea levels at Sydney were also 1.5 metres higher at the end of the warmer Holocene optimum about 4,000 years ago.
See video at 2 minutes as they investigate the death by spearing of a Narrabeen Aboriginal man and the reason for his death.
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=narraben+man%2c+sea+level&mid=06035FFE63EBB62E4DD906035FFE63EBB62E4DD9&FORM=VIRE
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Here’s Andrew Bolt’s interview again of Hydrographic Surveyor Daniel Fitzhenry and the lack of any obvious SLR at Fort Denison Sydney since 1914.
So where’s this dangerous warming world, they keep yapping about?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mjOmsqIibk
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Al Gore and Tim Flannery at dinner.
“So Al, where do we go to from here?”
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“It’s penguins all the way down,”
as they slurped another Guinness.
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Reply: I’m damned if I know
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I’m happy with atmospheric CO2. It automatically stimulates my respiratory response. The trouble with the NetZero mob is that they don’t understand that the the only reason they are alive enough to bellyache about CO2 emissions is because of the CO2 in the air they blithly breathe. Ungrateful sods!
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There are a number of published papers existing that tells of little to ZERO summer ice in the Arctic, yet the Polar Bears are still here the world didn’t go down in a fireball and other delusional nonsense that are being talked about today with those silly “tipping points” as being one which is an invention of politics and propagandists.
Here is a nice list of papers I have collected for reviewing pleasure.
Little to no Summer ice in the Arctic
LINK
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‘The primary suspects behind this multi-decade variability are natural fluctuations linked to the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic, although the precise causes are yet to be quantified.’ (England)
The teleconnection between ENSO and NAO is controversial.
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Added to the post. A quick review of Stern et al
POST NOTE: Another paper by other modelers who also have no clue…
Kenneth Richards at Notrickszone talks about different paper (Stern et al) who found a flat line in the minimum ice each year from 2007.
They spend many paragraphs reviewing all the suggestions that might explain why, but essentially no one knows. It might have something to do with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Arctic Dipole, freshwater flushing, positive ice albedo feedback, pre-conditioned sea-ice, old ice, triggering by the early spring snow melt, and the persistence of a cyclonic mode in the Arctic ocean. It’s a keyword mash of all the permitted variables and none of the solar, geothermal or space weather ones. (Don’t mention the sun).
Stern finish with the required liturgy:
Whatever is causing this, based on climate models that don’t work, the Arctic sea ice is finished, so there.
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Lots of stuff in a chat show format but also Including Al Gore making predictions of fact.
And it’s all very silly. Artic sea ice at the North Pole is only 4 metres thick. Over 4,000 metres of sea water which is fine and full of fish, especially in summer.
Plus you would think that removing sea ice would warm the arctic as the light would not be reflected back into space but make the ocean warmer? That’s one of those feedback mechanisms no one wants to talk about when they cancel doom and gloom and more cash required to fix the problem.
If all the sea ice melted in summer, the world would cheer because at present world trade/shipping is avoiding both the Suez and Panama canals. And the UN is demanding $42Billion in carbon taxes from international shipping for a problem the UN has not fixed in 37 years. Can we have the money back? CO2 has been totally unaffected by COP1-COP28 and half a million giant windmills. The greatest waste of effort and money in human history. What is the purpose of the 80,000 people with the UN?
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“Whatever the reason for the near‐zero trend during 2007–2024, Arctic SIE is predicted to continue declining due to increasing global average air temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.”
Something that is not continuing will continue.
This may be evidence for the ‘many worlds’ interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.
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Or not.
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“Analysis of ensemble members that simulate analogs of the observed pause indicates that the current slowdown could plausibly persist another five to 10 years, although the chances of a faster‐than‐average decline are increased in the near‐future.”
So very many words to say “We don’t know.”
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C’mon Aussie, you have Trump running the USA, Farage leading the UK opinion polls, and plenty of similar parties either leading the polls in Western Europe or actually leading their countries in Eastern Europe. This English Australophile says stop whinging and get a political party going to reverse Australian energy policies and denial of peaceable free speech and other woke trash. Democracy is not dead yet.
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They think that the more billions the taxpayers give them fix the invented problem is the concrete evidence that its ttrue.The Orwellian loop in action.
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its odd, isn’t that NASA and the European Geoscience Union say the opposite
But if you squint and look sideways like Climate4you (link is broken by the way) you get this picture navigate to the sea ice page, and try to find that graph, amongst all the pages showing just how much the sea ice is changing year on year.
OH I see, this post uses commentators as credible and reproducible sources, not the actual science
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Nothing like an appeal to authority, is there Peter? I mean how dare people like us think for ourselves? I started graphing this flatline a good ten years ago (you know, a “Hey, I did that by myself!” moment) because I watch and question and think. I can only imagine at the mentality that would rather be spoonfed than to think for one’s self.
Please describe the experience for us?
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LOL, NASA actually showed no more decline after 2007 did you even look over the interactive chart?
Geoscience Union claim is weak as we don’t directly measure volume, they didn’t post any charts either and the paper is now 6 years old sliding out of date.
Meanwhile all the wailing over declines in Arctic Sea Ice is silly as it happened quite often for centuries at a time up to the MWP when it stayed up more as the world has been cooling for thousands of years.
Here is a link to a list of published papers and presentations showing little to ZERO summer ice and the world never crashed at all.
Little to no Summer ice in the Arctic
LINK
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