Despite the wild hype about records being broken, and how hot this summer has “felt” for most Australians there have been many hotter summers, and for millions of people this summer was not remarkable at all.
The BOM is planting the unscientific suggestion it “felt warm” when thermometers in most major centres tell us it was just summer. The population of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne combined is almost 11 million. Nearly 50% of all Australians experienced an average to above average summer, but none of them experienced an extreme summer or a record hot season.
Since there are 100 different ways of measuring a “record”, could it be the BOM is cherry picking whatever record it can find, but ignoring all the non-records, the average measurements, and the ordinary heat?
Melbourne, hot but not extreme
In Melbourne there have been nine hotter summers, and two of those were more than a century ago. Those summers weren’t just a bit hotter. It was nearly a whole degree hotter (as an average of maximum summer temperatures) in 1898 and 1951.
In Melbourne this summer qualifies as the tenth hottest. It was far hotter in 1898, 1951, 1981, and 2001
Much of the upward rise in Melbourne could be due to the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI). Compare the slope of Melbourne temperatures to the country surrounding it. See John McLean’s page on UHI in Melbourne. (H/t to Warwick Hughes for the UHI point)
Credit to John McLean for this graph.
“That the overnight temperatures in Melbourne are higher than those in most surrounding localities is a consequence of the city being under the influence of the effect of urbanisation (cities are usually warmer than their rural surroundings, especially at night, because of heat stored in bricks and concrete and trapped between close-packed buildings).”
Sydney had two hot days in an ordinary summer
In Sydney there have been 18 or more summers that were hotter than this one.
Sydney may have scored it’s hottest day ever, but it hasn’t been an extraordinary summer at all.
In Sydney there have been 20 or more summers that were hotter than this one.
There were not many extreme hot days either in Sydney and Melbourne
The way the BOM describes it, this summer was packed with extreme heat. Instead, compared to the last 150 summers, there was nothing that unusual about summer in Sydney or Melbourne. The BoM has nominated 37C as its line in the sand for new records this past summer, so let’s dig through the history books to compare that particular temperature.
In Sydney, there were two hot days this summer. That’s normal. | Graph thanks to Chris Gillham.
…
In Melbourne, 2013 had a very ordinary number of hot days compared to past years. | Graph thanks to Chris Gillham.
Brisbane had an average summer – where are the headlines?
In Brisbane the summer mean was 28.92 C, barely 0.05 above the average of 28.87 C. Both round to 28.9C, so Brisbane’s summer was absolutely…. average. (Thanks to Ken Stewart for that).
Thanks to Chris Gillham for the line graphs.
What does it mean?
There is no denying it was hot in some parts of Australia this summer, and may have been extreme, though that is certainly not true for the parts where most Australians live. But whether the nation as a whole experienced record heat depends on how its measured, and as I’ll post tomorrow, the “average” of a whole continent can be measured many different ways with many different data-sets.
Why is the BOM seeking headlines and declaring records, when the data-set and methods are so unfinished they have not been released publicly? (Plenty of errors and flaws and mysterious adjustments have been found in past sets.) Why is the BOM focused on one season, or a few weeks of heat, when it’s only the long term trends that matter (as they remind us whenever it’s cold)? Why won’t the BOM announce how temperatures are averaged and measured before they announce the records?
Why are the BOM seeding the idea that this summer “felt” hot to Australians when it’s not just unscientific, but incorrect?
Why do they focus on one hot day in Moomba, when the records there are so short they would have missed all the previous hot spells? Those previous hot spells broke the Moomba records over and over and a long time ago.
In the end, even if it was a record hot summer, that doesn’t mean CO2 caused any of it. The world has been warming for 300 years. The world has been warmer before. None of that was connected to CO2 levels.
Just what I mentioned in the previous post.
Only two hot days in the whole summer and even one of those was not exceptional for an Oz summer.
170
And yet despite your cherry picked cities, Australia, as a whole country, experienced its hottest summer on record.
754
And again, so?
70
“The hottest summer” — According to the BOM which hasn’t published it’s methods nor released the data. Mrs Nice, you take that on faith? How unscientific.
Those “cherry picked cities” are the three largest cities in Australia. Did I miss one, or are you just not sure what cherry picked means?
581
What about Moulamein or Wakool?
Or better yet Gee Gee Crossing?
30
Jennifer Marohasy, is back and her post compliments this one.
The ever widening credibility gap, of the massagers of historic temperatures.
50
Oh, he/she/it knows that all right. That is why he/she/it wants to look at the average for all of Australia, so artificially raising the temperatures of the cities, that are situated in the more temperate coastal regions, with their sea breezes, by including the hotter temperatures of the interior.
But this is not a debate about average temperature per se. History now shows us that people don’t give a stuff about average temperatures. They recognise that the average temperature is just an academic and political concept, with no pragmatic application in the real world.
What people do care about, when comparing temperatures, is the temperature where they happen to live day after day.
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Same source as you’re using for your findings Mrs doubt.
Last time I checked those largest three cities we not producing much of the food required to feed the people in those cities.
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What’s “food” got to do with the article anyway? Your’re trying to side-track the conversation because you’ve been shot down in flames. Besides, the nation’s food bowl is being destroyed by policies dreamed up by Greens.
We’ve been in a cooling cycle for some 16 years – proven. But who cares about an INSTRUMENTAL record that’s only about 200 years old – an unrecognisable blip in the history of this country? The Greens, but only because it suits their argument. You’ll never get them to show you ice core records.
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Nah Olaf, just pointing out how useless Jo’s post was to begin with.
518
that’s ironic !!!
The Nonce pointing out useless..
He must be in a hall of mirrors !!
60
Just for you Jo;
Issued: 1 March 2013
Media Release – Head Office
Bureau of Meteorology confirms it’s been the hottest summer on record
so rather than perpetrating your absurd and disingenuous statistical ignorance, please argue on the facts.
427
Once again, if it is the hottest summer on record (and by record we mean about 100 years, I’m sure Australia is a little older than that), so what? What caused it? Empirical evidence please…
…and Australian temperatures aren’t global.
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Neigh silly; while you’re eating your corn read this; and then you may swish your tail as you depart.
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To the ol’ mineral, Warwick Hughes has little or no statistical credibility. He can’t even compare the appropriate graphs on his own site. Try this on for size and eat your own words as usual. As I said above, these are pitiful attempts to obscure the facts!
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Ha ha ha etc! Your link, you poor old mare, proves the point; the mean summer anomaly for Australia is a record BUT the graphs for EVERY region and state in Australia show NO record anomaly!
This race is rigged and we will have to rename you “Fine Cotton”.
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“Warwick Hughes has little or no statistical credibility”
If so, that still puts him well ahead of you.
You have zero credibility on anything.
Glue factory for you, soon, assinine ass !
40
Alarmism at its best. The BOM has clearly cherry picked data to make this claim, because the actual temperature records (which have been rounded up anyway) show that this is not the case at all.
As Jo has noted, we don’t actually know how exactly they arrived at this claim, however we can look at the ALL data ourselves and see that its false.
61
According to the Bureau of Met time series data it was the highest average maximum temperature for January. Sure some states – even most states – have been hotter in the past but on those occasions other states had quite low maximum temperatures, which dragged the average down.
I have no particular problem with the BoM’s claim. The simple fact is that it means zero regards manmade warming.
The causes of the high temperature are perfectly well described in the BoM’s monthly weather reviews
(a) High over central Australia brought clear skies and high temp
(b) the cooling monsoon arrived about 3 weeks later than usual, but that’s by no means unique
(c) winds pulled the warm air from central Australia onto everywhere from Perth to northern NSW, the latter being particularly interesting because on-shore winds usually moderate the temperatures along the coast although higher temperature occur inland.
It’s far-fetched to try to blame human activity for any of the above.
40
Wow, you really are scraping the bottom of the barrel here. That’s the lamest cherry pick I’ve seen for a while and that’s saying something given your track record!
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Paul Homewood @notalotofpeopleknowthat approaches the summer a little differently and, as well, arrives at the not-so-hot conclusion.
21
It an election year and some budgets are going to get cut. It not about GW, GC, CC or anything else except the money.
The BoM will gather the data, ignore it and report something that supports their budget. Best thing is to not politicize their budget. Remove the Climate Change Dept from the BoM. Why they need worry about the climate is a mystery? How did the BoM get into forecasting the climate?
21
Pretty sure they published during non-election years too. Pretty sure the BOM will exist no matter which party wins.
12
Then just remove any climate change function from the BoM. Its really none of their business to predict weather patterns 50 years in advance until they can accurately predict weather two years in advance.
10
How long is that record? How old is the Earth?
70
An SBS newsreader added to the claim “since records commenced in the early 1900s”. However it is obvious that the federal government is anxious to maintain carbon tax con propaganda using whatever twisted or distorted information they can engineer.
102
Nice One. You’re full of it. This was one of the most miserable, coolest summers that I can remember. A few hot days. No long weeks of hot weather. Bring back the 60s. Warm to hot days, blue skies on end, rain in the afternoon, for the entire school holidays and through to the start of school. Flooding rains a number of Summers. Bring back the endless summer days. AGW is complete BS.
41
I was thinking the same thing. I reckon if those two days (out of 90) weren’t so high the “hottest summer ever” would not have been.
Kinda like the rings from one tree that makes a hockey stick, the temperature from two days makes a “record”.
Has been a fairly mild summer here. Before one of the resident trolls point it out, yes, the temperature where I live isn’t all of Australia, just as much as Australian average temperature isn’t global.
211
As I understand it, a number of relatively new weather sites had been added into the mix, by those claiming unusual temperatures. These stations are in areas that are generally hot…? And that skews the numbers?
110
Well Jo, why don’t you tell us precisely what hottest summer means to you, and then show us the results?
341
Personally, I can only see one appropriate way to define it, which is the average min + average max / 2
233
Unsurprisingly, that’s also the metric BOM uses.
425
I guess you’ll just have to wait for Jo’s next post.
No point jumping the gun.
40
Tristan – Download the raw data for Dec, Jan and Feb (summer) from this site.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=1202&ave_yr=T
If you add the anomalies 2012 – 13 is the highest at 3.34 Mainly due to an extremely January anomaly of 1.76.
but 1972 – 73 is the next highest at 2.63.
1997 – 98 is 2.39.
It doesn’t pay to blindly follow the BoM
Again David Jones, Head of BoM stated in the Australian in January:
“Yulara, 85km west of Curtin Springs and in the shadow of Uluru, has already experienced its longest-ever recorded run of plus-40 days, (12 days)with every day this year above 40C and eight days above 44C.”
In January 2011 Yulara had only 10 days out of 31 that were below 40 degrees and were consecutive above 40 degrees from the 14th through to the 30th! (17 days)
Dr Jones said “recurring temperatures in the high 40s recorded in towns such as Oodnadatta and Marree in South Australia’s north this year were “one in 20-year values”.
At Marree in January 2006 there were only 3 days below 40C. At Oodnadatta in January 2011 there were only 7 days below 40C with the 14th through to 31st consecutive apart from the 18th which was 39.8C.
These figures are all available on the BoM website.
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Tristan, this is where they take the temperature at Marree.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/map/stations/017031.shtml
See anything wrong with it?
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No Ian, I don’t, but if you have issue with it, send BOM a letter and report back.
021
Goose….
20
I suggest you recheck those figures Janama
Dec 97: 0.85
Jan 98: 0.88
Feb 98: 1.20
Looks like +2.93 to me.
It doesn’t pay to blindly follow anyone 😉
114
yup – my bad.
50
Well spotted Tristan and you well note Janama was big enough to concede the error.
When your error is revealed to you concerning your choice of the “approriate” way of calculating and measuring mean temperature, average min + average max / 2, you will, I’m sure, be big enough to concede your error as well.
170
Sure, if there’s a better way I’m all ears.
As far as I know however, for most of the history of the temperature record, we only have ‘min’ and ‘max’ values for each day*.
While min + max / 2 does not actually give you the average temperature, it does a better job of capturing changes in temp than either min or max alone.
*It’s not precisely divided into days – an artifact of the way temps were recorded, you can get quirky results on days with unusual temperature profiles.
014
Ah, never mind. With temp records pulled, adjusted, smoothed, tarmac-toasted…what does it matter? The rainfall records remain kind of static and hard to incorporate into an artistic piece, but temps are now works of pure creativity.
It’s like “extremes”. You can’t FEEL Cyclone Mahina like you feel Yasi. You can’t FEEL Galveston or the Long Island Express like you FEEL Sandy. People, go with the flow, and FEEL that climate.
Don’t worry. There’ll be plenty of graphs, numbers and acronyms to give the whole a really authentic and sciency ambiance. But GISS and BOM, like the old soft rockers, know what really counts.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzBJmoVSIYE
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A) The most “adjusted” data is actually the satellite data, in the sense that the raw data isn’t very meaningful at all – it has to be put through a number of treatments before it makes sense.
B) Somehow satellite data and surface station data manage to be roughly concordant with one another, except for the higher tropospheric response to ENSO influence.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/mean:12/offset/plot/gistemp/from:1979/mean:12/offset:-.36/plot/gistemp/from:1979/trend/offset:-.36/plot/uah/trend/offset
012
Like this?: http://www.pas-sound.co.uk/images/Generic/big_ears.jpg
Or?:
http://babyanimalzoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/fennec-fox-baby.jpg
Or?:
http://jsteurs.be/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/big-ears.jpg
No, I think this might be Tristan:
http://rheinschau.displace.net/patricia_piccinini.jpg
Seriously, the whole notion that we can use surface temperature data for a proxy of global heat is close to ridiculous. Even sillier is if we use an average of min. / max. since if it were nearer min. for 20 hours and near max for 4 hours (this happens regularly here in my locale in winter) you have a significant problem. Even worse if it happens to be a “record” max temp. in that scenario.
We know that warmists wouldn’t exploit that either right?
181
Hi Tristan; let’s spread your education out a bit; look at BOM’s Summer Mean anomaly graph for Australia.
Sure enough it shows a national record.
Now check what BOM says about the summer mean for every region in Australia which you can do on the same graph. None had a record. So nowhere in Australia was there a record but nationally it was a record.
Then read about Simpson’s Paradox.
This isn’t science, BOM is dealing with magic!
h/t Andrew Barnham.
170
Tristan, love your work. I’m someone who doesn’t care that sea levels started to climb around the Napoleonic Wars, and temps started trending up some decades after that. Arctic Ice doesn’t worry me as much as it did the Royal Society after a bunch of melting around 1817 (and before a frustrating re-freeze or two before a major ice-up later in the century). No, I couldn’t care less about all that.
I’m here for the imagination, the verve, the glamour…the art!
190
Good to see you’ve moved from ‘it’s not happening’ to ‘it won’t be bad’. One step at a time eh.
323
It’s all happening: hot (France 2003, USA 2012, England 1976), cold (2012 European cold wave; most of northern hemisphere this winter, where they even managed one of those “ever” records – lowest single reading for the whole hemisphere, beating out 1933).
Bad? Good and bad I leave to you artists – but I’d check out India’s recent coldwave as an example of bad.
But really, I should also be leaving hot and cold and “extreme” to you arty folk. You do it better.
160
Talking to yourself? Is that what it takes to gain a ‘Consensus’ anymore?
51
Tristan ordered Ian:
Tristan, if you can’t see why that placement would give a higher temperature reading than the outer areas, then perhaps you would be more suited to some other topic. Also, there is no particular point in in reporting this instance to the BOM. Anthony Watts has performed a survey around the world and found that about 90% of the stations don’t meet the specified requirements. The problem with this one is not special. Of course Ian or someone else might decide to write to the BOM, but please be aware that neither he nor any of us are obliged to report back to you, that we have complied with your directive.
142
Tristan doesn’t think an incinerator next to a thermometer is anything out of the ordinary. Priceless.
60
It’s also in the middle of a solar radiating sandy parking area where vehicles with hot engines and bodies can park next to it.
40
And tin sheds all around..
I guess the swing helps level all that out though. Breeze and all that, y’know.
30
There’s another BOM site at Marree Airport, about a kilometre away. I haven’t seen a picture of that but it would have to be better. It opened in 1998. Comparing the two for 1999-2011 where both have annual mean maximum temperatures published by the BOM, we get:
Comp = Marree Comparison, the one in the picture
Year—Comp—Aero—Diff
1999—29.7—29.1—0.6
2000—29.4—28.6—0.8
2001—29.0—28.4—0.6
2002—30.1—29.4—0.7
2003—29.7—28.8—0.9
2004—29.7—28.9—0.8
2005—30.2—29.6—0.6
2006—30.3—29.5—0.8
2007—30.2—29.6—0.6
2008—29.0—28.5—0.5
2009—30.0—29.4—0.6
2010—28.0—27.3—0.7
2011—29.4—28.7—0.7
The Airport is cooler by about 0.7C on average. That’s a lot for two sites virtually next to each other. I suspect the difference varies according to season, and I reckon it would be larger in winter.
Tristan not finding anything wrong is the best news I’ve heard so far this year!
40
Personally, I like this one better;
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/map/stations/073054.shtml
Wyalong Post Office
20
Right, I think I understand how it works in the catastrophist mind now …
The secret to their logic is to choose an arbitrary number of adjacent meteorological sites where the average of the individual temperature readings just happens to be higher for some arbitrary period of time, than ever before recorded for that specific combination of sites. You can then claim that to be a new record.
If, in the period since the reference point for the “average” was last calculated, some the previous sites have been removed, or moved, or if additional sites have been added, then the definition of the area under study has also changed. This is good, because you then have nothing to compare it against, and every year can set a new record, until such time as you get a fluke colder year, in which case you ignore it and look for another area where you can demonstrate, from the above method, that it is “the hottest on record”.
Absolutely brilliant. It is a pity that nobody is really interested anymore.
160
For heavens sake, ABC and SBS government manipulated TV continues climate change propaganda. A food reason to dispose of the cost to taxpayers
182
GOOD reason
70
Hottest summer- so what? How has it affected things that really do affect us- farm production? hospital admissions? electricity supply? transport systems? prices? industrial output? tourism?
Compared with many others, Australia really has a benign climate, despite flood and fire and famine. I wouldn’t like to be out working on a roof, or in a trench, or on a fence line, but for most people a heatwave is unpleasant, not dangerous (provided you drink enough water)- unlike blizzards in NH, or even a normal winter in say Canada. Bushfires are dangerous, but what makes a bushfire dangerous is wind, and fuel load. Floods cause far more disruption and damage than heatwaves, and drought causes more economic loss over a longer period. So why the fixation on a hotter than average (if you can believe it) summer?
321
.
Exactly right Ken,
Nothing changes – they talk about maximums records of 100 years, thickness of ice instead of volume, fires never seen before, floods unprecedented, rain never seen before this and all the other garbage.
The thing they do not realise is the fact that all families talk about the past, current & future. What I heard from my Dad is the same as I hear from the 18 year old I work with, things change, it’s been hot, it’s been cold, it’s been wet, it’s been dry – so what. The main topic at the moment is the amount of money being wasted on all these Green schemes. How does it help us? How does it reduce global temperature? The dummies promoting this stuff is the only reason they exist. There is no CAGW. There is no correlation between CO2 and global warming. Look at the facts that are slowly getting out.
The main dicussion area with working people is money. It’s F**king not existant at the moment because all these nut jobs are taking it to feather their own nests. I and the majority of my co workers are in the same mind frame – we (Australia) are not causing global warming – get that into your stupid lame brain heads.
The union movement heads are out of touch with the worker (I am a member of a Union) and the rank & file are shLtted off with the elite dLckheads running this climate change bullshLt.
How long will it take you guys to realise that the path you are on is wrong for the average Dave & his missus. What I have learnt here at Jo’s blog is being repeated all over Australia. At BarBQue’, Racing car events, expos, business meetings, smoko rooms, the local pubs urinal and just about every where.
THE garabge and lies being told to us are wrong – and should be stopped. I have read Wes’s comments and Eddy’s also – but which to choose? Fuch- I don’t know – but if you keep pushing and don’t allow me to have my say – I won’t be in fear of the end result.
Is this all political? Is all this scientific? Is this all a con job? Or maybe – is all this stuff we are being told to pay for, just a joke?
I am getting very angry. And this is being repeated all over Australia.
What will the temperature be in 2050? How will it change my life (If I am still alive).What will happen then. There is nothing in this current media bliltz to believe anymore.
I am fed up with the all the garbage continually being fed as fear.
Don’t let fear stop you though. (Sorry WES – but I still have a right to say this).
331
You are right on the money, Dave. For too long people have ignored the rot, the corruption, and the hubris of government, unions, (they are the same actually), and it is starting to hurt. And it will hurt a lot more before it is over.
But gradually, the talk at smoko, at barbeques, at the pub is becoming “WTF is going on? Why does everything have to be SPIN? Why doesn’t anyone tell the truth anymore? How can an idiot stand up and speak to the senate for ten minutes and utter nothing but unadulterated baloney? (Fuhrer Milne Tuesday at 16:15)
Slowly, very slowly, people are beginning to wake up to stupidity that is the Green Fascism that is like a thorn in your side, and the people are becoming very very angry.
212
I’ve noticed it, too, in comments across the blogosphere. People all around the world are fed up and, yes, getting angry. I’m right with ’em. People know they are being manipulated, they know they are being lied to and they know they are being stolen from. I’m pleased to find that so many are aware and beginning to mutter. That’s the start.
I think when it flips away from CAGW, it will flip very suddenly. The Greenies and “climate scientists” are in for a bad time.
161
I have observed the leftism taking hold of our lives in Australia and have tried to point out what is happening but with not much success in convincing people however there is now much more awareness and with the young people who have a long life ahead their future prosperity depends on us ridding the nation of these parasites and would be dictators.
151
As in the graphs above, temperature measurements in many places go back to 1860. Sydney has some earlier. From about 1880 many regional centres recorded the data using the Stevenson screen, yet the ABC TV told us the ‘records’ broken this summer, were from when “records began in 1910.” The BoM came into being just after Federation and refuses to recognise the existence of the meticulous work done by the colonial departments until then. ‘Tis most insulting to those diligent keeper of records.
220
As far as I can tell, temperature graphs are based on the length of data that gives the desired answer.
90
Too right! Mr Wraggie, Mr Russell and Sir Charles Todd have a lot to show!
I think the BOM would rather forget what can be figured out from those old records.
“Mr. Wragge says that we are on the eve of a cycle…”
“Look at the floods in Central Europe. They all betoken disturbances which must be paralleled south of the line. Then there is a correlation between the northern and. southern hemispheres, just as there is between the North and south Poles.”
“We need not be alarmed, since the astronomical position of the moon— not phases of the moon, remember, for that is a very different thing will help to increase the rainfall and to counteract the minimum conditions of the sun which were the main factors in the weather problem.”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/68890851?zoomLevel=5
20
Apart from the increasing urban heat island effect, the Sydney Observatory Hill temperature station is affected by an asphalt parking lot about 9 metres away, in contravention to the standards laid down for these instruments. The adjustment factor would have to be a few degrees, making nonsense of the ‘record high’.
200
briefly clicked on sky news last nite and between the news ticker wording on this topic and what was written on it in the news menu, i had so much trouble trying to work out what the BOM was attempting to say, i had to keep cancelling the menu and going back to re-read the news ticker, then back to the menu, etc. if this sounds confusing, it was, and i was none the wiser for the effort.
however, i was in no doubt BOM – with the complicity of the MSM – was cherry-picking, and deliberately trying to bamboozle the public. in short, more meaningless MSM CAGW propaganda.
160
In view of recent creative efforts by the BOM and GISS, I’d say we need to change our standard of judgement. We need to stop evaluating imaginative art as if it were dry science.
160
★ Atmospheric CO2 for January 2013= 395.55ppm
.
Equaling a record set in 1898 in Melbourne does NOT mean melting ice in Antarctica.
.
Northern Hemisphere Sets New, All-Time Record Cold Temperature: -96.1°F In Oymyakon, Siberia
Photos from the quickest global warming place on earth, Oymyakon, Siberia.
.
Prediction:
UN-IPCC/CSIRO: Polar regions FIRST to feel effects of man made catastrophic global warming.
120
“Equaling a record set in 1898 in Melbourne ”
This means that DESPITE all the (so-called) warming, the temperatures have only just reached those of over 100 years ago.
No-one with even the stupidest brain could call that warming.. yet they do !!
(or 74 years in the case of Sydney, where the westerly air stream that causes high temps in the CBD now comes across many km of residential heat areas that where farmland in 1939)
170
And when you see what BOM/GISS have done to temperature records for places like Alice Springs, where a negative trend becomes a positive trend after “adjustment”, it is obvious how a new so-called record could be created from such an ordinary summer.
91
oMgZzzz, look! A cold place! It’s like sUpER cOld!!!1! That means I am right. right?!!
00
Handjive, your link includes:
The update reads:
00
I live in Melbourne and it was a mild summer. Northern Vic. and SW New South Wales was hot! East of Melbourne was mild.
[ Sooo…, I guess that just goes to show how the weather proves global warming is upon us. And whats more is solid proof of the CO2 causation ]. NOT.
101
I live in NSW. We had some hot days, sure, but they were not excessive. I know that for a fact. How? Because I DON’T have air-conditioning and because I’m a country person – that means I go out in it, no matter the weather!
101
I live in a north western Melbourne suburb. Had no problems with any of the hot January(2013) days. February just passed was more uncomfortable though the maximum temperatures were not as high. Did not check for January but noticed on quite a few days in February that the humidity was very high.
The subjective measure of what constitutes a hot day used to be referred to as “dry heat”, that is days which were bearable for some and enjoyable for most. The contrast was “sticky heat” days which are generally uncomfortable for most due to the humidity. Most who did not consult a thermometer would feel that a lower temperature high humidity day was much hotter (uncomfortable) that a higher temperature low humidity day.
The BOM , which is a notable cheer leader for CAGW no doubt thought it had a captive audience after a “sticky” February.
As already noted it is an unthinking nonsense to compare temperatures at a certain place or locality to tenths of a degree from when that locality was essentially rural to a present, major, modern, expanding city without discounting for the certain increasing UHI effect.
That’s one of the reasons climate change alarmists including the scientists are not to be taken too seriously when they pronounce record hot days are a measure of the effect of human activities on climate change. In other words deduct the UHI contribution from your “extreme” high temperature days and we might begin to take you seriously.
51
Why won’t the BOM announce how temperatures are averaged and measured before they announce the records?
Maybe they’ve been to an IPCC seminar on: ‘How to lose records and evade data set and FOI requests’.
90
Why are there no records readily available for values other than the “average”. I’m sure somewhere someone kept a record, even if they wrote it on a napkin, of all the actual temperature readings from each station. There are places on the internet that sell temperature data so maybe it’s a money thing. Anyway, we really need the actual temperature recordings, not just the averages.
Of source, maybe the IPCC did lose them……
80
Sheri, maybe the IPCC did lose them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html
10
The link’s been dudded. Try this…
“They have come up with every possible excuse for concealing the background data on which their findings and temperature records were based.
This in itself has become a major scandal, not least Dr Jones’s refusal to release the basic data from which the CRU derives its hugely influential temperature record, which culminated last summer in his startling claim that much of the data from all over the world had simply got “lost”. Most incriminating of all are the emails in which scientists are advised to delete large chunks of data, which, when this is done after receipt of a freedom of information request, is a criminal offence.”
Christopher Booker-Telegraph 28 November 2009
10
How did the rest of the Southern Hemisphere fare over summer? Was it a record high in New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, South Africa or Zimbabwe? How about Madagascar, Heard Island or Antarctica? I haven’t studied the weather of any of these countries, but I haven’t read any headlines about it either. The BOM can hardly claim that this is a global phenomenon.
As far as hot summers go and to add to what Ken Stewart said above, I’d rather see evidence of it by way of sales of items consumed in summer, such ice cream, soft drinks and of course beer! How have the beachside small businesses been going? Any sales records being set? Maybe my friends at the ABS can tell us.
50
Ian, on the rest of the southern hemisphere, see
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/memo_warmists_australia_is_not_the_world/
Andrew Bolt hat tips Jo, but I cannot find this article here.
30
In the radio (ABC) report I heard it was stated that this was not an el nino event, which I think was meant to suggest it was man made. But he also went on the explain that Pacific temperatures were normal. So, not global then.
10
David, during a El Nino phase temperatures are higher, in a La Nina phase they are lower. Here’s a good graph: note the cool El Nino year in 1992 following the massive Pinatubo volcano eruption in the Phillipines. Also the temperature increase.
00
I don’t think so. But it has been dry. Dairy Farmers in some areas are only milking once a day, whereas they would normally expect to be milking twice a day well into May.
The interesting thing is that the only mention of climate change or global warming comes from the journalists, and not from the farmers. The farmers just shrug and point out that it is a cyclic thing that happens in seven year cycles. They also say that it is a good time to maintain or enlarge their dams, so they will have more water for the next cycle.
60
Annual mean CET
http://junksciencearchive.com/MSU_Temps/HadCET_an.html
Monthly mean CET
http://junksciencearchive.com/MSU_Temps/HadCET_mon.html
No warming in England
70
Jo – will you stop ruining a good story with FACTS..?
‘The science is settled.’ Don’t you read your nice unbiased Australian newspapers..?
100
If only the BOM were saying 3 random places had record temps, and you had data to show Australia as a whole wasn’t particularly hot, because then you’d have a point to the article.
519
And if only you could say that the temperature records for most places in Australia (particularly in the warmer central parts) hadn’t been “adjusted” over the last decade or two to create positive trends where negative trends exist in the raw data.
111
Oh goody, its all so clear to me now.
Its only hot if its hot where most people live. The rest of the landmass is somehow an irrelevance.
Actually, it could be argued that this post sets a new record for pointlessness and could have made what point it had by simply saying:
BOM are bad people, dont trust them. BOO!
But i guess it give the sceptics answer to the old question about the tree falling in the forest huh? 🙂
334
Pretty sure Jo has had a busy week, her last few posts have been a bit soft.
423
Catamon:
Actually, as far as climate change people are concerned, the only places that count ARE the populated places. If it’s hot where no one lives, how can you use this to scare the daylights out of the population so they follow your proclamations?
200
OK… this post wins the award.
10
I hope the green thumb realises that it is not a positive award.
20
Well given that the whole argument about climate change is a political one, where the science, such as it is, is only a side show, and given that the IPCC is a political organisation, sponsored by the UNFCCC, which is a political agency of the United Nations, a global political organisation, I would say that the primary purpose of climate change is to convince people to give up some of their hard-earned money by way of taxation, and so it is entirely appropriate to focus on where people live, since they are the tax payers.
Unless of course, you have found a way of taxing the marsupial population, in which case that big desert area in the middle of the island takes on a little more significance.
70
Are they still taxing the marsupial Opossum in NZ, by depriving them of their hide?
The red kangaroo by turning them into Airline Steak?
Thats probably the future the greens envisage for the rest of us.
As any time a “progressive is asked, how much tax is enough?
How much is too much?
Its always a non answer implying more.
00
No, no! We don’t tax Opossums in New Zealand. They are poor, underprivileged animals, and we are a very socially conscious country.
Why, we even provide lots of trendy yellow restaurants for them to eat at. They are so grateful that they bequeath their hide to the Government when they die.
50
Trendy yellow cyanide bait?
The wonder cure for all of lifes ailments.
Whats the current price on these donated furs?
10
I have no idea. I think that they stopped paying the bounty some time ago.
The Government had suspicions that a few of the “trappers” could be breeding them. Of course, I couldn’t, possibly comment on that.
The real problem is that they, along with wild pigs, can spread TB to cattle, and that does no good at all to New Zealand’s Dairy production.
10
you have Opossums too?
00
Haha, this was pretty much exactly what I was going to say. It only counts when there’s a big population there yeah?
00
Wow. This has to be one of the silliest skeptic blog posts ever given life to on the Internet. Jo Nova effectively tries to convince people a statistical value is insignificant because some of the specially chosen sample values are less than the mean!
And, laughably, you even ignore the self evident warming signals in the graphs you posted.
Setting aside the fact that noone tried to claim the “felt warm” statement was scientific, Jo ignores the fact that records for maximum temperatures and heat waves were broken. It was a hot summer.
Sorry, but you couldn’t more aptly demonstrate what it is to be in d[snip], when you post such self-evidently foolish and unscientific trash.
[There is that “D” word.] ED
533
Evidence the earth is warming is NOT proof of the climate change theory. It does not address the cause whatsoever. Of course, if you were familiar with science, you would actually know that.
163
It is irrelevant if the Simpson Desert remained very hot for several days in a row.
The FACT is that in the areas where the large majority of people live in Australia, this summer was a pretty ordinary summer. You cannot call this global warming, or climate change or extreme weather or anything like that, because it was basically just ORDINARY!!
The highly adjusted and manipulated BOM “average” Australian temperature is a pointless and meaningless value, especially without knowing how it was calculated now, versus, how it was calculated for values from past years.
If its like GISS where during the 70’s and 80’s they “lost” all the cooler remote temperature stations (how do you do that? certainly not accidentally), then gradually put back in the warmer one after they had tortured the data, then you can bet that this meaningless BOM average has been well and truly tortured to give them just the message they want.
173
And you have to be one of the least informed and unscientific commentators on that site.
It suits the alarmists to talk in terms of averages, and median values, because they can be easily manipulated by selectively choosing the sites used in calculating the average. Are all sites used? No. Are the same sites always used? No. Do the sites that are selectively used have unadulterated and continuous records? No.
As such, none of the normal catastrophist arguments are based in solid physics. They are more aligned with Social Science and Propaganda. Unfortunately, your comment isn’t even good propaganda, it is just plain idiocy.
94
“Unfortunately, your comment isn’t even good propaganda, it is just plain idiocy.”
Could you be more specific RW? Are you saying TheInquirer is no more than a pisswit?……… oh I see, he does not even make it to being a moron.
Moron 51–70.
Imbecile 26–50.
Idiot 0–25.
My mistake. Not moron I meant imbecile.
Which makes it quite a bit easier to classify the other trolls. Sort of somewhere in the 0 to 70 category? To save them embarrassment one could do it by numbers.
Admittedly it is a slow Sunday afternoon but to attempt a rational, scientific conversation with idiots, imbeciles and morons is a big ask.
20
Incidentally there were idiots, imbeciles and morons playing a different but equally idiotic game as recently as 1977:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/01/global-cooling-compilation/#more-81095
I guess 0 to 70s have poor memories.
20
Careful Llew,
I wouldn’t spread that about too much. You will have the slavering classes jumping up and down shouting, “Look, look, see how much the temperature has warmed since the 1970,s and OMG it’s worse than we thought.”
30
I liked the part in the video that said “I weather stations in the far north, temperatures have been dropping for 30 years”. Cherry picking at its best.
00
It is a bit hard to think like a 0 to 70 RW so I will have to be extra careful in future.
(One thing that did occur to me was that “the science was settled” then, about the CO2 warming effect I mean, but as now a bit of supposedly startling temperature data always trumps the “settled science” for the 0 to 70s cohort).
00
We are talking standard warmist IQ’s here, aren’t we ??
10
“…because they can be easily manipulated by selectively choosing the sites used in calculating the average.”
The bit you didn’t read, or didn’t see, or didn’t want to etc etc…
TheInquirer, are you up in Qld? I was wondering if the rain is clearing.
20
“Jo Nova is clearly a better and more learned scientist than all those self-interested climate science propagandists – why doesn’t she just get in there and publish a few papers to bring the whole thing crashing down?”
She already has, in concert with other critics of alarmist climate change ideology. Guess you are not bright enough or well informed enough to know that the alarmist climate change “scientists” are desperately trying to work out why their models don’t work as accurate predictors of climate.
If you want to get with it here it is straight from the stable of horse’s mouths via Judith Curry:
http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/27/candid-comments-from-global-warming-scientists/
If you really want to catch up on the vagaries of the climate change alarmist science and not remain a complete uniformed dill you will find the eccentric activist James Hansen is also having a bit of trouble reconciling global temperature reality with the weird ideas spinning around in his head.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/10/27/candid-comments-from-global-warming-climate-scientists/
12
I have to laugh at a global warming skeptic’s use of the word ‘unscientific’ as an insult!
01
The silliest thing I’ve seen in my lifetime is the idea that the Apollo Moon landing were a hoax, followed closely by Mann’s hockey stick. It isn’t even hard to dismiss them. In the former the Russians would have kicked up a stink, in the latter there is proof that influential climate scientists needed to remove the Medieval Warm Period.
This is an election year and therefore the silly season, extended by a desperate PM.
30
Surely “Melbourne” or “Sydney” should be the average of all weather stations in the urban area, not just the one station closest to the city centre?
90
The BOM, like all alarmists organisations, relies more on the average person’s ignorance of science.
“Despite nearly two decades of increasing carbon dioxide levels, the global thermometer has stubbornly refused to move upwards and if anything, looks to be heading in the other direction. The demonisation of carbon is all about belief, which is religion, rather than science, which is about prove it or hit the road Jack.”
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/sleeping-with-the-enemy/
Pointman
161
I read your article yesterday, Pointman. I found it bitingly brilliant as always. I enjoy your posts very much.
70
So do I.
20
Searing couple of weeks on the midcoast in January, definitely a heatwave, and drought wiped out my new bamboo. Cloudless heat like that will break plenty of records (and leave plenty standing from years like 1895-6, 1939, 1960, 2004).
Now it’s back to mild and wet here. Last summer was the coolest I’ve ever experienced; this summer was much drier in December and much, much hotter in January.
Going back, our hottest recorded day was in 1994 (and I don’t think the old records showed a hotter one); our hottest January and hottest of each individual month except August (’46!) occurred back before WW1, our driest year was 1902. I don’t know what our hottest year was according to the records that have now been pulled. Maybe 1939? Hottest post ’65 was 1991.
The records that still stand and tell a fascinating story of my region are the monthly rainfall records. These also convey an impression, repeated elsewhere, of what Eastern Oz was like between the Fed drought and the big drenching of 1950. We had our driest May and July in the 1950s. All other months set their drought records before that, mostly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Lucky they had a cedar industry!
Way past caring how BOM and GISS do their magic. It’s like Emerson singing his Whyalla song. You listen, but with a mix of disbelief and embarrassment.
150
Consider this.
Twenty years ago when we had a hot summer in Australia, children sweated in playgrounds and more ice-cream was eaten. There was no mass news event declaring “records” and other such nonsense.
Now we have a hot summer and all this climate change bullshit alarmism becomes front page news.
Guess what? We know its all a politically motivated SCAM!
The Environmentalist NWO is upon us. And it stinks!
172
During the 1950s/1960s we enjoyed hot summers with afternoon thunderstorms a regular event.
50
Looks like just another fine example of some John McTernan wannabes & sycophantic “useful idiots”.
It would be timely to make a quote from Douglas Adams & the Hitchhiker’s guide but it could get me locked up.
[Not if you gave it attribution] Fly
40
Hmm!
I suppose you could always use Slartibartfast’s original name.
Tony.
Oh! Forgot the attribution.
10
The big lie technique will work.Briefly.
Short term benefit.
But the media and our tax funded activists are up against reality.
The lie is not working, but they have nothing else to play.
A sceptical populace at this point in their “Great Leap Forward” was not on the play list.
We were supposed to be compliantly begging for more servitude by now.
Not snickering and asking; What desperate BS will the cause cultists offer up this week?
In their desperation, we get, bad weather is caused by bad thoughts, think good thoughts or bad things come, style messaging.
Wailing about the weather is as old as language.
When the message is new highs for never before monitored locations, statistical manipulations for “proof”.
You know we are watching panic set in. I love it.
51
O/T. There’s a fascinating broadcast with Monckton over on 2GB. It’s one of the most interesting I’ve heard and that’s from hearing just the first 1/3rd of a 90 minute programme. There are lots of interesting background and insights. Listen to it now on Brian Wilshire on 2GB , or anytime thereafter.
41
I know in Perth it was quite hot and we found it quite funny when people were complaining over east of the hot temperatures. We are used to this sort of weather and it wasn’t that bad in spite of some of the heatwave conditions we had.
An interesting comparison would be to compare those sites from 1910 with the same sites this summer and see if the comparisons make it the hottest summer. Don’t forget that they have said since 1910 we have warmed 1C and yet they still say the next century will see two to five times that rate.
30
I am one who has lost all trust in the once-trustworthy CSIRO and BoM. It’s a damned shame; they were once scientific organisations, but now they are only propagandists for the alarmist money-raising cause.
272
Me too. Too much manipulation of raw data, keeping raw data in background, and changing reference points for “records”. Let alone poorly sited thermometers.
10
Me too.
..and what is more, one can add many systems of evaluation and control that are there to achieve the best value for money, and protect the tax payers interests,which also do not function properly.
Take for example:
1. Peer review, that isnt open and transparent.
2. Proper Cost Benefits Analysis, of all major expenditures
3. Balanced Grant funding,with funds be being directed towards the most worthwile.
4. Units of Govt employing ethical HR and career development practices, and stop using them as means for the career advancement of the priviledged.
5. Politicians stop using the Public Sector as a bolt hole for mates lacking in even the most basic of skills.
6. Forecasting that complies with the well understood preconditions.
7. Leaving our Freedoms of Speech alone.
8. Stop working in cahoots with the unelected and secretive environmental NGOs to destroy our industry sectors, eg Greenpeace and WWF et al
etc add your own
etc
10
Recently, in the article about Lord Monckton standing up to the frauds of CAGW, I got jumped all over for saying that people – real people, not computer-model people – are DYING because of Green policy. My words were likened to the same hype and CAGW fear-mongering (not exactly those words but that was the gist) given by the other side and not worthy for being emotive.
Well, my apologies to those I upset.
As this topic is about the weather and heat – or lack thereof – and as there is no point in replying in that article now days old (26th Feb), I will reply here and say that while the CAGW alarmists may scream 1000s of DEATHS because of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, they cannot point to a single incidence of it (indeed we cannot yet measure ANY Anthropogenic element of ANY of the world’s warming), whereas I refer to factual deaths actually happening now.
24,000 people dead of cold in England and Wales in the Winter ending in 2012 where fuel-poverty is recognized and is spreading. This is what I was referring to. Please note these were EXCESS DEATHS, complied by the U.K. Office of National Statistics.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2011-12–provisional–and-2010-11–final-/index.html
My idea behind pointing out that people ARE dying was to remind people that the scientific argument is no longer something that we can idle about with. We have already spent some decades discussing the science while the Green side rampage ahead regardless of what we say, pushing forward policies that kill the economies of the West, destroy our energy infrastructure, deindustrialize our nations, erode capitalism and – yes – kill people.
Winters are getting nasty – more snow, more ice, more deaths – some countries simply were not prepared for it have swallowed the hype on Global WARMING.
Look up your own links.
Meanwhile, in Australia, things are getting cold already. Last year winter kicked in two months early and killed off my healthy vegie patch – that means it’s effecting crops.
Cold kills.
Warmth energizes and protects.
Lord Monckton is totally correct to start dragging the scamming [self-snips] into court – sorry if this is O/T.
Have a nice day.
181
Jo, thought you might get a kick out of the title on this particular art museum’s sculpture… especially after such a HOT summer last:
http://www.whimsymuseum.org/id1.html
—-
Thanks Susan! Chicken Little indeed 🙂 Jo
20
Worst of all, we are paying for those people at the BOM to sit there all day sifting through weather stations, rejecting cool ones and locating or creating new hotter ones to invent a record summer on paper. There is an ever widening credibility gap between the science and the CAGW political movement. All over the world there is a concerted massaging of the historic temperature going on records.
72
Pointy little heads in pointy hats, flowing robes, intoning;
“Who dare you believe my omnipotence or your lying eyes?
30
Ah yes. Busy, busy in the Bureau of Manipulation.. It may well have been the hottest summer yet for the CAGW movement, as Pachauri and the UK Met Office are both forced to follow Monckton’s lead & admit a standstill in temperatures over at least 17 years now.
51
And of course the systematic “adjustment” of nearly all stations to increase temperature trends means that even a very ordinary summer like this one could easily set a new record.
51
Yes, one might wonder if it has had to be a record year for adjustments.
10
Global temperature trends since 2,500 BC ! http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm
32
On another note. . .
Al Gores climate change game ‘Reality Drop’ is nearing release.
Go here for the write up, video and link to the official page:
http://www.polygon.com/2013/3/2/4056590/al-gores-reality-drop-spreads-climate-change-science-through
01
Does anyone here have the programming skills to make a skeptics game???
00
We could call it “Reality Slap”
00
OMG!!!
The opening words in the video of Al Gores game are vomit inducing!
http://youtu.be/-6aJzArmYQc
10
That’s just sick….
00
Sorry for the triple post, but. . .
You seriously have to look at All Gores game! Truly cringe worthy!
10
https://realitydrop.org/
00
And heres ManBearPig talking about his game:
http://youtu.be/Kz3Z0zuCczs
I find it amusing that the YouTube videos associated with this game have comments disabled.
00
OMG. More concerted propaganda from the would-be Ministry of Reality And Truth.
Again being designed to appeal to innocents without the discerning cognitive abilities to recognise how they are just being used. Game players, who derive personal gratification from earning ‘points’. It could become addictive.
Those so presuming to have the monopoly on Truth & Reality can rarely be trusted with it.
20
[…] Nova once again destroys the scenarios put forward by warmist organizations like BoM. Not the hottest ever summer for most Australians in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. Not “extreme”… Despite the wild hype about records being broken, and how hot this summer has “felt” for most […]
00
Brisbane summer was average? It felt cool to me. (And for the past few weeks it’s been rainy and cool. Pissing down right now, even as I write this.) Admittedly, I moved to Brisbane in 2004, when the summer was particularly hot (and seemed even hotter, since we had been living in England) but it seems to have been cooling down ever since. We bought a portable air conditioner shortly after we got here, but for the past few years it has sat in a cupboard. These Brisbane summers certainly don’t match up to the Adelaide summers I (mis?)remember from my youth.
40
I’ve lived in Brisbane since 1986 … this is the coolest summer that I’ve experienced – we’ve only had the ac on for 3 days in the evening to aide our sleep. Despite having grown up in the tropics, I grew to detest our hot summers so much that it made a great excuse to head north for the snow-skiing season whenever possible.
10
Same here RoHa. I got aircon installed in master bedroom and living area this year in expectation of a hot summer. I’ve used the aircon in the living room twice this summer (once to dehumidify) and use the bedroom unit, not because it is hot, but to dehumidify. Aside from a few hot days in January, it has been mostly cool and wet since and reminds me more of a traditional Auckland summer. Yesterday’s predicted high was 26 but it only got to 24. Today is shaping up the same way.
20
I thought Adelaide had a pretty mild summer. I think we only ran the airconditioner for a few hours on a couple of days.
I get the impression that the “hotness” of summer is heavily influenced by the amount of airconditioning people experience. When you live in an airconditioned house, drive an airconditioned car, go to an airconditioned workplace and shop in an airconditioned supermarket – it “feels” pretty hot when you go outside. I’ve worked in the bush most of my life and just dont get it. Summers are hot but so what? Thats the way summers are. When you take to tradies who work outside regularly, they dont seem to get it either.
Having said that, we are indesuputably sitting at the top of a peak of a 150 year trend out of the Little Ice Age so it doesn’t surprise me when someone says its hotter than normal. What that means for the future is anyone’s guess – but considering the observational data is outside the IPCC’s predictions at the 95% confidence level, I’m prepared to bet that BOM’s or CSIRO’s guesses are as good as worthless.
70
I live on the mid north coast of NSW and have used the air conditioner twice this year veand both times early evening to reduce humidity when the usual sea breeze was not blowing. Otherwise for me summer was not abnormal and I have travelled to the Snowy region and way out into western NSW early February.
20
“I thought Adelaide had a pretty mild summer. I think we only ran the airconditioner for a few hours on a couple of days.”
Of course, we didn’t have air-conditioners when was young. (Air itself was a new invention.) But summers were hotter in those days. The sea was wetter, and the droughts were dryer. Etc. Etc. Young people today …
00
When you look back over the history of meteorology, real scientists have tried to ensure that the historical thermometer record is just that. Data meticulousy collected by instruments that were calibrated to approved standard thermometers, and studious attention applied to siting standards as well as monitoring the data to weed out anomallies of out of kilter readings, that were investigated there and then, to ensure we had the data properly recorded to a standard that could be relied upon, accessed and compared in the pursuit of scientific knowledge, like the CET record in the UK.
Then along come a bunch of Climatologists hell bent on introducing political climate change, first they meddled around the edges, an adjustment here, a tweak there, and gee with computers this is so easy, if I just do this…down the track it will produce a false record and this helps sell a political message that will increase our funding.
But that was only local minor tweaks, must find an excuse to chop up the past record, put it through the blender, Homogenize! Brilliant now for the big excuse,too many reords, too many photographs for the old excuses. Now look at this the sattelite record is out of kilter with the surface temperatures, now if we cleverly declare that LIG thermometers historically read hotter than modern temperature electronic sensors, then we can magically adjust modern equipment to read hotter, by adjusting the old LIG temperatures down.!!
And by using this convenient computer method voila ! we make the world hotter than in the past and can tweak that by blurring the record where ever we please by selective siting, averaging and its magic!!
Just what the politicians want and the research money keeps coming into the trough!
Now just forget about the reversal we did to go against the past relevance of the historical record where Meteorologists calibrated new instruments to be compatible with the existing standards, oh we can’t do that now can we? thats not “modern thinking” and better for our masters post modern sciency political agenda.
Oh and they kept that homgenization hidden away in the GISS crypt until probing questions bought out the spin doctors “plausible” but not “credible” explanation for the vandalization of the historic temperature record – social adjustment, not scientific, but who cares when there is an agenda to push and money in interested pockets to splash about among the faithful.
BOM CSIRO – accepting the post modern spin creation for short term gain, so sad. Shame on you!
101
Considerate thinker,
Then we go looking for non-thermometer absolutes and find that frost recorded in the local newspaper is not really compatible with a 5 deg C minimum overnight. Ot that the massive bird kills of the late 1800s attributable to extremely hot weather, that should cause the adjustors to worry when similar temperatures in recent years have not produced the bird kills. So we go looking deeper and find that for decades the Melbourne Argus newspaper was fed weather data from Glaisher shields, while the BoM kept a record from Stevenson shields, which were shown by comparison to give results of significant difference.
We have to decide, in Australia, if we are to head down a road of honesty in climate work, or a road of obfuscation and non-scientific methodology.
The stakes are very high.
20
But then, lying and deception is acceptable these days. Politicians do it, the spin doctors are employed in droves. Most of the media is dependent on the spin for lazy regurgitation and political advertising on behalf of the present ruling class.
Just forget the huge debts and waste, be dumb, don’t ask questions. We used to be proud Australians wealthy in freedom of choice with enough to surf the world if we wanted to, now we are just the serfs!
70
The Howard Coalition retired $96 Billion of Keating Labor debt from 1996-2006, total cost over $170 Billion including interest. Rudd07 inherited no debt and a $22 Billion budget surplus plus over $60 Billion of funds invested by Howard-Costello.
20
As at 30 June 2013 federal borrowing will reach $300 Billion (not including off budget NBN Co borowing) and budget deficits will be a cumulative total over $175 Billion and possibly over $180 Billion.
It would have taken over 40 years to repay $250 Billion 30 June 2012 plus interest.
Young Australians cannot afford more years of Green Union Labor.
30
Public debt of federal + NBN, state and local government exceeds $700 Billion right now. Young people please note.
40
I dont gettit.
Why are you ALL talking about WEATHER.
Weather AINT climate.
Now if you were here, you’d be risking death from hypothermia each day and that aint climate either. Its weather, with our ability to cope with it crippled by a 60% / decade Green surcharge on electricity bills.
70
Ace , it is only weather in the Northern Hemisphere where they are getting record cold snaps. In the the SH we only have to one hot day for it to climate.
50
No one sells newspapers by reporting the lack of news.
Come to think of it, most of the newspapers aren’t selling anyhow… good riddance.
60
Agreed. I guess there’s a difference between true-story-attention-grabbing headlines and plain-old-lying-attention-grabbing headlines. If they’re going to learn from their mistakes, they’d better do so quickly. Unlit they do, I’m as happy to see them disappear entirely.
20
It probably isn’t a good idea to weight temperature records by population density. Dr Jeff Masters has a good summary of the summer on his Weather Underground blog
11
Yup, i suspect your right on that one, cant really work out the reasoning except maybe Jo was a bit desperate for something to wind up the outrage meter?
That would be a worry, but i am sure it can be explained by those perfidious Oompa Loompas serving the purposes of the UN/Agenda 21 at BOM. From whick the Lord our Monkton will bravely save us when he threatens them with legal action.
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The big deal El Nino of 1997-8 was almost benign in Oz. The weak one of 2002-3 was savage in effect. 1982-3 is an example of a very strong El Nino which had a very strong impact.
But get this: the weak El Nino of 1963-4 had a mild effect over the MDB, but ravaged further to the west. Another one, 1951-2, went horizontal and brought heat and drought across the north! The El Nino which brought my regions driest year in 1902, and created disastrous drought all down the east and into the centre, only had a “weak” rating.
It gets crazier: no significant El Nino is described in the 1930s, and that includes the years of the lethal Big Heat, 1938-9…which were La Nina years!
This year El Nino shaped up, shook its fists, then backed off. How? Why? Buggered if anybody knows yet. I recall one did that back in the nineties.
The sooner we stop treating handy but poorly understood observation sets as simplistic mechanisms the sooner we can move to that thing most want: an actual science of climate, however rough and raw. What we have now is hubristic presumption and impious assertion masquerading as knowledge. That’s why the bludgers keep dicking around with the temps and figures. They’re too heavily invested in creating a narrative which just is not there.
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It is a waste of time using facts on those who only believe those made up for them
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It’s called torturing the numbers until they tell you what you want to hear.
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Good to see Steve McIntyre back showing Mann and Oreskes leaving out 7 years of data to cover up more of their deceptive nonsense.
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336
Oreskes even complains about sceptic’s enfluence to prevent furher use of their BS. What a con, what a fraud and what a super Ponzi scheme.
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I was missing SMc’s incisive destruction of the rubbish emanating from the Team and its sycophants.
Oreskes could do with some professional counselling … she’s become quite shrill; She’s (it’s) worse than we thought !
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Did not get hotter than this recording. Sydney 1896 – “alarming mortality due to heat”. Temperatures over 120F recorded. Most areas well above 100F.http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=FS18960124.2.29
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They took the temperature in the shade in those days, not a hot box sitting out in the sun beside a car park.
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It’s amazing how many unqualified amateurs self-assess their technical ability to record meteorological data as being so much higher than the ability of the responsible trained, qualified professionals.
What do you call that kind of self-belief?
11
What is so technical about recording meteorological data? You record the location, time and date. You access whether or not the stations locations are affecting the data, etc. You do the necessary equipment checks, calibrations, and so forth. Now, if you want to get into amateurs manipulating and discarding data so as to achieve the desired outcome, using secret algorithms and then making pretty graphs, you might have point. That does require a knowledge of statistics, computer modeling and so forth–which a significant number of “amateur” people are actually able to understand. Just perhaps not at the high level seen in climate studies. Your use of the word “responsible” might open the discussion to ascertaining how it is we know these people are responsible and what they are responsible for.
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Now you’re talking about something different, Sheri – you’re talking about the belief in a grand conspiracy among scientists to all fake data and do it in such a comprehensive way that no data exists anywhere that contradicts them.
That is an entirely different situation to the one I described before, where people of no skill or ability somehow know that the very clever multi-PhDs are all wrong.
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Presumably those sorts of ideations are hard to maintain without a healthy dose of Dunning-Kruger
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SimonV: No, NOT conspiracy. Group think, reward for going along with the herd, monetary incentives to tow the line, etc. Also, it is much easier to go along with a consensus than to buck it, so if you want to be published, you write what will be published. I have read climate scientists who admit to “adjusting” data to get published.
Using the word “conspiracy” is an attempt to make me look bad because you have no valid point–great try, but your inability to accurately reflect my statement without putting your own ad hominem thoughts in it just reflect how lacking your knowledge is.
Also, people WITH PhD’s are climate skeptics–many, many of them. Yet, somehow, the climate change supporters refuse to acknowledge this. So, Simon, what about those PhDs who don’t agree?
Tristan: Projection?
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Simonism?
00
I get my weather forecasts from Accuweather. At the bottom of each page they have a graph showing the historical high & low and the actuals. By going back over the summer months, you can plainly see exactly what has happened. Not the hottest by a long way. I trust Accuwaether far more than the BOM.
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Is this the same Accuweather that says the following:
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Young Australians please consider, what does JEG care about apart from clinging onto power?
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So Dennis, let me get this right.
You just jump into threads with political comment that has no relation to the OP or to any of the comments made under the OP?
Because?????
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It’s okay. The population isn’t fooled, because it knows he’s fooling. But it’s true that irony is lost on non-hipsters.
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So if I get this right,
The carbon tax isn’t working
Am I correct?
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Working for whom?
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Pretty piss poor effort if it was.
Correct me if I am wrong, but we didn’t even have any formal heatwaves in Adelaide this Summer, and while a couple of days did reach that technical greatness of ‘stinking hot’, there were also some cold and wet ones.
However, and more to the point of all the people calling the End of the World, if this WAS as hot a summer as everyone wants to claim, did Australia grind to a roasted halt? Did crops fail? Did people die in the streets? Cats and dogs living together?
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Gold..science triumphs whilst the useful idiots confuse climate with weather.
Quick..we need more co2 taxes and CO2 trading..dont we..?????
Maybe the trolls here could get on that blog and correct Steve Mc Intyre???..its all about the science right???..you guys really know your stuff right??(sarcasm of course)..
Or just hide..its safer.. 🙂
No wonder the $CAGW$ trolls dont want any form of scientific debate on the big issues..they never win.. 🙂
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So after all is said and done, it was just hot in a few places.
The simple, elegant explanation that also actually fits all the evidence turns out to be the best one.
Why is this so hard for so many to figure out?
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Still using that one, despite the science not supporting your statement?
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/07/medieval-warm-period-found-in-120-proxies-roman-era-similar-to-early-20th-century/#comment-1184433
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So, Ms. Nice One, it is your scientific contention that THE WORLD WAS NEVER WARMER THAN IT IS TODAY? Really, even Wikipedia agrees that it was warmer in the past. Just check out the climate section on Greenland in Wiki and you can then lecture Wiki on their complete lack of intelligence, too. Maybe open a book and check out how the earth was formed and developed if you can peel yourself away from the doom of the climate change bunch.
Oh, and peer-reviewed literature now has a study saying the Midevil Warming period was due to us humans too. Which means climate change apparently cannot be falsified by any method (it will always be something we did or the world was never warmer even if it was) and therefore is not science. If every objection results in a new theory to “prove” the objection is false, that’s called a fairy tale.
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Sheri,
We probably shouldn’t bother Nice One with evidence. It’s so-o-o-o-o hard to understand.
Fiction is much easier. The fairy tale will always win.
Now if only we had a way to disguise real evidence as a fairy tale… …we might actually make some progress. 😉
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I was working on a fairy tale about climate change. Maybe I can sneak some real evidence in. It’s much tougher to hide fact in fiction than fiction in fact! 😉
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So…
do you know what peer review is yet?
01
A bunch of people who vote to leave me on the island????
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ie. no
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Seriously? I was sure that’s what it meant!
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I would note that had I been on the island, I would have voted the writer of the study on farting on airplanes off the island, as would I have done so with the writer saying post-birth abortion (previously known as infanticide) could be justified in some cases (like the kid’s inconvenient or cries too much). However, such is the nature of voting people on and off an island.
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A clinician writes a small paper in a minor journal about something you find trivial and you attribute this to a failure of science to be relevant. You need to meet some scientists I think
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You assume that I do not know scientists because I reject the notion that peer-reviewed is the authority in science. You mistake my rejecting your definition as lacking knowledge of science and scientists, rather than the fact that your argument for peer-review is not convincing.
I was not aware that the Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association was a minor journal. I’ll give you that the second example came from what you would consider a “minor journal”.
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I read into what you have written as indicating a lack of knowledge, as simple as that. If there was something clear about your argument, whatever your argument is, then I’d have some confidence that you’ve understood the system prior to making a judgement (ie you were skeptical).
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What I am saying in as simple a language as possible: I find no evidence that publishing in peer-reviewed literature is an accurate measure of one’s expertise. When one takes into account factors such as group-think, peer-pressure, the arbitrary nature of what is defined as an acceptable journal and so forth I find the most likely reason peer-reviewed journals exist is to limit the scientists who can contribute to the science change “consensus”. Peer-review is simply people in the same field as you agreeing you wrote an acceptable article and there’s room in the journal to publish it. It says nothing of the accuracy of the article. Before the science was “settled” journals were a way of presenting interesting and sometimes controversial studies so that other scientists could look for reproducibility of results, etc. Now it’s just a pat on the back for going along like a good little scientist and towing the line. Occasionally a negative article does appear and opens the door for true scientific research. Sadly, not often enough.
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All I can say to this is. No it isn’t. thanks for the fact filled response.
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“THE WORLD WAS NEVER WARMER THAN IT IS TODAY”
is a different statement to
“The MWP was warmer than today”
Please make sure you understand the different before trotting off down your own little road of ignorance.
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“The world has been warmer before.
Still using that one, despite the science not supporting your statement?”
How else am I supposed to read your comment? You said science does not support Jo’s evidence that the world has been warmer than before. How is that not equal to “The world was never warmer than it is today”?
Again, you said the science does not support the statement that the world has been warmer before. Straight up, very simple. I see no other interpretation unless you are into the realm of foreign language or fantasy.
(Why is it some people simply cannot do anything but spit out insults and ad hominem attacks? This does no make you look smarter. Just annoying and bothersome. Try taking out the insults next time and someone might actually think you have something to contribute here.)
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Maybe it’s not a good idea to use a single weather station for Melbourne in your analysis:
The bureau’s main city gauge, located to the south of the Carlton Gardens on the northern fringe of the city’s central business district, is also less affected by surrounding buildings than other weather sites on days with northerly winds.
On Black Saturday, the site’s temperature reading was one of the lowest in the Melbourne area, he said.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/city-eyes-record-heat-stint-as-summer-rolls-on-20130305-2fhto.html
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I tuned in to the MSM television news last night (which I very rarely do these days as it is not based in truth) and noticed a new event in reporting the temperature of the day. An example is:
33C (feels like 31C).
What on earth does ‘feels like’ mean? It either is or is not 33C. Can anyone explain this new happening in temperature reporting?
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It’s the heat index–what the air “feels” like. Same as the “wind chill” for cold. The absolute temperature is what the 33c is, the 31c is the heat index. I think they went to “feels like” because people did not understand the heat index number. The heat index is fairly new. Wind chill reporting has been around for years. I guess if we are all warming up, we need a number for how hot it feels.
Actually, part of the index is to warn people that 100 degrees and 100% humidity could be dangerously hot. Humidity raises the number. That was rationale.
00
The New York Times reported Australia had 4 months of heat waves followed by fires.
In Brisbane we had 2 hot days, overcast, rain and flooding
Is anything above 30c now considered a heatwave???
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