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Tuesday Open Thread

9.1 out of 10 based on 14 ratings

Petition to stop the Vax Mandates

All anybody wants is free choice about what they get injected with.  Two days to go. Send it to your friends.

Let the Nurses, Doctors, Truck Drivers, Teachers and everyone who wants to work or travel be free to choose.

Australian Parliament Petition EN3886 – Cessation of vaccine mandates

Keep reading  →

9.5 out of 10 based on 65 ratings

Two weeks of War undoes thirty years of energy propaganda: Everyone wants fossil fuels

It’s the Great Reset in Global Energy complacency

There is pandemonium on the markets and suddenly many nations want to be energy sufficient. It’s perhaps not The Great Reset than the collective-types were expecting?

The gas flows from Russia to the EU are sporadically tightening, and the Yamal-Europe line has been cut off. Gas in Europe is now trading at €340/MWh which is fully 22 times the long term average. Newcastle coal normally trades around $60 per ton, but now is over $400 USD.

A few days ago the former head of MI6 in the UK called for an immediate lifting of the frakking ban which was set to see concrete poured down the only two shale gas wells in England by March 15th. Thirty-five Tory MPs and four peers sent a letter to Boris demanding the same thing.  Now even Boris Johnson is suggesting the Green targets could be relaxed, not just for Britain, but for all the West.  He went so far as to suggest The West could give itself a “climate change pass” while we figure out how to get energy that isn’t Russian gas.

Thanks to NetZeroWatch

So much for the end of Fossil Fuels

@Ole_S_Hansen head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank

margin calls and illiquid trading conditions adding to the panic”

Gas prices, oil, flows, stocks, Europe.

Major swings in everything. From top left: Dutch Gas, TTP, European Gas storage, Gas flows from Russia, Carbon credits, and Coal forward contracts.    |  Twitter.   Click to Enlarge.

Brilliant: A referendum on Net Zero

Nigel Farage launched a campaign Britain Means Business seeking to force a referendum on the Government’s plan to achieve “net zero” carbon emissions in the UK by the middle of the century.

Who could argue with that, apart from all the people that know the voters don’t want Net Zero if they have to pay for it.

Green Blob has it’s own crisis — how to stay relevant

Imagine an army of community groups suddenly roaming the countryside to save Britain from Vladimir by explaining heat-pump grants and waving infra red detectors at their drafty doors?

It all seems a tad artificial. If the planet was at stake they could have done this all along. Why now?

UK should ‘mobilise army of volunteers’ to transform energy landscape

The Guardian

John Taylor, the energy projects manager at Energy Hub, argues that the UK should be convening local groups that can help give advice on grants for insulation and heat pumps, set up community-owned renewable projects, and help with insulation.

“Volunteers can be provided with thermal imaging cameras to go door to door,” he suggested. They can help “identify cold spots and installing simple measures like draft proofing and radiator panels. They can also help set heating controls and lower boiler flow temperatures.”

He also suggests that community groups can “run a village survey to find out who needs items like DIY loft insulation and draft proofing kits. Then order them wholesale to get bulk discounts and deliver them to a community centre or village hall for people to collect.”

Vladimir Putin might be the best thing that ever happened to Western Energy independence.

UPDATE: Latest news is that Russia says it will end the War on four conditions. Ukraine must stay neutral, recognize Crimea is Russian and that Donestsk and Luhansk are independent. In reply, Zelensky has already done an interview saying “No” but Putin needs to start a dialogue. Zelensky suggests that Putin is in a bubble and may not be getting realistic information.

9.7 out of 10 based on 66 ratings

Sunday Open Thread

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Dr Andrew Hill – How many people died because you helped deny them ivermectin?

A year ago, one man sold his soul.

People were dying, hospitals were overflowing, but even by January 2021 we already knew ivermectin could save three quarters of those who died. Randomized trials of 2,282 people showed that only 2% of people on ivermectin died, compared to nearly 10% of the hapless people who missed out, yet he picked the “missed out” path.

Everything pointed in the right direction. The result of the meta-study was highly significant (p=0.0002!), the risks were almost nothing, the outcome was extraordinary, the effect was dependent on the dose, and the blood markers of inflammation were also reduced, as we’d expect.  Yet the conclusion of the same paper was that we needed larger trials before the results could even be reviewed. And this single line that contradicted nearly everything in the paper, was quoted everywhere to say the evidence was “inconclusive”.

This was from the same man who said Ivermectin was “the way forward” and that he would give ivermectin to his own brother. Then suddenly he flipped.


….

A forensic analysis of that strange contradictory paper shows there were two or three other voices who influenced the wording. They were not named. When pressed, Dr Andrew Hill admitted that even The charity Unitaid has a say in the conclusions… This is how the brand name ScienceTM works. It’s not the data that matters.

Watch him squirm, as Dr Tess Lawrie grills him:

Dr Andrew Hill: “I’m not going to let this last for a long time”… (he knows it’s wrong).

He knew 15,000 people were dying every day. “It’s just six weeks” said Hill.  That works out to nearly half a million people who could have been saved. And it ended up being a lot longer than six weeks. It was an opportunity missed.  The paper was used to sack good doctors, slow research, and feed corporations billions of dollars for treatments that didn’t work.

Follow  the documentary maker on Telegram: t.me/OracleFilms

The Abstract:

Ivermectin is an antiparasitic drug being investigated for repurposing to SARS-CoV-2. In-vitro, ivermectin showed limited antiviral activity and a COVID-19 animal model demonstrated pathological benefits but no effect on viral RNA. This meta-analysis investigated ivermectin in 18 randomized clinical trials (2282 patients) identified through systematic searches of PUBMED, EMBASE, MedRxiv and trial registries. Ivermectin was associated with reduced inflammatory markers (C-Reactive Protein, d-dimer and ferritin) and faster viral clearance by PCR. Viral clearance was treatment dose- and duration-dependent. In six randomized trials of moderate or severe infection, there was a 75% reduction in mortality (Relative Risk=0.25 [95%CI 0.12-0.52]; p=0.0002); 14/650 (2.1%) deaths on ivermectin; 57/597 (9.5%) deaths in controls) with favorable clinical recovery and reduced hospitalization. Many studies included were not peer reviewed and meta-analyses are prone to confounding issues. Ivermectin should be validated in larger, appropriately controlled randomized trials before the results are sufficient for review by regulatory authorities.

REFERENCE

Meta analysis of randomized trials of ivermectin to treat SARS-Cov-2 Infection.

9.9 out of 10 based on 122 ratings

The Citroen Ami mini EV — the covered mobility scooter

It’s not a car, it’s a Quadricycle

Given that an EV is so impractical for long road trips, and is a “second car”, it makes some sense to have effectively a two seater shopping trolley, covered with plastic. At the moment, there is some loophole in the UK where this is allowed on the road, but doesn’t require a drivers license. Bureaucrats are bound to change that any second.

It looks ideally suited to slow London and Paris traffic and tight parking spots. But in higher speed Australian and US cities, I suspect accident stats would look ominous if the 485 kg plastic buggy met a two ton SUV at normal driving speeds. Not that it can do normal driving speeds. At 40km/hr top speed, its probably too slow to be legal on Australian roads, and too fast to be legal on sidewalks.

The sunroof is cute in cold climates, but here in Aus it might cause second degree burns and heat stroke in January. It has a 6kW motor and 5.5kWh battery pack — can it run an airconditioner AND a motor for half an hour?

I would be amazed if this were legal to drive unlicensed (or even licensed) on most Australian roads, but I haven’t asked. It may “take off” in Europe like the Mini did during an oil price crisis. There are no right hand drive options. Here in the vast suburbs, with a top speed of 45km/hr it will be hated by every other driver. Perfect for school zones though.

From Tonyb in comments:

No, don’t laugh, but is this the future of Electric cars, because whether we like it or not, the EV is the way most countries are heading. The Citroen Ami comes to the UK in a few months after taking Europe by storm(ish)

Its a 2 seater that will do 43 miles  (60km) on a charge which apparently covers the majority of journeys. I can see it in urban places but not to drive across country, but it wouldn’t be legal anyway on our motorways. Top speed 28mph (40km/h).

The thing is that for an electric car its very cheap at around £6000. Most electric cars over here are around £25/35,000. So it becomes realistic as a second town car and you keep your grown up fossil fuel one. At £30,000 the EV is likely to be your only vehicle and an EV as a first car is unlikely to be a good idea.

So, would it work in Oz’s urban centres?

Unlikely to be available in Australia

There is a webpage with a “.au” domain, and perhaps a theoretical Australian sort of model, with a canvas roof, and a top speed of “45km/hr”.  CarPrice suggests it costs $8k in Australia. I doubt it is sold here at all. Wheels Mag had it on their wish list last November.

The Citroen AU page ought to be reported for false advertising, claiming that it works “without emitting CO2”. In Australia that would only apply to homes with solar that only charge at lunchtime, or in SA on a windy day (but not during a storm). Otherwise, it’s 60% fossil fueled.

9.8 out of 10 based on 42 ratings

China wants this war

The eye-opening video about Chinese people in Ukraine, who weren’t evacuated, and who were “permitted” by the CCP to be excited at the arrival of Putin’s tanks, even hanging out Chinese flags to welcome their Russian comrades until suddenly they realized that wasn’t such a good idea. The CCP Flags were hurriedly packed away and some went so far as to pretend to be Japanese… because some of the malevolent intent here is just so toxic and word was spreading.

The commentator here, SerpentZA (Winston Sterzel), did videos of what was happening in China that I also posted on during the earliest days of the Wuflu — literally Feb 2nd, and Feb 8th, 2020.

A South African who lives in China — he has unusual insight.

H/t David, and one other, sorry, I must find.

9.4 out of 10 based on 51 ratings

Russian-linked groups donated to anti-frakking Green groups because they love the planet right?

Who were those Useful Idiots…

Vested interests, Shadow of money, art, Jo Nova.Strategically, Russia would be crazy if it weren’t funding Green Groups to scare the West out of using its own resources and hobbling its own energy grid.

Russia has the motive, the means and the opportunity. Ask not whether Putin  was funding some Greens, but whether Putin would not be.

These dark money trails across international borders are almost impossible to pin down, but there are clues, leaks and links suggesting Russia was sending hundreds of millions of dollars to support anti-fossil-fuel Green environmentalists.

Yesterday Russian troops did a hostile takeover of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. So in that spirit it’s time to ask if Russia was funding Western Greens was it preparing for War or just worried about walruses?

Would Good Global Citizen Russia say No Thanks to a chance to gain dominant control of a key strategic market?

A lesson in energy masochism

The Wall Street Journal / The Australian

A mere 15 years ago, countries in the EU produced more gas than Russia exported. Yet European production has plunged by more than half during the past decade. Putin has happily filled the supply gap.

In 2020 Russia exported nearly three times more gas than Europe produced. What’s amazing is that Europe increased its reliance on Russian gas even after Gazprom repeatedly suspended pipeline exports to Ukraine.

Europe still had the gas, it just needed to be convinced not to use it:

Europe had an estimated 966 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable wet natural gas resources as of 2013, about enough to supply the EU for 60 years. Much of this is located in eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. But France, Britain, The Netherlands and Germany are also sitting on shale deposits.

In 2014, a NATO bigwig and former Prime Minister of Denmark claimed the Russians were fuelling the opposition to frakking.

Former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen blamed Russia for fuelling the fracking opposition. “Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations – environmental organisations working against shale gas – to maintain dependence on imported Russian gas,” he noted in 2014.

“I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations — environmental organizations working against shale gas — to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas,” said Rasmussen…

According to DeSmog (remember them?) this was revealed at a London’s Chatham House event in 2014 and was not supposed to be leaked (or maybe it was?). DeSmog’s entire ammunition against this quote is that Rassmussen later said “it was my interpretation”, which confirms that he said it.

Four years later US congressmen were releasing reports describing potential funding chains from Russia to non-profit environmental groups.

Russian-funded environmental group gave millions to anti-fracking groups

Kevin Mooney, Washington Examiner, June 14, 2018

Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, who chairs the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, released a report in March that explores Russia’s motives for disrupting America’s energy sector.

“Russia benefits from stirring up controversy about U.S. energy production,” Smith said in a press release. “U.S. energy exports to European countries are increasing, which means they will have less reason to rely upon Russia for their energy needs. This, in turn, will reduce Russia’s influence on Europe to Russia’s detriment and Europe’s benefit. That’s why Russian agents attempted to manipulate Americans’ opinions about pipelines, fossil fuels, fracking and climate change. The American people deserve to know if what they see on social media is the creation of a foreign power seeking to undermine our domestic energy policy.”

Smith’s report describes the Russian scheme to use nonprofit entities to influence and sway U.S. public policy and public opinion against fracking. The evidence in the report shows that Russia has been using U.S. environmental groups to spread what Smith aptly describes as “propaganda” to undermine America’s natural gas revolution.

National Guard of Russia

Росгвардия

The SeaChange Foundation, in San Francisco has apparently given out “about $400 million” between 2007 and 2015 to “environmental groups that have worked to block fracking and pipeline construction that make natural gas development and distribution possible.” Downstream recipients include the  Tides Foundation, which received $8 million, and the U.S. Climate Action Network ( $7.3 million). SeaChange also gave $30 million to the Energy Foundation which then funded the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

A 29-year CIA veteran Kenneth L. Stiles analyzed the links, and followed the money, as much as anyone could. The dollars track back from local Virginia green groups right through one or two layers of NGO’s and back to opaque Foundations in Bermuda which were set up by people who also used to work with a Russian Minister and friend of Putin.

Could be a coincidence…

CIA Veteran Sees Russian Connection to 2 Groups Opposing Fracking, Pipelines

Kevin Mooney, Aug 25, 2017, TheDailySignal

Two of these local environmental groups “are, without a doubt, agents of influence to Moscow through [a] networking system of shell companies and foundations,” Stiles said.

The Russians “executed a political agenda with little or no paper trail,” the letter explains, by using a Bermuda-based shell company, Klein Ltd., “to funnel tens of millions of dollars” to a San Francisco-based nonprofit called the Sea Change Foundation that focuses on climate change.

The Sea Change Foundation then moves the money in the form of grants to other nonprofit environmental groups such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters Education Fund.

SeaChange Logo

Klein Ltd, the shell company that supplies the money operates out of Bermuda and isn’t required to disclose the identity of donors. Klein itself was formed by a law firm in Bermuda called Wakefield Quin. The top administrators of that, in turn, apparently have also held top positions in investment groups owned by a Russian Minister and friend of Putin:

The Russian connection with Klein, and from there to Virginia, comes in the form of Bermuda-based law firm Wakefield Quin, which was instrumental in Klein’s formation in March 2011. The law firm shares the same address with Klein and 20 other companies, congressional investigators determined.

Wakefield Quin’s top lawyers and administrators have held what the lawmakers’ letter to the treasury secretary describes as “directorship positions” with an investment group owned by Leonid Reiman, “a Russian minister of telecommunications and a longtime friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

Having friends of Putin helping you save your environment takes on a whole new flavour now.

________________________________________

9.6 out of 10 based on 70 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

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Friday Open Thread

Too much to discuss still.

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There were Bigger Floods and Rain-bombs in the 1800’s

If only the $3 million dollar a day ABC could afford a science team that could do as much research as one unpaid volunteer does in a day?

Thanks to Cliff Ollier and Ken Stewart for the BOM graph of past Brisbane Floods. Clearly things were worse in the 1800s.

If CO2 has any effect perhaps it reduces flooding?

Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane Flood Graph, Historic Levels.

There have always been big floods in Brisbane       | BOM Source   |  KensKingdom

One day when the ABC finally gets the Internet they’ll be able to find official pages like “Known Floods in the Brisbane and Bremer River Basin“. And one day the half billion dollar BOM agency will be able to update graphs like this within a week of a new flood peak, like bloggers did (above).

Ken Stewart went looking for lost Rain Bombs and found them

As Ken reports the ABC made a fuss over three Queensland sites recording more than 1 metre of rain in just four days. But neither the ABC or the BOM is telling Australians that there have been at least nine similar “Rain Bombs” before and most of them were more than one hundred years ago.

I went looking at Climate Data Online for four day rainfall totals over one metre, to compare with the recent totals above at Mount Glorious, Pomona, and Bracken Ridge. For a start, Pomona’s BOM station has been closed for years, and Bracken Ridge is not listed at all, so those reports are from rain gauges external to the BOM network and can’t be checked.  That’s OK.  In about half an hour I found the following four day rainfall records.

Crohamhurst 4/2/1893 1963.6mm
Yandina 3/2/1893 1597.8mm
Tully Sugar Mill 13/02/1927 1421.3mm
Palmwoods 4/2/1893 1244.6mm
Buderim 3/2/1893 1150.3mm
Bloomsbury 20/01/1970 1141.8mm
Dalrymple Heights 6/04/1989 1141mm
Innisfail 3/04/1911 1075.8mm
Nambour 11/1/1898 1013mm

1893 was a wet year!  Crohamhurst had 2023.8 in five days, and Brisbane had three floods in two weeks in February and another in June.

And there is no such thing as a “rain bomb”, a term invented to make it sound unprecedented.  This was an entirely natural and normal rain event.  Slow moving tropical lows drift south every few years in the wet season, producing a large proportion of Queensland’s average rainfall.

It’s another Redpill moment. Spread the news. Australians need to know the media and the BOM are not giving them the whole truth. Has anyone in the BOM called up the ABC and corrected their mistake? Isn’t that their job?

9.8 out of 10 based on 100 ratings

Thursday Open Thread

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The devastating floods of Brisbane in 1893

At least eight people have died in dreadful flooding in South East Queensland and Brisbane. The slow moving rain system moved south through NSW, inundating towns, and has arrived in Sydney and surrounds, where evacuations have begun.

Despite the pain, some are already exploiting the situation for their climate religion or their retirement plan. What was torrential rain is now a rain-bomb, and to stop floods they yell at us that the Climate Change Emergency must be our priority!

A few days ago the floods in Brisbane peaked at 3.85m. Apparently this was due to a surplus of coal fired power or a lack of wind turbines, or something like that. But this photo below, was taken in Brisbane 129 years ago, when there were almost no coal turbines anywhere in the world, and CO2 levels were ideal, yet floods reached 8.3m.

1893 Brisbane Flood

Not climate change: the flood waters rose to 8.3m.

And in the land of flood, fire and drought, it keeps happening. In 1974, floods in Brisbane reached 5.45m. In 2011 the waters were 4.46m deep. Obviously things have changed a bit: the Wivenhoe dam wasn’t there during the first two floods, and the hydrology of city streets is not like it used to be. Nonetheless the flood of 1893 was shocking.

An incredible 907mm or 35.7 inches of rain fell in a single 24 hour period. That was at Crohamhurst on the Sunshine Coast. If that isn’t a rain-bomb, what is?

Brisbane floods 1893, Poul C Poulsen ANMM Collection

Brisbane floods 1893, Poul C Poulsen
ANMM Collection |

The 1893  Black February Flood was not just one flood but three floods in a row in one month that caused 35 deaths. Another 190 were hospitalized.

The tide gauge in the city reached 8.35m, which was almost as high as the 8.43m rise recorded in floods in 1841. (Imagine how bad that flood was?)

Both the Victoria bridge and the Indooroopilly Railway bridge collapsed.

 

1893 Brisbane Flooding, Photo

Trove. National Library of Australia.

 

Indigenous people, apparently knew of the risks of flooding and built their camps on higher ground. Probably, flooding has been going on since time began. It is said that they tried to warn the settlers not to build to close to the river but the settlers did it anyway.

Broisbane Flood 1893

Trove. National Library of Australia. |  Click to enlarge or follow the link to read in full.

.
Shocking footage though a few days ago:
Brisbane.


Lismore (which is definitely not Brisbane, sorry to mix themes):

 

Addendum: It’s a Cult:

The unvaccinated are not allowed to fill sandbags. Better to flood a home than let an unvaccinated person volunteer:

Volunteers need vaccination to sand-bag

Volunteers need vaccination to sand-bag

On a lighter note, kangaroos do jump through houses.

Best wishes to everyone affected by flooding.

9.9 out of 10 based on 65 ratings

America’s National Renewable Energy Lab warns a “tidal wave” of wind and solar waste is coming

Who will pay for the cleaning up job?

By 2050, the world will be throwing out 2 million tons of wind turbines and 6 million tons of solar panels every year.

One reason the world may be throwing away so much not-so-renewable waste is that recycling it costs ten times as much as what is recovered.

Who would have thought that collecting low density energy in extreme environments would create megatons of tough, non-biodegradable infrastructure, embedded with toxic heavy metals?

Graveyard of the green giants: It’s the hidden cost of our dash for windpower – thousands of decommissioned blades that are so difficult to recycle, they are just dumped as landfill,

writes TOM LEONARD, DailyMail

Scientists at America’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory have warned that in the next few decades, the world faces a ‘tidal wave’ of redundant blades that will number ‘hundreds of thousands, if not more’.

By 2050, it’s predicted that the world will need to dispose of two million tons of wind turbine blade waste every year. In the UK, the volume already exceeds 100,000 tons per year.

The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that by 2050, up to 78 million tons of solar panels will have reached the end of their life and the world will create another six million tons of photovoltaic waste every year. Where to put all of that is potentially an even bigger headache than the turbine blades. It’s very complicated to recover the more valuable materials, such as silver and silicon, used in solar panels.

Research suggests the cost of recovering the materials outweighs the cost of extracting what can be reused by a ratio of ten to one. In other words, if the cost of recycling is $10 you get only $1 back.

And unlike wind turbine blades, solar panels contain toxic materials such as lead that can contaminate the ground as they break down, so dumping them in landfill sites poses serious issues.

And what about the lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars? Here, too, there’s a money issue. Japanese researchers say the value of the materials that can be recycled from them is about a third of the cost of the recycling operation, while it’s five times cheaper to mine new lithium than extract the old lithium from batteries.

Did you know that when you virtuously shelled out £45,000 on a Tesla Model 3?

Scale is difficult:

h/t Steve H

10 out of 10 based on 86 ratings

Tuesday Open Thread

9 out of 10 based on 14 ratings

Just like that: Germany U-turns, and wants unfashionable energy like nuclear, coal, and gas

All it took was a War.

Policies based on fashion can be dead-set one day and gone the next. Until Saturday Germany was about to close its last nuclear power plants, gas production had been falling for 20 years and it planned to phase out coal plants by 2030.

Germany was the largest energy consumer in Europe, but was also determined to pursue Energiewende, the policy of transitioning from fossil fuels.

On Sunday all that changed:

Nuclear, coal, LNG: ‘no taboos’ in Germany’s energy about-face

By Christoph Steitz, Riham Alkousaa and Maria Sheahan, Reuters

In a landmark speech on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz spelled out a more radical path to ensure Germany will be able to meet rising energy supply and diversify away from Russian gas, which accounts for half of Germany’s energy needs.

“The events of the past few days have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is decisive not only for our economy and the environment. It is also decisive for our security,” Scholz told lawmakers in a special Bundestag session called to address the Ukraine crisis.

This will include building two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, one in Brunsbuettel and one in Wilhelmshaven, and raising its natural gas reserves.

Graph, gas production, Germany, 1998 - 2020

Graph, gas production, Germany, 1998 – 2020 | Statista

An energy crisis is also a security crisis.  Germany cancelled the Nord Stream gas pipe that would have brought even more gas from Russia.

Germany follows the UK and France in shifting energy policy away from unreliable intermittent green power. Last September the UK announced they were getting into small modular reactors. By October they were putting nuclear power ahead of the intermittent unreliables as a way to transition to “Net Zero”. Late in 2021, France decided to build up to 14 new nuclear reactors.

As of Sunday, Germany is also spending a lot more on their military.

In 2018, one World leader did warn Germany that they were too dependent on Russian gas, and they should have spent more on their military.

Note the reference to the corruption that plagues all of the West: “The Former Chancellor of Germany is the head of the pipeline company that is supplying the gas” … “you tell me, is that appropriate?”

9.9 out of 10 based on 84 ratings

The Free world fights back. Anonymous hacks Russian state TV and government sites. Twitter is part of the war effort: #Ukraine

The World watches Ukraine. As the citizens are turning themselves into an army, they are being trained on Twitter, on how to beat tanks, pick strategic targets, and of course, there will be a propaganda campaign. Nothing can be verified.  Except for the remarkable bravery of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who knocked back an offer to be evacuated, and is fighting with the army. He is being treated as a hero — the new leader of the free world.

Winning hearts all over the world has a material benefit. Hackers are working to punish Putin, theatening an unprecedented cyberwar that will cripple his websites and expose all his secrets. “We are Anonymous. We are legion. Expect us”. There are reports #Anonymous has already taken down six Russian government websites, and have even hacked into Russian state TV stations as well, showing what is happening in Ukraine. “Soon you will feel the wrath of the worlds hackers many of which may reside in your country.”  Elon Musk has also offered the Starlink Satellites for Ukraine to use.

While Russia used Shock and Awe, the Ukrainians appear to be winning now. Though if Russian armored columns make it through to Kyiv that may change. Putin cannot afford to lose.

With Russian fertility being so low for so long, the people of Russia will not bear many sons lost.

The people of China and Taiwan will be watching too. If Ukraine wins, it may slow Xi.

From #Ukraine




Russian special forces disguised as Ukrainian soldiers captured. Under Geneva convention, they lose the rights to be treated as POW. Ukraine can execute them.

Russians protesting en masse to stop the war.

There are many tweets claiming to show captured Russian soldiers Eg: Getting a cigarette, being allowed beds, described as young new recruits who were told they were on a training mission. Obviously it is in the interest of Ukraine to convince Russians to surrender.

There are instructions on Twitter for people in Ukraine to turn off their geolocation phone trackers because the Russians are using them to identify gatherings.  There are also strategic directions telling Ukrainians to identify and stop the unarmoured fuel transports so that the tanks will run out of fuel.

Meanwhile people in Kyiv are reporting that the Russian tanks made it inside the city on the first day when fog stopped the Javelins from destroying them, and the Russians also had paratrooper support to protect them. The Ukrainians are asking for suggestions on how to stop the  T-72 tanks when they don’t even have fuel for molotov cocktails, and commenters are providing lists of ways to defeat them. Anti T-72 suggestions include using barbed wire to clog tracks, and wires across roads so the tanks have to keep “buttoned up”.

I’m no fan of Twitter, they are no friend of the Free World in the West. But at the moment, the new wars use social media, and it marks an important point in the battle of the people against State power. If people find these links on alternate social media I will replace them. We all need an exit plan from the tyrannical Tech Giants.

It is not all Ukrainian wins:


7.3 out of 10 based on 52 ratings

Sunday Open Thread

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Might be some downside there: Stock market bubble bigger than 1929

John Hussman warns that people may not realize how much stocks are likely to crash

Dr David Evans supplied some interesting links and adds “The biggest theme in markets is that ratios eventually revert to their mean (or average). No, it’s not different this time. A return to average on this graph implies a drop of about 75%.”

 

Hassman Margin-Adjusted P/E (US stock market price-earning ratio (adjusted))

John Hussman: Investors are paying top dollar for top dollar

Why is it so hard to accept that speculative bubbles can burst? Interest rates were driven to zero for a decade. Yield-starved investors chased stocks to valuations beyond the 1929 and 2000 extremes. That speculation front-loaded more than a decade of future market gains into the present. Those gains are now behind us, embedded in breathtaking multiples. If history is any guide, a collapse in valuations is likely to return those gains to the future.

The process of losing speculative gains and recovering them over time is what I’ve often called a “long, interesting trip to nowhere.” It bears repeating that the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bills from 1929-1947, 1966-1985, and 2000-2013. 50 years out of an 84-year period.

Now, it’s not impossible to “grow your way out” of extreme valuations, but the arithmetic can be daunting. For example, given that our most reliable valuation measures are about 3.6 times their historical norms, consider this. Even if these valuation measures were simply to touch their historical norms 30 years from today, prices would have to grow about 4% slower than fundamentals for that entire period (1/3.6 ^ 1/30 – 1 = -0.0418). When you realize that S&P 500 revenues, nonfinancial gross value-added, and nominal GDP have all grown at a rate of only about 4% over the past 10, 20, and 30 years, that 4% valuation headwind would combine to leave the S&P 500 unchanged over those 30 years.

Mish Shedlock: Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash

Is there any escape? In aggregate no. For every seller there is a buyer. In this case a buy-the-dipper. Someone must hold every stock every step of the way down, and pension funds will do just that.

Individually, investors have a choice. You can cash out, lighten up, or try to buy value. … But most won’t. It is extremely difficult to believe what … Hussman is saying, and what I am saying. …

The upcoming decline will shock most bears. Many will buy the dip, then that dip and then the next dip. Some hedge funds will do this with leverage and blow up.

If you just retired and think you have a big next egg and can ride it out in equities, expect your portfolio to fall by 50%, minimum.

If you are age 24 with few assets, you should be rooting for an epic decline. …

For sure, the Fed will “try” to halt the decline. And so will Congress by sloshing money everywhere.

The beneficiary of fiscal and Fed stimulus is highly likely to be gold.

Faith in the Fed is a key driver for gold. And it blew the third major bubble in just over 20 years.

The Fed has no credibility and that should already be obvious. Soon it will be unavoidably obvious.

David Evans also often points out that gold is the currency that competes against the central bankers: “It’s an anti-cheating device”. It’s a rare currency that government can’t print from nothing, and ease into quantitative oblivion.

Though Big Bankers have other tools, such as shorts on a paper-gold market, which discourage punters from running away from fiat dollars into other stores of wealth, like precious metals. And surprise, just as War breaks out, uncertainty goes through the roof and for some reason the price of gold falls $100. None of which make sense but works out well for the Big Bankers. Conveniently.

Dr David Evans: Jo’s other half, mathematician and founder of GoldNerds.

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As the US, EU shrink, Russia grows: In 2020 the US was the worlds largest oil and gas producer

Marc Morano is On Fire

The man from Climate Depot


Morano: ‘In 2020, the United States was back to 1952 with energy, not just independence, but energy dominance’

MORANO: “We are already seeing – the first part of it is in California, $6 a gallon. Gas is already up a dollar. Estimates are seven, $8 a gallon possible with recession if Putin, who we’ve given all of this power to by literally shutting down U.S. domestic energy.

Just a little history lesson here. In 2020, the United States was back to 1952 with energy, not just independence, but energy dominance. We were the world’s largest oil and gas producer. More energy exports and imports, more energy production than consumption and we hadn’t done that since Harry Truman was president. Joe Biden came in at he said the first thing he wanted to do was jail fossil fuel executives. Biden’s energy secretary had done a video singing about no more gasoline, The is world aflame due to global warming.

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