JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Trump intends on solving the Strait of Hormuz crisis by… blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
You couldn’t make this shit up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-12/trump-blockades-strait-of-hormuz-iran-us-war/106556552
1447
Thank goodness. Who wants to let one malicious psychopathic mob extort money for passage on the worlds oceans? Like saying Piracy is OK. Sets a terrible precedent.
Bravo Trump.
“Mr Trump added that he had instructed the navy to intercept ships in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran to transit the strait.
Defending the planned blockade, Mr Trump told Fox News that Iran could not control which ships go through the Strait of Hormuz, declaring that either every ship should have safe passage or none would.”
Iran would be profiting from say, Saudi oil. And weakling EU countries would line up to “agree” to whatever the Iranian terms were.
The ships he would be stopping would be, for example, French or Chinese.
887
Yet another breach of international law by the Trump administration. Trump and his associates are treading a very fine line, they could yet be charged for war crimes.
1073
What law is that exactly?
While you’re looking that up. See if there’s one about putting mines in the water aimed at trade shipping, and if there is a law about safe passage ransoms.
861
You have no clue if any mines exist at all. You are just regurgitating US talking points. Whataboutism doesn’t make waylaying ships going about there business in international waters any less than piracy. I know, its OK when the US does it because it is always , without fail, a righteous cause. The media tells us so.
With so much righteous bombing, invading and regime changing to be done around the world over the last 50 years its little wonder the US gets a bit tired and cranky at times.
849
Actually, I do have a clue. Al Jazeera interviewed Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh and he admitted there are mines. He said there are “technical difficulties” for shipping passing through. The journalist asked with regard to technical difficulties, “I assume you’re referring to mines”. He replied, “Including that”.
Are you asserting he is lying about there being mines? Or do you still think the claim about mines is only a US lie?
What about the ransom for safe passage? Is that another US lie?
582
Could and should have made an effort yourself.
The United Nations Charter (1945) 1: Articles 2(4) and 51 provide the framework for understanding the use of force and self-defense in international law.
The Hague Conventions (1907) 2: Convention VIII relative to the Laying of Automatic Submarine Contact Mines and Convention XIII concerning the Laws and Customs of War on Sea provide rules for naval warfare, including blockades.
The Geneva Conventions (1949) 3 and their Additional Protocols (1977 and 2005): These treaties establish the principles of humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians and the prohibition on using force against civilians.
Say that in 2 weeks time.
Sheesh!
/disconnected…
102
Simon wasn’t specific in what law he claimed was being broken. Why would I go looking for a law that may not exist? Simon seemingly being sure there was one could provide a link to it.
As for me looking up whether there was one about placing mines aimed at trade shipping, or about safe passage ransoms. I actually wasn’t concerned whether there was or not. I was simply making a point.
There are laws around the right to interfere with trade shipping and classifications of being neutral or not when countries are engaged in conflict. My guess is the US can stop ships that are moving through the strait under a ransom payment to Iran because those ships could lose their neutral status by aiding Iran through payments specifically intended to assist Iran. Likewise Iran can stop civilian ships that are assisting the US or Israel because they lose their neutral status. But stopping neutral ships from using shipping channels and forcing them into Iran waters for want of a large fee under threat of destruction seems to be dodgy.
194
And understand that no such international law can be enforced by an international court of law in a sovereign nation unless the governmemt there cooperates
80
Possibly the US don’t want ships trying to navigate the Straits while they are clearing the minefields.
200
Ships can still get through, its not the mines. Essentially if the US turn back a Chinese ship coming out of the Strait, then that could be seen as a provocation.
Beijing would not be amused, but not likely to say much because they are the honest brokers in trying to achieve a ceasefire.
332
Say that again.
Chinese are honest brokers!
250
Yes, enlightened self interest and there is also international kudos to be had.
311
Obviously you were not paying attention on Oct 7 2024. Or on any of the other occasions when real war crimes were committed. I’m totally p’d off with the one-eyed people who give a free pass to everything from dictators, communists, fascists, and just plain self-promoting governments and biased media, then jump on everything that Donald Trump does. It’s not even like these people have tried to help resolve the situation. As far as I can tell, they put every possible obstacle in front of Donald Trump to prevent him from resolving it because to them a perceived failure for Donald Trump is more important than the lives and welfare of tens nay hundreds of millions of Iranian, Israeli and global citizens.
561
I don’t agree with Trump but I understand why he’s doing it. https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/the-iranian-regimes-decades-of-terrorism-against-american-citizens/
10
Including acceptance of the two state solution left fiction as Palestine is not a state
50
Trump’s position is that Piracy is OK so long as the US is doing it. E.g. seizing Venezuelan or Russian tankers on the high seas. That is clearly piracy and against international law, whereas blocking shipping supporting those who carried out unprovoked attack on your nation is pretty standard and entirely permitted under international law.
However what does it matter now. The eco-zealots running every country are getting the low-carbon world they all wanted.
It’s all part of the price that has to be paid to “save the planet” … let’s embrace the change and learn to love the new stoneage.
930
The ships they stopped / seized had contravened maritime law by turning off transponders, flying false flags, or changing registration at sea.
I suppose you can make the case that these ships did that to get around the US imposed restrictions on Venezuelan oil, and argue those restrictions were wrong. But that’s a different argument to claims of piracy when the ships were in breach of maritime law and could legitimately be stopped.
390
You cannot legally sanctions any country except those dealing with your own in your own territory. If Trump wants to ban Venezuelan ships from US ports, he can do that, but interfering with international shipping is illegal.
As far as I’m concerned the criminal action was by Trump and if the Venezuelans used subterfuge to Trump’s criminal behaviour then that is quite legitimate.
Neither the US nor Trump own the world … they have no right to interfere in international shipping as they have been doing.
11
Not true. Sanctions can be placed on one country by another simply for Human Rights abuses within the sanctioned country. Australia currently has Russia, Myanmar, and Zimbabwe on sanctions list.
But in the US – Venezuela case. The US claims Venezuela was dealing with the US in the US territory, in sending drugs and gang disruptors, and engaging in human rights abuses as well as terrorism.
I pre-empted that argument when I said you can make the argument that the sanctions were unfair and the “subterfuge” was a reaction to that. But I also pointed out that what you’re calling “subterfuge” (turning off transponders, using false flags, or changing registration at sea) is actually against maritime law and entitles the US to intervene. If the ships didn’t resort to the illegal activities then you would simply be arguing that the US had resorted to stealing. But the interceptions became legal once the ships broke maritime law. Even if you have sympathy for the ships reason for breaking maritime law.
10
Excellent point. Many people don’t realise the sea blockade of Gaza has always been legal.
121
So Iran was planning to extort millions of dollars from ships going through the Straits of Hormuz. What would they use the money on? Building infrastructure for the betterment of the people or making missiles to bomb Israel and US troops in the Middle East.?
Take a wild guess.
And the big sin is the US stopping ships from being extorted and possibly blown up by errant mines placed all over the Straits by Iran. Iran doesn’t know where they are. Underwater drones from the US are being used to detonate or disarm them so that international ships retching oil and other cargo don’t get blown up. Not US ships as the US doesn’t need Iranian oil.
According to The Conversation, “Before the 2026 conflict, control of the Strait of Hormuz was characterized by a legal framework of international transit passage, overseen by a mix of regional and international actors” So Iran is not losing anything they already had, they are losing something they have taken by force in this conflict.
623
“Take a wild guess. ”
Don’t need to, they would spend the money on repairing the damage done by having the Worlds Greatest Military bomb their country for a month.
The world was running just fine until the Americans went to war.
..and for all the red thumbs, Simon is still right. The Yanks have been practicing piracy a lot recently, deciding who can sail the high seas and who they will capture. Seems all to do with oil, what a surprise… the country that blabbers on about International Law and crap like that is the main one to break it. Kings of hypocrisy!
Who’s going to start whining about China starting a war when they send warships to escort their tankers?
1051
They’ve stopped ships that were flying false flags, not signaling, or changing registration at sea. And permanently stopped some drug boats. What have I missed?
Probably no one given Trump said China should help open the strait. Whether he was just thinking via diplomacy or via a presence in the strait, I’m not sure. But the latter would most likely be more effective and welcomed if it was cooperative.
301
The Iranians have suffered raging inflation for years, getting poorer and poorer. Years ago, they had had enough and have been protesting their plight to no avail. And getting tortured, raped and murdered for their troubles. Why had the Iranian economy fallen apart with so much oil money available? Because the government was spending huge amounts on terrorism abroad, building nuclear bomb technology and building missile technology to attack and destroy US and Israel (as they have been promising). So history shows that the Iranian theocratic/military regime who took over Iran have little regard for the people’s needs. Weapons and terrorism come first.
The Iranians were developing long range missiles that could carry a nuclear warhead into most of Europe, Northern Eastern Africa and parts of India. Which covers the Middle East and Israel, whom they have been threatening annihilation since the religious/military regime took over. Iranian funded Hamas and Hezbollah to do what they do to Israel and Lebanon.The people of Iran were being slaughtered in the thousands, year after year, for objecting to their dictators.
Bombings and beheadings and mass shootings and cars ramming marketplaces were happening all through Europe and other places eg Bondi. A huge swathe of illegal immigrants have been attacking European and US shores and in the UK trying to establish a cruel theocracy. And I could go on…..No, everything hasn’t been fine, KP.
From my suburban block in Australia, the biggest issues I face is my stupid federal and state governments fumbling around trying to sanitise my life with “wokewash” and the garbos threatening to boycott our street. It’s a different world to what many have to deal with.
432
China won’t send in war ships, they will use diplomacy to bring an end to the conflict.
‘Simon is still right’
I second the motion.
332
Never thought I would say it – Bravo Trump !
Of all people involved in this calamity Trump is the last who needs opening of Hormuz Straight but he tries.
The rest just talks.
173
I keep pointing out that MAGA started in Trump’s mind after UN Lima Protocol 1975
30
Iceland put a 300 mile exclusion zone around its island. And, if Iran decides to charge to use its waters, it’s their decision how they use that money.
Or would you like Iran telling the Australian government how to spend its revenue?
333
Iceland’s 200 nautical mile exclusion zone was established at the end of the Cod Wars which ended the livelihoods of many in my home town. One of our trawlermen was killed by a snapped hawser when it was cut by an Icelandic vessel. Many vessels rammed and shot up. Not quite on the scale of the Iran conflict, but these things can have very far reaching outcomes.
230
Those “waters” are also within the UAE and Oman ambits.
You’re geographically deficient.
410
If it’s OK for Iceland then it’s OK for Iran? That’s your argument? Well in that case it’s OK for Malta too. And Switzerland.
140
Why a blockade? I can only assume that destroying ships in transit is so easy that the US cannot guarantee safe passage, the ideal quick solution. Preventing overnight sea mines and missiles requires settlement with Iran.
The other point is the existence of tons of highly enriched uranium which Iran refuses to surrender, demonstrating that their agreement was totally in bad faith. Iran really wants a massive land battle. And what has resulted is a medieval ‘investment’, a siege.
In the meantime I expect the Western roads and piplelines from UAE, Qatar, etc. are saturated with goods, oil and traffic. 10% of the oil through pipelines, maybe more. And other OPEC countries pumping more.
What will be the result of the siege? Financial starvation of the regime. Now Iran cannot pay for those Chinese aircraft defences being shipped.
One of the big questions is the role of nuclear armed giant Pakistan, the country which sheltered Osama Bin Laden and attempted a role as peacemaker.
Outstanding is the fact that Britain and France, the architects of the modern Middle East mess after WW1, do nothing. On the contrary, France is prepared to pay the regime ransom money for safe transport, undermining US efforts.
The Regime has totally into the ‘mosaic’ defence and there is no central command anyway. But Israel and the US, the sworn mortal enemies of the Iranian regime for 50 years, cannot negotiate with the de facto regime which has proven it will not act in good faith.
And the Americans cannot be forced into a gigantic land battle, akin to the disastrous Iran-Iraq was of 1980-86.
So it’s siege time. To see if forces inside Iran can seize control from the Islamic priests or mullahs. The most likely candidates are in the large Iranian army, which is distinct from the IRGC henchmen of the Ayatollah.
There is no choice. The regime still openly intends to utterly destroy Israel and America with nuclear armed missiles or any other way.
That has been the entire objective of the regime for 50 years. And the regime has been behind almost all acts of terror against Jews in every country. You would think in memory of Bondi, Bataclan, Manchester, Nice, Charlie Hebdo, Christmas markets in Germany,… that the US might have some allies. But they might offend their imported mulsim voting blocks.
Meanwhile you can rapidly constructed overland pipelines are underway, supplemented by everything that can move oil. The West cares about little else.
Certainly not the tens of thousands of young people murdered by the regime in recent weeks. No one even mentions them.
654
At least the Green energy policies of every leftist government have been exposed as fraudlent as they run out of oil without any plan. Politiicans have been caught milking petrol prices anyway.
Energy ministers will be in even bigger trouble if people race out to get cheap Chinese electric cars only to find there is not enough electricity generation anyway as oil, gas and coal are kept in the ground
from the UK to Australia, making every country utterly dependent on Middle East oil.
510
Why a blockade? when your Navy is standing off 1000klm for fear of missile attack they need something to occupy their time
212
Two US destroyers went through on the weekend and will presumably stop outgoing traffic.
130
And in one press conference Trump said that 101 missiles were launched at the US Abraham Lincoln. Presumably at once, in a swarm. All were shot down. Some Iranian GPS and intertial guidance missiles have a range of 2000 km. Some double that, multi stage. There is no safe place or distance. For defence, the problem is flight time not distance. In the straits you are locked in channels 2 miles wide and a total width of 20 miles. No maneuvering and seconds of flight time.
160
And mines are much smarter than WW2. They can lie dormant, counting ships, magnetic detection for tonnage, all sorts of triggers like pressure waves. Mines can rise when activated. They are designed not to be found and can sit on the sea floor. The tethered floating mines are easiest but cheapest too and equally dangerous and can be launched from a pickup truck. And if they are not tethered, who knows? Shippping channels are only 150-200 feet (50-80 metres deep)
210
Latest unmanned underwater detection systems track mines down and explode them but it takes time
50
US Navy has dealt with many missiles directed at their carrier battle groups already
40
TdeF,
‘No one even mentions them.’
People wanting to change the state of society need to stay alive until their task is done. There are rare exceptions like Joan of Arc who presumably never knew of her posthumous success. Message, if you want to play with activism, calculate the survival odds and have a think whether early death is for you and your ’cause’.
Geoff S
130
The Strait (that Iran does not own) is either open or closed … Iran wants to extract payments and allow some preferred shipping through, Trump does not want Iran to profit off the back of Freedom of Navigation through the Strait
.
Such that Trump has announced that any shipping that has paid this illegal ‘tax’ on trade and navigates the Strait will be confiscated.
.
This is a perfectly rationale response to Iran.
502
“The Strait (that Iran does not own) ”
Do we own any ocean off the coast of any country? Is there any ‘law of the high seas’, or any ‘EXCLUSIVE economic zone’, any ‘fishing rights’?? Where’s the 12-mile limit in Hormuz?
Remember the whining when China sent its warships around Australia. You’d think we owned every inch of the ocean to 370Km out.
42
Someone mentioned whataboutism above. Stay on topic.
64
People can walk past your house on public land, but it’s not quite the same when they are obviously casing the joint. And China does cut cables.
160
I remember the media claims undetected warships, earlier they claimed undetected Chinese warships entered Sydney (Port Jackson) Harbour.
No, the Harbour visit was not publicised for whatever reason, but our surveillance includes the Jindalee Operational Radar Network (over the horizon), Pine Gap satellite monitoring of the region, ADF surveillance and even commercial published shipping data and locations except when ships turn off their ID system, however military surveillance does not rely on that.
Over the past week a Sky expert commentator claimed no RAN ships have drone protection installed, I knew he was wrong and checked again, yes they do, notably the three Air Warfare Destroyers have missiles and auto targeting and firing Phalanx gun system that was upgraded not many years ago. System fitted to other RAN ships, not all of them
50
Get your opinion from their ABC. Let them do the thinking for you.
90
The Perth Lithium recycling (or storage, difficult to know which) that went up in smoke yesterday was storing 70 tonnes of lithium batteries. Fire took five hours to stop. Now they are worried about the on-site water being contaminated. Still no mention of any EPA requirements.
30
Sorry, meant to be a new topic.
10
I wonder what those special force soldiers and paratroopers have been deployed to do?
Maybe secure islands and deny Iran control?
20
Seems those islands other than Kharg were grabbed by Iran 47 years ago.
Restoring them alters the international waters of the strait.
50
Yesterday the USN began clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
USN now controls the Strait, not Iran.
Confrontational and a clear challenge to Iran. Will they use their remaining missiles and drones? Expect a spectacular response if they do!
Meantime the US controls about 80% of the World’s oil.
340
The real story is about exposing the insurance scam run by the British system of control, this is one of many disclosures that will occur from direct action.
230
Buffett isn’t British.
10
The ‘World Order’ took off when Nathan Rothschild received news of Wellington’s victory at the Battle of Waterloo, a full day ahead of any one else, and ended when Trump cut off the City of London from the Five Eyes (FVEY), to stop the Deep State from profiting from the war against Iran. The US did not share intelligence with Starmer that the US was going to attack Iran. Lloyd’s of London was blindsided. The 33 Freemasons of the City of London Corporation Court held an emergency meeting. Starmer held an emergency Cobra meeting. Trump stepped in with his plan to replace Lloyds and the City of London criminal class with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The DFC has launched a $20 billion reinsurance program for maritime reinsurance, in particular including war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf region. Iranian money was being laundered through banking systems in the United Kingdom. The Chatham House Rules protect the British and Iranian money launderers. Leaks indicate that the war on Iran was used to create a reset of the CIA, by neutralising Brennan and the CIA Operations Directorate. The rest of the CIA seem to be working for Military Intelligence and have cut out the British from all US Intelligence organisations. Trumps attack on the BBC is actually delivering results about MI6 and MI5 crimes. That seems to be why people are talking about Jill Dando being murdered by MI5, and the VIP paedophile ring in Parliament, that Andrew Bridgen talks about. Todd Blanche talks about the ‘images of death’ contained in the other half of the Epstein files, not yet released. The White House asks everyone to wait for (Freedom dot gov), and Trump said that this was the worlds most powerful reset. It was President John F. Kennedy’s adviser, Arthur Schlesinger Jr., who proposed breaking up the CIA to reduce its power, suggesting control over covert activities move to the State Department.
90
Such a statement needs confirmation. Define “control”.
40
Influences supply
20
I think you will find that OPEC does.
There are a few issues, production, reserves, trade.
The US consumes mainly its own oil mainly from fracking of shale, self sufficient. The US Canada and China are not in OPEC.
OPEC controlling 80% of the world’s total proven oil reserves.
OPEC member countries currently produce approximately 35% to 40% of the world’s crude oil.
OPEC control over 50% of global crude oil production and 60% of Globally Traded petroleum.
90
And the shortage puzzles me. OPEC and other agreements strike a balance between supply volume and price. We went through this in the 1970s. If you reduce supply the price goes up. So there is a sweet point where you get maximmum total payment with minimum actual shipment. And this is a non renewable reserouce, so minimum shipment has great appeal but you can get angry customers.
Most of the players outside the Arab states could easily ramp up production and shipping. Only 20% is missing and with bypasses with pipelines,trucks, rail, maybe 18%. Other OPEC nations would only have to ramp up total production by 18% to cover the shortfall. And collect more cash. Why not? Maybe they are liking the higher prices? And even in Australia, the government is making taxation/excise windfalls too. What’s not to enjoy?
90
And Australia has always maximized taxation. Even when we produced most of our own petrol, the government inisted on ‘Singapore’ pricing so when OPEC paid games, prices soared and the government cashed in while Australians were paying maximum prices for their own gas! And the government, as now, blamed overseas forces.
160
Price control is socialism, doesn’t work.
40
Also very common in capitalism. Visy board were fined heaps for conspiring with APM to fix prices, over a few good lunches. And with only two steel makers in Australia, each selling the other’s products, it’s almost mandatory. There are often only two suppliers of commodities and very much in their interests to set prices. Even if it is illegal. And the government loves higher prices, excise and GST and massive import taxes, which are never mentioned. The hole RET and Safeguard Mechanisms are hidden from the public and even parliament. No one seems to know about them and there is no oversight.
80
Comedy spot.
The clue is in the name of”Verity”.
LOL.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360962750/it-time-aunty-helen-return-why-extraordinary-times-call-extraordinary-measures
30
The last thing NZ needs right now is Hillen Clork.
50
The worry is may we may be being forewarned.
30
The worry is that we may be being forewarned.
00
Where is Al Pinocchio’s agreement with Singapore going after Iran once again reneges on its agreement to open Hormuz to shipping??
Without supply independence for crucial resources Australia is headed for disaster!!
Never fear our fearless moron that identifies as an energy minister will save us???
330
Perhaps our fearless moron could help Australia?
The Karrick process is a low-temperature carbonisation and pyrolysis process of carbonaceous materials. Although primarily meant for coal, it also could be used for processing of oil shale or lignite (brown coal) or ANY CARBONACEOUS MATERIAL. These are heated at 450 °C to 700 °C in the absence of air to distill out synthetic fuel, oils and syngas.
Compared to the Bergius process the Karrick process is cheaper, requires less water and destroys less of the thermal value.
In Australia, during World War II the Karrick process plants were used for shale oil extraction in New South Wales.
230
The serious environmental problem with shale is that if you dig it up and extract the oil, it occupies more room and the overburden is bigger than the hole. A mighty mess.
Fracking is so much better. And coal seam gas.
140
Google Sasol Chemicals!! South Africa has been using the Fischer Tropfsch technology since 1952. Two huge plants at Sasolburg & Secunda. Sasol is listed on Johannesburg & NewYork stock exchanges.
Name the fuel or chemicals / derivatives produced from oil & you’ll find Sasol produces equivalents from low grade coal in abundance. The world had economic sanctions against South Africa but we were energy independent. Crude oil was stored in disused coal mines all interlinked with pipelines to refineries. Never saw a fuel or electrical shortage until of course the country was handed over to the current administration.
If technology for oil from coal industry is needed there’s a huge pool of expertise to be had!!
40
What a shame that Madeleine King is not in the top layer of the Labor party.
30
FWIW
“The Lies Surrounding China’s SUVs: Not All Fast Charging, Not $20K, and Cannot Eliminate Fossil Fuel”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/04/lies-surrounding-chinas-suvs-not-all-fast-charging/
110
China’s EV manufacturers are, by PLA orders, dumping those vehicles in foreign markets to destroy competing companies and drive them out of the market.
At which time they will have the world by the short and curlies, just the way they do with solar panels, and a whole lot of other products.
AnAls new regulations on vehicular emissions will see Australians directly subsidising those Chinese manufacturers.
20
FWIW – looks like you’ll have to wait longer
“NEWS YOU CAN USE: The anti-ageing tools biohackers are counting on to live to 150. ““It’s interesting that despite all the developments in medical science in the past 30 years, that world record for human ageing hasn’t been beaten. . . .In fact, despite more people than ever celebrating their 100th birthday, there are still only 77 people known to have reached 115.” ”
https://instapundit.com/789197/#disqus_thread
30
“there are still only 77 people known to have reached 115.” ””
Of course! Guys who are taking all the life-extending stuff in their forties will need until 2095 to show it works!
Its no good giving all that stuff to broken old farts in their 70s and expecting them to live to 115, even if the billionaires are trying hard. They’ve already ruined their bodies.
For the plebs living off a supermarket, those behind the baby-boomers will live shorter lives.
“While the Biblical figure Methuselah is claimed to have had a lifespan nearly spanning 1,000 years, “… that was when the water envelope around the earth stopped incoming high-energy radiation. When that collapsed, causing Noah’s flood, Earth’s oceans formed and our lifespan dropped.*
*Religious advice, given to me straight from a Man of God, do your own research…
30
Like so many benefits of modern accredited science, the dramatic increase in the production of and resultant improved access to mental health professionals, along with the development of psychiatric drugs, has produced an easily observable corresponding improvement in general mental health.
This is most evident in Canada.
71
Honk,
Convince me that there has been an actual increase in ailments of the mind requiring medication, as opposed to an increase in diagnosis requiring bigger business for big pharma.
Medicated cases that I have seen as a non-medico give me an impression of parental failure to educate and cope. Then I see the horrible statistics about the extent of illegal drug use in Australia and mentally allocate some blame to drugged-out parents. They have increased the stats of road accidents, so why not an increase in child misbehavior?
Geoff S
90
Geoff Sherrington,
Americans aren’t noted for the dryness of their wit, but Honk is an exception.
Let me try to rehydrate his comment:
120
So 82% are going untreated. And they can vote.
70
Terrifying, isn’t it.
Time to wind back voting “rights” – minimum age 25 and only men. 😀
30
You forgot property ownership?
10
FWIW
“A Pragmatic Perspective on the Iran Conflict
April 12, 2026 | Sundance | 254 Comments”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/04/12/a-pragmatic-perspective-on-the-iran-conflict/
30
Sundance’s last diamond point is a nonsense, with the exception of the bit where he rightly concludes that Israel is not controlling the USA’s and President Trump’s actions.
02
Victor orban of Hungary loses election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15727021/Peter-Magyar-elected-Hungarys-Prime-Minister-New-leader-thanks-voters-defeats-Trump-ally-Viktor-Orban-16-years-power.html
60
It’s been a bad week for VP Vance, the real estate magnate and the son-in-law in the negotiation and diplomacy world.
43
Rigged. An orchestrated loss so the EU can go to war with Russia in a futile effort to save themselves.
102
Its looking like a super majority and it hasn’t been rigged, there was a record breaking mass turnout.
The $90 billion can now be taken out of Brussels to end hostilities.
12
The EU couldn’t fight its way out of a wet paper bag.
They’ll not go to war with Russia.
Russia may well go to war with the EU though.
10
After 16 years in power there are lots of people who think that is enough. (I don’t a majority of readers here think that 12 more years of Albo would be great).
It seems that the new Prime Minister isn’t that different from Orban. He may not be as accomodating as the EU want, especially where VETOing can mean lots of “goodies” (Although the EU has run out of money).
30
He is no friend of Putin and maybe he will do some cleaning of Orban’s swamp
28
FWIW
“Renewables’ Giffen Take”
https://quadrant.org.au/news-opinions/doomed-planet/renewables-giffen-take/
30
Let’s hope Trump can achieve something with the blockade and I hope other countries join in to defeat the mad Mullahs.
BTW air travel is the safest way to travel and is thousands of times safer than the most dangerous choice and that is by riding motorcycles.
Here’s the quote from Statistica.
“Overall safety of air travel”
“The overall trend downward in air travel fatalities is notable given that the volume of passenger air traffic has increased by more than 66 percent since 2004. Indeed, when considered in terms of the number of accidents per distance travelled, air travel is statistically the safest form of transport. For example, in both the United States and the United Kingdom, air travel is many thousands of times safer than the most dangerous form of travel – motorcycle riding”.
50
“the number of accidents per distance travelled”
Which is fine when you measure your life by the miles you travel, but not so good when you count hours of life spent travelling. A flight from here to South Africa becomes a drive from Melbourne to Brisbane.
10
Hospital staff refer to motorcycle riders as “accidents waiting to happen” and “temporary Australians” because of the number that come through their casualty departments.
20
There is currently more traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Mostly Chinese and Iranian.
I have not seen any USN vessels in the marine traffic but they are inclined to turn off their AIS trackers.
There are no tankers shown loading at Kharg island.
I can see Iran pushing China and US closer to conflict. Selling a few more BEVs is not going to offset the economic impact of reduced oil supply.
60
‘I can see Iran pushing China and US closer to conflict.’
No its not like that, Beijing is staying out of this religious war and will continue diplomatic efforts to get a ceasefire.
12
Our champion guvment in Cantburra keeps harping on that renewables would solve our fuel problems, well how about we take a look at countries that have high levels of unreliables, how are they doing, countries like Spain and New Zealand.
131
They always talk in hand waving generalities because their is no working example anywhere, even after decades and trillions spent. Despite claims of great efficiency, cost saving and wall to wall salivating “success” stories the world cannot point at a country, state or region where it works.
The transition to “renewable” energy is the never ending fantasy story like “closing the gap” or the UN achieving anything.
130
FWIW
https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/hfmj9ftxiaevo4a.jpg
Canberra summarised
30
Plenty of wind in SA and no need to burn diesel to make electricity.
Give it another month or two; the sun will be lower and the wind will take annual leave. I wonder if SA will have diesel to burn to make electricity.
It would be very sad indeed if a diesel shortage resulted in SA rationing electricity. Please do not charge your BEV today, we are low on diesel.
220
No diesel, but we in SA can rely on the Labor Government to deliver brown coal generation.
40
Providing Victoria is not facing the same dilemma with low sun and wind on annual leave.
The wind takes leave right across the country. It is not State co-ordinated like the school holidays. More like an extended Christams-New Year holiday but close to the middle of the year.
40
Last year in a comment conversation, someone from OS asked if Australia had an equivalent name for “dunkelflautes”. I answered “autumn”.
50
At midnight when SA was importing heavily mainly from Vic, they were at 88% brown coal, good thing SA shut down their brown coal mines and power stations.
40
SA has suffered a lack of wind overnight, 60% imports , due to the high hanging around down there.
40
And in one press conference Trump said that 101 missiles were launched at the US Abraham Lincoln. All were shot down. Some Iranian GPS and intertial guidance missiles have a range of 2000 km. Some double that, multi stage. There is no safe place. The problem is flight time not distance.
50
SA has plenty of Gas generation to fill any shortage of wind and solar…
….and there is always Victoria to steal from !
40
Chad:
I wasn’t aware that the SA government had reversed its policy of No More Gas.
Still, a lot of those gas generators can switch to diesel assuming that we have any in stock.
20
G3, i suspect that would be a policy of,… “no more gas…..unless we have to “!
SA has over 2 GW of gas generation available,….if needed !
40
‘Brainless human clones’: Inside controversial startup building bodies for brain transfers
As reported by Wired, these non-sentient primate structures would contain all vital organs except the brain. The purpose of these structures would be to serve as a source for donor tissues and a suitable alternative to animal testing.
However, according to the MIT Technology Review which thoroughly investigated the startup and their motives, the findings are more disturbing.
As per investigative report, beyond organ harvesting the ultimate vision of startup is to reportedly create humans without brains, calling them “brainless clones.”
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1397954-brainless-human-clones-inside-controversial-startup-building-bodies-for-brain-transfers
I suspect a few are posting here already.😆😆
40
We have quite a number of these humans without brains available here in Australia. Concentrated in Melbourne and Canberra.
90
I asked CoPilot to explain why the CSIRO ACCESS model gets tropical oceans wrong:
ACCESS tends to warm the tropical oceans too quickly because it does not fully capture the thermostat behaviour of the western Pacific warm pool. In reality, this region is held near a stable temperature by intense evaporation, deep convection, and persistent rainfall. These processes act like a governor: when the surface tries to warm, convection strengthens and removes heat efficiently. ACCESS underestimates the strength and persistence of this negative‑feedback system, so its simulated SSTs rise more freely than observations allow.
A second issue is that ACCESS struggles with ENSO dynamics and decadal variability. The observed record shows long periods of La Niña‑like conditions since the late 1990s, which cool the warm pool and flatten or reverse trends. ACCESS, like many CMIP5 models, produces too many El Niño‑like states and too little multi‑decadal cooling. Because the model’s internal variability does not match the real Pacific’s timing or amplitude, its long‑term trend diverges from the observed one even when the external forcing is correct.
Finally, ACCESS warms the tropical lower troposphere more strongly than observations indicate, and this excess atmospheric warming feeds back onto the ocean surface. The model’s convection scheme tends to shift rising motion eastward and upward too easily, altering cloud cover and radiative balance in ways that favour warming. The combination of a weakened evaporative thermostat, misrepresented ENSO variability, and overly strong atmospheric warming leads ACCESS to produce a positive trend where the real tropical ocean shows neutral or cooling behaviour.
It took a bit of doing to get there. I had to feed it data from the climate model and from measured data but it was quite persistent in making sure I compared apples with apples.
It originally made stuff up and gave a warming trend for the raw data based on what it has been taught. Over time, I will see if it has learnt from that exchange with me.
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I thought that the BOM’s Pacific forecasts are notably wrong compared to forecasts from other countries. Japan always seems to be much better at predicting what’s going on with El Niños and La Ninas.
60
Your exchange implies that AI can, indeed, learn. My non-techy idea is that answers would most likely be consensus, thus not a great leap forward.
Do you think your exchange will alter copilot’s NEXT answer on the topic?
40
My interactions with Grok strongly suggest that AI does indeed learn from interactions and questions.
40
These days I approach GROK with requests framed in the following way.
Role – Tell it who to be like
Context- Give it all the background information (even who you are and what you do)
Command- Tell it want you want it to do
Format- Tell it how you want the output.
Break each query down into individual small steps if necessary, because if anything, you get TOO much info. But that’s Ok because you can still ask it to summarise. Still too long, ask again. Also, I’m old fashioned and still say please and thank you. I heard a comment not that long ago that a lot of electricity could be saved if people didnt use please and thank you to their AI. Then, last week listening to a Joe Rogan podcast and the guest was describing AI psychosis. Yikes!
10
I am told CoPilot can be taught your preferences and the way you like material presented. So it is able to “learn” from your exchanges. I have Microsoft 365 account for the next 12 months and the basic CoPilot version comes with that. I assume it recognises my account.
I will use the next 12 months to assess how much I can teach it.
Getting it to conclude ACCESS was incorrect took a lot of debate but some of that was on my part because I do not distinguish between air temperature and surface temperature. I had to inform it that there was no land in the region we were looking at and it was a net precipitation zone so there is little difference between SST and air temp. However I did use the air temp source as opposed to the SST.
Less than a year ago ChatGPT would not accept that ocean surface temperature cannot sustain more than 30C. Not sure if ChatGPT still thinks it can sustain more than 30C but it is immaterial because both CoPilot and Grok recognise the surface cannot sustain more than 30C.
That temperature limit was a feature of the EPA report that eventually, albeit indirectly, led to rescinding the endangerment finding.
It is quite evident that runaway global warming is impossible if no ocean surface can sustain more than 30C.
I am yet to get CoPilot to reason that the end of the present interglacial is imminent in the geological time frame. It stopped talking to me on that topic when I presented a chart that showed the change in sea level over the past 800kyr has the strongest signal at 23kyr and its multiples. I am yet to get back into that.
If enough engineers and scientists teach CoPilot and Grok and it can “learn” from those exchanges it will be a good thing for science and engineering. But you still have to be careful not to accept its answers as true.
40
I’m still punting on a Central Pacific El Nino.
https://classic.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-106.11,-3.30,530/loc=-109.660,-19.171
11
Rick, not trying to be cute but try asking it “why the CSIRO ACCESS model gets tropical oceans right”
These LLM AI’s take a cue from your input and give you the helpful answer. It will draw from sources appropriate for the task. I’m betting it will give an endorsement of CSIRO with the opposite question.
Better still, don’t ask leading questions.
13
`My version has learnt that access gets the air temperature wrong so it concedes that in the answer but goes on to say that the tos (ocean surface temperature) from access is simulated very well. (I know it has not verified that so it has accepted it from the framing of the question).
It then goes on to say that the model is “right:” in one narrow sense and “wrong” in the sense you have been analysing.
If I had the tos data available, I could prove access wrong there as well because I know it has warming trends everywhere and these regions cannot warm because they are already stuck at the sustainable limit.
60
But they don’t. Australia has had an unfortunate history of getting El Ninos and La Ninas wrong, every single time, for a number of years.
40
Maybe, I’m not arguing with the response, I’m warning about leading questions which the current AI fall for.
13
BoM hasn’t got a quarterly right in at least 20 years.
30
Better still here is the first paragraph
12
That is a trained response and not based on evidence. I would then ask it to verify that statement with actual data. I do not accept anything but actual measured data and, even then, I check the validity of the source.
Any cooling trend invalidates most climate models because they all go in the same direction everywhere until about 2060 when the Gulf Steam collapses and Europe freezes in winter but still as hot as hell in summer.
70
Totally agree with Rick on this point. When did either BOM or CSIRO get it right? As for CSIRO, when do they ever get anything right these days?
70
Starting with anything other than a neutral question is just asking for it. Sure adjust after that to get it to critique itself.
03
‘ … adjust after that to get it to critique itself.’
Not a bad idea, a casual approach.
02
I hope so. Google AI does not seem to learn anything. If I go back later it starts off again where it started the first time.
40
Google Gemini has a free personalised version that will remember chats. I do not use it so do not know how it is invoked. Maybe use your Google log in if you have one.
I am certain that if you ask Gemini, it will be able to tell how to have it remember chats.
Google usually uses free access to build a base and then the adds start coming. You can avoid the adds by subscribing. JoNova is one of the rare sites where it is purely voluntary chocolates based. Everyone else has some sort of subscription model.
Peter Ridd is developing his Youtube presence. DDG assist suggests his Youtube income would be around $1800 per month. He has 32.2k subscribers.
It is rewarding to see AI take up your knowledge base so you avoid reteaching. However that teaching generally does not go into “saved” memory because there are privacy implications. If you were to develop a low cost fusion reactor, you may not want your AI assistant disclosing that to the world.
CoPilot has already indicated to me that it is aware of the files I have on my computer even without opening them.
20
What I find amazing is that Iran has promised for 50 years to kill everyone in Israel. And America. In the last 50 years they have sponsored murder on every continent, Allah Ahkbar.
Now they have tons of enriched uranium and very accurate two stage missiles, so they can drop an atom bomb on all of Europe.
But we are told Trump is breaking ‘international law’ by trying to stop murder on a scale not seen since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
I would have thought killing tens of millions of people, obliterating an entire country was against international law too, but it seems you have to give Iran the benefit of the doubt, depite the Houthis, Hezbollah, Gaza and all the paid assassins around the world.
At least no one can say they were not warned, as with Mein Kampf or the massive deadly invasion of Manchuria and China for ten years before WWII in the Pacific involved the US and UK and Australia.
It’s a shame there were not enough International Lawyers to stop Hitler or Tojo. Maybe a strongly worded letter or UN Resolution would have done?
290
In Friends of Tehran news:
ABC’s global affairs editor, Laura Tingle, said Trump was being “completely unrealistic”.
“[Nuclear] is pivotal to the relationship between Iran and the United States and also pivotal to the relationship between Israel and Iran,” she said.
“This goes to this argument that Israel, in particular, has been pushing that Iran was very close to being capable of producing nuclear weapons. Most of the evidence doesn’t suggest that.”
Most of the evidence says otherwise:
Iran has a single operational nuclear power station, Bushehr. Fuel for this facility is provided by Russia under a ‘life of facility’ agreement.
Iran has a massive and extensive uranium enrichment industry, with no commercial civilian purpose, primarily producing HEU with between 20% and 60% U235. This HEU has no civilian purpose in Iran’s nuclear industry – but it is feedstock to achieve weapons grade uranium with a vastly reduced number of work cycles through the remnant centrifuge banks.
Iran has evaded IAEA inspections over many years, as it has developed the critical ancillary nuclear weapons technologies – in breach of its NPT obligations.
As summarised by David Albright, this was conducted on a massive industrial scale. As at mid 2025 Iran was a threshold nuclear state, with flimsy legal cover and optionality provided by an Ayatollah’s fatwa against completing the last stages of 30 years of R&D – presumably awaiting completion of the ICBM project.
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/comprehensive-updated-assessment-of-iranian-nuclear-sites-five-months-after-the-12-day-war
The 12 Day War significantly degraded Iranian nuclear capacity. However, the technology knowledge and weapon-quantities of U235 remains in the IRGC’s hands – likely with sufficient enrichment capability at Isfahan (as at November 2025).
Whatever the expert Tingle thinks, the Iranian regime remains a viable nuclear threat. Only with far worse and more dedicated monsters than other regimes.
Apart from Their ABC, nobody else is relaxed and comfortable with this.
170
The ABC is anti democracy, anti American, anti Trump, virulently anti capitalism and currently on strike for more money.
220
And their extortionate threat is a devastating level of control of public opinion which would be completely illegal for any private media company. For good reason. It usually works. The Labor and Green parties desperatately need their ABC/SBS on side to win elections. Corporate Australia too with backroom deals on taxation, especially the Safeguard Mechanism 35% CO2 tax which is not to be revealed to the public. Think of it the next time you fly. It’s not the cost of aviation fuel.
170
Anti Australian as well. At least, the Australia I once knew
161
Godzone continues to debate the energy problem, which appears to be very similar to OZ’s.
Including pumped storage idiocy, while we sit on centuries of coal, and leave our oil untapped.
https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/bryan-leyland-and-john-raine-the-energy-storage-elephant
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FWIW – a claim too far
“WHAT!? Texans being told the Alamo actually is … ISLAMIC!”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/04/what-texans-being-told-alamo-actually-is-islamic/
01
I’ve been there , not sure how Islamics can claim to be Spanish Catholic missionaries.
30
>not sure how… Alamo actually is … ISLAMIC!
It’s obvious by the name Al Amo
Anything beginning with Al or El is Islamic.
El Wood, El Sternwick, Al Bany, Al Bion
10
Al Banese
10
Easy!
Taqiyya is even more versatile than even CO2
10
Why is the minister for energy and climate change just reported as the energy minister?
Draws too much attention to his failings perhaps.
90
This is a good summary of Iran’s position. They have alienated everyone except people who hate Donald Trump. While includes most of the European leaders, the Democrats and Hollywood.
40
This is a dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz:
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
70
Rats getting out with solid pensions before they have to face the humiliation of One Nation asking why the State credit rating is in the toilet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ViEXEG53AU
These people aided the decline of the Victorian economy but will retire with handsome pensions for the rest of their lives.
90
Hoping Allen and co go with them.
30
As I suggested, Gulf oil is only 20%. And there are pipelines. So the rest of the world only has to increase production by say 18% and there is no problem. And that is just simple adjustment for most, a dialable setting on the wall. Production is not limited by supply but by choice, agreement, OPEC.
As Donald Trump now says, tankers are streaming to buy US oil. And our PM is in Indonesia trying to source oil.
He could buy their coal as well as we are not allowed use any more of our own, look for more gas, frack for shale oil or coal seam gas, go nuclear or pick up sticks in the forest for firewood. Some of these restrictions are not just laws, they are inserted into the Constitution of States.
I suppose you could call these restrictions idiocy, but they look like malice or a conspiracy to impoverish Australia and drive prices down. As in America so many politicians seem to hate America, we seem to have the same phenomenon here. Why else would energy poverty be enshrined in the Constitution? “In March 2021, Victoria became the first Australian state to permanently ban hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and coal seam gas exploration by enshrining it in the state’s Constitution.” Was this a requirement of Daniel Andrew’s Chinese friends while the State was locked down with the Wuhan military virus?
80
And this wonderful change to our Victorian Constitution..
” In addition to banning a specific energy source, the Victorian Constitution was amended in 2024 to enshrine the State Electricity Commission (SEC) and mandate that it remains in public ownership and cannot invest in fossil fuel facilities. ” So you can forget turning coal into oil or gas. It’s not just illegal, it’s unconstitutional. So there. Besides, it belongs to the aborigines anyway who in the latest rendition of “Welcome to their country” we have to proudly proclaim that aborigines now also own the ‘air and water’, just like NZ. They could add coal, oil, gas to the list.
110
A useful observation from an American investor, at https://gavinmccracken.substack.com/p/quarter-2-portfolio-update:
A useful rule of thumb is look to the result of a policy to determine the intention of those who implemented it.
60
This will upset the White House Catholics.
‘President Donald Trump has delivered an extraordinary broadside against Pope Leo XIV, saying he didn’t think the US-born leader of the Catholic church was “doing a very good job” and that he was “a very liberal person”, while also suggesting the pontiff should “stop catering to the Radical Left”. (Guardian)
72
I agree with POTUS Donald Trump. Leo is another ridiculous lefty ‘Christian’ leader.
90
FWIW
“WELL DUH NEWS: Trump’s White House Ballroom Can Resume Construction, Court Rules.”
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/scott-mcclallen/2026/04/11/trumps-white-house-ballroom-can-resume-construction-court-rules-n2674299
Via https://instapundit.com/789388/#disqus_thread
10
FWIW – news to some
“We’re Blockading Iran, Not the Strait”
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/04/were-blockading-iran-not-the-strait.php
Via https://instapundit.com/789382/#disqus_thread
20
FWIW
“Plant based meat giant Beyond Meat continues to spiral downwards”
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/plant-based-meat-giant-beyond-meat-continues-to-spiral-downwards/
10