Get ready:
“Australia records its third quietest start to the cyclone season in 50 years.”
ABC news, Jack Kerr
Bravo, I thought. ABC covers a good-weather story… but no, lo, for the climate oracles tell us this is ominous and bigger nastier storms are coming. Be afraid!
This weather is weird?
There have only been four occasions since the mid-1960s when cyclones haven’t crossed the mainland before February.
Only four. Golly! This year is almost as “bad”as the worst of the prehistoric era, i.e. ’68, ’80, ’88).
It’s not like the good ol’ days — when people used to get decent cyclones all the time:
Back in 1870, when Cairns started life as a gold port, four to five severe cyclones would hit the Queensland east coast every decade. By 2010, that average was down to less than two.
Lucky them.
To see the effect of man-made global warming, look hard at this graph below. Spot the… trend.
A high bar means a long slow quiet start to the cyclone season.
At the start in 1964 CO2 was a wonderful 320ppm. Now it is at 400ppm and obviously (when seen through a computer model) high CO2 levels affect cyclones.
The $1.1 billion ABC were not able to add in the CO2 emissions line, which is central to the predictions in this story. So I helped them. I can’t think why they didn’t…
Obviously, with a correlation that “good”, every story on late cyclone seasons needs to explain how climate change is involved. So ABC journalist, Jack Kerr finds a professor who can tell us how this is ominous. (The tea-leaves are terrible).
Quietest in 50 years? Try 500 years
These findings as consistent with research by James Cook University’s Professor Jon Nott, who found Queensland is getting fewer cyclones now than at any point in the last 500 years.
It’s a finding made possible by the discovery that rainfall from cyclones has a unique chemical signature.
However, Professor Nott says increased global temperatures mean that when cyclones do hit, they are likely to be more damaging.
“We are going to probably see fewer, but those that do occur will probably be more intense,” he said.
“The zone that cyclones normally start to be generated in is actually moving further south in the southern hemisphere and moving north in the northern hemisphere.
“We have got no doubt now that humans are starting to show their hand in the behaviour of tropical cyclones.”
In the last 500 years (when the world was mostly cooler) there were more cyclones. So even more warming will… be bad.
Last thought: Farmers in the north need some rain and a few mild cyclones could be handy right now. Credit to the ABC which did at least mention that — though only after the advert for Climate-ChangeTM. We wish the farmers all the best and we hope the ones that come aren’t too big.
h/t Handjive and Don Gaddes
Jon Nott of James Cook: “We have got no doubt now that humans are starting to show their hand in the behaviour of tropical cyclones.
And you’ve got no proof, either. Consensus climate science in a nutshell.
780
”We have no doubt” is now positive evidence of CC without any Scientific explanation of the entire process, ”we have no doubt” how lovely ! where is the Science ?
Ask these people to explain why we go into ice ages ? All they need to do now is add ”we have no doubt” to whatever their thoughts are and that is their Scientific proof !
380
Albert–the blind cannot see. Climate Science isn’t science, it’s a belief system.
30
Exactly Pat, when will people realize that conviction in a personal belief/opinion is NOT proof. ISIS believe selling infidel girls into sex slavery is justifiable, does their belief/opinion make it true?
291
Cyclones (even the threat of a cyclone) are now catastrophic because every man, woman and their dog has a mobile ‘phone and any tree movement due to a breeze greater than 50 knots is shown immediately on national television.
Not to be outdone, the print media sensationalises the event even more.
If the winds go above 70 knots, a media spiral/snowball is formed with the morning TV shows and the print media gang gathering to further sensationalise the event.
I wish they were as keen on covering a few more effects on our society, like the Presbyterians stirring up trouble in their Lakemba churches.
170
It is a disaster. A disaster for alarmists as they have no death and destruction to point to and say “it’s all your fault” …
140
No doubt, no proof. What a great motto for the warmists.
A warmist recently told me that 2014 was the hottest year on record. When I told him he was wrong his response was ‘It’s a matter of opinion.’
When I objected, saying it was actually a matter of fact, his response was: ‘You’re a d—h—.’
He was unaware that such an ad hom was really an admission of failure.
Most arguments with warmists follow this simple procedure, but this is the simplest refinement of the warmist position I’ve seen so far. Didn’t even get to the 97% stage.
130
Sadly, for true believers everything is evidence for their confirmatory bias.
470
They also seem to fall for the “gambler’s fallacy”. One bets on red after a string of blacks, figuriing the other color is “due”. They believe the destruction of hurricanes will balance out, so after a series of “no hurricanes” the next hurricane will be extra destructive to maintain the destructiveness balance.
370
You have hit a very sensitive bull here. The fallacy is in the assumption that the “previous” event effects the “subsequence” event, at frequencies of 1 or 2 per decade!
Prof. Nott claims that his research shows the frequency AND intensity of cyclones. Hence the claim “less frequent but more damaging” should be supported by his data. Where has this been published? I think the statement should be called out and justified. The escape clause may be contained in the phase “likely to be more damaging” – i.e. more property to damage = greater insurance claims – the basis of support for premium hikes! Was he sponsored by Munich-Re?
410
Considering population growth and development, any storm is nowadays likely to be ‘more damaging’ in terms of cost etc. An earthquake in a major city today is likely to be ‘more damaging’ than 100 years ago. The statements are ostensibly correct, but not entirely in context.
180
“An earthquake in a major city today is likely to be ‘more damaging’ than 100 years ago.”
I don’t agree with that. I managed to sleep through a 5.2 earthquake in Santiago, Chile, a year ago. The next morning, you’d never have been able to see that an earthquake had happened. About a month later (when I was back in tectonically stable Britain), an 8.2 occurred off Arica, Chile, near the Atacama Desert. Now, 8.2 is absolutely enormous and, sadly, there were fatalities, but far fewer than you’d expect in a country not prepared, as Chile is, for earthquakes and tsunamis.
10
Just to emphasize: Chile is prepared for earthquakes and tsunamis.
10
Its more like a gambler making a prediction, after 10 reds in row, that we are due for a black within the next 5 rolls.
80
All we can do about cyclones, hurricanes and all tropical storms is record the history, they have become fewer with less intensity, we don’t know why and we certainly can’t influence them
140
We could homogenise the old records to prove that today’s cyclones are the worst ever – as we have done with temperatures.
90
..and sadder still a lot of people believe it.Last night at a local bar I was with several people and this issue was discussed and it became evident that they all believe that man can affect cyclogenesis due to our emissions.One retired academic(political science) said he was extremely worried for his grandchildren- as we all are for differing reasons.Unfortunately this discussion ended with much frothing at the mouths.I tell you- you can’t rationalise with people on the subject of climate change!
340
This is the problem Glen, the brainwashing has been enormously effective and indiscriminate because of the faith based mechanisms at work. Successful propaganda appeals to the heart as well as the head.
Satire maybe the only cure.
260
Perhaps true, el Gordo. But a painful cure. Stand by if we are Charlie Hedbo!
10
Yep brainwashing works. While explaining to my five year old grandson that bubbles in a fizzy drink were produced by carbon dioxide, he was horrified informing me that carbon dioxide was really bad.
The wife thinks the same but won’t discuss it.
40
Trying to rationalise with religion is a well known wast of time.
However the big issue is ego, the ‘believers’ think they are more intelligent then average.
To back down now is a overwhelming threat to their self-esteem.
120
This is actually a new low if you think about it. When you hit on the first link Jo has posted, it points to ABC Emergency. It really looks like this is being used to “cry wolf” with irrelevant information. When it is supposed to be for information with emergency priority.
Seriously, go to http://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/ and look…
…WTF?!
If the information is not emergency related, what is it doing there?! (Common Sense FAIL)
ABC Emergency…If its supposed to be a source of emergency information: it must be clear, concise, and relevant to people in affected areas.
How hard is it?
=> Is there a cyclone coming?
=> When is it coming?
=> Do I have sufficient time for evacuation or should I stay and batten down?
=> What do I need to take with me if I choose to leave?
=> Where do I go to reach the nearest “safe area” of the suburb/town I’m in?
=> Traffic conditions?
etc.
No one cares about BOM records. Everyone cares if a bloody cyclone will be residing in the same space as they are!
390
You mean this?
I wonder if the “worse” is that awful monsoon rain that has just started in Qld?
230
Be careful of all that lightning in monsoon trough lines.Consistent with 400ppmv.WARNING!!
80
The SOI indicated a less than normal rainfall this year and I thought a weak monsoon season
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
40
BOM has an agenda and does not present actual results accurately. The Qld Long Paddock site has better presentation see https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Have a look at the graph for 2011 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=2011 when there were floods in January over large parts of Qld. With the high SOI from July 2010 how come no one thought there could be floods in the coming rainy season (Jan, Feb, and Mar 2011)? The climate in Melbourne results in most of the rain in winter, the climate in Brisbane and north results in most rain in summer. SOI is an indicator for rainfall for the eastern coast of Queensland.
The present SOI appears to be becoming less negative so one can except average rainfall. SE Qld had average rainfall in Jan (at my place 10mm over the 120 yr. average) and we are on track for average rain in Feb. ( over 60mm at my place to date and raining today)
100
Take that back about Melbourne rain you swine, Melbourne receives marginally less rain in winter than summer. Most rain falls in autumn and spring.
20
correct! I can confirm however that with the cool air the water stays on the ground longer in winter and muddy football and hockey fields abound.
10
Actually…it is pouring with rain here atm, a bit out of Melbourne!
10
What next climate bloating? Gaia holding all the wind in will finally result in a huge… err… blow?
200
Yikes you’re right, someone call Trenberth to find the missing Bloating now!!
180
You have to wonder about a persons mental stability when they’re wishing for natural disasters so they can say “I told you so”, we’ve had ambulance chasing lawyers, trash journalists, then somewhere around the release of “Twister” (the storm chasing scientists) it became quite fashionable for scientists to represent a type of doomsday prophet.
It’s all happened before with dire warnings of a coming ice age, overpopulation, peak energy, exploding sun, Y2K, but what’s with the morbid fascination of attempting to scare the hell out of people while throwing all your professional processes out the window?
I know people will say money, position etc.. I can understand a prank however I’d be way too embarrassed to commit myself seriously to this type of public soothsaying, well I’ve got a beard, a dressing gown, I’ll make a sandwich board then stand on the street waving a thermometer yelling at people about the time being nigh for natural disasters, crazy times indeed.
200
It’s about ego. Their ego…Possibly narcissistic personality disorder on the extreme end of the scale?
I don’t know about the rest, but my father was involved with a Govt project (payroll system) that made sure NSW public education teachers still got paid the right amount after when the date ticked passed 31/12/1999. (The system itself would have failed with Y2K bug, had it not been corrected and tested 12 months beforehand)…See that folks? Activism and pursuing “Social Justice” didn’t fix Y2K issues. It was engineers and programmers applying fixes and testing months ahead of the date. There was no hysteria on that end. They had a meeting. They discussed the problem (how to attack it), they applied the fix, they tested, and they solved. Next problem!
You are right though. There is this irrational hysteria going on in this post-modernist BS culture. Very few of the vocal ones are thinking like mature adults. Its all about “feeling”, “believing”, and deceiving. NOT investigating, analysing, thinking things through, verifying, checking, calculating, questioning, etc.
Then again, it could be just plain laziness.
Its easier to blindly “feel”, “believe”, and trick someone else to pay for your BS, than it is to investigate, think, verify, test, question, calculate, etc and pay for your own endeavours.
Climate Change Movement…It’s about feeling, believing, and deceiving.
220
The firm I worked for paid a consultancy $60,000 to check for Y2K bugs. When they got to me I told them I had already checked my programs, the consultant snorted with derision and asked how. I replied, ,I backed up everything, set the computer time to 11:58pm 31 December 1999 and went and made a cup of coffee, when I got back everything was still working. Embarrssed silence.
300
I was on duty that night. The telly was on for the celebrations and I watched, in deep disgust, Tony Blair manhandling the Queen to try and get her to do a twirl with him. I’d still kick him in the whatsits for that! Oh, and when we finally remembered to check the computers were fine.
30
Skeptik, I and a number of friends used to go to Government auctions and buy pallets of old computers and then refurbish them, install open source operating systems and applications and then donate them to smaller schools and community centers. We went back to each of them and rebooted the computers and went into the CMOS and checked the date/time setup. If the year was a 4 figure digit there was never going to be a problem. Most mainboards and most software produced after 1990 did this as the cost and size (both physical dimensions and storage capacity)of memory modules had reduced to such a level that they were no longer a limiting factor in system design.
10
Indeed. They betray themselves at every turn.
60
And if you had any doubts whatsoever, here’s Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change in full flight.Now is the time to dispel any lingering misconceptions about saving the planet. Climate ‘science’ was always the stalking horse..
80
I don’t know that mental stability comes into it.
Most of us here, and many people scattered throughout the world are hoping each winter that the electricity distribution grid will fail somewhere because of the reliance on renewables – we’re just hoping it isn’t here.
We need the lesson, but hope it is applied to someone else.
40
gnome,
I was thinkin’ that ALL the people that are so
turned on by renewables should disconnect themselves
from the main electricity grid for a few days and
just “rely” on their favoured renewables.
By the way, I do have some solar panels on my roof.
I could see that electricity prices were going to
go up and needed to counter that rise. I want to
stay FIRMLY connected to the grid. I did not get them
to “protect” the planet from a gaseous plant food!
110
Florida Peninsula and East Coast has seen a downturn in major hurricanes.
Only 40% as many impacts the past 50 yrs.
(via twitter)
110
Look at the equivocal words in the three line “quote” from Jon Nott, as it was reported:
probably – fewer – probably – more – normally – starting
Six in sixty three. It looks like somebody is hedging their bets.
But, what do you do, when a journalist who has already written the story, wants you to give a suitable quotation, and you know that future grants could depend on what you say and how you say it?
Mind you, Jon Nott may have said. “No comment”, which would still not have changed the pre-approved story one jot.
230
“We have got no doubt now that humans are starting to show their hand in the behaviour of tropical cyclones.”
He’s probably right in saying that but for all the wrong reasons.
Humans do have a hand in all natural disasters.
If you put more of them in the path of these events, the more that are going to be affected.
An unwanted perfect example of that is the 2009 Victorian bushfires that killed a 164.
In 1939 more of the state was burnt and 71 died.
I despair to think what that figure would have been with todays population in its path.
And cyclones?
It totally depends where it makes landfall.
Darwin , another unwelcome example, copped a direct hit.
Last years “cyclone season” was so quiet, I “we” even “claimed” one that made landfall in southern Indonesia!
160
I think the number who died in 2009 was 173.
30
Thank you.
30
The Vic bushfires, the biggest burned ¼ of the state. Black Saturday was a small fire was started by electrical cables on the ground, multiple arsonists and greenies did nothing about the ”worst fuel load” ever seen by 2 Phd fire experts. Greenies forbid wide roads, fire breaks, cleaning of deadwood near homes. Less died in the biggest fire because they built fire breaks.
Living amongst the trees that require catastrophic fire for the seed to germinate is totally insane.
Looking into the big forests, I see evidence of catastrophic fire every 20-40 years
We have less fires but we also have more access roads into forests and that only helps arsonists. Police say most fires are deliberately lit.
Climate variation and fires, there is no connection. There will be less fires when all the forests are gone and also when the next ice age arrives
160
Darwin had severe cyclones in 1897, 1937 and 1974.
Another ‘bad’ one might/may/could/ come any year now.
Hello ABC, can I get an appearance fee for expert advice?
100
Last year we also claimed one which dropped about 50mm of rain on Norfolk Island.
40
A whole 50mm? That’s about 1 hours worth in Tully.
10
Jo,
O/T but FYI
“Skeptics: Please Relax on the Whole “Greatest Scientific Fraud of All Time” Thing
”
http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2015/02/skeptics-please-relax-on-the-whole-greatest-scientific-fraud-of-all-time-thing.html
22
Given that fraud means gaining wealth or power through deception, I think there is a place for that discussion. (Not in terms of specific individuals on this site, unfortunately.)
There is also a place for understatement.
That manual adjustments (which are not replicatable) exceed and create the trend is a scandal.
270
Another Ian,
you are not quite getting it. The problem doesn’t just lay with the false surface station adjustments, the failed computer models or the fudged paleo temperature reconstructions.
The problem is that adding radiative gases (the ones that both absorb and emit IR) to our radiatively cooled atmosphere does not reduce it’s ability to cool our solar heated oceans.
The real issue is not how much warming is predicted to occur or how much warming may be attributed to CO2. The real issue is that the entire atmospheric radiative GHE hypothesis is junk science.
To make their foundation claim of 255K for surface without radiative atmosphere, the climastrologists went and used Sefan-Boltzmann equations on the oceans. For materials being illuminated by SW that are SW translucent and IR opaque, Stefan-Boltzmann equations should never be used. They just won’t work!
It’s not surface at 255K being raised to 288K by our radiative atmosphere, it’s surface at 312K being cooled to 288K by our radiatively cooled atmosphere. Ian, the entirety of the climastrologists claims are absolute garbage.
Sceptics don’t have to cool anything. We should be shouting louder. This truly is the worst scientific mistake in human history. This is Lysenkoism on a Global scale.
119
Thanks Konrad,
I tend to agree with what you are saying, because I have felt for a long time that the Greenhouse Gas Effect is not a Scientific Fact, but a Theory. As a theory it should make predictions which can be tested by experiment or observations. As it turns out however the Theory does not even predict the Climate Sensitivity to CO2 concentration. The IPCC models seem to use an assumption for the sensitivity or 1.5-4C for doubling the CO2 concentrations, which is a range, not a predicted value and that assumed range seems to be wildly wrong!
Confirmatory experimental evidence seems to be entirely absent, and simple experiments generally give a null result.
Now you say that the atmosphere in fact cools the oceans. This seems to be in accordance with observations, at least in the tropics. Can you give a longer explanation of how you derive the sea surface temperature of 312K, which, is then cooled to 288K by the atmosphere? If that is correct then even Christopher Monckton got his Maths wrong.
38
Peter,
you are correct. The idea of a net atmospheric radiative GHE is an unproven hypothesis.
You are also correct that the Viscount Monckton got his maths wrong. He, just like Spencer, Lindzen and Christy treated the surface of the planet as a near blackbody. Epic fail!
You, just like I, can be smarter than these foolish luckwarmers. Just build and run the empirical experiments –
http://oi61.tinypic.com/or5rv9.jpg
http://oi62.tinypic.com/zn7a4y.jpg
http://i42.tinypic.com/315nbdl.jpg
– OK, forget the third one. That’s way expensive. But if you build and run the first two at differing scales, you can derive the five rules –
http://i59.tinypic.com/10pdqur.jpg
If you run the experiments, you will know that 71% of surface of our planet is not a “near blackbody”, it is an extreme SW selective surface.
The claims of the climastrologists, and Willis, Monkcton, and Dr. Brown at WUWT, that the oceans would freeze without atmospheric LWIR are of course complete and utter garbage.
These people are Warmulonian Drivel Monkeys. Pity about WUWT. I like Anthony, despite his hating my guts. But until he deals with Viscount Monckton. Dr. S and Willis, there is no way forward for WUWT.
So sad. Too bad.
310
I’m particularly interested in the 4th experiment that is not shown above but you have mentioned before; the one where two tubs of hot water have a saran sheet floated on the top and one tub has a reflective roof suspended above it.
I think they were mentioned on WUWT a few months ago. Have you run that version too?
Do you have a list of time series experimental measurements from these configurations? Or do you know of other people who have put their measurements and build descriptions online?
What’s the longest time that you ran that one and saw no difference in temperatures?
Also, in the 2nd Selective experiment above, do you have an equation for predicting equilibrium temperature for both the dyed water and clear water?
18
Andrew,
thank you for your questions and above all having an open mind.
You will note a few red thumbs. Some of those are the traditional red thumbs from climastrology believers who would rather no one dared empirical experiment, but some will be from those that feel I am undermining sceptics by attacking Willis, Viscount Monckton and Dr. Brown. To the latter I say – sceptics can win, but not with the “warming but less than we thought” approach. Each of those names has entered into one on one debate with me at WUWT and fled the field. Anthony may not like me, but he still allows my posts there. The reason is after years in media (and its attendant politics) Anthony is smart enough to understand where ego may be blinding those three.
”I’m particularly interested in the 4th experiment that is not shown above but you have mentioned before; the one where two tubs of hot water have a saran sheet floated on the top and one tub has a reflective roof suspended above it.
I think they were mentioned on WUWT a few months ago. Have you run that version too?”
Andrew, I can assure you that I have run all the experiments I show, except the very expensive design with the liquid nitrogen above. (I do use R34 and dry CO2 in some)
The experiments you refer to were run back in 2011, with the first variant being shown at Talkshop (WUWT was still in the dark ages of the “reign of Willis”) –
http://i47.tinypic.com/694203.jpg
This old experiment simply reflected IR back to the surface of one water sample as it cooled from 40C. Cooling rates between the samples was the same to within 0.1C over 45 min. Floating a sheet of LDPE film on the water surface (Microwave cling wrap doesn’t sound “sciency” enough) when repeating the experiment results in a 1.5C cooling differential over 45 min.
The problem with this experiment, even thought the result was in whole degrees, was that reflected IR diminished as the water cooled. A very precise build was required to get a clear result, which may be difficult for high-school students. (this is the whole point, simple repeatable experiments that allow future generations to destroy the fabians indoctrinating them).
This is the reason for the revision –
http://i42.tinypic.com/2h6rsoz.jpg
This version uses constant IR sources and is far cleaner. Cooling from 40C with evaporation nu-constrained and again temperature variation between samples will be less than 0.1C. Re-run, but put a couple of drops of baby oil on each water surface and now you get a 5C differential in 45 min.
Do you have a list of time series experimental measurements from these configurations? Or do you know of other people who have put their measurements and build descriptions online?
What’s the longest time that you ran that one and saw no difference in temperatures?”
Yes, and Yes. First you can see the run sheets in some photos. Second, two I know of have replicated the old 2011 experiments. One at Dr. Spencer’s site, and a certain “Bob”who’s surname I will not mention. Bob did a bad thing. He replicated the first unrefined version of the experiment, all good, but then he published results with my photos from Talkshop in a journal. I have very strict rules. The right answer must be published only on science blogs such as this. The climate inanity has proven beyond doubt that Pal-Review has become corrupt. Sceptics, because they know, have a duty to correct both climastrology and the faults in Pal-Review that let it arise. The only way forward is for the right answer (the oceans are an extreme SW selective surface, not a near blackbody) to exist on blogs years and years before it is ever seen in Pal-Reviewd journals. Pal-Review is after all, a part of academic bureaucracy, not the scientific method.
Which brings me back to my first “yes”. Andrew, in many photos around the web you can see my instruments and data sheets. I am happy to give some answers but not all. The problem with the web is type, type, type, and cut, cut, cut and paste, paste, paste. This is Willis great failing, always analysing other peoples data, never generating his own. Ít’s not enough for me to do these experiments, the scientific method requires other to replicate. Do I seem bombastic Andrew? That’s because, unlike the lukewarmers at WUWT, I “know”. An ancient Chinese proverb -”Tell me I’ll forget. Show me I’ll understand. Let me do it and I will know”. I don’t just want sceptics to understand the answers, I want them to know.
”Also, in the 2nd Selective experiment above, do you have an equation for predicting equilibrium temperature for both the dyed water and clear water?”
A fair question, but it reveals you haven’t understood the problem. Yes I have run this one as well –
http://i60.tinypic.com/259byj6.jpg
Andrew, no equation gives the answer. (well for constant illumination S-B gets close for tub B). What you need is CFD (computational fluid dynamics). This is an extension of FEA (finite element analysis). Both these involve separate equations for radiation, conduction and in the case of CFD pressure, viscosity and movement to be applied iteratively to discrete elements of a fluid or solid. Iteratively means you need calculate the effect of external inputs and exports and the interaction between discreet elements over a series of time steps.
So, no I don’t have a simple equation for you. I do have results (that I’m not supposed to give away lest you become lazy) 400ml water, 900 w/m2 solar, wind speed <0.5 m/s, 5C temp differential in 2 hours. (yes tub A, closer to our oceans, runs hotter than tub B, how the inane climastrologists treated our oceans).
BTW, I mostly deal with static FEA at work, but I have played with 2D CFD. This is a CDF model of one of my old gas column experiments showing how the atmosphere would super heat were it not for radiative cooling at altitude –
http://i60.tinypic.com/dfj314.jpg
But I find the physical more fun –
http://i48.tinypic.com/124fry8.jpg
http://tinypic.com/r/15n0xuf/6
More tubes in the real set-up, but that's just so I can alter height of gas cooling.
I work with 3D engineering computer models every day, and for climate issues, I say forget the computer models. Get into empirical experiment Andrew. The Warmulonians have no defence. Nor do the Lukewarmers. It's kryptonite against all who say CO2 caused surface warming.
Well that was an essay…procrastination writ large. The ones with the gold have demanded 14 tonnes of set and counter weight to move in 3D on hydraulic rams at 1m/s for the POTC5 film. But there's a double pendulum problem with the 7 tonne counter weight. Solve for (X)….by tomorrow afternoon 🙁 The golden rule – those that have the gold make the rules.
27
Peter,
in my initial response I note that I did not give a direct reply to your direct question concerning the 312K figure. This is not a figure for the oceans in absence of radiative atmosphere but total surface.
ie: 29% land at 255K, 71% ocean at 335K, for a total around 312K.
Where does the ocean estimate come from? Empirical experiment. Back in 1965 researchers at Texas A&M were working with evaporation constrained solar ponds (salt gradient finally won out on cost) –
http://oi62.tinypic.com/1ekg8o.jpg
– they found something interesting. They thought if they made layer 2 matt black, they could absorb more solar radiation. It was true, but for the solar pond it did not work, average temperatures were far lower than layer 3 matt black. Why? With layer 2 matt black, even though more solar radiation was absorbed, much was re-radiated before it could conduct into the pond. With layer 3 black, most solar radiation was adsorbed, but had to conduct and convect back to the IR opaque surface before it could be re-radiated, resulting in higher average temperatures.
So about the ocean estimate of 335K. Empirical experiment proves that without cooling by a radiatively cooled atmosphere, ocean surface Tmax would hit 353K or beyond. (90C or 363K can be exceeded in some solar pond designs). But for evaporation constrained (not salt gradient) surface Tav is lower than that due to overnight radiative cooling. This is why evaporation constrained solar ponds were abandoned as a technology. Three solutions were proposed. Insulated night covers, pumped storage in insulated tanks, or the most uneconomical, make the ponds very deep. (the deeper a evaporation constrained solar pond gets, the closer Tav gets to surface Tmax). How deep does sunlight penetrate our oceans? Over 200m. They won’t average 353K, but without a radiatively cooled atmosphere, they would get close. An estimate of 335K is simply deducting overnight radiative cooling from experimentally proven surface Tmax.
27
Thanks,
10
Well gee, I’m rackin’ up those red thumbs on this thread 😉
sadly, so too are those that thought to ask intelligent questions. (my apologies Andrew and Peter. I don’t ask that you just believe, but I want you to learn. The sceptic way. The scientific method, and all the rest. You questioned, you did it right. Good show).
Well here are two intelligent questions that warmists and lukewarmers alike dare not answer –
“are our oceans a near blackbody or are they an extreme SW selective surface?”
And –
“given 1 bar pressure, is the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere on the oceans warming or cooling.?”
Not too hard is it red thumb brigade?
Click away, but unless you step up to the plate you are nothing and nobody.
Warmulonians cannot win with anonymous red thumbs. Ever heard of the “Streisand effect”. You are just shrieking “look here”!
And who’s here? Well you haven’t had any of your unique engineering work exhibited in a Technology museum have you my little warmulonians 😉 Consensus? Groupthink? No one who submits to that drivel ever gets to be specialist contractor. No awards for those that hide in a crowd, trembling in fear.
Spines, the growing of.
I can’t recommend it highly enough. (if you suffer from lukewarming).
16
The graph appears deliberately confusing. The x-axis is unconventionally presented with annual time variable in reverse. Convention usually places (the earliest – 1968) point of start at the origin.
A transparent ploy to decouple the usual perception of time against variation that shows no trend? I think it obfuscates.
180
I thought that too.
60
I find the statistic is almost worse than meaningless anyway. If you only had one cyclone, but it came early, versus 5 during a season, which is worse?
It’s like people who like to use rank, or hottest year, or emissions per capita … many stats can be misleading and this is just another example of a stat which is of dubious value.
80
The graph is what it is- a graph of data of time from the start of November until the first cyclone. That’s it. Number of cyclones is different data. It shows no trend of any sort which may or may not be meaningful depending on your interest. If your interest is in gauging severity of cyclone seasons then it is of no interest but you can hardly complain about it as the graph itself is not purporting to be anything other than what it is.
112
i think someone asked in the comments of that post about UKMet rankings of hottest years something about what the ranking of changes in temperature were. The biggest changes in 5 year averages should be in the 21st and late 20th centuries as the warming accelerates.
Of the 22 differences in five year averages going back to 1900 (for GIST LOTI as Hadcrut4 stops on 2014.5 in WFT) the top three biggest changes are 1975:1980 to 1980:1985, 1990:1995 -1995:2000, and 1935:1940-1940:1945.
1995:2000 to 2000:2005 comes in fifth after 1930:1935-1935:1940.
The change from 2005:2010 to 2010:2015 is 15th out of 22. There is no acceleration due to the accelerated use of fossil fuel use by man as anybody with half a brain could spot in the actual data.
What is very interesting is if I use the RSS data from 1985 (more reliable satellite data), positions 3-8 are all pre-1950. Positions 1 and 2 are pre 2000.
80
There has been no “acceleration” in warming whatsoever and none at all in the 21st century.
We had a mild warming of 0.3 degrees over a 20 year period between 1978 and 1998. That’s a warming rate of 0.15 degrees/decade. Since we must begin our observations at 1950 we are then left with a warming rate of 0.15 degrees/century (so far).
there is no statistically significant difference between the warming rates of the late 1800’s, early 1900’s and between 1978 and 1998 (Professor Phil Jones, CRU East Anglia), so even if we include these there is no “acceleration” in warming. This is a pure warmist myth.
10
The above should be a reply to Bulldust.
Gee Aye, the plot is bad because there is no good scientific reason to reverse the x axis nor to plot how long until the first cyclone hits. Its pure propaganda. The chatteratti simple see the bigger black bars further up the axis and think that they have researched.
100
yes it was a boring reply to a poorly thought out comment. It must have attracted the thumbs down for the poor punctuation and boringness as I note that no one wrote anything that contradictedd it.
02
above reply for MarkD’s comment.
To you RB. Data is not “science” and data presentation can be bad but it can’t be “bad science”. I agree there is no good reason to present the data as it is presented.
Just to make an actual scientific comment about this trivial data set. This data consists of one data point per year. It is a time variable with an arbitrary start point and has a huge SD (although not an appropriate measure of the variability in this type of data it approximates it and is easily understood) compared with the total range of data and the data limits. It would be a statistical minefield to get any correlations or time trends. I’d predict (my way of saying I can’t be arsed doing it) that a power analysis would reveal that to see any sort of pattern would require either
1. a very long time series. In which case it is of little interest as changes that occur over hundreds of years are easily adapted to.
2. A very strong change (ie really really big change) in timing of the cyclone season. Again trivial as this would be obvious from other observations and general global panic.
00
Gee says:
Thank you Gee. Now if you’d kindly provide something meaningful?
60
Back in the 70s and before, it was not unusual for cyclones to hit as far south as the Qld/NSW border. Since the 70s, only 2 cyclones have crossed the coast south of Rockhampton. None since 1992.
170
Yes, Ken, in the ’60s up to half a dozen a year would cross the coast south of the TOC and wash Gold Coast houses into the sea. Houses in this same street have since changed hands for multi-millions. When “Global Warming” began these cyclones stopped overnight and haven’t been back but when they do it will be “unprecedented”.
Also, could it be that these experts who we pay to live in paradise to tell us if we have a problem are getting worried that they might be expendable?
150
You just can’t get the quality and quantity of Cyclones that you used to. It is all very sad. I blame it on the Nargles, myself.
120
Ken I recall being chased down the Bruce in 1972 by a cyclone that made land around Rockhampton and we were on the northern side of it.Anyone who remembers the Bruce highway will appreciate the difficulty trying to get back to NSW heading into flooding.Got back home to Tamworth thanks to my trusty Kombi, to find a big rain starting there too.Cyclone?
60
1974 T C Wanda.confirmed
50
They’ll blame the hiatus for the lull in cyclones, the timing almost fits, but at this stage they are not quite sure what has caused the pause.
50
This means that we know for sure (unheard of in science).
This means that we have 100% certainty (unheard of in science).
Please strip this “scientist” of his credentials.
170
Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good ‘scare campaign’
50
Climate scientists: ‘It’s very likely that [insert catastrophe] will happen and is a results of human produced CO2.’. So please, pretty please, Gaia; don’t let us down again!
110
in less than 100,000 years we will be in the next ice age regardless of co2 and my prediction is better that theirs
100
This cooler summer in Australia, without huge bushfires, endless heat, cyclones and windstorms and dust storms, we have seen less frequent but more intense scaremongering. This is clearly related to the amount of CO2 generated by hyperventilating reporters and climate warming scientists.
It is amazing how many of the most prominent oracles in ‘the science’ (of climate warming) are BAs. Al Gore (BA), Tim Flannery (BA), Phil Jones(BA). It is all to do with the marketing and the narrative and transparently, the income, prestige and fame which comes with endless prophecies of doom. To them it is obvious that man controls his climate through ‘synthetic’ CO2 and the reading of auguries from the mystical computer programs, which by definition are infallible and not to be questioned. The facts are what they say they are and only a small band of climate scientist high priests can read the omens. It is the end of us all. Send money to the Climate Council and you will be saved. Maybe.
211
TDF………..Send money to the Climate Council and they will be saved……….fixed it for you!
180
Now that’s hurtful insight. Say ten Hail Moncktons and one Our Flannery.
130
“This cooler summer in Australia … less frequent but more intense scaremongering.”
Spot on. If there was anything real to report, I would expect to find it at https://www.jcu.edu.au/cts/, but these days the cts people need to watch out for backstabbers.
It’s certainly a bit cool. Evening temps low 20s, overnight low of 19 twice recently. MetEye shows sea surface temp at 28 – 30. Uh-huh …
120
So TDF what do you call the size of the bushfires that occurred this summer in South Australia and Western Australia?
00
Consider Black Saturday 2009, six years ago. 28-30 January. Even in Melbourne 3 consecutive days of 43C. 400 fires in Victoria alone. 173 dead. 414 injured. 2000 homes lost. Bushfires are normal for gum tree forests in mid summer but there was a terrible loss of life. THe lesson? Amazingly in California the next summer they lost a similar 2000 homes but only 20 lives. Our stay and fight heroics was to blame. I remember the front page of the Herald Sun was a ‘hero’ in shorts and thongs on his roof with a garden hose. There was also the story of the man who was fined $130,000 for clearing around his farm. He survived and so did the township who fled there. He still had to pay the fine.
51
My point is that the profiteers of doom want disastrous bushfires, which are not measured in acres but deaths. Fear is a great motivator. Humans should be more frightened of the cold, but for some reaon, heat is the scare. Hell is never a frozen place, but a place of incredible heat. It is in our psychology.
60
Maybe it’s time for this —
˛
ABC Headphone News|
By Ran Damitall | Sept 31, 2014 | 03:61 AM CET+0401
Known Global Reserves of Panic Predictions At All Time Low.
Scientists predict the world will run out of topics to panic over within 9.7 years (99.8% confidence), which is almost ten times faster than first projected.
“Imaginization is running out”, says some industry insiders, while others said that “Peak Panic” is predicted to occur some time in “the next 2 to 3 years, maybe sooner!” Adding that “after, with global scientific research imaginations already stretched to yawning point”, causing the world to experience a “complete collapse of the Panic Credit market.”
WWFP spokesperson was unavailable due to severe apprehension and fear. However the well known panic denier, Tony Whatt from the notorious WTFJHappened.com blog site said:
“I’ve little trust with the output of the CHIMP5* modeling as it has imaginization forcing set just too high…”
Meanwhile US Chief Panicologist Professor ‘Bull’ McKibblen said –
“Stay alarmed. The models nearly predicted this. And remember the calmists, the panic deniers are wrong.”
When questioned further he added,
“It’s just the new catastrophic anomalous normal, the panic market should adjust.”
A White House spokesperson, of indeterminate gender, age, and ethnicity, told this reporter:
And on the markets –
Panic Credit shares reached an all time low today, as panic swept through the Panic Credit share markets globally.
The forecast is for periods of seriously restful sleep in the long term.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
*CHIMP5 – Computer Humanized Imagined Massive Panic, modeling array #5.
More at [paywalled ($$)]
ħttp¦//www.ßloomborg.com/news/2014-31-09/grid_locked/five-tħreats-more-terrifying-tħan-calm-panic-before-the-market-panic-storm-causes-panic-alarm.hŧm
🙂
From an original idea by commentator ‘Safetyguy66’ at Joanne Nova website
(joannenova.com.au/2014/08/peak-china/#comment-1531554)
220
tomomason says here: (my bolding)
Peak Panic sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, maybe sooner.
Like just before the UNFCCC’s COP21/CMP11 in Paris.
Tony.
140
Tony, O/T but can you do some figures on the solar plant approved for Toowoomba please.
30
Sorry I’m late getting here Bryl, been out shopping since midday, and only just back.
Say, how about a really quick fact straight up until I look at it in some depth.
This huge plant, proudly boasting itself in the blurb as probably the biggest Solar PV plant in the World.
It’ll be huge when it’s finished at a Nameplate of 2000MW, built in stages over the next ten years.
Just down the road in the same area is the Millmerran Power Station, a coal fired power plant.
The Coal fired plant is a piddling 850MW, when compared to this wonderful new solar plant, which in the end will have a Nameplate 2.35 times greater than this measly little coal fired plant.
The solar plant, so huge, will deliver its power at a capacity factor of around, and here, I’ll boost it a little and say that they may actually make 17%, although 13% would be closer to the truth, but I’ll go best case scenario here, and keep in mind that CF will drop over the years to be closer to 9 or 10% at best after 12 to 15 years, but say, I’ll quote that lifetime of 17%, which will never be achieved.
So, at that 17%, when averaged across the whole year, that means an average operation equivalent to full power of 4 hours and 5 minutes a day.
So, umm, I guess they’ll be closing down that coal fired plant soon eh!.
This solar plant at 2.35 times greater Nameplate than the measly little coal fired plant will be delivering a huge amount of power to the Queensland grid.
That pi$$y little coal fired plant will deliver the same power in, umm ….. 175 days, and do it on a 24/7/365 basis.
I’ll work up something more detailed for perhaps an Unthreaded Post of the weekend.
Tony.
(This comment is dripping with sarcasm, and rightfully so)
81
The last super cyclone hit QLD about 200 years ago during the LIA.
But the silly warmists think that the LIA was a wonderful period and our present period ( post 1950s) is really awful and dangerous.
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s382613.htm
110
Good point Neville, the irony burns.
40
Also we have some shocking news from the Antarctic Research Centre, that it was colder in Antarctica during the LIA.
‘It has been argued that the Little Ice Age was the most recent of the “Dansgaard Oeschger” abrupt changes in climate that occurred during the ice age. According to the classical “see-saw” hypothesis, Antarctica should have been warm during the Little Ice Age. Our ice core data show that climate conditions in Antarctica during the Little Ice Age were colder, stormier and drier, sea surface temperatures were colder and sea ice more extensive compared to now.’
20
“We are going to probably see fewer, but those that do occur will probably be more intense,” he said.
I get it. When we’re not getting droughted we’ll be getting smashed up. Bad gas! Bad skeps!
Let me think…Only four cyclones have been measured (according to RSMC) below the magic mark of 880 hPa. Three were in the 1970s and one in the 1950s. For those measured at 880 hPa, the dates were 1966, 1978 and 1984.
Of course, these are just what someone was able to measure with some accuracy in recent times. A brute like Australia’s own Mahina in 1899 may well have been around or even below that mark. After all, they were picking porpoises off the cliffs afterward.
So, basically, the ABC’s professor is just tossing off. But the letters “ABC” would have told you that.
180
Jo, BOM has this page
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
with graph of TCs since 1969. “No trend in severe cyclones”.
Despite warming, no trend?
150
Ken can you tell us what that warming has been for OZ since 1950?
And what would it be if you considered dubious infilling and homogenisation, plus a sane estimate for the UHIE? Lomborg gives examples of the UHIE in “Cool It” ( eg Tokyo) of several degrees compared to surrounding countryside.
But we are told that the UHIE in the data is about 0.1C. Does anyone really believe this?
30
That’s a rhetorical question, to which the answer could be, who knows? There probably has been some seeing as there has been a rise of 0.3 – 0.5 since 1979 in lower atmosphere over Australia. 1950s was about the time a general cooling trend appears to have changed to warming, which is why warming enthusiasts prefer to start from 1950.
41
I’m perfectly happy to start at 1950.
So, what do we have? A slight warming between 1978 and 1998 of 0.3 degrees, giving us a warming rate of 0.025 degrees/decade.
Nothing at all to be alarmed about.
Thank you.
00
0.1C of UHIE is one of the Great Lies of warmology.
The theory is the developed area is so small it would contribute almost nothing to warming. Which is true of the satellite data, but not true if the thermometer is at the airport and extrapolated to a 1000km grid incl ocean!
Check out Nuuk airport for example. What was once snowy ground is now cleared and heat absorbent concrete surrounded by heated buildings and planes.
20
Trend is a line going down
40
Ken as I said above BOM has an agenda. They are saying their model predicts more cyclones but it has been shown to be wrong. In fact there was a peer reviewed paper that showed that over 90% of all GC models around the world (including the CSIRO & BOM models) had no predictive skill. No one is saying it but the reason all the models give a poor result is the inclusion of CO2. There is a large amount of data that shows CO2 lags temperature over many time ranges (daily, seasonally, over 7 to 11 yr periods, over 60 year cycles, over 1000 year cycles etc.) All the models would have more success if they were based on accurate data over the previous year, then took into account the various cycles and left out CO2 altogether. There will still be problems because the inaccuracies of collected data, poor recording (including data adjustments) and insufficient data. I do not trust present data being collected at a limited number of airports to reflect conditions in surrounding areas.
80
“I do not trust present data being collected at a limited number of airports to reflect conditions in surrounding areas.”
I live a couple of kilometers from the local Airport and I consistently measure discrepancies, up or down, in temperatures and rain fall. If my empirical methods were that bad the inconsistency would be only one way, up OR down.
A very good friend of mine lives the other side of town about 10-12 Km away, in winter his place is an absolute freezer, outside, were mine is 2-3 degrees warmer…. same story in Summer, you boil at his place, on my back patio, instead, there is a nice little breeze. (easterly unfortunately bring with them a bit… of a stench from the pig farm).
30
Yesterday I thought the channel 10 weatherman was going orgasmic on camera. There is apparently a low pressure system up near Cape York and he was in ecstasy at the prospect of a cyclone developing and crossing the Cape.
What he must realise though is that it’s only a forecast. He did mention something about it being an EU forecast. Probably the EU thinks it has more influence with the cyclone gods than the BOM & that it really is time that Australia had another cyclone to prove that not paying your taxes will have terrible consequences
140
A Professor who thought it no harm,
To spice up the News with alarm.
Warned intensive destruction,
Followed cyclone reduction,
But he may be just chancing his arm.
150
Time for another of my human behavioral hypotheses;
The exposure of the public to a constant, sustained “the sky is falling” barrage of alarmist advocacy climate scientist / science doomsday, never to be seen or experienced, climate catastrophe predictions all backed up by a hysterical and increasingly disbelieved to the point of contemptuousness, MSM, has been an ongoing constant for well over a decade now.
A quite significant shift in public attitudes towards “scientists” as such but far more marked towards the so called “climate scientists” both on the blogs and now seeping down to the street level public if my antenna is correct, is an increasing level of quite scathing comment on science now beginning to border on contempt for science and scientists at all levels and all disciplines
A good percentage of the street level public are beginning to define science and scientists generally and climate scientists very specifically as little more than public trough swillers whose only real interest are in benefitting themselves to the maximum all at the public’s expense.
Science press releases and pronouncements which once were accepted without question are being increasingly scanned for the flaws and for an increasing number of climate alarmist papers , for the utter inanities and very bad science so many climate science papers are increasingly exhibiting.
And thats not only what is being seen on the sceptic blogs but is penetrating down to street level as the many lurkers to the skeptic blogs begin to take a bolder and more knowledgeable stand in private conversations when the subject turns to climate related and environmental matters
Harsh words I know but that is what I am starting to see not just in the blogs but now down at the public’s private and street conversational levels.
As alarmist advocacy climate science continues on it’s present course it appears that it is already well down the road to sowing the seeds of it’s own future destruction in the minds of a good percentage of the public and is well on the way towards creating a serious image problem for the rest of science and scientific endeavor.
And with that, all the future down stream consequences of drastically reduced funding and a public attitude bordering on a contempt for science and it’s needs / demands that such public attitudes spell for future science.
120
The promulgators of “healthy diet” haven’t done science any favours either, with the constantly changing guidelines that seem only to agree that we should mostly eat quinoa. (Substance of unknown origin. Looks like ground up traffic cones. Tastes like ground up doormats.)
130
RoHa
You’ve just got a big green thumb for that bit of VERY descriptive quinoa taste phraseology
70
And over $20 a kg.
50
Ewwww… You know what ground up doormats taste like? I don’t wanna know how you know that’s just… Ewww…. 😛
40
What, you’ve never munched on carpet before?
40
Unlike the klimatologists who preach doom, death and destruction, the Average Man On The Street looks at the weather every day, compares it with that experienced in their lifetime so far and dismisses the alarmism as what it is, extreme exaggeration.
00
Doubters! Deniers! You will rue your mockery!
All that Global Warming that is now being stored deep in the ocean is coiling itself up into a cyclone so powerful that when it hits, Queensland will vanish from the map!!! There will be nothing left!!!!
MARK MY WORDS!!!! WE’RE ALL DOOMED!!!!!!
(Can I have a grant now?)
110
No Grant until prediction eventuates!
I propose similar grant guidelines for all climate scientists.
30
Are not the insurers hedging their bets that climate change will result in an increase in cyclones and other disastrous weather events yet its apparent so far the reverse is showing to be the case? This is a world wide phenomenon – less cyclones, tornadoes et.al? Oh sorry there will be less but more EXTREME events – which we are yet to see.
So when do we get a refund on our policies? Oh wait it still may happen, that’s why you insure just in case.
Something is happening/changing – but as to the route cause – me thinks too many are blinkered by the one idea.
80
.
Liberator
Interesting question. Insurance Council of Australia say:
Yet Cyclone damage only appear on 3 out 10 Largest Catastrophe Events on the Insurance Council List, all of which occur in the northern regions of Australia. Yet here they are using false data predictions witchery from BOM to justify higher insurance premiums.
Everyone is on the Gravy train of BIGGER MORE EXTREME MORE SOUTH Cyclones?
Some thing needs to be done about such blatant lies by all involved.
20
James Cook University – please re-instate Prof Bob Carter.
100
We can do better than that, he appears to be the first person to recognise the plateau in temperatures.
This from Nick Cater in the Oz last year.
‘It was an Australian scientist, Bob Carter, who first drew attention to the flattening trend in an article in Britain’s The Telegraph in April 2006. Carter reviewed the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia for the years 1998 to 2005 and asked: “Does something not strike you as odd?”
‘Carter’s reward for identifying the lack of global warming was to have his professional reputation trashed. When Carter repeated his suggestion in the Australian press a year later, the CSIRO felt obliged to respond. Carter had presented “an unethical misrepresentation of the facts”, wrote Andrew Ash, acting director of the CSIRO’s Climate Adaptation Flagship. “All scientists welcome honest criticism since it helps to sharpen our analyses and improve our understanding, but scepticism based on half-truths and misrepresentation of facts is not helpful.”
It beggars belief.
100
anything the CSIRO states can be taken with a grain of salt …
40
Unethical? In what way was stating the facts and a simple observation unethical? Carter was right. Surely Professor Carter still deserves a public apology for this slander from Andrew Ash at the very least? How do people live with themselves or do they rationalize their own behaviour? Far worse, even what warming was apparent may have been instrumental and enhanced not least by the wonderful homogenization which was meant to fix recording problems, not create warming all by itself. The pseudo science of Global Warming rolls on, regardless of the facts.
70
Bob Carter and Stewart Franks are presenting papers on behalf of the Institute of Public Affairs in Sydney next week, in a Climate Change Briefing Session. I’m looking forward to hearing them speak and will be interested to see if they are reading a change in general public perception on this issue.
60
Ash should be sacked for being out of touch with observational reality.
‘There is overwhelming evidence that the planet is warming, that it is very likely that most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is due to human induced increases in greenhouse gases (IPCC). What’s more, we can say with confidence that this warming will accelerate if emissions are allowed to continue unabated.’
I wonder if its possible to get Bob a job in the CSIRO, to bring an end to the lies oozing from that den of iniquity.
30
CAGW is a psyops.
yesterday, on jo’s Lamb thread, i responded to Bill re geoengineering, incl “injecting sulfate particles or other aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet” by saying:
– the sulphur story is all over the MSM, but the purpose seems to be to scare people so much that they insist on reducing CO2 emissions – and i posted the following to make my point:
National Geographic: Craig Welch: There’s a Good and a Bad Way to ‘Geoengineer’ the Planet
Committee members were blunt in their first recommendation: The world should focus first and foremost on curbing fossil fuel emissions rather than on any kind of geoengineering.
“I think it’s going to be easier and cheaper to avoid making a mess than it will be to make a mess and then try to clean it up later,” said committee member Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at Stanford University’s Carnegie Institution for Science. “If we end up having to build a fix that’s on the scale of our energy system, why not just retool our energy system?”…(url at Lamb thread).
now this, conveniently, pops up!
10 Feb: Yale News: Advent of geoengineering may help lower temperature of debate over climate change
Geoengineering, an emerging technology aimed at counteracting the effects of human-caused climate change, also has the potential to counteract political polarization over global warming, according to a new study.
Published Feb. 9 in the journal Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, the study found that participants — members of large, nationally representative samples in both the United States and England — displayed more open-mindedness toward evidence of climate change, and more agreement on the significance of such evidence, after learning of geoengineering.
“The result casts doubt on the claim that the advent of geoengineering could lull the public into complacency,” said Dan Kahan, professor of law and psychology at Yale Law School and a member of the research team that conducted the study.
“We found exactly the opposite: Members of the public who learned about geoengineering were more concerned and less polarized about global warming than those who were told of the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a way to reduce climate change,” he said…
“The participants who learned about geoengineering were less polarized about the validity of the evidence than were the ones who got information on carbon-emission limits,” said Kahan…
“The information on geoengineering,” said Kahan, “helped to offset bias by revealing to those study participants with a pro-technology outlook that acknowledging evidence of global warming does not necessarily imply the ‘end of free markets’ or the ‘death of capitalism,’ a theme that some climate-change policy advocates emphasize.”…
The study was conducted by a team of researchers associated with the Cultural Cognition Project at Yale Law School and the Center for Applied Social Research at the University of Oklahoma.
http://news.yale.edu/2015/02/10/advent-geoengineering-may-help-lower-temperature-debate-over-climate-change
40
on jo’s “Leadership debacle” thread, i posted the following (url available on the thread):
9 Feb: ABC AM: Louise Yaxley: Spill motion an orchestrated ambush on Prime Minister Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb says
“I do think that, overwhelmingly, people will see that this has been an ambush in many ways,” he said at Canberra airport.
“I am not going to get into names; I am not certain of all the people.
“I do know that there [were] things being organised from as early as early December to put a shot across the Prime Minister’s bows.”…
Mr Simpkins said he was just reacting to what his constituents and people around the country wanted him to do…
19 Dec: Council of Foreign Relations Blog: New Year’s Predictions for Southeast Asia
by Joshua Kurlantzick
Tony Abbott confronts a test from within his party
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s personal unpopularity is dragging down the Liberal Party…
Abbott has often looked befuddled on foreign policy. He was taken by surprise by Barack Obama and Xi Jinping’s major ***climate deal***, announced on the eve of the G-20 summit in Australia, and he has repeatedly stumbled on crafting an effective and humane Australian policy for dealing with refugees. Abbott frequently has appeared tone-deaf in dealing with members of his party, the media, and the public. Indeed, he has one of the lowest popularity ratings of any Australian prime minister in modern history. However, the Liberal Party retains decent ratings for now. In the cutthroat world of Australian politics, where prime ministers can be dumped a few weeks before an election, expect other leading Liberals to try to oust Abbott in an internal party vote in 2015.
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/author/jkurlantzick/
6 Feb: Lowy Institute: Abbott’s demise: CFR called it
Less than a month ago I somewhat incredulously noted a prediction from the Council on Foreign Relations’ Joshua Kurlantzick that Tony Abbott would be ousted as Prime Minister in a Liberal Party revolt in 2015.
Kurlantzick must be feeling pretty good about that prediction right about now.
We’ll see after Tuesday’s leadership spill whether Abbott survives, but meanwhile, Kurlantzick has written a follow-up post saying Tony Abbott has to go…
http://m.lowyinstitute.org/node/44516
and in today’s MSM:
US think tank asks ‘Is Tony Abbott the most …
Sydney Morning Herald – 8 hours ago
VIDEO of Kurlantzick: Abbott ‘a strikingly poor politician’
Tony Abbott seems to be the least competent leader of any rich democracy and appears unaware of how poorly he comes across at world events says Joshua Kurlantzick from US think tank Council on Foreign Relations
Abbott labelled ‘shockingly incompetent’ by elite American think tank
9news.com.au-3 hours ago
Abbott ‘shockingly incompetent’
The New Daily-38 minutes ago
… of Foreign Relations southeast Asia fellow Joshua Kurlantzick
Tony Abbott is the most incompetent leader, Council on Foreign …
Daily Mail-1 hour ago
more to come…
30
Kurlantzick, who writes for MSM from Bloomberg Businessweek to NYT, The Atlantic, Time, The Economist, New Republic, Mother Jones, etc etc, doesn’t link to his presumptuous, out-of-order 5 Feb article, “Tony Abbott Has To Go”, in his latest, but i have linked to it below:
10 Feb: Council on Foreign Relations Blog: Tony Abbott Lives for Another Day – Now What?
by Joshua Kurlantzick
Just before New Year’s, I predicted that Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott would potentially be ousted in 2015 in an internal party battle. Abbott’s leadership in 2014 had been atrocious – he often looked confused or outright deceitful when discussing policy questions…
Meanwhile, Abbott’s position on climate change, though popular with conservatives, is out of step with the majority of the country (let alone with the rest of the world) and is out of step even with more moderate ministers in his government like Malcolm Turnbull.
(LINKS TO GUARDIAN)To be honest, though, I do not think Abbott will avoid another challenge to his job. A poll taken this week showed Abbott with a record low approval rating from the Australian public, and also revealed that voters would prefer other coalition leaders, like Turnbull or Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, as prime minister. And even though he survived for now, the win was no great triumph…
“No matter how it is sliced and diced though, this [party room vote] was a pretty miserable outcome for Abbott,” wrote Mark Kenny, a political columnist for the Sydney Morning Herald…
It’s hard to imagine Abbott, who built his reputation as a certain kind of blunt, conservative, monarchist leader, drastically shifting how he operates or actually changing his policy positions on social issues or climate change. His putative opponents within the coalition, like Communications Minister Turnbull, simply will wait for the gaffe-prone prime minister’s next major slip-up. According to the West Australian, “A minister who did not support yesterday’s leadership spill motion offered a brutal assessment: ‘Abbott will last as long as his next big mistake.’”
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/02/10/tony-abbott-lives-for-another-day-now-what/
5 Feb: Council on Foreign Relations Blog: Tony Abbott Has To Go
by Joshua Kurlantzick
Even conservative Republicans would admit that Obama has achieved major accomplishments in office – they just do not like those accomplishments at all. And Obama, Rajoy, and other rich world leaders, whatever their problems, usually seem to be making their policy decisions based on advice from a retinue of advisors and after careful consideration of policy options. Even leaders criticized for acting too slowly, and offering uninspired policy ideas, like French President Francois Hollande, appear to be capable of running their countries’ day-to-day policymaking…
Tony Abbott, however, is in charge of a regional power, a country that is the twelfth largest economy in the world and the only rich world nation to have survived the 2008-9 financial crisis unscathed. Yet in less than two years as prime minister, Abbott has proven shockingly incompetent, which is why other leaders within his ruling coalition, following a set of defeats in state elections, may now scheme to unseat him. They should: Abbott has proven so incapable of clear policy thinking, so unwilling to consult with even his own ministers and advisers, and so poor at communicating that he has to go…
(KNIGHTHOOD-GATE)
I take no position on whether a left or right coalition can govern Australia better – whether Australia needs a revolt from within the ruling coalition or a national election victory by the left. But a country that for decades has punched above its weight on nearly every international issue surely can do much better for a prime minister than Tony Abbott.
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/02/05/tony-abbott-has-to-go/
COMMENT by Jonathan: I am an Australian voter, and I can assure any readers that the simple reason Tony Abbott holds the position he does, is because his associates took the step of politicising climate policy in 2008-2009. Where there had been some kind of consensus between Liberal and Labour on the necessity of carbon emissions regulation, one of Abbott’s ultra-conservative allies trounced the convention and ferociously denounced carbon pricing as a ‘great big new tax on everything’. This caused Abbott to win the spill motion for party leadership – by one vote! He has since dismantled a carbon pricing policy which was not only curbing emissions, but was also a source of badly-needed revenue, for nothing other than ideological reasons. And on those grounds alone, I agree with the article: Abbott has to go. And it can’t come soon enough.
read the rest of the comments.
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Thank you for all your work, pat but “read the rest of the comments” – No Thank You; your stomach must be in much better state than mine.
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sorry Pat, I pressed the wrong thumb… no way of retriving the mistake.
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The reason for being for the Council of Foreign Relations is to bring in a socialist one world government. As predicted they will try to bring down Tony Abbott and also Stephen Harper, the Canadian Prime Minister. They intend to do this at the Canadian Elections. Abbott probably is not as unpopular as the main stream media/ABC/Fairfax Press make out.
Obama is their man. All leading to the Paris Treaty planned roll over.
With God’s blessings this will not happen.
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Climate Science: Definition: A Quasi-religious (“We have got no doubt now that humans are starting to show their hand in the behaviour of tropical cyclones.)/fear-mongering (“We are going to probably see fewer [cyclones], but those that do occur will probably be more intense,”)/invective-spewing belief system. Two out of three ain’t bad.
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As I recall the last hurricane season in the northern hemisphere also had the “quietest” start for decades. I do not remember hearing of any significant storms impacting North America or the Caribbean last year.
Where is all the energy of global warming hiding? How can it be that these significant amounts of energy can remain undetectable until, as the professor SPECULATES, it suddenly appears and makes the few cyclones that develop more intense? How is it that climate change causes more cyclones but at the same time less cyclones?
For me the real question is why do people who have the good fortune and privilege to be in positions of scientific prominence within academia have so little regard for their personal scientific reputations and that of the institutions they represent? Why is it that the slightest prodding from a journalist results in a torrent of baseless, unsubstantiated speculation on what might or might not happen in the global climate system? No facts, no evidence, no science.
I wonder if we could have a Royal Commission into academic appointments? I would love to know how people who lack any apparent ability for critical thought and display repeated examples of ignorance of the scientific method end up in these position.
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“Where is all the energy of global warming hiding?”
Tsk Tsk Tsk! You haven’t been reading your “scientific” papers from the sound of it! It’s all hiding in the oceans!… and when they have build up enough energy they will come out in force and destroy EVERYTHING! Not forget that we all have to extinct By 2040!!
This process of methane release will accelerate exponentially, release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere and lead to the demise of all life on earth before the middle of this century….The absolute mean extinction time for the northern hemisphere is 2031.8 and for the southern hemisphere 2047.6 with a final mean extinction time for 3/4 of the earth’s surface of 2039.6
Arctic News: Global Extinction within one Human Lifetime as a Result of a Spreading Atmospheric Arctic Methane Heat wave and Surface Firestorm 9 Feb 2012
Courtesy of: http://climatechangepredictions.org/category/uncategorized
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Not All is lost for BOM and the weather channel:
Last night Chanel 9 forecast: up to 300mm of rain,
Their ABC TV in the high 100mm ,
This morning on the radio: up to 500mm
The mayor of Cairns was talking about a possible cyclone….
I suppose it’s all good news for woolies and coles, lot’s of food and batteries sold!
They just like to scare people…. Strangely enough nobody mentioned CC or Tony Abbott for that matter….
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Thank you Jo, for this wonderful site, which I need to visit fairly regularly, because of the over acting of most/all of the ubiquitous Weather Presenters with their daily irrelevant “Records” and “Catastrophics”. Have none of the warmists not heard of the Boy Crying Wolf?!
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The latest, this week in Broome, a hyped up locally record minimum for 74 years since the station opened, 30.1C. Of course not bothering to note from the previous site 1.6 km away, several warmer nights around the turn of the Century, the warmest 31.7C.
Yep, daily and irrelevant. It’s just weather.
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We do have to stop that! Most of the rainfall that falls in the Pilbara and West Kimberley is cyclone dependent, and common between December and April. Not this year.
Warmer seas up this way were supposed to give us 4 this season (below the average), but none yet.
BoM’s forecasts have not helped, if you relied on them, you’d go broke.
If you believed the ABC, you’d go broke, only quicker!
Doomed we are!
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I’m sure I read recently that global TC intensity is also down, so the data would seems to suggest that not only are Tropical Cyclones a bit less frequent but the category is down on the average too. This would not support the hypothesis that the pause in cyclones is indicative of an increasing intensity.
It is also logical to say that since peak tropical temperatures are limited to about 30 degrees by the high relative humidity of oceanic tropics and warming must therefore manifest at higher latitudes, that the intense pressure differences that cause cyclone are LESS likely to develop in a warmer climate, whether that warmer climate is caused by CO2 or the overheated emissions of hyperventilating warmist propagandists.
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something to warm our hearts!
10 Feb: MassachusettsLive: Forum on climate change postponed due to snow
BOSTON – A legislative forum on climate change has been postponed, ironically, due to the weather.
“I hope these repeated, severe storms serve as a platform for some important conversations around bolstering our natural and built infrastructure against climate change once a new date has been set for this discussion,” said State Sen. Marc Pacheco (D-Taunton), who chairs the Senate Committee on Global Warming and Climate Change and organized the summit…
The forum had been scheduled for Tuesday at the Statehouse, but the MBTA is shut down Tuesday as Massachusetts continues to dig out from an unprecedented amount of snowfall.
Pacheco’s forum was going to include numerous speakers from environmental organizations and academia as well as Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs Matthew Beaton, Senate President Stan Rosenberg (D-Amherst) and other legislators…
http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/forum_on_climate_change_postpo.html
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the one & only piece found on the Geneva talks today…bit of a media blackout, it seems. cute opening about the cold, though:
11 Feb: UN Dispatch: Meet a 2015-er: Ronny Jumeau, Seychelles Ambassador to the United Nations, who often represents the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS)
Q. So, we’re sitting here in a snow storm in New York and you are headed to equally cold Geneva for the adaptation meeting of the UNFCC. Let’s talk about the climate change SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). What is your role in all these negotiations?
JUMEAU: My job is to explain things in a way that people understand, without the jargon. We need to move past that and look at the people involved in climate change. We can’t just focus on the science or graphs and figures…
The more we make climate change a development narrative, the more attention we get. Tackling climate change cannot be seen as a barrier to pulling people out of poverty. I think we’ve kept that divorced too much…
Most SIDS (Small Island States) are heavily dependent on tourism and fisheries. How can we in the SIDS plan the sustainable development of our fisheries, if we don’t know what ocean acidification is going to do? And that’s a climate issue. So until we know how the climate is going to affect the oceans, we can’t plan our biggest industry. Same with agriculture.
Another example is the airport in Seychelles which [ according to the data] will need a new runway to be built at a level that is higher than the whole airport is currently. We need the additional runway to increase tourism, but how do you build it without knowing how high the ocean level will rise and when?
The Secretary General gets it. His Cabinet gets it. But politics comes into play…
Q. Is it really about finance?
JUMEAU: It’s all about finance…
It looks like the meeting in Ethiopia [The Conference on Financing For Development to be held in Addis Ababa this July] is everything. I think that meeting is becoming the whole thing, incredibly important. But, I think people will be saying [once they get to Addis], ‘we’re talking about financing for what now?’
If you take development as something separately from climate change, what are we discussing financing exactly – development projects or climate projects? For the SIDS and [Least Developed Countries] they still go hand in hand, especially in financing context…
Q. Is it necessarily a bad thing to be so focused on finance?
JUMEAU: When countries like China and U.S. are interested in solar power, its not because of climate change – it’s business and economic development. I’m not going to argue with that though – whatever it takes to get you to the table!…
http://www.undispatch.com/meet-2015er-ronny-jumeau/
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talk about jargon!
11 Feb: BreakingEnergy: Roman Kilisek: Global Supply Chains Face Serious Climate Change Risk
Global supply chains could be headed for big trouble.
“Marginal or no improvements”, tantamount to a lack of preparation, leave supply chains in the US, China, India and Brazil more exposed to climate risks than those in France, the UK and Japan finds a new global study from CDP – formerly known as ‘Carbon Disclosure Project’ – and Accenture. “Supply Chain Sustainability Revealed: A Country Comparison – CDP Supply Chain Report 2014–15” offers a comprehensive overview of climate risks and opportunities that exist for supply chains globally based on data collected from 3,396 companies worldwide on behalf of 66 multinational corporations – i.e. members of CDP’s supply chain program – that account for $1.3 trillion in procurement spend…
Another new study on the subject of ‘supply chains’ published by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Accenture offers a framework to assess ”the value creation potential of supply chain practices” and makes suggestions that help prioritize sustainability investments. The World Economic Forum advocates in its “Beyond Supply Chains – Empowering Responsible Value Chains” report the adoption of a so-called “triple supply chain advantage – where companies achieve profitability while benefiting society and the environment.” The report identifies a set of 31 proven so-called “triple advantage improvement measures.” By implementing those practices as part of a more “holistic strategy” – as it pertains to sustainability efforts in a changing market environment – the report sees significant potential benefits in three areas…
http://breakingenergy.com/2015/02/11/global-supply-chains-face-serious-climate-change-risk/
why worry?
9 Feb: Reuters: Jonathan Saul: UPDATE 1-Baltic sea freight index at all-time low as weak cargo demand takes toll
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, slid to an all-time low on Monday as sluggish cargo demand especially from China battered sentiment.
The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping resources including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, was down 5 points, or 0.89 percent, at 554 points, the lowest level for which Baltic data is available that dates back to January 1985…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/09/baltic-index-idUSL5N0VJ47Z20150209
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***MUCH WAS MADE ON CNN – AND NO DOUBT ELSEWHERE IN THE MSM – ABOUT THE “We know in Apple that climate change is real” WHEN THE $700 BN ANNOUNCEMENT WAS MADE:
11 Feb: Reuters: Apple in big solar power deal, market cap closes over $700 billion
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Apple Inc will buy about $850 million of power from a new California solar farm to cut its energy bill, the iPhone maker said on Tuesday as its stock market value closed above $700 billion for the first time.
The First Solar Inc plant, with the capacity to power the equivalent of 60,000 homes, will be used to supply electricity for Apple’s new campus in Silicon Valley, and its other offices and 52 stores in the state, Chief Executive Tim Cook said at a Goldman Sachs technology conference in San Francisco…
Cook addressed investors as Apple’s stock market value closed at $710.74 billion for the first time, buoyed by record sales of big-screen iPhones and a December-quarter profit that was the largest in corporate history.
Apple was already the world’s largest publicly traded company by stock value…
The plant in Monterey County, California will also power an Apple data center in Newark, California that already relies on solar power…
***”We know in Apple that climate change is real. The time for talk is passed,” he added. “The time for action is now.”…
“Apple still has work to do to reduce its environmental footprint, but other Fortune 500 CEOs would be well served to make a study of Tim Cook,” Greenpeace said in a statement following Tuesday’s announcement…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/technology/a/26260297/apple-in-big-solar-power-deal-market-cap-closes-over-700-billion/
this looks like a takeover of solar in the UK:
8 Feb: UK Telegraph: Marion Dakers: Hedge fund makes £100m bet on British solar power
One of the world’s largest activist hedge funds has made a bet worth nearly £100m on Britain’s solar power industry, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose.
Elliott Capital Advisors, the UK arm of the American hedge fund, has put money into half a dozen unnamed projects capable of generating about 85 megawatts – making it one of the largest privately-held solar power operators in the country.
Elliott has hedged its bets by taking out short positions in five other renewable energy funds listed on the London stock market. It made its biggest bet against a firm last week, spending an estimated £9m to short 2.21pc of The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG).
The hedges amount to a £17m position against the publicly-traded renewable firms…
Elliott is shorting Bluefield Solar Income Fund, which has 12 projects in England and Wales; John Laing Environmental Assets, which invests in seven renewable projects; and Nextenergy Solar Fund, with three projects underway; and Foresight Solar Fund, which owns Wymeswold, until recently the country’s largest solar farm. …
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11396940/Hedge-fund-makes-100m-bet-on-British-solar-power.html
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LOL.
12 Feb: SMH: Noel Towell: Summer of discontent at BOM
The Bureau of Meteorology is battling to do its job after years of government-imposed funding cuts according to insiders who warn that lives are at risk as Australia faces this year’s “extreme weather season.”…
Lives could be lost to summer cyclones or bushfires as the bureau’s dwindling resources are stretched beyond capacity and unable to cope with multiple dangers (sic) weather situations at the same time, The Canberra Times has been told…
BOM staffers, through their union, Professionals Australia, say that years of cuts have left bureau bosses reliant on a Dad’s Army of retired meteorologists to plug the growing gaps in the ranks of its weather specialists…
The growing unease at the bureau, which finished 2013-2014 nearly $74 million in the red, is being exacerbated by delays in offering a new wage deal to its 1700 public servants who have not had a pay rise since July 2013…
Staffer: “For instance, if there was a bushfire somewhere, at the same time as a cyclone.
“We all want more and more weather forecasts… but the poor old forecasters are carrying the load, plugging the gaps…and the public has no idea.”…
But the BOM’s spokeswoman rejected her colleagues’ claims that the organisation was stretched beyond capacity.
“This is not correct,” she said…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/summer-of-discontent-at-bom-20150212-133m6r.html
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My humble suggestion to the BoM. Get out of politics and try doing the science you were hired to do. They have reduced the number of sites and automated them so why do they need so many “retired” volunteers? Does it really cost $374 million a year to monitor a few computer screens and publish a best guess synoptic chart? I have had a number of disagreements with Don White, a long range weather forecaster who writes for the Land newspaper, over his support for man made climate change but his forecasts are usually more accurate than the Bureau. He is one man with a heap of historical records and the bureau has 1700 employees and a $30 million computer but is mostly wrong? What’s going on?
Tony Abbott wants to reduce spending so the Bureau is a good place to start followed by the CSIRO which is also more into politics than science.
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12 Feb: ABC: Tasmanian fishing ship Antarctic Chieftain trapped in ice after breaking propeller
An international rescue effort is underway to free a damaged Tasmanian fishing ship trapped in Antarctic ice.
The 63-metre Antarctic Chieftain, which is operated by Australian Longline in Launceston, broke a propeller and became stuck about 1,450 kilometres north-east of the icy McMurdo Sound waters.
A New Zealand fishing vessel, The Janus, and an American icebreaker, The Polar Star, responded to calls for assistance from the stricken ship’s captain Rob Climpson…
The American icebreaker is expected to arrive on the scene late on Friday while the Janus is three or four days away…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-12/international-rescue-effort-underway-to-free-tasmanian-fishing/6089348
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12 Feb: SMH: Andrew Darby: Australian fishing vessel trapped in Antarctic ice awaiting rescue
According to Rescue Coordination Centre New Zealand, Antarctic Chieftain is in clear water amid large ice floes.
“A combination of an unexpected build-up of ice floes two metres to three metres thick and damage to the propeller means it cannot get back to the open sea without assistance,” RCCNZ manager Mike Hill said…
Mr Hill said once the icebreaker arrived at the scene, it may take some time to break through the ice to reach the Antarctic Chieftain…
US Coast Guard Vice Admiral Charles Ray, commander of the Pacific Area, said the incident was a “sobering reminder” of the importance of US icebreakers as human activity increased in the polar regions…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-fishing-vessel-trapped-in-antarctic-ice-awaiting-rescue-20150212-13cx9q.html
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Oops.
I got involved in a dispute with an alarmist on another site. I used my internet nickname ‘John_in_Oz’
I think my comments were clear and fair. In fact, I’m quite proud of them. Check them out for yourself. http://iwastesomuchtime.com/on/?i=99754#comment-1849664801
One thing I’m not proud of is that I reproduced Donna Laframboise’s wording and research without asking her.
I did acknowledge her in the comments of that site, but she doesn’t know I plagiarised her work- she doesn’t have comments on her site. I hope she’ll approve her work being reproduced, with acknowledgement.
If you see this, Donna, and disapprove, I authorise Jo to give you my email address- and I will delete all I did if you wish.
Jo, what is your view on your audience reproducing articles from your blog in similar circumstances?
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I’m not going to complain about no cyclones of note on my area since Yasi. If CO2 does that, fantastic! “Please sir, can I have more?”
Alas, pitiless natural variability strikes again.
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Shouldn’t be hard … petrol and diesel prices at the pump have dropped significantly. It’s time to replace the the little car with a big SUV…
Trouble is, I prefer two wheels to four, so pardon me if I stay on my free-parking-every/any-where motorcycle. 🙂
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It is not CO2 that defines cyclone activity – rather it is the presence (or absence) of orbiting ‘Dry’ Cycles.The current ‘Dry’ Cycle hierarchy started circa 110 degrees longitude (Beijing) in mid February 2014 has now reached Australia and almost completed its path across the continent on the way to finishing its first orbit (East to West with the Earth’s Magnetic Field.)
Note; the only cyclone activity near Australia this season has been a Cyclone over the Cocos/Keeling islands, and Typhoons in the Philippines and Japan – all to the West of the ‘Dry’ Cycle vanguard. and East of its ‘start point’.
Australian Farmers can expect a severe Five Year Dry Period between now and 2020 – exacerbated by the Lunar Metonic Cycle occurring in 2016.
The only relief from this drought period may come from explosive volcanic activity (albedo) mainly from Indonesia.
This particular series of ‘Dry’ Cycles last occurred in 1997/1979/etc.
This is the ‘X Factor’ at work. Note, we are dealing with ‘Dry’ Cycles – not the ‘Wet’/Normal Periods between them.
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Don, I’ve Googled the jargon you used. I understand every word you said, and I still don’t understand what you’re trying to say.
A useful rule of thumb for every internet commentator, is ‘define your terms every time your sentence means more than the meanings of the words it’s composed of’.
What’s an orbiting ‘Dry’ Cycle hierarchy?
I looked up ‘Lunar Metonic Cycle’; it’s a 19 year period. How does a 19 year period occur in 2016?
I’m an intelligent layman, I know more than the average person about Climate. That makes me (part of) the target audience of Jo’s blog. And I tell you honestly, I don’t understand what you’re trying to tell me.
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Has anyone told Will Steffen?
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Leo, I understand your difficulty. You will not get answers from Wikipedia or Google. For example, the Lunar Metonic Cycle is not 19 Years, it is 18.61 years.
An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (Alex S. Gaddes 1990) Including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055, is available as a free pdf from [email protected]
If you still have questions, we can take it from there.
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Extract from ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (Alex S. Gaddes 1990)
“Infinite
“It must be remembered that the cyclic system is made up of an infinite hierarchy of cycles of ever increasing period; in turn made up of the various single cycles and combinations thereof.
“Therefore the amplitude and period of the droughts is governed by the particular combination of the specific cycles which happen to apply.
“Witness the example (above) of the combination of the EMF minor cycle, with Chandler Wobble cycle, coinciding with the double metonic cycle of the Moon’s nodes.
“Should the above reasoning prove to be worthy of merit, it ought to follow that something similar would also apply to the wet cycles.
“It might turn out that the Sun is responsible for both our weather and long-term climate patterns; that some unknown X factor (you’ve named it the ‘W’ (weather) factor) is emanating from the Sun at a steady rate, retrograde, relative to the Earth’s rotation, in some way superimposes its influence on Earth’s upper air wave system, which (in turn) in accord with hierarchic principle, controls the climate/weather systems of our troposphere. …”
A Model
With regard to the idea of a westward drifting cyclic system, I developed a model which provided for a global meridional westward drift of the cycles, simultaneously across the latitudes. As intimated by the above letter to Dr Harrington, it was the one I used to explain the anomalous distribution of climate/weather patterns in time and space.
It soon came to my attention that the lands to our north, including Indonesia, New Guinea, South-east Asia and China, were struggling with the drought cycle at precisely the same time as were the Australians.
In early 1980 I forwarded a copy of my global forecast to Dr Reg Vines of the CSIRO. As well as droughts in time and space, the prediction was spot on for the Indian and South African droughts.” (p36)
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