CAT (away) + Mice = PLAY
Jo
is away from the computer for some fun and relaxation with her family.
Jo being “off-line” leaves the controls of this blog in the hands of volunteer moderators. 🙂
This time while the Cat is away:
Many regular posters here use web links to make their point(s). If those links could be found easily, others could use them both here at JoNova and also if we blog elsewhere.
We’d like to ask people to post their favorite links to web sites, papers, graphs, charts, data and articles that you refer to regularly when blogging. The idea is to create a collection of helpful reference material that hopefully will become an ongoing project.
Please type at least a few words explaining what your link is about and why you use it. Post as many different links as you like and don’t worry about duplicating a link someone else posted. If you know that an image you link to is free from copyright issues please note that as well. We moderators may go back and embed the image so that it appears here instead of having only a link.
Feel free to discuss any link posted but lets try not obscure the purpose which is to gather reference material. Don’t forget to use the “thumbs” up or down to vote on the usefulness of a particular link.
Links to papers that are behind pay walls won’t help much. Try to find the whole document if possible.
Links to humorous media like cartoons or U-tube are OK too.
*Troll-ing will be severely limited in this thread and off-topic or non-conforming posts will be pruned.
Moderator…
Do you know that some places “number 2” is having a poop.
Your quite funny! 🙂
[Good one Joe, I changed the name to “version 2” ! ] cheers!
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1974 CIA study on the Coming Ice Age
http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
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Trenberth gets a real spanking from Willis Eschenbach, and deservedly so.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/15/unequivocal-equivocation/
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There are so many good pieces out there. This link is to list after list of links organised into various categories. It may be from 2007 or 2008, but I have not been able to find an updated version:
http://z4.invisionfree.com/Popular_Technology/index.php?showtopic=2050
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In my day job, it is useful to know what
liesnews stories are current in various parts of the world.If I know what
propaganda is being spreadnews is being reported, I can allow for any bias in my work …http://www.ipl.org/div/news/
links to part of the “Internet Index” [US developed] that gives access to commercial newspapers and magazines by country by region. So if you want to know what is hot in Botswana (apart from the temperature) …
Don’t try getting anything useful out of “The Times” though – they are hiding behind a pay wall, because they believe that only they know what is going on – idiots.
Repost: fixed typo
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An alternative explanation for natural climate variation that makes eminent sense (to me); doesn’t require a supercomputer to calculate; actually correlates precisely to historical climate records and provides an a clear prediction for future climate variations. Fred Bailley’s work is easily dismissed by AGW advocates due to his lack of formal qualifications but the charts he produces closely match the historical record (something none of the models can claim). I have no doubt his predictions (out to 2045) will be far more reliable than any IPCC fabrication. It may take that long for his work to be taken seriously.
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Not sure why the link did not appear in my comment above. Trying again …
An alternative explanation for natural climate variation that makes eminent sense (to me); doesn’t require a supercomputer to calculate; actually correlates precisely to historical climate records and provides an a clear prediction for future climate variations. Fred Bailley’s work is easily dismissed by AGW advocates due to his lack of formal qualifications but the charts he produces closely match the historical record (something none of the models can claim). I have no doubt his predictions (out to 2045) will be far more reliable than any IPCC fabrication. It may take that long for his work to be taken seriously.
Solar Chords
[edits by]ED
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My favourite site for up to date climate metrics is climate4you.com It has a great discussion on clouds and climate and some interesting graphs in some of the updates like CO2 vs OLR. Can someone explain why an increase in CO2 is causing the earth to loose more energy 🙂
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I use this site quite often, it has links to all sorts of things.
http://www.refdesk.com/
Just ran across this alarmist USGS report. California super storms.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/
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Because I love statistics that are clear-cut and meaningful I often find myself drawn to Australia’s Energy Flows 2006-07 (I wish they’d update this one):
http://www.australianminesatlas.gov.au/mapping/files/australian_energy_flows_2006-07.pdf
Here’s a more up-to-date but less attractive (IMO) version at ABARE for 2009:
http://www.abare.gov.au/interactive/09_auEnergy/images/graphs/2_4.jpg
When you see the enormity of the energy flows and how little renewables actually supply to our economy it adds overwhelming perspective to the debate whenever greenies carp on about phasing out coal or fossil fuels altogether. Phasing out fossil fuels in a decade or five is simple unrealistic without a massive disrupting new technology (fusion perhaps?) … such a technology does not yet exist today.
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Sea Ice Page
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
ENSO/Sea Level/SST Page
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ensosea-levelsea-surface-temperature-page/
NASA Eyes on the Earth 3D
http://climate.nasa.gov/Eyes/
NASA Space Weather
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html
SO2 Aerosols Imaging
http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/index.php
NOAA Buoy Center
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
NOAA Tides and Currents
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/station_retrieve.shtml
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/
Ship Positions, Water Temp, Wind Speed, Etc.
http://sailwx.info/wxobs/watertemp.phtml
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There is a wonderful compilation of all manner of things caused by AGW and catastrophic CC. HILARIOUS.
www,numberwatch.co.uk.
[ http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/number%20watch.htm ] ED
Also an excellent 48 min video on AGW CCC from Christian Biblical Creationists perspective access it at answersingenesis .com. go to video titled ; ” Global Warming ; A Scientific and Biblical Expose of Climate change ” It includes interviews with Dr John Christie ,Dr Patrick Michaels, Dr John Spencer, Dr Jason Lisle and Dr Michael Oard and others. Please suspend your anti Christian axioms and give it a watch.
Sorry I can’t link to it directly.
[The correct site name is answersingenesis.org the video link is: http://www.answersingenesis.org/media/video/ondemand/global-warming/global-warming ] ED
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Can’t go past Tom Nelsons site for the most up to date happenings I think.
[ guessing this is it? http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/ ]
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Here’s a basic history of computer climate modeling from an unskeptical orthodox source. Still, I found it very useful in deconstructing the the Warmist ethos behind faith in computer prophecy. A must have link for serious climate skeptics.
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm#L_0753
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Dr. Ryan Maue’s website. Must have link to keep on top of tropical cyclone activity globally. Remember the Church of Warming Scripture prophecises that cyclone activity MUST be anomalously high due to all the heat building up in the oceans. How’s that prophecy working out?
Dr Maue:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/index.html
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Here’s a good summary of the current cagw situation from the great Richard Lindzen. From WUWT.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/17/richard-lindzen-a-case-against-precipitous-climate-action/#more-31890
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The End Times Are Near! Ye of Little Faith!
The Science is Settle. The Debate is Over. We Have A Consensus. The Time To Act is Now.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/slides/large/05.02.jpg
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/slides/large/05.24.jpg
The Bible, Acts 3-24
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Everything Solar and space weather. Must have link as we enter the “Gore Minimum.”
http://www.solarcycle24.com/
The discussion forums are incredible…you could spend dayz there..
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?
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Environmentalism IS the new religion. The Greens are the new fundamentalists and climate creationists:
Joel Garreau, Environmentalism as Religion
http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/environmentalism-as-religion
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Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it:
—Ernst Lehmann, Biologischer Wille. Wege und Ziele biologischer Arbeit im neuen Reich, München, 1934, pp. 10-11. Lehmann was a professor of botany who characterized National Socialism as “politically applied biology.
As quoted in Eco Fascism / Fascist Ideology : the Green Wing of the Nazi Party and Its Historical Antecedents by Peter Staudenmaier
http://www.scribd.com/doc/8750846/Eco-Fascism-Fascist-Ideology-the-Green-Wing-of-the-Nazi-Party-and-Its-Historical-Antecedents-by-Peter-Staudenmaier#outer_page_21
* * *
Fast forward to contemporary Australia:
–from the Australian Green’s “Environmental Principles.” Sounds so innocent… Politically Applied Biology, anyone?
http://greens.org.au/policies/environment/environmental-principles
Ouch! Doesn’t history suck? 10-10-10 and National Socialism are “teleconnecting” Final Solutions.
Green mass murder of “denialist” school children fantasy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=JfnddMpzPsM
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Here is the link that turned me from “not knowing” to a raving sceptic: http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/04/1859/
Once you understand the role that UHI has had, all fears ago away to be replaced with anger and frustration. Not “Jared Loughner” anger; more like the kind of anger a teacher has when she catches one of her students cheating on a test.
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Every generation has to struggle for individual liberty from the powers that would enslave us. My grandparents served in WWII to keep us free, today we must organize to resist the plans our own political elites have for us…
“Climate Change” and the “Limits to Growth” are propaganda campaigns to sow fear and cultural doubt in our capacity as a nation to grow freely while dealing responsibly with the future without sacrificing our natural-born civil rights to ever expanding government intrusion our lives.
Ironically, the very cure for “climate change” our academic overlords prescribe–statist command economics– would not only ensure our children live as impoverished serfs, but would also arrest techno-social evolution at about today’s level ensuring their prophecies of civilizational collapse are self-fullfilling.
The only solution to climate evolution is to free up human creativity and technological innovation potential by establishing networked global free markets of goods, services, property and IDEAS. By breaking out of the chains statist authoritarian bureaucracies shackle human creativity with, we could release humankind’s natural potential to reach unprecedented levels of technological sophistication.
Ultimately, our goal is a Kardashev Type I civilization, a civilization that controls all the energy available on a single planet…
http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=2922
From there the sky is literally the limit:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
* * *
Earth’s Energy budget in one easy-to-grok gif:
http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/EDDOCS/images/Erb/components2.gif
Almost all of the Earth’s solar energy goes untapped, ultimately flowing back to space, just like most of Australia’s fresh water simply glides unimpeded by hydro-engineers back to the ocean or evaporates in outback salt pans.
The limits to growth aren’t even visible in terms of energy or water availability on Planet Earth. Those who say otherwise are either ideological fanatics or ignorant or perhaps both.
* * *
It’s all about power. Physical and political.
So when our state owned and controlled media tells you that our economic freedom is doomed because it is based upon growth and that there are limits to growth, that we must all sacrifice our children’s and grandchildren’s potential to the false god of sustainability, remember that in 100 years time today’s “limit to growth” handwringers will seem as daft as Luddites destroying textile mills in 1812. But today’s economic Luddites have a more sinister agenda than Enoch Taylor. They would consolidate all socio-economic power in the hands of a tiny technocratic elite whose carbon footprints will no doubt dwarf the serfs—that’d be the rest of us losers—they command.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2011/3087989.htm
—
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“China-style dictatorship of climatologists
NASA’s Hansen prefers rule by decree to fight ‘global warming’ ”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/17/china-style-dictatorship-of-climatologists/
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Got this via Bolt (whom I rarely read), but this probably helps explain the popularity of the green activist movements:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8262746/Mark-Kennedy-15-other-undercover-police-infiltrated-green-movement.html
Just lay back and think of Gaia…
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A comment by Jeremy Jan 17, 2011 at 10:40 AM at Climate Audit
http://climateaudit.org/2011/01/17/team-policy-on-acknowledgements/#more-12802
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Prof Richard Lindzen:
“When an issue like global warming is around for over twenty years, numerous agendas are developed to exploit the issue. The interests of the environmental movement in acquiring more power, influence, and donations are reasonably clear. So too are the interests of bureaucrats for whom control of CO2 is a dream-come-true. After all, CO2 is a product of breathing itself. Politicians can see the possibility of taxation that will be cheerfully accepted because it is necessary for ‘saving’ the earth. Nations have seen how to exploit this issue in order to gain competitive advantages. But, by now, things have gone much further. The case of ENRON (a now bankrupt Texas energy firm) is illustrative in this respect. Before disintegrating in a pyrotechnic display of unscrupulous manipulation, ENRON had been one of the most intense lobbyists for Kyoto. It had hoped to become a trading firm dealing in carbon emission rights. This was no small hope. These rights are likely to amount to over a trillion dollars, and the commissions will run into many billions. Hedge funds are actively examining the possibilities; so was the late Lehman Brothers. Goldman Sachs has lobbied extensively for the ‘cap and trade’ bill, and is well positioned to make billions. It is probably no accident that Gore, himself, is associated with such activities. The sale of indulgences is already in full swing with organizations selling offsets to one’s carbon footprint while sometimes acknowledging that the offsets are irrelevant. The possibilities for corruption are immense. Archer Daniels Midland (America’s largest agribusiness) has successfully lobbied for ethanol requirements for gasoline, and the resulting demand for ethanol may already be contributing to large increases in corn prices and associated hardship in the developing world (not to mention poorer car performance). And finally, there are the numerous well meaning individuals who have allowed propagandists to convince them that in accepting the alarmist view of anthropogenic climate change, they are displaying intelligence and virtue For them, their psychic welfare is at stake.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/17/richard-lindzen-a-case-against-precipitous-climate-action/#more-31890
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Interesting post there Wes… as a singulatarian by belief (for lack of anything more sensible – I don’t have a faith as such) I think there is a distinct possibility that virtual reality (a la Matrix if you will) will offer the ultimate trip into our imaginations at some point in the not-too-distant future (think a couple of decades from now, tops). At that point I fully expect people to totally lose themselves in the system. It will make video game addiction today look like very small potatoes.
As for drumer mouse, it made me think of the best percussion track of all time IMHO:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPSo0YShS3k&feature=fvw
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Joe Bastardi writes – he does so “SUNDAY MORNING” (16 jan):
“And by the way, the ice, which has been lagging behind, is about to get a big boost as the AO goes toward positive. Remember that forecast is FOR THE SUMMER.. that we will have less ice melt than the past 5 years. Its not summer yet, and the areas lagging are about to turn colder for the rest of winter and spring. The US navy has been doing studies and they reveal precisely what people who dont have their head buried in the sand know, the THICK SEA ICE IS INCREASING! You can look at that yourself here.
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/trends-in-arctic-ice-thickness-and-volume- 211.php
Naturally, this is not showing up in the mainstream, and it takes a blog that is trying to offer counter ideas to show this. But its also fascinating to me that apparently a military organization, who by their very nature have to confront cold hard facts in their dealings, since lives are on the line immediately in their jobs, come up with a different conclusion than is seen in the civilian sector, WHO THEY ARE MADE TO PROTECT.. no matter what the cost. You do the math. ”
😉
Well now that Sweet joanne is on a WELL DESERVED holliday, Check out the Bastardi link to my article on thick ice! I think people should know.
K.R. Frank Lansner
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And then…while the cats away hehe.. the discussion of UHI. There are some sceptics that takes typecal alarmist viewpoints and “logic” on UHI. It would be cool if more sceptics spoke out so the UHI problem is not burried.
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/where-should-we-expect-uhi-in-temperature-data-1979-2009-212.php
K.R. Frank
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‘wes george’ has provided some very important links, quotes, and insights in this message thread. I looked up his one (comment #15)on the history of computer modelling of climate. It is written by someone clearly smitten by what might be called the ‘alarm-virus’, or ‘panic-bug’, since it bends over backwards to give the modellers the benefit of the doubt. Look at this passage for example:#
‘The IPCC pressed the modelers to work out a consensus on a specific range of possibilities to be published in the 2007 report. The work was grueling. After a group had invested so much of their time, energy, and careers in their model, they could become reluctant to admit its shortcomings to outsiders and perhaps even to themselves. A frequent result was “prolonged and acrimonious fights in which model developers defended their models and engaged in serious conflicts with colleagues” over whose approach was best.(111) Yet in the end they found common ground, working out a few numbers that all agreed were plausible.’
Now to me, that speaks of collusion for the sake of manipulating public opinion via the slick PR skills of the IPCC. Yet the author seems to regard it as a step along the way of progress.
I think the article is very worthwhile for the details of the history, and also for the little peek it seems to give at the author’s supine perspective.
Others have noted the alarming coding and data management shambles revealed by the ‘HarryReadMe’ file from the CRU (e.g. most recently: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html). Others have noted that the code for climate models may not have been created using modern ‘best-practices'(a reformisst group exists here: http://clearclimatecode.org/the-climate-code-foundation/), and may be very complex kludges of FORTRAN put together at least in part by specialists in areas other than programming (e.g. see comments to the article posted here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm, the article itself is fatuous but that triggered many of the more useful comments!).
The incompetence of the models for back-, now-, and fore-, casting has been established by many studies (e.g. ‘Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.’, http://itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/864/).
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Version 2, you need a cooler name…hmmm..Verminator possibly? How about Troll-Buster? 🙂
I enjoy what Dr. Judith Curry is trying to do by reviewing the science and looking at the problems current science has put onto themselves. She knows that the AGW theory is crashing hard and looks at all the aspects that is causing the crash and how to change the current system.
Interesting forums with many indepth discussions that cover a wide range of topics in climate science and theories.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/01/16/climate-change-and-security/
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Comment 21 by ‘wes george’ led to this post on my blog: http://climatelessons.blogspot.com/2011/01/is-cuddly-green-trojan-horse-for-nasty.html
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Politicians are realists who only believe in getting voted into power. The extent of their true ‘belief’ in Global Warming is obvious in this clip from 2009.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q20cnn8vOfg
Pointman
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To help understand the political background to Climategate:
http://www.stopcp.com/cpclimategate.php
.
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http://www.forbes.com/2010/12/23/media-climate-change-warming-opinions-contributors-larry-bell_print.html
Hot Sensations v Cold Facts found at UnReal Climate who have tried to demolish the arguments presented and of course just like their hypothesis they fail. Of course someone should tell our Gav and his mates that if you are going to demolish a building use a pick axe and not a tooth pick.
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Mr Delingpole has written a lot about Climategate:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100072360/warmists-we-cant-win-the-game-so-lets-change-the-rules/
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Lubos Motl has a great 104 point rebuttal to John Cook’s (Skeptical Science)
“Skeptic Arguments and What the Science Says” drivel.
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/John_Cook_Skeptical_Science.pdf
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Some good stuff here too: http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming
[of course!] ED
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I haven’t repeated any of the sites mentioned above (I think). Here are a few favourites in no particular order:
http://www.climaterealists.com They are not anti global warming, just anti alarmism, but they also reproduce articles and papers from the pro-alarmists so you do get ‘the other side’ from time to time.
http://www.c3headlines.com They often provide abstracts and articles on recently published peer reviewed research papers on climate science.
http://www.drroyspencer.com Dr Spencer is a knowledgeable and dispassionate scientist who is a seeker of truth not funding!
http://thegwpf.org Benny Pieser and his team of expert contributors keep abreast of both the climate science and the politics. Well written, easy to read.
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Here’s a story from WUWT that may be a good case study on how much of the alarmist hype is supported by questionable adjustments to raw temperature data sets. It appears adjustments are being made to rural sites to make them consistent with the urban data set. As such it appears these adjustments are adding BACK the UHI effect! If true this is a disgrace! Perhaps without such adjustments we’d not even be discussing AGW as a problem today?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/18/daleo-on-noaa-and-nasa/#more-31921.
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I find the site extremely helpful.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/
All the posts are organized by topics in systematic way. Everything is thoroughly based on real findings and data analysis. It is a treasury of graphs, maps, tables, methods. When I wont to know something, I begin my search here.
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Are opponents of Wind Power terrorists?
http://windconcernsontario.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/citizens%E2%80%99-action-group-called-%E2%80%98terrorists%E2%80%99-by-canadian-wind-industry-member/
January 18 Toronto – Wind Concerns Ontario, the province’s wind action umbrella group has called on the president of the Canadian Wind Energy Association to condemn a stunning assertion by its member John Andrews of IPC Energy. Andrews, in a statement yesterday, declared that Wind Concerns Ontario is ‘a group of terrorists’.
John Laforet, president of the volunteer association stated, “As a member of the Canadian Wind Energy Association, John Andrews should be held to some standard by the industrial wind lobby, which represents his interests on his behalf. This violent rhetoric damages the image of the industry as a whole.” John Laforet said.
This would be funny if the guy (Andrews) were not serious…
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John Shade, I’m always pleased to get a hat tip, thanks mate 😉
Adolf Balik, I’m not sure how I failed to have http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/ in my bookmark folder, but thank you for the clue. It’s a treasure trove alright!
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Hundreds hospitalised in Vietnam cold snap!!!
BYE BYE GLOBAL WARMING!!!!
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1104529/1/.html
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Warning!
This NCEP map shows todays global temperature with 1979-2009 as basis.
Im addicted now :-0
Until now in january the values ha been falling from arounf 0 K anomaly to – 0,1 K anomaly and by no we see in the build in prognosis, that around 20-23 january we will go under – 0,3 K global temperature anomaly:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp_c.html#picture
Dont use if you cant control it.
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Most futurists, from Robert Malthus through to the Club of Rome and Paul Ehrlich and Al Gore have used their vision to forecast only imminent apocalypse, which inevitably is forever postponed until tomorrow. Amazingly the prophets of doom never apologize for their failed forecasts. For instance our own CSIRO spent taxpayer money to show that the apocalypse forecast in the “Limits to Growth” actually did occur, we just didn’t notice it because global prosperity is soaring! Oh, and btw, according the CSIRO report we’re still gonna die tomorrow!!!
—A Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality, Graham Turner, CSIRO
http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf
In plain english, our taxpayer funded scientists tweaked a sim world computer game to confirm their bias that humans are too stupid to survive more than another 40 years. Obviously, how homo sapiens muddled through the last 200,000 years isn’t examined by the CSIRO since such an inquiry would likely not confirm their cultural bias.
The unspoken premise shared by all doomsayer futurists (and the CSIRO, BOM, all academic social scientists and Haitian Voodoo shamans) is that humanity is basically flawed, tragically self-destructive and perhaps even ultimately evil. We shall reap what we sow, and what we sow is foul. Population bombs, silent springs, ice ages, hot ages, Peak Wood, Peak Metals, Peak Oil, Peak Food, the list of impeding doom changes with the fashion of the day, but the threat never go away, it just recede always into tomorrow.
But there is another kind of futurist who, while probably being almost as wrong about the details of tomorrow get the big picture right, because they recognize the fathomless potential that humankind has actually been gifted with by natural evolution or God (if you are so inclined to be of faith.) And because they understand exactly where we are in the 200,000 year history of our species. If these are the fabled End Times, then it is only so because we are about to (or already have) embark upon a grand new journey.
Ray Kurzweil is one of these positive futurists that can clearly see practical ways forward for humanity that do not require negative economic growth, fascist government controls, or the depopulation of planet Earth. His team reports on the rapidly accelerating forces of human progress and technology, progress which ultimately should give us all great cause for hope for tomorrow, rather than the despair and resignation peddled by those who would use fear to manipulate us.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/
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Wes if you are a fan of Kurzweil I assume you are aware of the Singularity University:
http://singularityu.org/
In particular the videos:
http://singularityu.org/videos/
I highly recommend Jonathan Zittrain’s on Civic Technologies, but there are a lot of gems in there:
http://singularityu.org/videos/2009/12/jonathan-zittrain-civic-technologies-and-the-future-of-the-internet/
I have linked John Mauldin’s video before in the past … he has a solid grasp on the financial crisis that is looming. You might also be interested to know a movie is to be released “The Singularity is Near”:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1049412/
That should help to popularisee the more positive outlook for humanity, assuming it is ever released. Michio Kaku is another excellent futurist speaker:
http://mkaku.org/
This is a particularly entertaining video of his:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=219YybX66MY
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Meanwhile the ABC indulges another greenie waxing lyrical on teh doom that faces us all:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/43102.html
My response in a similar vein to the author (if posted):
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Yeah Bulldust – this is what I posted:
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Here are some cccoooollllddd weather reports. Brrrr.
http://www.iceagenow.com/
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Lake Nyos:
http://www.neatorama.com/2007/05/21/the-strangest-disaster-of-the-20th-century/
AFAIK, Lake Nyos is the only place in the world where a volcanic CO2 vent is totally captured and can actually be analyzed and measured volumetrically. Per the link, the Nyos volcano seeps 700 million CF/year of CO2. That’s 36,000 metric tons of CO2 annually. [Correct tons of CO2 to tons of carbon by multiplying by (12/44).]
Subsurface volcanoes:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12218
If we assume, as the second link states, that there are 3,000,000 subsurface volcanoes in the ocean with similar output to Nyos, then world-wide there would be 30 gigatons of volcanic carbon per year, a figure that dwarfs fossil fuel burning by a substantial amount. Or did I screw up the math? Somebody check me.
Carbon cycle:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle4.php
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This is a good website regards submarine volcanoes. It also covers ocean acidification.
http://carbon-budget.geologist-1011.net/
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I think this site is mandatory reading for balance:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
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I also really like these graphs and interpretation of the ice core paleo-temperature record: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/hockey-stick-observed-in-noaa-ice-core-data/
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Burt Rutan, (who is an engineer) has a variety of good stuff on his web site
http://rps3.com/Pages/Burt_Rutan_on_Climate_Change.htm
Including this PDF: http://rps3.com/Files/AGW/EngrCritique.AGW-Science.v4.pdf that is designed such that it can be used as an educational presentation.
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This US government site allows you to look at US location temperature records: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ushcn_map_interface.html
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And this is useful if you have ever heard warmists invoke “Dunning Kruger effect” in a derogatory manner. The author in the link; John Cook is a well known warmist and he exclaims:
This rational understanding is unpalatable to the average warmist on a warmist site.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Dunning-Kruger-effect-and-the-climate-debate.html
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More later!
[sorry, caught in the spam filter]ED
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Thanks for the cool links, Bulldust.
I remain agnostic about the so-called singularity and skeptical of all futurist proclamations (including my own.) However, it strikes me that all we ever hear in the media, especially our state-owned and operated propaganda service, the ABC, are self-serving tales of impending future doom and gloom. Naturally, the only solution our dotty old Aunt ever offers is the continued chipping away of individual liberty in favour of ever-expanding government control of our private lives and property. Apparently, the solution to everything is higher taxes, more technocrats, another high council or NGO and of course more and more regulations.
In fact, there is a totally opposite view of the future that is optimistic and hopeful.
The positive view of the future actually conforms better with the historical trajectory of human progress over the last 400 years. After all, prophets of doom have been predicting the end is nigh since before the Old Testament was put to papyrus. Yet The End never seems to arrive. Life is progressively getting better for billions on a global scale, but you’d never know if you get your news from the ABC.
The fundamental pillar of the CAGW myth is the cultural bias of our media and academic elites AGAINST human and technological progress as the fount of all that is good in the world. Belief in progress, faith in the principles that are the foundation of Western civilization such as The Enlightenment and Christian values and the right of all humans to freely pursue happiness, individuality and property are so boringly petty bourgeois.
So the ABC drones on about how collectivist insect societies are as clever as humans and that, in fact, we possess no free will of our own. Therefore, why even pretend we are fundamentally individuals with rational minds. The hive mind beckons.
Aussie Philosopher Peter Singer’s work shows the life of a pig or cow is as valuable as that of a sentient human being. Totalitarian Cuba is hailed as a pleasant model for energy self-sufficiency. And obviously, although Capitalism has made the average person richer than the average medieval prince, it’s unsustainable, therefore, the future must be a catastrophe, an apocalypse MUST be waiting to happen. It can’t be otherwise for then every meme, every screed, every value our media/academic elites hold true and dear is coswallop.
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wes george:
If you haven’t read it, I would highly recommend “Scarcity and Growth” by Barnett and Morse. It was the original shoot down of the Club of Rome’s (CoR) “Limits to Growth.”
Exactly as you state, the prophets of doom, as exmplified by the CoR, always ignore basic factors like technical substitution and technological advances. They assume a technologically static world and project the future based upon current practices. It is a meaningless exercise, of course, as any rational thinker will realise. It is like the people who predicted city streets in places like London and New York would be brimming with horse poo, and then the automobile came along…
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Subject: ANNA BLIGH AND JULIA GILLARD TRY AND SILENCE CRITICISM OF THEIR FLOOD MISMANAGEMENT!!
A blogger on the Piers Ackerman website found this article after I put out a search for it yesterday – strange that it’s on a socialist website. I couldn’t find any other reference to it. Anne
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/jan2011/mart-j18.shtml
“The powers-that-be left us for dead”
Australia: Grantham flood survivor threatened with arrest
By Richard Phillips
18 January 2011
EXCERPT:
Queensland police threatened Grantham service station owner Martin Warburton, 41, with arrest on Thursday if he attempted to speak with Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Queensland Premier Anna Bligh about the failure of their governments to provide timely and adequate assistance to the flood-ravage community. Warburton, who is chairman of the Grantham relief committee and a former councillor, was told by the local police sergeant he could be arrested and charged for “inciting fear and anger in the community”.
Martin Warburton
The threat was issued a day before Gillard and Bligh were scheduled to visit a local evacuation centre and followed warnings to the media by Queensland Flood Recovery Taskforce head, Major-General Mick Slater, that any reportage of community “divisiveness” would hamper the “success” of the recovery operation. These developments further highlight the political reality that the principal concerns of the Flood Recovery Taskforce is not the plight of ordinary people but protecting the state and federal governments and corporate interests.
Grantham, a small town of 370 people in the Lockyer Valley about 100 kilometres west of Brisbane, is regarded as the “epicentre” of flash-flooding that hit Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley communities in south-east Queensland.
The town was devastated by a massive wall of water that swept through the town on January 10, destroying all in its path—houses, cars and small businesses. More than 30 people have been killed in the Queensland floods. Eighteen of those are from the Lockyer Valley and Toowoomba areas, with 10 people still listed as missing, feared dead. Residents were given no official warnings of the impending disaster but fought heroically to save those caught in the raging torrent.
Grantham and nearby vegetable crops engulfed
Martin Warburton spoke with the World Socialist Web Site yesterday about the police threat and the physical and psychological impact of the flood on the small community. He said Grantham residents were outraged by lack of flood warnings, inadequate support and lack of night-time security in the town following the disaster.
Martin Warburton: I spent a whole day in Gatton [a nearby town] trying to get answers or an ear that would listen to our concerns after the flood wiped us off the map. Admittedly I wasn’t dressed for the occasion—I had my old clothes on and was ready to go back home and begin cleaning up—but a mongrel dog in a pound would have been treated better. By sundown that afternoon I realised I wasn’t getting anywhere.
We’d been locked out of the town, which is now classified as a crime scene, and told there had to be a complete search and recovery through the whole area. We agreed with that but wanted our town secured at night.
People in Grantham have been through the worst experience of their life and the last thing they should be worrying about is whether their possessions would be there when they returned. I’d guarantee if this happened in Anna Bligh’s or the prime minister’s neighbourhoods there’d be round the clock security.
But it didn’t matter what we said they wouldn’t listen and the authorities kept falsely accusing us of wanting people taken off search and rescue. I finally reached the mayor and we went to the media. I told the press we’d been diplomatic but we were getting nowhere and they should listen to what we had to say about the lack of support from our governments.
Prime Minister Gillard and Anna Bligh were coming out here on Friday but instead of being able to raise these issues I was told in no uncertain terms by the local police sergeant that if I approached either of them, or made a scene in front of the media, I’d taken away and charged with inciting fear and anger in the community. I have witnesses—the local mayor Steve Jones heard it.
Richard Phillips: What was your reaction?
MW: I was shocked and tried explaining the situation to the local sergeant. You’d think there’d be a bit of compassion or sensitivity, but he wasn’t interested. I don’t know whether he was being directed or where his orders came from but he made it quite clear that they—the politicians—didn’t want any bad press.
(EDITED:to reduce the article length and provide excerpt.Please do not post entire articles) CTS
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“In a review paper published June 23 (2010) online in the journal Mineralium Deposita, Cathles, Cornell professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, writes that while land-based deposits may be a dwindling source of valuable minerals, deposits on the ocean floor could power humanity for centuries.”
—Lawrence Cathles, Cornell professor of earth and atmospheric sciences
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/Oct10/CathlesMinerals.html
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/10/minerals-on-ocean-floor-could-provide.html
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Wow, Cornell? Must be a hotbed of Tea Party uncivil thought crimes!
If as citizens of a democracy we are fed false information about the state of the Earth’s resources then we are more likely to vote for demagogues who traffic in delusions and fear. This is why the ABC’s (Australia’s publicly funded and primary news source) failure to accurately report a balanced and unbiased version of reality is the greatest public betrayal possible in an information-based society. For a misinformed public can not be expected to execute its democratic duties in a rational, evidence-based manner.
Fraudulent prophecies of gloom and doom are designed to promote Green policies, which are guaranteed to make such prophecies self-fulfilling, which will justify further authoritarianism, which will further decay civil society and so on down the dialectic tubes our national fate spirals into oblivion…
Fortunately, thus far, we have been saved by the Internet and the likes of Jo Nova, et al. I suspect the next turn of the screw will be a sly effort to curtail the unfettered freedom of expression (or access) we now enjoy on the WWW. National Broadband Network controlled by a union-vetted federal technocracy, anyone?
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wes, you are in excellent form and your comments about the misery guts attitude prevailing among the commentariat and our public intellectuals [ie Hamilton] are as usual spot on; Bulldust and janama have already referred to a classic example of the dreary prevailing view that humanity is doomed which is at, where else, the abc and Unleashed; here it is again:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/43102.html
Like Bulldust and janama I too submitted a comment but I fear my natural joie de vivre has made me persona non grata amongst the bum scrappers so I will inflict it here:
“So Horton is a “Writer and polymath”.
I grew up in the 1950’s on a diet of S-F written by such people as Heinlein [before he took a left turn to navel gazing], Asimov, Clarke, Blish, Anderson and Vance and later Niven and Robinson with his remarkable terra-forming of Mars series. Despite some dystopias and the still operating reflex of the cold war paranoia, the prevailing mood was a can do one; the Universe was huge and opportunity was boundless for both individuals and species which had the ingenuity and drive to take those opportunities.
60 years later, the supposed length of AGW, and we have pusillanimous tripe like this. It’s as though there is no Universe, life is doomed everywhere unless it subscribes to the principle of sustainability and dares not exceed the prescribed natural limits which are ideologically rather than physically defined. The implication in this stultifying example of mediocrity is that there can be no more technological advancement and humanity has peaked; it is like those pontificating fools who in the last century or so declared that all science was known, the science is settled and the bureaucrats are now in charge.
The psychology behind this limiting definition of reality, I think, comes from the high opinion that people like this author have about themselves; and given this high opinion their reality is what they can understand and perceive; this is like a perversion of Kant’s transcendental idealist philosophy that time and space are not materially real but merely the ideal a priori condition of our internal intuition; in short Horton does not understand or care or accept as real anything outside his perception.
What a dismal prospect the future will be if it is controlled by the likes of this author!
Propagandist and pessimist more like it.”
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Here’s a good reason why we need to keep telling the masses of the ‘Global Warming Deception’ in my own words.
For example here is a so called ‘conspiracy theory’ which turns out to be the truth.
http://www.infowars.com/stuxnet-another-conspiracy-theory-turns-out-to-be-true/
Would Bella Swan in Twilight be called a conspiracy theorist if for example she told Mike Newton that their world is the home of vampires and werewolves?
It seems that the term conspiracy is used to demolish debate and to paint the propogator of the idea as a nutcase even if it is 100% true.
The point of what I’m saying here is that we must keep telling the truth and only by doing this can we stop this globalist dictatorial takeover of society through the green method.
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Two recent sites I have found are http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/ which presents some of the historical articles on AGW. I think it was from here that I found http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf a 300+ page cronicle of weather catastrophies starting about 6 AD. Seems there were a lot of unprecedented climate events.
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This is REALLY impressive!!!
Almost ALL of the northern hemisphere land mass is covered in cloud cover.
http://uk.weather.com/mapRoom/mapRoom?lat=10&lon=0&lev=1&from=global&type=sat&title=Satellite
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This is a good thorough refutation of the “warmest year ever” claim.
http://climatedepot.com/a/9435/Oh-My-2010-tied-for-hottest-year-Relax-it-is-purely-a-political-statement–Even-NASAs-Hansen-admits-it-is-not-particularly-important–Prof-mocks-hottest-decade-claim-as-a-joke
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Warmists: ‘We can’t win the game, so let’s change the rules’……….
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100072360/warmists-we-cant-win-the-game-so-lets-change-the-rules/
THESE AHOLES PROMOTING THIS GLOBAL WARMING FRAUD NEVER CEASE TO SURPRISE!
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My postcard format plot of very long running thermometer records is here: http://oi49.tinypic.com/rc93fa.jpg
It quite simply refutes any suggestion that recent warming is excessive.
[NikFromNYC, thanks it is very nice.! Do you mind if we post the actual image within your post here?] ED
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Speaking of temperature here is a graph of RAW data from 613 global locations which have continuous temperature records from 1900; please find the AGW component:
http://justdata.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/continuitybysectors1900-2009sine.jpg
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A GREAT WEBSITE EXPOSING THE GLOBAL WARMING SCAM……..
http://www.globalclimatescam.com/
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Did warmists convince the Wivenhoe dam operators to leave it too full?
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/did_warmists_convince_the_wivenhoe_dam_operators_to_leave_it_too_full/
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Guess what the Government’s warmist will say about the floods?
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/guess_what_the_governments_warmist_will_say_about_the_floods/
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Why couldn’t the Bureau predict what private forecasters could?
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/why_couldnt_the_bureau_predict_what_private_forecasters_could/
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Urgent revision of fiscal policies needed in crisis….
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/urgent_revision_of_fiscal_policies_needed_in_crisis/
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Everyone needs to check-out the new Green Climate Monster over at Australian Climate Madness
He’s cool
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Baa Humbug @ 76
We engineers are arrogant snobs Baa, going as far as to ask what would climatologists know about the climate? Are they actually university educated?
A masters from Cambridge. I’m impressed. More importantly it is engineers who will fix up the resources/energy problems keeping in mind we had about 1.6 billion humans about 100 years ago, about 6.8 billion now and will have about 9.9 billion by 2050. So sit back and relax warmists your well fed, comfortably populated, fossil/uranium fueled future and beyond is in competent hands.
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Jo,
I’d hate to bring this up but the title of this posting is wrong.
Away is a function of “cat”.
Play is a function of mice.
The correct expression is therefore more like:
Note that mice playing is a function not only of the cat being away, but other cat-related factors as well, represented by the sum of other, non-cat factors. Without detailed research however, one cannot however even be sure that any, some or all the factors even contribute as additive factors. They may be multiplicative or interactions of more a complex nature; exponential,logarithmic, …
😉
[well Bernd, the equation as it stands, is a reflection of post-modern “new” math. I’d like to blame my 9th grade maths teacher and also apply for preferential treatment as a math challenged moderator. The truth is, and you can just ask JO, that it is tough to find good help these days.] ED 🙂
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Cohenite @70 re: – “please find the AGW component”. Yes this seems another good example how raw data tells a different story to the adjusted data we all hear about in the MSM from the warmists. As I asked at #43 I’d like to know how the warmists explain the reasoning for adjustments to this raw data that subsequently results in the often rising temperature trends that get used to support the pro CAGW cause. Frank provided some insight to UHI at #32 but as a non Scientist I believe a future article on Adjustments to raw land based data and/or UHI would be beneficial to my and other non-scientists understanding of this issue.
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Found this on WUWT a few days ago:
ENGLAND: NOT WARMING
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/09/monckton-skewers-steketee/#comment-569586
tonyb says:
January 9, 2011 at 3:01 am
By a very happy coincidence, the annual mean average temperature of 1659, the very first
year of the oldest temperature dataset in the world -Central England Temperatures-is
exactly the same as for 2010 at 8.83C.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
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wes george:
January 19th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Thanks for the cool links, Bulldust.
“I remain agnostic about the so-called singularity and skeptical of all futurist proclamations (including my own.) ”
There is reason to doubt it: If the UN and its lackays manage to erect a global regime of statism, we might well end up with decades of global stagnation, using increasing productivity only to feed an ever higher proportion of parasites.
But i have hope that in such a scenario the singularity will happen in what will then be criminal circles.
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CSIRO: Queensland’s drought wasn’t “global warming”, nor these floods, either……….
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/csiro_queenslands_drought_wasnt_global_warming_nor_these_floods_either/
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What happens to temperature trend if we simulate a strong La Nina now:
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/status-on-global-temperature-trends-216.php?id=216
K.R. Frank
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This is a good one.
How we know they know they are lying
That a lie which is all a lie may be met and fought with outright,
But a lie which is part a truth is a harder matter to fight.
Tennyson – The Grandmother.
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/lying.htm
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Global COOLING is here.
http://thetruthpeddler.wordpress.com/2011/01/25/latest-data-confirms-a-global-cooling-trend/
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For anyone interested in researching the contents of the IPCC’s AR4, AccessIPCC is a very useful resource. Essentially, it is an “annotated” version of all 44 chapters of the Fourth Assessment report. We call it FAR_OUT (Fourth Assessment Report – Objectively, Uniformly Tagged)
Our annotations include a number of “tags” for each citation in the text, as well as the ability to instantly see the full reference when mousing-over the rather obscure citation reference in the text. In addition, we have some interesting stats on the responses to reviewer comments on the Second Order Draft and much, much, more!
It’s not finished yet (we hope to get the SPM, appendices and other relevant data included in the months ahead), and it certainly isn’t perfect. But as Donna Laframboise has noted, it is a “powerful research tool” … a “more user-friendly – and immeasurably richer – way of evaluating the IPCC’s Nobel-winning report”.
Try it, you’ll like it 🙂
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