Who knows what might have turned up…
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The message to the world is unequivocal: “We are heading for somewhere that is far off from anything we have seen in the past 10,000 years – it’s through the roof. In my mind, we are heading for a different planet to the one that we have been used to,” said Jeremy Shakun of Harvard University, a co-author of the study. Source: The-world-is-hottest-it-has-been-since-the-end-of-the-ice-age–and-the-temperatures-still-rising. There are two factors in the new Marcott paper that are major red flags. For one, there is hardly any data in the modern end of the graph. Ponder how researchers can find 5,000 year old Foraminifera deposits, but not ones from 1940? Two: they’ve smoothed the heck out of longer periods. Marcott et al clearly say there is “…essentially no variability preserved at periods shorter than 300 years…” So if there were, say, occurrences of a warming rise exactly like the last century, this graph won’t show them. Some of the data has a resolution as poor as “500 years” and the median is 120 years. If current temperatures were averaged over 120 years (that would be 1890 to now), the last alarming spike would blend right in with the other data. Where would the average […] March 16th, 2013 | Tags: Hockey Stick Graph, Holocene, JoNova's Favourites, Marcott, Paleohistory | Category: Geology, Global Warming, Holocene |  Print This Post | | FOIA has been in touch with skeptics today. Here is the email below, sorry, without that password. There are 220,000 emails in the file. There may be private information which could cause grief that is not related to taxpayer funded work. Obviously that large file is not in a form that can be released publicly yet. I do hope people are very very careful with the password. This is your chance to understand why FOIA did what they did, and your chance to say thanks to the person who quite possibly saved us from a bureaucratic coup in Copenhagen in 2009. The draft treaty promised to take up to $140 billion from some and redistribute it to others. As Christopher Monckton revealed, sovereign nations would be ceding powers to a group of foreign officials, but the document did not have the words “election” or “democracy” or “vote” or “ballot”. To all those who think, post hoc, that Copenhagen was never going to succeed anyway, I say that in November 2009, when I asked the carbon traders which outcome the money was betting on. The answer was: we don’t know. The players are out of this market. You can leave your […] I’m not keen on short term trends at all, they have a habit of flicking in and out of statistical significance with each month’s new data, or even switching from cooling to warming. But for what it’s worth, and only time will tell, perhaps the world entered the downswing of the PDO cycle in temperatures circa 2005. If the world was entering a gently cooling phase, this is what it would look like Syun Akasofu pointed out that there was a simple 60 year oscillation of global temperatures (about 30 years of warming, about 30 years of mild cooling) on top of a long slow rise that started more than 200 years ago. He predicted that we were at the top of one of the cycles, and were about to see the beginning of a cooler cycle. This early data suggests he may be right. See the little red dot with the green arrow at about the 2010 mark. Dr Syun Akasofu The cooling for the last eight years is statistically significant in 4 of the 5 major air temperature datasets. One, UAH, shows a small (statistically insignificant) rise since 2005. And here’s the political point: how many of […] March 13th, 2013 | Tags: GISS, Global Temperatures, Hadley, RSS, UAH | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | Oh the irony? Three years after the scandal that was ClimateGate, the University of East Anglia has a campus wide poster program to teach staff and students how to protect themselves from pfishing. (Thanks to reader pickabelief). Could this be a plan to protect the university from more embarrassing hacks and leaks too? (Given other standards at UEA*, we have to ask if this is the rapid-response-squad?) … *With apologies to good scientists and workers at UEA. You didn’t ask for this test, but if you want to protect your reputation, you need to speak up. You could start with explaining why you do things differently to the people who use tricks to hide declines, avoid FOIs, and consort to delete taxpayer funded email records. Some at UEA applaud work where random numbers produce the same “result” as a poor-censored-and-truncated-proxy does, and you might think, rightly, this is not science. But as long as sloppy, inept activist-scientists use the UEA brand to bolster their credibility, everyone who tacitly supports them gets tarred with the same brush. The hoax that matters is the one that billions of dollars depend upon ($257 billion are invested in renewables per annum and $176 […] March 11th, 2013 | Tags: ClimateGate, East Anglia CRU | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | I’ll be back at the desk later today… 🙂 8.7 out of 10 based on 20 ratings The animated Christopher Monckton
Apologies for the lack of posting, Christopher Monckton is staying with us, he’s in the kitchen right now, and we’ve had an event on, or radio interviews, or high level log-graph must-do calculations every day. It’s been marvelous, and as it happens, very productive (though not conducive to writing posts). Christopher was in absolutely fine form on Wednesday night in Perth, as he tackles the teetering health of Western Civilization. The crowd was filled with many new faces — people who missed Monckton on previous tours, and were delighted to finally get the chance to see him. There were “undecideds” bought in by skeptical friends, as well as some believers-of-man-made-global warming (good on them for turning up). What was also especially obvious at the Dalkeith-community-Hilton was the generous support of the Oil Moguls (not). We arrived half an hour ahead to find that there was no stand for the enormous projector screen. Dr David Evans sorted that out with great improvisation under pressure. (What he didn’t do was phone an emergency support contractor at great expense to turn up and save the day and send the bill to some Australian Government agency. )
[…] TIM FLANNERY, CHIEF CLIMATE COMMISSIONER 7-30 Report ABC: “…everything we’re seeing is consistent with what the climate scientists have been telling us now for decades…” Leigh Sales, ABC PRESENTER : “… … …(no comment)…” Steve Hunter Cartoonist: … Thanks to Steve Hunter (political cartoons). See also Andys rant. 😀 What are the odds? Tim Flannery makes out that they have used maths to arrive at their conclusion. Let’s be clear, if you have a 499 in 500 chance of winning at poker, that’s not the same as the odds of us being able to predict a normal climate, and be able to spot an “artificial” one. Yet Tim would like you to think that’s the same bet. 7:30 Report excerpts LEIGH SALES: How do you know that the new climatic conditions are responsible for the extreme whether events? How do you know that it’s just not some combination of meteorological circumstances? TIM FLANNERY: Sure. Look, the studies suggest it’s a 1/500 chance that this sorta stuff is just normal. This is way outside the range of anything we’ve experienced before. It is really an extraordinary summer…. What studies Tim? Name […] March 6th, 2013 | Tags: Flannery (Tim), Hunter (Steve) | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | There were not many long term sites (in black dots) in the centre of Australia in 1930. This summer the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) invented a whole new metric to measure average national heat, which might be all very well except no-one (other than the BOM) seems to know what it is. On January 7th the BOM claimed Australia set a new “average maximum daily temperature record”. Now the headlines are about the “hottest” Australian summer. With both records, no one outside the BOM team has access to the methods or data. This post is about the new “daily” temperature of Australia used to declare Jan 7th was a record, but the same point applies to the “hottest summer” records, even though they may be a different data set. Where is the data? Where are the methods? Is the BOM a science agency or a PR bureau? The January 7th heatwave supposedly broke all previous “daily” records in this category — a dubious honor since no-one can remember any records like it. It’s a bit like winning the Side-Jump. It’s not an event anyone knew was on until the medal ceremony. Worse, no one knows how the […] March 3rd, 2013 | Tags: Australian temperatures, BOM, Gillham (Chris), Heatwaves, Hughes (Warwick), Stewart (Ken) | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | For all the non-hottest-summer in Australia talk. … 7 out of 10 based on 16 ratings Despite the wild hype about records being broken, and how hot this summer has “felt” for most Australians there have been many hotter summers, and for millions of people this summer was not remarkable at all. The BOM is planting the unscientific suggestion it “felt warm” when thermometers in most major centres tell us it was just summer. The population of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne combined is almost 11 million. Nearly 50% of all Australians experienced an average to above average summer, but none of them experienced an extreme summer or a record hot season. Since there are 100 different ways of measuring a “record”, could it be the BOM is cherry picking whatever record it can find, but ignoring all the non-records, the average measurements, and the ordinary heat? Melbourne, hot but not extreme In Melbourne there have been nine hotter summers, and two of those were more than a century ago. Those summers weren’t just a bit hotter. It was nearly a whole degree hotter (as an average of maximum summer temperatures) in 1898 and 1951. In Melbourne this summer qualifies as the tenth hottest. It was far hotter in 1898, 1951, 1981, and 2001
Much […] March 2nd, 2013 | Tags: Australian temperatures, BOM | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | UPDATED: The Mann-Ball case is not settled yet. See below. Christopher Monckton is cutting across Australia and leaving a wake behind him. He’s called for one Doctor’s deregistration, and one university Prof to be investigated for fraud. Today the VC from Uni of Tasmania has agreed do an investigation and “rigorously“. It is already having an effect. Below, Monckton answers the critics and explains why legal action is “the deadliest weapon”. He is after all, the man who took on Gore and won. He took on the BBC and won too. The Lord knows exactly why he’s doing this. How many prophets of doom will sit up and pay attention and think twice the next time they do a media interview? — Jo PS: Don’t forget to see him in Perth next week, and Queensland the week after that. “I am not prepared to sit back and let the liars, cheats and fraudsters win.” Christopher Monckton
Why taking climate extremists to court works Christopher Monckton Christopher Monckton of Brenchley One or two commenters on the postings about “Dr.” Helen Caldicott on the unspeakable ABC and “Dr.” Tony dePress at the “University” of […] Not a good news week for wind power. First windpower probably doesn’t produce as much electricity as people though it could. If the new estimates are right, humanity would need to cover 3 million square kilometers of the Earth to get just 10% of our electricity from wind. (And how many storms will that prevent do you think?) Could the “cure” be worse than the condition? Second, it appears that wind turbines in the ocean might snap like matchsticks in particular conditions — conditions that are different for each turbine and at the moment, impossible to predict. The authors explain that it doesn’t have to be big waves or big storms — medium sized waves were the worst. Windpower’s theoretical maximum isn’t what we thought it might have been When we account for the wind shadows that large installations produce, at best, wind power may only give us 1 Watt per square meter (or 1 MW per square kilometer). According to this team our global energy needs are in the order of 30 terawatts, and one terawatt is one trillion (1012) watts. If that is the case, to to supply 10% of our global energy needs we’d have to cover… […] March 1st, 2013 | Tags: Renewable Energy, Wind Power | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | Coal power provides most of our electricity and despite widespread floods these plants have to keep working day in and day out to provide our baseload power. | This one above is the old decommissioned “New Farm” Coal Power Station (1942) | Queensland State Library Anton Lang cuts the numbers, and finds that while the Australian floods cut power consumption by 9% on the Eastern seaboard they only reduced CO2 emissions by 0.9%. Even if cutting CO2 emissions was useful, it’s much much harder than most people realize. Electricity use is so pervasive that even though whole towns were off-the-grid due to floods, and real consumption fell, it didn’t make any difference to emissions. That’s because the baseload consumption is still so high, and is mostly still a coal powered load. Reducing the peak use of electricity by a whopping 9% hardly makes any difference to the total daily curve of electricity demand. The electricity for the peak load comes from natural gas, a bit from hydro, and some from intermittent unpredictable renewables. Coal can’t be switched up and down quickly, and it isn’t efficient to do so, even if it were possible to ramp up or change the […] February 27th, 2013 | Tags: CO2 emissions, Coal, Lang (Anton), TonyfromOz | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | UPDATE: University VC Rathjen reponds. Press will be investigated. University Climate Researcher to be investigated for unprofessional conduct. Professor Peter Rathjen, Vice Chancellor of the University of Tasmania (UTAS) has ordered an investigation into professional and academic misconduct by Dr Tony Press, the CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre based at the University of Tasmania. Lord Monckton, who spoke to 150 scientists and members of the public at the UTAS last week, has complained, in an interview with the Sunday Tasmanian last week, Press had misrepresented both Climate Science and what Lord Monckton said in his talk. The investigation comes under the Australian Code for the Responsible Conduct of Research. Professor Rathjen’s letter to Lord Monckton says, “…the processes will be followed rigorously!” The Vice Chancellor added that the University strongly supported a culture of courteous, critical dialog on all matters of academic and public interest. —————————————————– Christopher Monckton has written to Professor Peter Rathjen, Vice-Chancellor, University of Tasmania to point out that one Tony Press has committed “serious professional and academic misconduct and scientific fraud, contrary to Australian Standard AS 8001 […] February 26th, 2013 | Tags: Monckton (Christopher), Universities | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | The ABC will declare that “most Australians don’t think the ABC is biased” but while half the nation thinks it’s balanced, 30% don’t know, and of the 20% who are sure there is bias, there are three times as many who think it’s pro-Labor as those who think it’s pro-Coalition. Bear in mind ABC1 only has about 10% of the Australian audience, so 90% of the nation prefers to watch something else. Did the survey ask respondents if they watch the ABC? We might find that of the 20% of the population who are familiar with ABC coverage, most think it’s biased to the left. With some probing questions, we might also find that people of different political persuasions define bias very differently. Could it be that those more likely to vote for the Coalition tend to value free speech even if they don’t agree with the views? On the other hand those more likely to vote Labor or Green seem to think balance means skeptics shouldn’t speak at all. Is their idea of bias just “if the ABC allows skeptics to comment”. The Centre for Independent Journalism had a whole forum devoted to asking whether “balance” meant they still […] February 26th, 2013 | Tags: ABC, Journalism, Science Communication | Category: Global Warming, Media-matters | Print This Post | | Helen Caldicott and the ABC have excelled themselves in the Art of Ad Hominem. So much so, that Christopher Monckton is not only writing to the ABC, but also to medical registration boards as well, calling for Caldicotts’s de-registration. On ABC Radio National (about 25% into the program). Reader Steve, writes that “Helen Caldicott declares that climate change sceptic Christopher Monckton has “got thyrotoxicosis and bilateral exophthalmos”. She gives the impression that such conditions should prevent Monckton from engaging in the public debate. Waleed Aly said nothing to stop Dr Caldicott’s ad hominem attack on Monckton’s alleged medical condition.” Is she not aware Monckton had Graves? Caldicott is a doctor and also the co-founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, “an organization of 23,000 doctors”. [See her Bio]. Perhaps she thinks it would be “socially responsible” to start a show where panels of doctors speculated on the medical conditions of celebrities they had never met? They could make fun of fat politicians and disabled sports stars? What fun. How about the laughs of picking on Stephen Hawking? Stephan Lewandowsky could be a regular guest, pronouncing that non-Labor-Green fans were paranoid conspiracy […] February 23rd, 2013 | Tags: ABC, Monckton (Christopher) | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | … There’s a PR war going on Pachauri is chief PR officer for the Global-not-so-Warming-Gravy-Train. His job is to say things with a straight face that are the complete opposite of what he’s said before, and to pretend he has never said anything differently. The IPCC are a government committee who’ve stamped the brand name “science” to their policy wish list. They got away with it by using ancient tribal rhetorical techniques. Call your opponent names, spit on their reputation, spread nasty rumors, and tell the useful idiots who follow you that they are smart, caring, and superior — even as you teach them to chant “denier” in response to the dog-whistle. The good thing about having Idiot followers is that can believe at the same time that “denier” is a scientific term and that they have a high IQ. It is also handy if you give out plum government jobs and consultancies, to keep your supporters ardent. The power of patronage, what ho! But the game is changing, skeptics have scored too many points. Thus and verily skeptics have been hitting home runs by shining a light on the religious attitude of the IPCC which keeps declaring unscientifically […] February 23rd, 2013 | Tags: IPCC, JoNova's Favourites, Pachauri (Rajendra) | Category: Global Warming | Print This Post | | A video that ought to be shown to all students in every school. A concept that I don’t remember being mentioned during my education. I like his clean uncluttered style, the snappy irreverent wit. … Thanks Topher, and thanks to all the people who supported him to make this possible (like The Australian Taxpayers Alliance). Note the first ever First Australian Libertarian Conference will be held in Sydney on April 6 and 7. Now that would be fun. Send this video around 🙂 9.4 out of 10 based on 103 ratings February 21st, 2013 | Tags: Tax, Topher | Category: Big-Government, Economics, Global Warming, Politics | Print This Post | | With Wayne Swan, Treasurer of Australia, being man of the moment this week, it’s the perfect time to revisit a comment left by Jaymez where he compares the nation to a household and adds up just how fast the House of Australia went broke. — Jo Lesson One: Sending the House of Australia Broke (Quick Method). A comment by Jaymez December 15, 2012 at 5:32 pm Imagine this. In the 2006/7 financial year you were on a salary of $118,500 pa. Your total living expenses, all payments and taxes, and even allowing for some retirement savings was $109,500, so you had a decent buffer. You also owned every asset you had with no debts and in fact you had cash in the bank of about $15,000. Now imagine that since then, you had pay increases up to the end of last financial year (30 June 2011) totalling 39.2% so that your current income is a very healthy $165,000 pa. Can you imagine that you would allow your expenses to creep up to $185,500 pa, that¡¯s 69.4% more than your 2006/7 expenditure? Can you imagine that this higher level of expenditure doesn¡¯t even include putting any money away for your retirement […] |
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