Global Warming « JoNova

Climate change and bushfires — More rain, the same droughts, no trend, no science

Here’s the anti-witchdoctor kit for bushfires and “climate change”

Hi to all the new readers. Keep these graphs handy…

To Recap: In order to make really Bad Fires we need the big three: Fuel, oxygen, spark. Obviously getting rid of air and lightning is beyond the budget. The only one we can control is fuel. No fuel = no fire. Big fuel = Fireball apocalypse that we can;t stop even with help from Canada, California, and New Zealand.

The most important weather factor is rain, not an extra 1 degree of warmth. To turn the nation into a proper fireball, we “need” a good drought. A lack of rain is a triple whammy — it dries out the ground and the fuel — and it makes the weather hotter too. Dry years are hot years in Australia, wet years are cool years. It’s just evaporative cooling for the whole country. The sun has to dry out the soil before it can heat up the air above it. Simple yes? El Nino’s mean less rain (in Australia), that’s why they also mean “hot weather”.

So ask a climate scientist the right questions and you’ll find out what […]

2019 Wildfires burn 20 times as much land as managed fuel reduction in NSW (so far)

The conversation Australia needs: should we prevent fires with prescribed burns or solar panels?

The wildfires in NSW so far have burned 2,700,000 ha or, if it were one square area –a box 164km x 164km and destroyed at least 720 houses (that was Dec 11).

The dilemma: will it be managed fires, or unmanaged wildfires to reduce the fuel? Or if you are Tim Flannery who says it’s “immoral not to connect the dots“, the question is “how many solar panels will it take to stop those houses burning down?” Or perhaps “how do we stop lightning”?

This is the rough size of the controlled hazard reduction target area, as carried out for NSW compared to the area of “hazard-reduction” by Mother Nature. The area of official hazard reduction by the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) is 135,000 ha, equivalent to a square of dimensions 36km x 36km. There would be some other private fuel reduction. Can anyone find figures for that?

Australian Wildfires Area, 2019, NSW, December. Map.

To protect houses we need a 100m margin (at least) and to burn 20% of the landscape each year.

New South Wales NPWS fire ecologist, […]

ABC, Climate experts do damage control on 1896 heatwave story, can’t say why, but they “know” it was cooler. Faith!

Winning! The 1896 heatwave story is going viral and the ABC is reduced to weak, late excuses

Australians are realizing that our hot history has been hidden from us. We’ve set a new site traffic record with around 100,000 people checking in since Wednesday, plus thousands more reading the story elsewhere like Catallaxy and Facebook. Thank you for sharing! We first posted the 1896 heatwave here first in 2013, then again on Wednesday. The ABC has gone into damage control responding with a direct attempt to rebut the story, but they are too scared to name this site. What are they afraid of?

We, of course, have no such fear. Six years after skeptics let Australia know about the 1896 heatwave, the ABC and “experts” finally catch up but only under duress. So now they mention it, but use vague caveats, distractors, discuss different time spans, ignore 49 other hot sites, appeal to authority, and don’t mention their own recent artificial site changes that skeptics have documented in more detail than the BOM have. The “experts” allude to “thermometers on beer crates” but in Bourke the heat was recorded at the post office on Oxley st. Skeptics are well aware […]

This blogger could really use some help

NEW POSTS WILL APPEAR UNDER THIS ONE If you can help me, I can say more the things that need to be said in the battle with the freeloaders

The war on science continues, and the bank account needs your help. It’s ammunition to keep exposing corruption, incompetence, hysteria and history. Thanks for you support via Paypal and Not-paypal. I can’t do this without you…

We battle against the self-interest of “Green energy investment” which is around $400 billion a year. The Big Bankers too, still want their cut of a $7 trillion global carbon market — perhaps they want to save the world, or maybe they need a new yacht? But Big-Government don’t seem keen to give grants to writers who want to stop Big-Government abusing science. And fossil fuels — they not only don’t fund me, the largest gas and oil producer in Australia wouldn’t even let me speak at a Christmas dinner for geologists. Such is the toxic spell being cast. Woodside dropped like a bomb on a volunteer run committee.

The self-serving are gaslighting the gullible.

9.1 out of 10 based on 104 ratings […]

They mix one-sided climate hype and six year olds. What did they think would happen?

They declare a climate emergency and use children as political weapons and wonder why children are distressed?

ABC needs to run advice columns now dealing with the aftermath of watching the ABC:

How to talk to children about climate change

ABC Radio National By Sarah Scopelianos

It’s bad:

… one protest, against the Adani coal mine, sparked a “tough moment” for her son, who was around six at the time. He became “absolutely devastated” about global warming and damage to the Great Barrier Reef. “He cried, and he was so distressed, and I was quite taken aback just how strong his feelings were,” Ms Roberts [his mother] says.

Expert psych says give them both sides of the story… no wait, she says turn them into mini activists:

Environmental psychologist and therapist Dr Susie Burke co-wrote the Australian Psychological Society guidelines on talking to children about climate change.

Dr Burke advocates for parents to support their children, which could include helping their child write or send their letters to a local politician, or to heroes of the environmental movement.

“It’s helping children to shift their anxiety from just focusing […]

Hottest ever day in Australia — especially if you ignore history – Eg. 1896

Tuesday was Australia’s hottest day on record sayth the Bureau of Meteorology.

And perhaps it was. But look at the temperatures reported in newspapers across the country during the month of January in 1896 when people were going mad with axes, dropping dead in coaches and railway stations and birds were falling lifeless from the trees? Emergency trains were ferrying people from the country to the mountains. Panic stricken people fled the outback on special trains and the death toll was in the hundreds.

Fifty years later scientists would publish papers talking about how Australian summers had cooled since then.

How does the BOM know for sure that it was not hotter on any one of these days? Perhaps they don’t. Wouldn’t it be more honest of the BOM to mention that? It’s not like billions of dollars depends upon it…

Seems the only time the ABC or BOM suddenly discover our historic weather records is when we get unseasonal snow or freezing cold.

See below for the links to the newspaper stories for all of these temperatures (Click to enlarge the map)

Photo: Jo Nova

The heatwave started in the West on Jan 1st and travelled […]

Mega-blazes run riot and witchdoctors rage against them in Australia

The big decision Australia faces — We could try to stop all arsonists, lightning, wind, droughts and cool the entire world, or we could reduce the fuel. Which will it be?

In Australia, the situation is comi-tragic. As potential record-breaking heatwave heads eastwards across the country our fire-fighters are reduced to emergency backburning— an act of sheer desperation on the verge of panic in these conditions. The fires they light in the hope of stopping firestorms are causing firestorms — with flames 70 meters high — even burning down one of the RFS captains homes. This is fuel reduction six months too late. One twelve year old drove a car to escape a fire. 2,000 firefighters are battling 108 blazes. A coal mine and a power station are in the path in NSW. The Mount Piper Power Station generates about 10 per cent of NSW’s electricity and is 3km from a fire front. At the coal mine unprocessed coal lies on the surface. How much fun can you have?

Temperatures of 44C (111f) and 46C (114f) are forecast for the outskirts of Sydney on Friday and Saturday.

Fire has already consumed almost three million hectares of land across NSW this […]

Guardian prophets six weeks ago: “Climate crisis affects how majority will vote in UK election – poll”

Polls are like climate models. You can get any answer you want, but not the one you need.

An immortal headline from Oct 30:

The Guardian declares: Climate crisis affects how majority will vote in UK election – poll

Survey also finds two-thirds of people agree climate is biggest issue facing humankind

Damian Carrington Environment editor, @dpcarrington

A majority of people in the UK say the climate crisis will influence how they vote in the looming general election, according to an opinion poll, with younger voters feeling particularly strongly about the issue.

…

And of course the greatest landslide in 30 years wasn’t won by the party aligned with teenage girls who promised better weather.

Six weeks before the UK election and the poll served no purpose other than to fool some politicians and the journalists that write about them. The biggest issue facing mankind either got solved before December 12, or perhaps no one gave a toss, they just said what the pollster wanted them to say.

Or how about the July 2019 poll:

Climate more pressing long-term issue than Brexit, say 71% of Britons

Bigger than Brexit? Jeremy ought to have that election wrapped up….

[…]

Forget cost and gigawatts — lets solve climate by turning toxic white men into soy boys

Stupid engineers think we need climate models that work and electricity that costs less than a dollar a kilowatt hour. All along we’ve been worried about FCAS, moist adiabatic lapse rates, voltage surges, and frequency drops, while the answer was staring us in the face.

The cheapest way to change the global climate is to call men petty names, bully them into submission and kick their truck nuts.

Here’s “genius” Megan MacKenzie: Professor of Gender and War at the University of Sydney showing us how little she knows about climate, men or war.

Is fragile masculinity the biggest obstacle to climate action?

Megan MacKenzie, ABC

Leaving fossil fuels in the ground symbolises a loss of power and money. Some male leaders see real climate action as a threat to power and to profit, through extraction and exploitation of the environment.

Male resistance to climate action has bipartisan support. Any hope that the Labor party might offer climate policy alternatives the Liberals went up in smoke in the past few months as Anthony Albanese announced he doesn’t want to phase out coal.

Researchers in Norway also found what they call a “cool dude […]

Stop the press: Solar panels could stop Earthquakes

Experts predict a warmer world will be “geologically turbulent”. Join the dots, get a solar panel, and stop the world cracking up ok?

Below one national news outlet speculates about the effects storms, melting ice and floods have on crustal plates, and fault lines. It’s possible, unknown, or at least not-entirely-ruled-out that man-made CO2 could maybe theoretically lead to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. The story contains stacked “ifs”, “buts”, “coulds” and caveats, plus some links that are not-statistically-significant and several “unknowns”.

This is essentially one-sided scientific rumour mongering. Quick let’s transform our economy.

h/t Andrew V

This is what our future looks like if climate change goes unchecked

Jamie Seidel

… experts predict a warmer and more geologically turbulent future for the planet.

The US Geological Survey has discovered there is one link between weather and earthquake.

Just one link?

Major storms, such as cyclones and hurricanes, can produce substantial changes in atmospheric pressure. This sometimes triggers a ‘slow earthquake’ – a slow but steady movement that does not create any noticeable jolt.

“They note that while such large low-pressure changes could potentially be a contributor to […]

NSW is “kindling to go”: Accumulated fuel is an environmental time-bomb

Photos just in from Bill Johnston in NSW show why Sydney is shrouded in smoke and why so much is still at risk this summer.

The sign marks the fire trail — which is lucky, otherwise no one would know it was there.

Spot the sign in the photo below. Spot the fire-trail.

How many fires would this stop? About as many as a solar panel.

Fire trail or fire trap? | Photo Bill Johnston

This is NSW fire preparation in 2019. ..

This is what a different fire trail looks like (one that works):

Fire meets fire trail, stops. | Photo: Bill Johnston

This break was small but still stopped a manageable fire. Only the ocean will stop a firestorm.

As as Bill says — rainfall lowers the temperature, and drought raises it. Wet soils are hard to heat. Wet woodlands are slower to burn. If there is fuel to burn, a lack-of-rain causes a high fire risk, and everyone knows climate models can’t predict rain on any short term or regional basis. The only thing we know for sure is that a warmer world is a wetter one. Thus and verily 1 + 1 = […]

It’s a landslide: Brits elect guy who serves Britain

Great news for Australia. Brilliant for the UK. The Brits have chucked out EU climate bunnies.

No one can deny the British want out. All the stupid parliamentary games, the attention-seeking mass rallies, and the fake concern about “threats to democracy” got knocked on the head. Finally the country will be able to follow the wishes of voters instead of the wishes of a few career pollies. In great part thanks to Nigel Farage.

Exit poll: Conservative 368, Labour 191, Liberal Democrats 13, SNP 55

If the exit poll results ring true, it will be the biggest Conservative general election win since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 triumph — and Labour’s worst result since 1935.

“Certainly this exit poll is a devastating blow,” said Labour trade spokesman Barry Gardiner. “It’s a deeply depressing result.”

–ABC News

The bloodbath in the UK marks the seismic realignment of the two major parties, with Labor losing working class seats that it has held for years, and the conservatives losing city seats that once were their strongholds. It seems the Labor alignment with the smarty-pants soy-latte set, foreign bureaucrats and immigrants instead of workers is fashionable but not […]

1970s Spock documentary — Climate scientists believe the next ice age may have already started

Watch Spock in the 1970s describing how climate scientists were predicting a mile high wall of ice that could cover Canada down to Boston “in your lifetime”, and it may already have started. Commenter Bulldust found Gary Orsum’s droll commentary on that documentary. Great stuff.

Best part begins from 5:45 mins on:

In 1977 the worst winter in a century struck the United States… one desperate night in Buffalo, eight people froze to death…

the brutal Buffalo winter might become common all over the United States. Climate experts believe the next ice age is on its way.

Temperatures have been dropping for thirty years…

With 40 years headstart on climate scares, Orsum has all the answers.

Leonard Nimoy: Arctic cold and perpetual snow could turn most of the inhabitable portions of our planet into an Arctic wasteland.

Sure says Orsum, but there are ways to allieviate that threat even with your primitive caveman technology, just get the kids to take Fridays off school.

The opening five minutes explaining how he’s not a denier though he keeps being called one. Readers here have lived that landscape already. Just say “lukewarmer” and […]

Time Magazine wins Woke Joke of the Year Award

Some teenagers risk ten years in a Chinese jail. While another risks school detention as the chosen puppet of Big Government and Big Money.

Guess which one Time Magazine thinks is more worthy?

Time leaves out the Hong Kong Protesters fighting for their lives and freedoms to push a teen being used as a marketing gimmick.

How dare you? https://t.co/dnV9mESM6G

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) December 11, 2019

UPDATE: Giovanni Cavalcanti @giovannicavett · Just a little history of who was once considered “Person Of The Year” according to TIME magazine: 1938 -Hitler 1939 -Stálin 1942 -Stálin 1979 -Khomeini 2007 -Putin #TIMEPersonoftheYear2019 9.4 out of 10 based on 75 ratings

British election: Here’s hoping democracy wins

UPDATE: Poll results will be announced after 10pm GMT in the UK. That’s 9AM Daylight savings time Sydney Australia.

Thoughts are with you Freemen of the United Kingdom for a very important election.

Boris is just brilliant in this Ad. He carries off the parody of the carol singers in “Love Actually” without looking smug or self conscious.

…

The Australian-ABC Groupthink Predictor points at a conservative win — since ABC NEWS has barely mentioned the UK election during the whole campaign, obviously it’s not looking good for the leading socialists. If Corbyn was in the lead we’d hear about it every night and see him with adoring crowds. If Corbyn was winning, it would be called a Climate Election, and a Brexit election.

But Groupthink can be wrong. To all skeptics and Brexiteers in the UK, please get out and vote. Don’t take anything for granted. Conservatives don’t just need a win, they need a workable government.

Will the nation that invented freedom manage to escape the clutches of the EU?

PS: Best of luck to the excellent Roger “Tallbloke” running in Oxford East. See his comment in #1.3

h/t David

9.8 out of 10 based on […]

Exxon wins trial: “Exxon knew” proves to be junk claim

“Exxon knew” is now legally proven to be the vacuous empty dogwhistle it always was — a cheap stunt to whip up jealously and anger in gullible minds.

Exxon wins first-of-its-kind climate change case against New York

December 10, 2019, Josh Seigel, Washington Examiner

ExxonMobil won a first-of-its-kind climate change fraud trial on Tuesday as a judge rejected the state of New York’s claim that the oil and gas giant misled investors in accounting for the financial risks of global warming.

New York Supreme Court Justice Barry Ostrager said the state failed to prove that Exxon violated the Martin Act, a broad state law that does not require proof of intent of shareholder fraud.

“The office of the Attorney General failed to prove, by a preponderance of the evidence, that ExxonMobil made any material misstatements or omissions about its practices and procedures that misled any reasonable investor,” Ostrager wrote in a 55-page ruling, deciding the case without a jury.

The Democrats in NY spent three years working on this before filing the suit, but apparently didn’t realize they were barking at clouds the whole time?

New York Assistant Attorney General […]

Pushing back the Deep State? US Supreme Court may be able to stop politicians fobbing off big decisions to the EPA

The Deep State gets around congress and voters but we all know it isn’t supposed to be that way

…

The voters may not like the decisions, but they can’t vote out the bureaucrats. Think of the EPA, the FDA, and of course, the central bankers. Think of the Clean Air Act!

Some of these agencies effectively make the guidelines that we-the-people have to live by, then they enforce them, and adjudicate them too. They become defacto Kingmakers in their own fiefdoms. They are the fourth branch of government, also known as The Deep State.

But what feels wrong, may indeed be wrong, and it’s possible the Obama era Clean Power Plan could be repealed if it is deemed to breach the NonDelegation Doctrine, and there is renewed interest in this now that Brett Kavanaugh is in the Supreme Court. (No wonder some tried so hard to get him out).

The nondelegation doctrine is centuries old, and implicit in not just the US but all written constitutions that impose a separation of power. Here’s the wikipedia entry:

The origins of the nondelegation doctrine, as interpreted in U.S., can be traced back to, at least, 1690, when John […]

Skeptics win on fires: ABC quietly flips — suddenly it’s fire management not climate change to blame

This is how the paradigm changes. The old activism is quietly dropped down the memory hole…

Buried in a save-the-koala story on ABC News tonight is an ABC journalist saying for the first time that it is “current fire management practices” that are the problem. Rani Hayman didn’t say fuel load, but she might as well have. The reference to “indigenous fire practices” makes it obvious that the ABC means more hazard reduction burns (not that they can say so). She also didn’t say “climate change” — write it in your diary. On November 14th, the same ABC journalist was only interviewing the posterboys who blamed “climate change” for the fires.

UPDATE: Holy smoke — the Sydney Morning Herald also appear to have flipped hours earlier in the morning and in a much stronger and more direct way. Regular SMH reader Dave B sends in the link and says “wow… here’s a huge surprise”. Finally a spot of real journalism. Was this story the last nail in the ABC fuel-load denial?

Prescribed burning ‘key to controlling fires’.

By Tim Barlass, Sydney Morning Herald

Expert says blazes have burnt where hazard-reduction took place two years ago. […]

Excuses? Coldest Summer day, Snow in Australia and suddenly BOM remembers how inadequate their equipment is…

Snow in December: Has Australia installed too many solar panels?

Climate Change brings summer snow to Australia

Coldest maximum summer temperature on record at Thredbo

Kate Doyle, ABC News

On Monday, the second day of summer, the temperature only reached -1 degrees Celsius at the Thredbo weather station, the coldest maximum temperature recorded anywhere in Australia during summer.

But really cold records don’t matter. For the first time in history, Blair Trewin, Bureau of Meteorology points out how minor these daily records are:

Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, confirmed that it was a summer as well as December record but pointed out there was more to it.

“In some ways it’s not quite as impressive as it looks,” Dr Trewin said.

This is indeed the only instance of him ever saying that.

“This is because before automatic weather stations were installed in the 1990s, manual observations at high mountain sites [like the top of Thredbo, Mount Hotham and Falls Creek] were very limited outside the ski season.”

Exactly. When will Blair Trewin tell Australians that hot records are not as impressive as they look because […]

JoNova

Recent Posts

Climate change and bushfires — More rain, the same droughts, no trend, no science

2019 Wildfires burn 20 times as much land as managed fuel reduction in NSW (so far)

ABC, Climate experts do damage control on 1896 heatwave story, can’t say why, but they “know” it was cooler. Faith!

This blogger could really use some help

They mix one-sided climate hype and six year olds. What did they think would happen?

Hottest ever day in Australia — especially if you ignore history – Eg. 1896

Mega-blazes run riot and witchdoctors rage against them in Australia

Guardian prophets six weeks ago: “Climate crisis affects how majority will vote in UK election – poll”

Forget cost and gigawatts — lets solve climate by turning toxic white men into soy boys

Stop the press: Solar panels could stop Earthquakes

NSW is “kindling to go”: Accumulated fuel is an environmental time-bomb

It’s a landslide: Brits elect guy who serves Britain

1970s Spock documentary — Climate scientists believe the next ice age may have already started

Time Magazine wins Woke Joke of the Year Award

British election: Here’s hoping democracy wins

Exxon wins trial: “Exxon knew” proves to be junk claim

Pushing back the Deep State? US Supreme Court may be able to stop politicians fobbing off big decisions to the EPA

Skeptics win on fires: ABC quietly flips — suddenly it’s fire management not climate change to blame

Excuses? Coldest Summer day, Snow in Australia and suddenly BOM remembers how inadequate their equipment is…

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