Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay
By Jo Nova
Engineers were warning the grid was close to crashing due to excess solar
The mass blackouts in Spain and Portugal wrecked havoc on April 28 last year. At the time everyone accountable was feigning confusion, blaming it on a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” which might have set up mysterious oscillations in the line. They were bandying around terms like “ ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ and talking about extreme temperatures (you know, like 23 degrees C). But all along, the head honchos at Red Electrica knew it was due to an excess of solar power and a lack of reliable generation, because the technical staff had told them what was coming:
“Today was really bad, you all saw it”: new audio recordings confirm that Red Eléctrica knew three months before the blackout that the system was failing
By Paula Maria, Elmundo
The Senate committee investigating the blackout heard a second round of conversations this week between private electricity companies and Red Eléctrica, the system operator. Almost a year after the incident, and with no one yet taking responsibility, the latest recordings demonstrate that as early as January 2025, three months before the total blackout, the company chaired by Beatriz Corredor knew that the entire Spanish electricity system was at its limit. They also show that its technicians foresaw an imminent risk— “at some point , we’re going to crash,” they even predicted—and that they had identified the source of the voltage fluctuations: an excess of solar photovoltaic power and a lack of nuclear and gas generation. Once again, the recordings of the incident put the spotlight on the management of the company controlled by SEPI (the Spanish State Holding Company) and call into question the narrative of its leadership.
On January 31st, there was such a bad power surge that staff at the Asco nuclear power plant warned, “if the units trip, we’ll be left with zero power .” They went on to say that “Solar power isn’t like wind power, which has inertia. With solar, someone comes along and pushes a button, and if they don’t scale it up a bit, they’ll cause problems, and that’s what happens.”
Prophetically, on the morning of the blackout, staff knew exactly what they needed, telling the state’s operator’s control center: “We need more large-scale, thermal generation capacity, which is what regulates the situation.”
For a laugh, lets remember those glorious excuses:
What caused it?
The Guardian April 2025
The Portuguese prime minister, Luís Montenegro, said that the issue originated in Spain. Portugal’s REN said a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” had caused a severe imbalance in temperatures that led to the widespread shutdowns.
REN said: “Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior or Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as ‘induced atmospheric vibration’. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.”
Not only did the Spanish staff lie to the voters, but most of the media in the West covered up their lies, didn’t ask hard questions, and let them get away with it.
The reports are coming out now, but no one who was accountable has been held to account. (Not yet). Will it ever happen?
h/t Steve Hicks, @NetZeroWatch
Mysterious line oscillations,
And rare atmospheric vibrations,
Showing power failure signs,
In the high voltage lines,
Caused blackouts in the Iberian nations.
–Ruairi
UPDATE from commenter Paulie: The final 472 page report — “Don’t mention the Solar Excess”
The Final Report into the Spanish blackout was released on 21 March 2026:
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2026/03/20march-finalreport-iberianblackout/
For those who don’t have the time to read it all, it is a 472 page apology for not being able to identify a clear causal sequence leading up to the blackout. Lots of excuses, including insufficient instrumentation on their lower voltage transmission network, and operators not being able to provide documentation on the behaviour of specific generators.
Specifically, the report takes great pains not to identify the generators or specific equipment that were the source of the voltage instability that caused the blackout. But Figure 1-2 on page 10 shows that, on the day of the blackout, that voltage instability started at about 10:30am local time.
Figure 1-6 shows how voltage instability resulted in a rapid rise in grid voltage to well outside the normal operating band (max 420kV) within the final minute before the blackout. Again, while this figure identifies some critical events, the report fails to address why the grid operators were unable to deal with this rapid voltage increase.
The investigators were able to do one very useful thing: they built a model of the Spanish grid and were able to accurately replicate the behaviours seen on the day. But it takes them until page 311 to produce a result that clearly shows the source of the problems on their grid.
Figures 4-114 and 4-115 show the behaviour of grid voltage and frequency, had the grid had eight new synchronous condensers operating. The preceding text provides no technical information on the capacity of those syncons, but the results from their simulation are self-evident. They show that complete failure would not have occurred had the syncons been operational.
Had the Spanish grid maintained sufficient synchronous generation, from coal, nuclear, gas or hydro, the blackout would not have occurred.
So the authors of the report never say the obvious! The Spanish grid failed because it had too much inverter based energy, and not enough synchronous energy. When instability events happened, the lack of sufficient system strength and inertia caused the grid voltage to increase uncontrollably, tripping numerous automatic safety systems, that led to the blackout event.
But you won’t find any such straightforward explanation in the report’s Root Cause Tree 14 factors on pages 333/334.
“REN said: “Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior or Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as ‘induced atmospheric vibration’. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.”
What a load of BS, it’s like saying there was a glitch in the Proton Nebulizer.
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As it was known that failure was imminent and people died who is going to be charged with murder?
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“Round up the usual suspects!”
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Most now retired and enjoying the pension and wealth created personally
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How vicious are Spanish politicians?
Probably quite as nasty as those anywhere else – if it avoids responsibility.
I assume the whole green disaster came from pollies listening to Greta et. al.
If it’s anything like the UK, no responsibility will be taken … ever … unless forced out by a court of law.
Auto
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It was the Turboencabulator. It was able to supply the inverse reactive current for use in unilateral phase detractors, but failed to automatically synchronizing cardinal grammeters.
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I thought so !
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You can find a SAS fall guy faster than the Spanish Zoro!
No witnesses for the SAS, too many for Zoro.
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It really Hertz if you can’t keep up with 50 Hertz.
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Australia is somewhat protected from large scale grid failure like Spain because the programmed deindustrialisation has liberated a lot of power so the few remaining coal power stations can do their job, plus what little industry we have left, such as heavily subsidised* aluminium smelting, is paid additional taxpayer subsidies for the ability to shed their load on demand, as Jo has previously reported here.
Plus there is a lot of domestic rooftop solar.
Tomago smelter can shed 600MW to help keep the lights on**.
In addition, Australia has a lot of diesel generators to help keep the lights on. ***
Incidentally, Tomago employs 1000 full time equivalent people. It’s paid a subsidy of $300-$470 million per year. That’s a taxpayer subsidy of no less than $300,000 per job. What’s the point? It would be cheaper to keep them on the dole (welfare) with a view to them finding proper jobs like baristas which seems to be one of Australia’s growth industries, apart from large scale subsidy harvesting and rackets on large Government construction projects.
All of the above shows why politicians like Chrissie Bowen, Australia’s Anti-energy Minister, shouldn’t be allowed to make engineering decisions.
==
References.
==
* e.g. Tomago is paid a taxpayer subsidy of $300-$470 million per year. https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/the-300m-power-play-inside-the-plan-to-save-tomago-20260220-p5o41k https://m.mysteel.net/news/5116784-australia-weighs-470-mln-subsidy-backed-power-deal-to-keep-tomago-smelter-operational
** https://www.tomago.com.au/tomago-keeps-the-lights-on-across-the-state/
*** E.g. https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/south-australia-diesel-generators/
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When SA came very close near midnight on January 26. A hot day and night, quite humid (for SA) and all the batteries (including the Big Battery) were flat.
The State survived by buying electricity from diesel (and some imports from Vic)
For some reason this never made the main media or even the ABC. Possibly because the Labor Party was facing re-election shortly afterwards.
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The lone red thumb reveals how accurate your comment is.
The red thumb is not irritated at the closeness of disaster, but rather that the non-reporting of the incident by the MSM is noted.
The strongest factor that the activists have is covert support from the MSM. I hope that the Ch7 reporter who split Bowen apart this week survives, but I expect he will shortly find himself reporting on the annual horse race out at Wilcannia.
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Liam Bartlett is an experienced, seasoned news reporter, has been around for a long time. I doubt that he would be lost from his job.
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“For some reason this never made the main media or even the ABC.”
Here you go G#3
The Monday in question was Jan 26
On the World today Jan 27 though you have to listen to it but this is a grab
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The accusation was main media ABC not reporting “SA came very close near midnight on January 2” when “all the batteries (including the Big Battery) were flat. The State survived by buying electricity from diesel (and some imports from Vic)”
Neither of the links you provided reported the grid stability battery (“Big Battery”) was flat or that diesel was a component of keeping things going in SA.
Yes, they mention household batteries were flat and there was a mention of SA importing from Vic. But neither of those referenced that SA was in danger of grid instability, particularly with the flat or little reserve in the big battery. House batteries are largely irrelevant in that and not scarey to report.
In fact, the radio link (covered from 5min to 9min 30 sec in that program) had a guest on talking about the misinformation of the fossil fuel industries and renewables are great. The story completely ignored the vulnerability of the grid that night.
The main takeaway from the online article was also how wonderful renewables are. It did say interventions were needed in Vic & NSW but did not mention SA’s vulnerability. Just SA high demand and high spot price.
If you have no other links then the ones you provided have proven G3’s point.
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Sorry Strop but, apart from not addressing something you inserted, the ABC reported directly on the thing G3 asserted that they didn’t.
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Gee Aye, just because the ABC mentioned something on one specialist radio program with an audience of 100 is not the same as making it headline news on the ABC SA State nightly news at 7pm. Isn’t the near failure of the State grid more important than the lesbian book club/ indigenous dance ceremony/repeat of some catholic priest sex crime x 25 ?
Priorities Gee Aye.
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Certainly I didn’t see it on the ABC either. But then again,I haven’t watched or listened to the ABC for about 15 years now.
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I didn’t insert anything. I have quoted G3. (apart from where my copy and paste erroneously didn’t include the 6 in 26) The ABC did not address the “Big Battery” being flat or SA’s vulnerability. The key point G3 was making.
Show me what I inserted that G3 did not write.
You’re wrong and the links you provide do not dispel the point that G3 was making. SA was critically vulnerable that night, mainly due to the big battery lacking the reserve and the ABC did not address that. In fact, they washed over it to the extent they were making renewables out to be the hero in that audio link.
I have accurately represented what G3 wrote and accurately represented what of G3’s comment the ABC did and didn’t mention.
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Thank goodness fig leaf scans the ABC so the rest of us don’t have to.
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We can always rely on leaf to find the unfindable.
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That “ability to shed their load on demand” is all about manual intervention: AEMO sending out notices to specific users to reduce their consumption of electricity. Similarly, when demand starts to exceed AEMO’s forecasts, AEMO sends out notices for generators to provide addition generation capacity.
The amount of manual interventions is actually an indication of a system under strain. Why? Because manual intervention is inherently slow. It is not responsive at the speeds needed to maintain grid stability. And as the report on the Spanish blackout shows, some of the manual interventions actually contributed to decreasing grid stability.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqJvhlo6ns0
The US plan is to take down Kharg Island.
This means Australia is now in trouble for the future supply of diesel as we use ME oil (C15-C18) to get others to make it.
Our country is now in imminent peril.
Every alarm bell needs to start ringing.
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This is why our PM is in Singapore.
He needs to go to the White House and ensure our supply of diesel.
He can’t because that would mean a live Trump comment about Australia.
Our PM cares more about seeming than saving our nation.
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Singapore only supplies <20% of our diesel with the majority coming from S Korea.
And Dont expect too much help from the USA, we are not in their good books at the moment, and anyway, the US has to import much of its light crude needed for diesel anyway!
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Actually, the US can process either light sweet from shale oil or Venezuelan style heavy crude.
10
Sounds like importing to me ?
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If Tomago sheds their electrical load, in other words shuts down its processes, all the aluminium being processed at the time goes solid instead of molten and the entire production batch is wasted and has to be resmelted, as well as the pots cleaned out.
That’s what the subsidies are paying for, wasting production.
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That can happen if they have no notice of an impending power cut.
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Best to check the heavily subsidised private businesses supported by Labor with taxpayer’s monies, they are union workshops and Labor in Union Movement controlled.
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I loved watching Blackout B squirming when he copped a grilling from the media who finally recognized and admitted to the fraud – BB is a weasel who is getting what he deserves.
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no name man:
Weasels have some ability and use. BB doesn’t have either.
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So true – but he would go down well in a sewer as slime
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BOB will never get what he deserves as we are no longer able to tar and feather anyone before running them out of town, never to hold another tax-payer funded role again
The UN might welcome him home to continue their economy-ruining agenda.
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Tar and Feathering what a great dream.
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What is the problem with the pesky journalists asking difficult questions, he holds media conferences and meetings regularly and makes announcements, why expect answers to specific questions requesting details?
sarc
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Dennis. BOB has a massive ego and is always so certain about everything he spruiks, but now his scam has been exposed, he is like a rabbit caught in the headlights. The saving grace – if that is what you can call it – is the media coverup has finally been exposed too.
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He also has a history spanning back to local government and a Labor Councillor who ended up in prison mate who was convicted of conspiracy to commit murder (I think that was the charge) for arranging the murder of Labor NSW MLA John Newman (RIP), as he wanted to be candidate for election to that position but Newman would not resign.
The later media story was that the convicted Labor Councillor managed to arrange Chinese New Year parties inside Sydney Long Bay Gaol a couple of years running supplied by a Chinese restaurant and attended by visitors from outside the prison, the Minister for Corrective Services (NSW Labor) when told had no knowledge.
10
Again, the average capacity factor for Aussie wind is just 24% and Solar is just 15%.
But NZ capacity factor for wind is 40%.
But toxic, unreliable W and S only last about 15 to 20 years, while properly maintained BASE-LOAD Gas, Coal or Nuclear would still be generating past 2100.
Also no need to destroy thousands of klms of our environments to install risky, toxic, unreliable W & S at far greater ongoing cost for the long suffering taxpayer.
Reliable base-load energy means we will always have energy security and of course that further guarantees our national security.
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Even if Australia pulls out of the renewables disaster, what is in place will stay there and be used or rot until the entire mechanical and electrical disaster needs replacing. Who is going to pay for the cleanup, or does all this crap stay in place until ‘mother earth’ cleans it up over the next 50years. It might become a built-in resource of scarce renewables, but what happens to the detritus that has no useful function.
One positive thing. As long as the scrap stands it will be a giant reminder of the disaster of politicians being elected who have no useful skills nor experience in anything but politics and that led the nation, by force, into an economic and independence-destroying debacle.
It should also be a gigantic reminder to never again be trapped in self-delusion by the highly moralistic-sounding but evil, baseless demands from people like the greens, teals and Marxists. Some of the teals should know better, but don’t seem to use their expertise for anything but political power.
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Labor Greens Teals and One Nation complain that the Coalition, they allege, support renewables, they do not apart from Snowy Hydro Electricity Scheme.
What Dutton Plan outlined was to add seven nuclear power installations, five large power stations and two single generator plants. They would replace generator capacity already shut down that was generated by coal fired power stations, and add some additional capacity.
They intended to utilise all existing electricty supply technologies already built and supplying, albeit wind and solar unreliably and intermittently.
Consider contractural arrangements in place and related incentive subsidies for profit before earning revenue and operating profit, and wholesale system of bidding for time slots to supply and pricing, and then all supply sources are paid the highest bid to favour wind, solar, batteries and stop power station competition from quoting lower prices and the highest bids not accepted.
Dutton Coalition proposed the traditional Liberal Party of Australia Free Enterprise (socialists call capitalism) free market forces. Let the owners decide what to invest in and what to replace.
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You dont understand that wind energy is free.
sarc
70
Damn! I forgot that. I usually like freebies Dennis.
70
Mysterious line oscillations,
And rare atmospheric vibrations,
Showing power failure signs,
In the high voltage lines,
Caused blackouts in the Iberian nations.
240
Bravo! Bravo! Ola!
60
The Final Report into the Spanish blackout was released on 21 March 2026:
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2026/03/20march-finalreport-iberianblackout/
For those who don’t have the time to read it all, it is a 472 page apology for not being able to identify a clear causal sequence leading up to the blackout. Lots of excuses, including insufficient instrumentation on their lower voltage transmission network, and operators not being able to provide documentation on the behaviour of specific generators.
Specifically, the report takes great pains not to identify the generators or specific equipment that were the source of the voltage instability that caused the blackout. But Figure 1-2 on page 10 shows that, on the day of the blackout, that voltage instability started at about 10:30am local time.
Figure 1-6 shows how voltage instability resulted in a rapid rise in grid voltage to well outside the normal operating band (max 420kV) within the final minute before the blackout. Again, while this figure identifies some critical events, the report fails to address why the grid operators were unable to deal with this rapid voltage increase.
The investigators were able to do one very useful thing: they built a model of the Spanish grid and were able to accurately replicate the behaviours seen on the day. But it takes them until page 311 to produce a result that clearly shows the source of the problems on their grid.
Figures 4-114 and 4-115 show the behaviour of grid voltage and frequency, had the grid had eight new synchronous condensers operating. The preceding text provides no technical information on the capacity of those syncons, but the results from their simulation are self-evident. They show that complete failure would not have occurred had the syncons been operational.
Had the Spanish grid maintained sufficient synchronous generation, from coal, nuclear, gas or hydro, the blackout would not have occurred.
So the authors of the report never say the obvious! The Spanish grid failed because it had too much inverter based energy, and not enough synchronous energy. When instability events happened, the lack of sufficient system strength and inertia caused the grid voltage to increase uncontrollably, tripping numerous automatic safety systems, that led to the blackout event.
But you won’t find any such straightforward explanation in the report’s Root Cause Tree 14 factors on pages 333/334.
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Thanks for saving us from having to read the whole report Paulie. You would think the system operator, who knew what the problem was because it had happened before, would have the ability to flick a few solar farms off the grid when the voltage took off.
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Thanks Paulie, added to the post!
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“La cagamos a lo grande y nos cubrimos las espaldas.”
That’s Spanish for “we messed up big time and covered our rear end “.
120
According to Wikipedia Spain’s Solar capacity factor is 17% or just 2% higher than Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country
80
And Spain’s Wind capacity factor is just 23% or 1% less than Australia according to Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_by_country
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Tony has provided a figure of around 17% for large-scale solar on the “National” grid.
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For supposedly “sunny” nations, that capacity factor is a condemnation of those sponsoring intermittent and unreliable electricity.
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Yeah, but it’s Spain, not a modern country like Australia.
It could never happen here!
/sarc
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John. See below!
40
The most pervasive problem in societies today is an epidemic of bureaucratic ass-covering and a lack of accountability. It’s everywhere, in every country, in every industry, in every political system. Bureaucrats would rather let the grid collapse than admit Net Zero was a multi-trillion dollar boondoggle based on fearmongering. They would rather let fraud run rampant in public programs than admit they have a problem tracking where the firehose of public money goes. They would rather keep throwing good money after bad on failed social programs and projects (like homelessness programs and trains to nowhere) than admit they have failed. They would rather kick the can down the road on geopolitical time bombs like Iran than deal with it in the here and now. They would rather posture and pander to their political base than collaborate with the other side of the aisle to solve real problems.
240
Hi Jo,
Speaking of being yet to be held to account, there was a 2-week blackout in Broken Hill and the wider Far-West region of NSW back in October 2024. The cause, that it lasted so long, was not so much the transmission line downed in a storm, but the fact that the Network Service Provider for the region had failed to maintain the two large backup generators at Broken Hill specifically installed to deal with this contingency. Without these generators providing the necessary synchronous inertia, the isolated system remained down until the transmission line was repaired. The facts are all on the public record. The Network Service Provider is yet to be held accountable.
Well found Jo, and well presented.
Paul Miskelly
220
We need a ‘Spanish Inquisition’.
100
“failed to maintain the two large backup generators at Broken Hill ”
Even without the gas turbine(s), they had wind and solar which proved as useful as two men off sick, in fact the toxic, unstable W&S caused the GT to trip because of the wobbles.
141
In today’s Australian, business section, Mr Garnaut’s green energy company has a bit of trouble. Hasn’t made a profit for three years and has had a wind drought evidently. Having trouble finding buyers.
Then Robert Gottliebsen has a mind boggling story on the efficiency and ability of the AEMO the nation relies on for organising its power arrangements. An $8.5b (2020 -date not vision obviously) green energy transmission lines cost estimate in NSW and Victoria has turned into a national nightmare. $8b becomes $121B and likely to become ~$200B plus the costs for the generators. the total costs estimate – $1T over 35 years because it’s all borrowed money!
Venezuella? We’re already there. Victoria of all States to be in this when it already has unpayable debt that will no doubt be taken over by the rest of us.And the ‘rest of us’ aren’t in great economic circumstances already.
150
Total costs – UNKNOWN, not published
Cost-Benefit Analysis, cost effectiveness, well they are socialists
60
Send the Dynamic Trio of Albanese, Bowen and Chalmers to explain green energy and why Spain needs more wind and solar and many big battery installations
sarc
50
For a nation in huge debt, how come the governments of the day haven’t walked away from Snowy 2. How come the banks will finanace something like that but become so politicised they won’t fund coalmine investments?
I wonder if they would fund the processing of coal into other useful energy forms? That would be a big problem to put before the Albanese government. Would saving the nation some pain be enough reason for it to get involved in this? Or would ideology make sure it is tainted so much investors would get the message it’s not going anywhere?
I remind people coal pulled us out of a similar position in WW2 when ‘gas producers’ were strapped to the back of vehicles to keep them moving.
80
Too much money already spent, compensation liability to contractors, Snowy Hydro Limited wholly Federal Governmemt owned private business so accounting off government budgets, and that $6 billion was paid to the States to buy their shares in Snowy Hydro Limited is included in the published so far costs.
I read that the Snowy 02 was originally in the Snowy Hydro Scheme planning until it was decided it would not be cost effective and the location was very difficult for tunneling and with primitive equipment compared to what they have today.
However, we must not forget that the ghost squad admitted their ace up sleeve they believe is pumping electricity from not needed wind turbines supply utilising the unpredictable intermittent operating.
40
Judging by the “name” should I give “Red Energy” the flick. <:o). Cheers.
10
Those who wish for a return to Australian electricity from coal or gas, but are timid because it is a hard political package to sell, have the option to remove some doubt by creating a Special Interest Group like “Friends of Suitable Electricity” or whatever, to promote that the skills and money availability already exist in the population.
Beats just writing about it.
Geoff S
90
I was told decades ago that most voters remain in their world saying nothing much apart from occasional whinges to mates until they feel the pain of their “HIP POCKET NERVES”.
Electricity supply is always available at a flick of a switch, all good until it’s not, then complain
30
He was rubbished for his stunt in Parliament but Scott Morrison was right when he held up a lump of coal and commented do not be afraid.
60
Is there an explanation as to why the eight new synchronous condensers which could have prevented the blackout were not procured and installed at some point in Spain’s transition into a wind and solar powered future?
At some point in the past four or five years, did Spain’s grid engineers state a need for eight new synchronous condensers of some specified size, but were told by someone in higher authority these weren’t needed?
10
Thank you for these important updates, Joanne Nova. Independent nonprofit California (USA) intervenor Californians for Green Nuclear Power, Inc. (CGNP) has been following the mid-day 28 April 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout. Here is our 8 July 2025 update: “The Spanish Version of the ‘Duck Curve’ is a real killer. This curve underscores the problem of insufficient synchronous grid inertia in Spain on April 28, 2025, Gene Nelson, Ph.D., GreenNUKE Substack
CGNP is working on a follow-on article that shows that Spain has not learned from their mistakes, which are driven by Socialist ideology. Instead of using safe, abundant, reliable, cost-effective and nonpolluting nuclear power to the maximum, Spain is burning much more natural gas. CGNP believes that California wants to burn more fossil fuels to maintain synchronous grid inertia instead of keeping its remaining nuclear power plant named Diablo Canyon online.
10