By Jo Nova
The big losers in this war, apart from some former Iranian leaders, appear to be China, and NATO.
In the last two months China has lost easy cheap access to cheap oil from Venezuela and now Iran. China was getting around the sanctions and buying discounted Iranian oil through a shadow fleet of ships. It was acquiring as much as 80% of Iranian oil production. Now it has to pay market prices and fight for a limited supply.
Meanwhile the divide between the US and Europe is suddenly very obvious. NATO has been shown to be an empty shell.
Victor Davis Hanson, the military historian, explains the big picture:
GB News: Basically, is this a victory for Donald Trump? Does Does this ceasefire represent a victory for his sort of strategic campaign?
Victor Davis Hanson: Well, if it’s honored, it is because when all of the rhetoric and all of the politics vanish, and if they abide by the agreement and we stop and the straits stay open and … if we’re viligant — then it is.
He [Trump] comes back and he says when I came into office Iran had the ability to make 11 bombs apparently … we’ve realized they had missiles that would reach Europe. They had shut down, through the proxies, the Red Sea. They had caused October 7th — and they can’t do that anymore at least for the foreseeable future. If they think they’re going going to try, I or any future president can stop them at very minimal cost. This has cost about 50 to 60 billion dollars.
It’s about probably a quarter of what was stolen in California under the Newsom regime by welfare fraud. And we’ve lost tragically 13 soldiers. We lost the same amount in one day in Afghanistan getting out of Afghanistan. So if everybody just keeps calm and looks at the actual data, the cost, the benefit, uh, and who wins and loses, … I think in two months nobody’s going to be talking about this if it holds.
We’re in an information war. I recommend people watch this to understand just how deep and complete the wall of anti-Trump propaganda is.
From the Transcript: A brief history of the last 47 years of the Iranian war — “Death to America”
Victor Davis Hanson asks “what was the alternative?”
Because for 47 years [the Iranians] had bombed the American embassy in Beirut. There were operatives who bombed us in Tanzania and Kenya. They had kidnapped people and butchered them. They blew up 243 Marines. They probably killed anywhere from 700 to 1,500 American servicemen in Iraq and Afghanistan by sending advisers and shape charges to the opposition.
They tried to kill Donald they had a plot to kill Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and they wanted to kill the Saudi ambassador right inside Washington DC. They were supplying the Houthis that were disrupting and causing a lot longer and more extensive damage in the Red Sea, the entry to the Suez Canal. They shut that down for 5 months. And then in addition, we would never have [had] October 7th. None of this would have happened had Iran not supplied Houthis, Hamas, and and Hezbollah.
So at some point somebody had to bell the cat and every single administration said they were going to do it. Ronald Reagan said he was going to do it. We had the tanker wars where they did shut down the Hormuz strait. We had then George HW Bush who said this was intolerable. He did nothing. Bill Clinton thought of doing something. He did nothing. George W. Bush — people advised him.
People say that Trump is guided by the Israelis. The Israelis told him in 2003 it was a mistake to go after Saddam and it would be a preferable target for Iran which was the nexus really of terror not Saddam. [The US] did nothing about Iran even when they supplied these charges. Then we had Barack Obama and his idea was to appease them and create an alternate nexus of power in Iran and then Damascus and then Beirut and the Gaza and then play that off against the Gulf states in Israel and he would adjudicate as if there was a moral equivalence between the two. That didn’t work.
And then we had Trump’s first term — he didn’t want to do this. He put maximum pressure. He sanctioned them. He declared that the Houthi is a terrorist organization. And then they were silent for a while. Soon as Joe Biden came back in, he lifted all the sanctions, all the punitive measures. They got a hundred billion dollars in oil revenue. The Houthis were right back at it.
And then he came in a second time, Trump, and he said he was going to … stop this. And I think you could make a plausible argument that they have suffered the greatest military loss in the history of the Middle East as far as the number of missiles, uh, launchers, uh, naval assets. They don’t have an air force. They have shoulder fired missiles now. They will be resupplied by Russia and China, but they still, even when they had air defenses, the Israelis, the United States took them out.
The end of the NATO era?
Later in the interview Victor Davis Hanson wonders “What’s the purpose of NATO after this latest war?” The US helped the UK and Europe in the Falklands, in Serbia, in Libia, Ukraine, but now weak countries speak against the US and pay the Danegeld to Iran to get their boats through. Iran had long wanted to set up a payment system (effectively extortion) for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and only one country stood against that.
An alternative narrative to the ABC sprouting this as a Truomp defeat.
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This could have been Trump’s massive victory – but he did fold before winning.
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To my mind, Iran blinked first.
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What has come out of this war?
The world just witnessed WWIII. Precison munitions + AI just took out the world’s 16th ranked miltary in 4 weeks without an offensive soldier on the ground.
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
The US lost two pilots, went into Iran and used sophisticated equipment to locate the pilots, sent in air support and special forces and took them out. It is not widely reported, but Iranians on the ground were wiped out in the hundreds.
In addition the US lost a few planes out of thousands. Israel lost none.
The question you have to ask yourself is, are you safer in the US right now as a politician or soldier or do you seriously want to be promoted to the Head of an IRGC unit so that Israel can put a bullet in your head while you are sitting on your toilet, thinking they won’t find you.
Lastly, the world also learned there are now (2) extremely competent militaries: Israel and America. The US CENTCOM leaders were in Tel Aviv in the Kirya – Israel’s Pentagon making sure the two countries acted as one.
The Israelis just called it “Our First War in English.” As an ex-militray American I can assure you that if you asked the Pentagon what country they wanted to fight a common enemy with it would be a unanimous vote: Israel – without question. They are truly amazing.
Yeah, Guess what? The Iranian Regime got their ass kicked while their own people cheered. Sucks to be a Islamo-Fascist psychopath in Iran these days. Allah just ignored your prayers.
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Iran won decisively and Trump was forced into a humiliating climb down. Yes he’ll spin it as a “huge victory” but everyone who understands what happened knows that is pure codswallop.
As for China … they got exactly what they wanted. They will be celebrating, especially if the west is deluding itself about the reality of this this change.
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Victor Davis Hanson is not everyone.
His interpretation is quite different.
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VDH interpretation is from the same ill-informed point of view that is prevalent in most of the United States.
Our “Scottish Sceptic” represents a more pragmatic point of view, stripped of the hysterics and religious dogma.
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You should take a look at his website!
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Trump has declared a 50% tariff on any country sending weapons to Iran with no exceptions. It’s not going to be easy for China to control the Strait of Hormuz through Iran as it planned.
China has invested billions in the Belt and Road (and Defence Force) of Iran. Now it has lost its sources of cheap oil — and those CCP weapons, which defended both Venezuela and Iran are not looking very effective. How is that a win for China?
Critics might like to watch the VDH interview. He lists military history examples in rapid fire, to show that compared to past wars, so far, this one has been an extraordinary success at low cost, with few casualties and for seemingly big benefits.
I have not seen anyone respond to the main point in the post above. Iran was going to get nuclear missiles and was a murderous regime already slaughtering its own people en masse and in cruel and barbaric ways — what alternative was there?
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Even Russia? Believe that when I see it.
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Senior Russian diplomats are already in the US for talks. Do not know what about but perhaps we should wait a bit longer to make any strong pronouncements about what is likely to happen.
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click above
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Click what?
.
[The text “what alternative was there” in Gee Aye’s comment is a link to Wikipedia’s Iran Nuclear Deal page. – Raquel]
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I cannot understand how so many people, notably journalists, could not see the tactics used by DJT, of course much of what he commented about was hyperbole and puffery (as lawyers describe it when businesses are claiming infringement of patent or trademark etc rights) however it has worked where it was intended to work.
As I posted earlier the wiping out of a civilisation was a religion based form of insult and mocking of the supreme leaders of Iran, not the good people of Iran
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pipelines up to the Caspian and through central Asia will solve the problem. Russia doing same Disagree with Davis assessment.A fail, except for US armament industries..
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I have supported the idea of a war from the beginning, as the threat of Iran getting nuclear weapons is horrifying, but this was not the way to go about it.
Firstly you don’t alienate your allies as Trump has been doing for a year with the tariffs, threatening to annexe countries then calling them cowards. Secondly you need to know your enemy. Iran has fanatical leaders. They have amassed a huge armoury of missiles which they kept safely away from destruction in tunnels. Thirdly you protect your allies in the region and last you recognise from the outset that it is a certainty that Iran will occupy the international sea lanes of Hormuz and throttle world trade.
Their allies, also heavily armed, will do the same in other strategic waterways. Trump has threatened several times to destroy Iran but pulls back. Some would say he blinked first. This ceasefire is very unlikely to last as it is built on sand and if Iran extracts payment for using an international waterway then they have the upper hand.
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There is only one ally that counts in the middle east and we have just seen them in action alongside the U.S.
They are not/will not be alienated. Sometimes you have to stand up and be counted. I doubt whether some commentators above would have the bottle.
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“…. one ally that counts in the middle east …”
Yeah, speaking of murderous regimes, it’s that one, isn’t it?
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I think that it has clearly been shown that countries like the NATO and now even Australia are not really allies anymore just bludgers on the US.I believe that this is because of their now large Muslim populations, who they are scared of, and the infiltration of most of their institutions by far left nut jobs. If you study what is happening in South America with the rise of right wing capitalist governments and the growing support for Trump and match it with Trump stated attempt to make a Western Hemisphere into a US lead coalition I am sure Trump does not feel any need to pay any attention to these fair weather friends anymore.
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Regarding the main point: Ali Khamenei, the previous Supreme Leader of Iran, had issued a Fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons. Tulsi Gabbard agreed that Iran was not building nuclear weapons. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-iran-wasnt-building-a-nuclear-weapon-trump-dismisses-that-assessment
So what did Trump and Israel do? They had Khamenei assassinated. The new leader may well reverse that decision.
“murderous regime already slaughtering its own people en masse “? And who told you this? Western MSM? For another POV see the videos interviewing Prof Seyed Marandi.
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A good read on the history of Iran since ~ 1900
https://griobhtha1.substack.com/p/a-century-of-lies-the-western-war
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PBS is even less trustworthy in regards to anything Trump than Their ABC.
As for “americas spies”, the CIA and other US intelligence agencies were neck deep in the anti Trump conspiracies that started in 2016, and that many of the operatives involved in them are still pushing to this day.
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Good luck enforcing that on China because they continuously send weapons to Iran and don’t even hide it all that much.
China really doesn’t need Americans to be consumers anymore … they have the technology they need now and can take it from here.
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That would be a valid argument if the Straits of Hormuz were open and the western economies were not facing an impending oil crisis.
In order to win, Trump had to achieve his “aim”. Unless you count his aim as “doing whatever Netanyahu told him”, most people would say something like changing the Iranian government … it’s the same people. Or ending nuclear enrichment. Something they are still doing … and indeed, all Trump has done is kill the person whose Fatwa prevented them developing nuclear weapons. Or some might say “re-open the straits”.
All Trump has actually succeeded in doing, is to create global support for the Iranian’s action of closing the Straits of Hormuz, pushed toward dedollarisation and pushed the heavily indebted west toward a massive recession.
The west had around two months of fuel reserves. We must be about half way through that reserve. When that reserve runs out the western economies crash. Iran has shown it can survive for another month … the question now is whether the west can survive for another month.
That is the real situation. We in the west are staring at economic collapse and reliant on Iran or Russia’s good will to prevent it happening.
To describe that as “winning” is a new twist on the English language.
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Is it winning where Iranian psychopaths get nuclear missiles? Or did you have a better plan to stop that?
Would a nuclear Iran open the Straits of Hormuz to free trade, or would they extort billions more because they could?
As for the oil crisis, the USA has plenty of oil and gas, they are net exporters. It’s just the rest of us fools that are being squeezed, and that probably suits Trump too. Europe will buy more US oil and gas, and they might wake up to their industrial vulnerability and get a scare. Mark Rutte was sounding a lot more conciliatory yesterday. The NATO EU chiefs have had a nasty shock.
As for DeDollarization, Trump and Vance probably want that. They have both spoken about the Resource Curse. The nation that has the worlds reserve dollar cannot also have a manufacturing base. We all know Trump wants manufacturing back in the US, he just can’t publicly announce he wants the value of the USD to fall.
Trump is 2 steps ahead. That doesn’t mean the Mullahs will play nice, and it doesn’t mean the Strait of H will be open, but we’re still better off than we would have been if the Chinese assisted weapons had arrived in Iran.
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That’s something the vast majority are incapable of seeing, since emotions and opinions about the Iranian regime overrule purely objective assessments.
Claiming a “destroyed” IRGC Navy, when the bulk of it is basically armed speed boats that still exist, and a “destroyed” Air Force, when it is carefully housed and deep underground, is gilding a non-existent lily to support a personal opinion.
The true IRGC strength is in missiles and that has been walked back from 100% “destroyed” to 90% to 80% to 70% to, most recently ” we don’t how many decoys we’ve hit so it could be under 50%”
Recent satellite photos show the principal manufacturing sites to be largely undamaged.
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Aircraft and vessels underground tend to be a bit useless. Should they reappear, they will be whacked.
The US isn’t going away. It’s rearming, refilling supplies and sitting there, eyes and satellites overhead waiting for the next move on the chess board.
The glee of some calling this a defeat for Trump is remarkable as though a nuclear armed Iran is nothing to worry about. It’s future is written: Israel must be destroyed.
Funny that never gets the headlines Trump’s hyperbolic message of bombing Iran ‘back to the stone Age’ got. The extremes of the left press know no bounds. The term ‘back to the Stone Age’ is an old term used commonly before the woke generation took over. TDS all over!
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I doubt that any were missed other than, maybe, deep underground installations and they would have been identified and contained.
Israel’s most excellent track record Mossad Intelligence Agency has had agents embedded inside Iran and as former Mossad chiefs have commented from Israel when interviewed by Sharri Markson Sky News Australia the agents are from the very top to the very bottom of the society and structure, one remarked agents are seated in even war room meetings. They have access to the IT system and even traffic light surveillance cameras that enabled them to track and notify IDF of the locations and coordinates for precision attack.
The point that is too often missed or conveniently ignored is that the President never said there would be a ground force invasion of Iran, however selective special force activities is commando-style targeting.
Even the uranium said to be in two batches, weapons grade and enriched but much lower grade that could be further enriched given time and facilities needed, is a very tiny target and thought to be buried under the mountain and rubble from the first strike attack.
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Iran is not a country. It is a theocratic murderous dictatorship. And almost everyone at the top is dead. So how did they win exactly?
Gaza is history. Hezbollah is crippled. The Houthis launched one missile, they say. And the world is awake to the Iranian deceit with their two stage missiles. If you thought the most oil rich country in the world needed to enrich uranium for domestic power, you would redefine gullible.
Faced with the destruction of Kharg island with the US bombers already in the air and America refusing to put boots on the ground, the IRGC were on the verge of being flat broke. Munitions cost money, even drones. They caved with minutes to spare.
What happens next after only six weeks is unknown, but Iran is still economically and socially intact and the rats have been fleeing for weeks, wiring their money out of the country. That’s winning.
Plus they have defanged, which will allow the Abraham Accord to be completed and after 100 years of wars on Israel and each other, peace to break out in the Middle East.
It is now up to the Iranian people who are not Arabs and not willing muslims, except you are murdered if you deny Islam.
Plus everyone is watching. Iran has no airforce, no navy, only missiles and fewer and fewer of those. Plus everyone hates you, not fears you. Isolated except for China and Russia.
The stage is set for a new Iran, but after so little time and so few Americans dead and the critical agreement to remove all the enriched uranium, the only possible win
is the ability to charge people passing the Straits of Hormuz. Which is tolerable for a time. But which will simply fund the building the pipelines straight to the Meditteranean, shorting the delivery time massively. And the only people going through the Straits will be the Iranians themselves. Then only Iran will be extremely vulnerable.
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Except the useful idiots of the Left, part of the Red-Green alliance who verbally defend the IRGC (and in this case “Green” does not refer to the Gaia worshippers).
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Palestine must be free, but is no State to be
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I suspect that Trump is disappointed that the people of Iran did not rise up again against their regime as they attempted three months ago, but what do you think Trump’s other criteria for victory are/were? Genuine question, for these need not be the same as Europe’s criteria.
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how many US military bases destroyed through the middle east? A lot. How may planes lost last weekend, a lot. Hormuz Strait now closed again. I agree this is not a win. Strait was supposed to be open with a fee of $1million per passage. A good deal for Iran. I would like to agree with VDH’s assessement, but I cannot agree with it.
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Al Pinocchio & Pong believe that de escalation policies preached by them is the secret to peace! They believe they’ve saved the world from WWIII. REALLY?? Goofballs !!!!
Somebody must point out that de escalation is a 2 way street!!
If this attempt to end the conflict fails there’s only one alternative & that is the alternative that President Trump has explained to those gormless goofballs more than once!
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I have watched and listened to older school former ALP MPs and Cabinet Ministers on Sky News as guests shaking heads and condemning the present mob as leftist amateurs, student activists that never got over it
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The only victory over honour-shame based ideologies is total humiliation followed by unconditional surrender.
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This war is not over by a long stretch. While the theocracy remains, it has the will of a death cult to destroy the great satan. Even yesterday, one hour after the ceasefire started, the Iranian regime launched missiles at the UAE and Isreal. Iran WILL lose its infrastructure before this is over. It will hurt the civilian population but it will destroy the theocracy’s ability to wage any type of aggression.
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I suspect everyone has overlooked the non Theocractic conventional Iranian Army.
Iran has a conventional military known as the Artesh (Islamic Republic of Iran Army), which operates alongside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While the IRGC focuses on protecting the regime and conducting special operations, the Artesh is responsible for defending Iran’s national borders and territorial integrity, operating separate ground, air, navy, and air defense forces.
The Artesh (Regular Army): Focused on conventional defense and territorial integrity. It has approximately 350,000 to 420,000 active personnel.
It has its own ground forces, navy, air force, and air defense force, distinct from the IRGC’s branches.
The Artesh serves in a traditional military role, while the IRGC is tasked with protecting the Islamic Republic system itself.
Both the Artesh and the IRGC report to the Supreme Leader, with the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) managing high-level coordination between them.
and the Basij: A large volunteer paramilitary force controlled by the IRGC, often used for internal security and as a reserve force.
While the IRGC has become more powerful and influential in recent years, the Artesh remains the primary force for traditional, conventional warfare.
In the 1978 revolution, encouraged by European leaders, the Artesh stood down. Much depends on their General Staff, given the Supreme Leader is dead, most of his underlings and his son was seriously wounded and is said to be ‘unconscious’ after six weeks.
If the Artesh get behind the Shah’s Pahlavi son , there could be a very quick and acceptable political solution. Or one of the Generals steps up, as often happens.
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This was the case in Germany under Hitler, where Hitler was at odds with the army who plotted to kill him. The murderous SS grew out of his personal bodyguard, not the army. And they competed for everything. I liken the SS to the IRGC. No one talks about the Iranian army. It’s hard to find any current information, but the people with guns will decide Iran’s fate and their own.
From Google “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has an estimated 150,000 to over 190,000 active personnel in its conventional military branches. This force includes army, navy, aerospace, and Quds Force units. Additionally, the IRGC controls the Basij paramilitary force, which can mobilize hundreds of thousands of volunteers. ” So the Basij corresponds roughly to Hitler’s thugs, the brown shirts.
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IRGC are of course not only religion based fanatics but the leaders are onto a good thing and will stick to it for as long as they can, personal wealth creation skimmed off the revenue of the Nation of Iran taxes and export revenues.
Like German SS.
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Hitler and friends were at the heart crooks. Murderous crooks. And disgusting human beings, monsters. Their only real ideology was power and theft. Like most dictators.
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Give Hitler his due. He may have been a power crazy murderous psychopath, but unlike his minions, he lived a pretty abstemious private life.
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The complete opposite of Winston Churchill. Is abstemious a good thing? Or did he have a few really serious health and mental problems?
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Like Putin , Hitler only wanted the territory of adjourning Nations. Of course the next Nation then became Hitler,s neighbour. ……… Ukraine is protecting all of Europe and Europe knows this. Russia says every day it is going to invade Europe. Trump is not supporting Europe. Europe can not send it,s Military to the Middle East. ……. NATO is a Defensive Alliance.
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Increasingly like those on the government purse in Australia.
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Many will have an opinion including me. How do you get rid of an evil regime. Iran that is?
Not easily done IMHO.
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Keep cutting off its head until a friendly head appears.
I have the view that a solid majority of Iranians are friendly. I have seen the number of 14 million who support the islamic regime. But if you cut off their money supply, the numbers will drop quickly. I expect only a small fraction of the 14 million would be willing to die for islam.
It is similar to the Climate Change fanatics. Cut off their income and they end up finding something more constructive to earn a living.
Australia has created an insatiable monster with the current “renewables” policy. It is in need of a death blow and One Nation might be capable of that.
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I am sure that the majority of Iranians are nice people. My son tells me that as he visited there some 15 + years ago with a school friend and five other mates. The friend’s father was Iranian and his mother Australian and they flew there via Malayasia at the time. Having three weeks there they travelled widely and maybe because the boy’s uncle had a high military position in the air force there was some sort of benign protection. He recalls at night behind closed doors women would have the latest fashions and parties would be very enjoyable.He remembers one night very late where a van pulled up outside and very quickly liquor would be carried into the house, having been carried by mules for days over mountains from outside the country before hand.
What sort of country forces its people to do that to enjoy alcohol and to stop women dressing as they wish ? Time that group were terminated.
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Iran, a long term quandary –
ttps://saulsteinbergfoundation.org/artwork/untitled-1973-ink-on-paper/
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has anybody actually read iran’s 10 point plan, which if agreed to would be an iran victory … israel is not part of any ceasefire … there is no cease fire … and iran plans to charge $2,000,000 for each ship passing through the strait of hormuz.
iran’s 10 point plan is at the conclusion of the article at the link below:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-declares-decisive-victory-but-who-really-won-the-iran-war/
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the initial 10-point plan proposed by Iran was “fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded” by the administration.
“It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team,”
.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5823074-trump-iran-10-point-plan-what-to-know/
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It’s not even close to over. Ceasefire is just a cover for re-arm and regroup.
Hardest hit is Asia, but the propagation delay on the output side is still coming, and that’s what people don’t get.
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…and as of this post, Hormuz is now CLOSED, due to Israel striking Lebanon.
Those that haven’t stocked up would be wise to do so.
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‘NATO has been shown to be an empty shell.’
Its an illegal war, same as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, so NATO is not obligated to join the fray.
The general chatter is that the POTUS is going to withdraw American troops from Europe and the Europeans are now stepping up to full mobilisation.
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Re full mobilisation, How?
It will be years before that can happen, and that assumes that the EU continues and current governments in Germany, France, and Spain. Possibly Poland which is in better state of military readiness than most of Europe, but unlikely to go it alone (although Polish Lancers charged Panzer with swords in 1939).
Hungary and Slovakia won’t be that keen on suicide, and quite keen on getting cheap Russian (Oops! I meant Turkistan) gas through Turkey.
The German Chancellor has publicly asked Russia to restore gas supplies via the Nordstrom pipeline (or the one still OK) to try and save their industry.
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‘Re full mobilisation, How?’
Its mostly smoke and mirrors to give the impression that they are not sitting on their hands. Modern warfare is all about intelligence and drones, small standing armies highly skilled to meet a possible threat.
When the US went into Iran POTUS eased pressure off Russia’s shadow fleet, so in retaliation and without hesitation Ukraine severely bombed Russia’s export terminals.
Germany can ask Russia to restore gas as a good will gesture, a negotiating pawn during future ceasefire arrangements.
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Why is it an illegal war?
Israel and the USA have been under attack by Iran in one form or another for 47years. Even the Iranians would laugh at this misconception. The aim of Iran, Hamas etc is for genocide of Jews at home and abroad.
Bondi ring a bell?
Israel and the USA have every right to defend themselves and defeat their enemies that have declared war upon them.
One has to deplore the Europeans. They pulled their Defence pants down after the fall of the Berlin Wall. They seem to have been ideologically blinded to all events which should have warned them of their progressing precarious situation for 40years.
Now they learn Iran was producing intercontinental ballistic missiles, was on the brink of putting nuclear explosives on the pointy end. The Europeans are only as far along rearming as they are because Trump put the spurs in during his first Presidency – and was pilloried for it!.
Imo they aren’t helping out because they are impotent. They are trying to rearm at the same time that they are pouring armaments into Ukraine, trying to push off Putin! Even Germany is now putting the boots in telling NATO nations to immediately up their defence spending. They ‘weren’t asked by Trump’! Don’t they read, use the internet nor speak to the Americans? Or is that a step too far for nations that got fat and lazy, dropped their bundles and depended on the US taxpayers to defend them while they enjoyed the good life and cheap goods.
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It didn’t trip Article 5, so NATO is surplus to requirement. From a European perspective, American Adventurism is out of date.
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The leftists never answer what international law are they specifically relying on?
And don’t appear to understand that no any international law or court of foreigners can impose on sovereign nations unless the governmemt of the nation accepts interference and judgement.
Anyway, after 47 years of direct and indirect by proxies attacks, invasions, massacres, a final DEFENCE OPERATION was justifiable
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Well dont forget that the US supported Iraq in the Iraq – Iran war, which led to the deaths of 100’s of thousands of Iranians, and that Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran, with assistance from the USA (and other Western countries). So who are the bad guys?
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When ever was a war LEGAL? I have no idea what that means. Who decides? It’s a faux lawyer’s excuse for doing nothing. As for ‘international law’, that’s only by consensus not enforcement.
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‘ … only by consensus not enforcement.’
That is true, so America becomes the world policeman or pirate.
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Donald Trump has no interest in either. His wars are short, sharp and not the least ideological. Dictators like Maduro and Khomeini have looted their own people and both presented serious and ongoing major threats to the United States, openly and definiantly. One with really serious weapons and the other with drugs which killed thousands of young American men every year. Maduro even went on television and said “come and get me”. They did. The next night.
And in neither case did Trump slaughter anyone. They did the minimum, only the bosses. The people of Venezuela were being killed en masse by their own rulers. As in fact in Cuba. And China and Russia were in there, feeding at the trough and robbing the country.
Plus Trump has not tried to define the change, but let the people sort out their own regime on the basis that they work with the US to improve the place and make it wealthy again. Venezuela just 20 years ago was a very wealthy first world country, not a hell hole riddled with disease, poverty and starvation.
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Regardless of how barbaric people are, strategically it was a misstep. Premier Xi might get the Nobel Peace Prize.
‘As the world waits to see whether the shaky US-Iran ceasefire holds, China is being credited with playing a role in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table.
‘The exact details of Beijing’s involvement remain unclear, but the United States and Iran have signalled that China helped promote the Pakistan-mediated truce.’ (SMH)
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Quite. Russia judged under US cajoling as warmongering, whilst US does most of the invading, subversive operations, tariff imposition
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I do find amusing the idea of an illegal war. It’s obviously illegal under Iranian law to bomb Iran, but it’s not illegal under US or Israeli law! ‘International law’ is nonsense. There are only international treaties and their signatories.
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How media mislead us …
As a question answered on Bolt tonight from an Iranian Australian when she was asked her thoughts on the end of civilisation threat, she answered that DJT comments must not be taken at face value, analyse them. She said her contacts in Iran want the precision targeted bombing to continue as they believe the longer it goes on and the losses are incurred the closer the end is in sight as the regime leadership crumbles and loses assets without which they have less and less power.
And that the end of civilisation targets the mindset of the religion based supreme leaders and threatens their branch of Islam, not the Iran nation.
End of civilisation implied threat and meaning ….
Certain hardline Shiite ideologues interpret the conflict with the U.S. and its allies as a prophetic showdown that could lead to the arrival of the Mahdi, a messianic figure in Islamic eschatology. They view Trump’s threats as part of a larger narrative of an impending final battle, which they believe is foretold in their religious texts.
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Indeed. Israeli intelligence from within Iran is so precise, and so up to date, that the Americans and Israelis can pinpoint target basiji and IRCG street checkpoints and patrols and wipe them out with precision strikes.
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Yes agreed, but bombing bridges is bad news for civilians.
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You all are smart and reasonably observant.
But I would like to distill this down to identify which players are willing and energized to eliminate you (and or me) and your (our) family? Wait, you will have to identify as “Infidel” or not.
Happy to hear your discussion
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Victor Davis Hanson dealt with this idiot very effectively.
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POTUS Trump has had a great victory for carbon.
Even Sleezy is out in the market place trying to procure carbon based fuel.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/albanese-seeks-out-fuel-supply-deal-in-singapore-visit/ar-AA20tR8b
The words of POTUS Trump will be ringing in the ears of the foolish governments that have been taken in by the UN Climate Change™ hoax.
POTUS Trump is a colossus like no other before him. Smart, compassionate sensible and 5 moves ahead of the clowns in Europe and Australia. God keep him safe.
The UNIPCC will run out of OPM in 2028. That will be the end of the scam.
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‘Smart’
Enlightened self interest is vulgar and he has dementia, not so smart.
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Have you tried driving around Sydney lately?
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Europeans would be better off if Americans went home, and they got their own act together. Americans would be better off if they were not under the yoke trying to pay for defence of Europe.
NATO is a cold war relic which should at very least be reformed. Trump is completely right that the USA should no longer be involved.
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Yep, the cold war is over, better if US troops go home.
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He is exactly right. This was always about China, and Thucydides trap. They needed to deal with China while avoiding a direct confrontation with them. So many commentators getting their knickers in a twist about Trump saying is going to destroy a civilisation, all while having observed Trump for at least the last 10 years in political life. The Gulf states are happy, the Iranian people are happy, and quite frankly the opinions of the rest of us don’t really matter that much after that.
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I have come late to this discussion, but thank you Jo for posting the words of this great historian who knows the Middle East better than most. And history is important, because without an understanding of what creates crises, you can’t deal with them effectively.
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“They tried to kill Donald they had a plot to kill Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo, ”
You mean an FBI plot. If you’re in a disinformation war I don’t think Victor Davis Hanson really cuts the mustard.
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