How to hide $100b storage, transmission lines, battery costs in a dodgy accounting trick
The cost for our whole national $100 billion dollar energy transition apparently rests on a CSIRO report that assumes we’ve already spent the infrastructure money “therefore” future costs after 2030 are almost nothing. It’s like a Nigerian email scam… except that it has fooled our Minister for Energy.
You have been selected to win a new national electricity grid, just give us your economy…
Chris Bowen, said Minister, thinks wind and solar will reduce the cost of electricity, despite them doing the opposite so far.
The CSIRO GenCost report says that renewables are cheap if we pretend we have already spent the money on the transmissions lines, the pumped storage, the “firming” of the grid. It’s like a used car salesman that says the second hand electric car will be cheap to run while hiding the twenty grand you have to spend on a new battery before it can move out the door…
There is a circular reasoning here that says we assume it’s worth spending bezillions now because renewables will be cheap after we have spent bezillions. But that’s only true if we assume the bezillions are a sunk cost we’ve already spent. See how this scam works? The bill never comes in. Somewhere someone lost $100 billion dollars and no one at our once hallowed Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) even noticed. It’s like living in an Escher puzzle where you walk up the endless stairs to renewable heaven but never get there.
Why our energy transition needs a price tag
Claire Lehmann, The Australian
Writing in the Fresh Economic Thinking publication, Aidan Morrison points out that the CSIRO’s claim that renewables are the “cheapest” form of energy rests almost entirely on a misapplication of the “sunk cost” assumption.
In many situations, it makes sense to account for sunk costs. But the concept should always apply to money spent in the past, not in the future. By definition, costs that have not been incurred yet are avoidable, and are not yet sunk
“By use of a bizarre ‘sunk-cost’ assumption in their modelling, CSIRO cleaves the cost of infrastructure built prior to 2030 (when we would supposedly already have reached over 50 per cent renewable penetration) from any solar and wind generators built thereafter that might depend on that infrastructure,” Morrison writes in Fresh Economic Thinking. The CSIRO lists the projects that are written off as sunk: “Snowy 2.0 and the battery of the nation pumped hydro projects … various transmission expansion projects … New South Wales gas peaking plants at Kurri Kurri and Illawarra … The NSW target for an additional 2GW of at least eight hours duration storage is assumed to be met by 2030.” In response to this list, Morrison quips: “I’m losing count of the billions.”
“Every economist, politician, and policymaker relying on this report simply must hear about this,”
“Business as usual” for the CSIRO is a plan where billions of dollars was already deployed and the projects are finished (and we have even paid them off too).
Assume renewables are cheap, assume infrastructure is free, isn’t this fun?
This is the quote from the CSIRO where they blithely magic all the infrastructure into existence “for free”, just in case anyone wonders whether they really could do something so absurd.
“Snowy 2.0 and battery of the nation pumped hydro projects are assumed to be constructed before 2030 in the BAU as well as various transmission expansion projects already flagged by the ISP process to be necessary before 2030. New South Wales (NSW) gas peaking plants at Kurri Kurri and Illawarra are assumed to have been constructed. The NSW target for an additional 2 GW of at least 8 hours duration storage is also assumed to be met by 2030.”
Aiden Morrison is scathing, staggered, aghast — the CSIRO is assuming all the infrastructure was a private investment and therefore we don’t have to pay:
The ‘sunk cost’ trickery that makes renewables seem cheaper than they are”
How CSIRO justifies the exclusions: “Sunk Cost”
…But wait, this deception is so brazen and transparent, surely someone else would have raised this in an earlier draft or something? Oh, but they have. CSIRO devotes several pages to exactly such an objection. (Page 94, Appendix D, Section 2.3)
What the authors of CSIRO’s GenCost said in response, is simply staggering. Every economist, politician, and policymaker relying on this report simply must hear about this. They explicitly and clearly defend the idea that all the prior investment must be treated as ‘sunk’. They’re adamant that these investments are like risky private investments and therefore there must be a penalty for bad investments made by people who didn’t adequately study what would most likely be required in the future.
Perhaps most incredibly, they explicitly make this claim:
““The market does not owe the owner a reasonable return on their investment.” “
In reality all these monster infrastructure builds were only justified in the first place on the basis that they will enable lots of future unreliable solar and wind power, and the costs will be added to what we call the “regulated asset base” which guarantees a return to the investors and is quietly added to electricity bills.
The whole renewables case is a crooked card game from scientific start to economic end.
Black cards Image by Felix Wolf | Poker hand adapted from PDPics
When you see this sort of stuff, the only conclusion is that the people running the show don’t actually care anymore. They will do anything, say anything, whatever gets things moving for just a few weeks or even days longer. Their long term plan is don’t think about the long term.
What disturbs me is wondering why.
What kind of thing would make otherwise mostly sane people completely discard any consideration of the future? Do they know something bad is coming that makes all this discussion irrelevant? I wonder what it could be.
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It’s the same mindset that thinks that food comes from a store. No understanding of the interconnectedness of technology. They think that no matter what they do to the system, everything will keep going along ducky. They will still think that (and that it’s somebody else’s fault), even as they starve. . .
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“food comes from a store”.
Electricity comes from a wall socket;
Idiocy comes from an elected government …
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Chocolate milk comes from brown cows…
7% of Dumbericans believe that. 😄
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In fairness that survey wasn’t peer reviewed and we also know nothing of their sampling methods because, as far as I know, the methodology wasn’t published.
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True.
And that’s the absolute kindest thing you could possibly say about them.
Plus, we know they blatantly lie and misrepresent now, and they know they can get away with it because the Lamestream media fully supports and protects the Official Narrative AND no one in the Lib/Lab/Green Uniparty understands or cares.
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David,
this whole thing appears to be FRAUD on a HUGE scale.
Let’s see AnAl bring on his Double-Dissolution.
Yes, I know what he said was about the “housing”,
but he has so many DUD things on the go at the moment,
the double bunger seems the best way for Australia to go.
For ALL of us.
The Deep State are panicking and attempting to get things done
as quickly as possible before the “you-know-what”
hits the fan.
Bring it on!
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The same scam they are running on electricity they are running on defence. They assume we have all the things we will need to defend ourselves so there is no ned to buy any more. In fact we have so much stuff we can afford to give a lot of it to Ukraine and not replace it. We will keep some old planes so we don’t have to buy new ones. Oh for an Opposition that would stick it to the government. There are so many targets in the Albanese morass it would be impossible to miss unless you wanted to.
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The whole problem is that politicians no longer pretend to care about the peasants, while in he past they did.
Look at Zelensky, he has no hope at all of winning that war, but is happy to pretend its vital to try and will keep enriching himself while sending tens of thousands of men to die.
Every politicians is like that, or ends up like that. They will sacrifice us at the drop of a hat if it means they stay in power & get richer. They are the psychopathic scum that floats to the top of humanity.
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Laurence nails it – from 4.20.
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Laurence nails it – from 4.20.
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Sorry, crappy bit of linking. Go to GB News’ website – Laurence Fox, Friday 28th of July.
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The infrastructure cost goes to the your grid connection fee. That is the part of the electricity bill you MUST pay. When its big enough everyone who can afford it will go off-grid with batteries. Those remaining, businesses and the poor, will go under. Then states will bail out the transmission companies etc. because the main beneficiaries will be super farmers all connected to political parties.
ESG pays BIG Super boards and management a motza! No gambling involved.
Does any of all this scam prevent one molecule of CO2 going to our atmosphere?
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What’s CO2? Oh that’s the window dressing for ripping us off isn’t it?
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Already been answered. 😁
Short answer: unlimited energy=freedom, planned limited/unreliable energy=control.
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unlimited energy=freedom
Though tempered by financial cost of having to pay something for it.
At a thousand dollars a kwH I suspect there would be a lot of people planning on providing “supply options”.
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They’re convinced they are saving the world so it’s their moral conviction that’s driving them to keep going even when reality itself is against them.
It’s a pattern I’ve noticed when just talking to one of these useful idiot types, if you just state facts to them at first they get flustered, then they will suddenly accuse you of somehow being immoral for questioning their pet causes. Just under the surface of these people are confused emotions and irrationality, they’ve lost faith in organised religions and instead they are a hodgepodge of delusional beliefs, a lot of surprisingly well educated and successful people believe fervently in Newage ideas. Including a distorted idea of Karma, and so they genuinely believe if they just keep doing the ‘right thing’ it’ll payoff, that the universe will manifest some solution for them. This is why they keep expecting a pie in the sky solution.
It’s sounds so insane if you’ve never come across these types of people before but spend any time with managerial types, young entrepreneurs, or people working in tech, especially Americans and you’ll notice that they’ll talk about manifesting, synchronicity, etc. They just know enough not to talk about it in front of people who would see it for how weird it is.
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I DO ACCEPT all prior investments in renewables as sunk costs, then calculate needed future costs from that baseline. (Peak = demand/lowest output of renewables = X fold needed * (Sunk cost baseline) = Total added cost to replace thermal sources.
It’s a very simple formula for calculating ANY GRID’S required renewables investment.
I await any renewables zealots commentary.
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grid maintenance has been recognized for a long time.
My 45 to 50 year old electrical transformer and wooden power pole was replaced earlier this month….. I wonder what it cost Western Power with a crew of about a dozen for 4 hours
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But the same CSIRO also tell us that the entire SH is already NET ZERO, so what do they hope to achieve by wasting TRILLIONs more $ straight down the drain?
And according to Willis Eschenbach’s calculations Aussies have only managed to cover 4.7% from TOXIC W & S and the combined CAPACITY factor would be very low anyway.
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Corrupt Shysters and Incompetent Retards Organisation (CSIRO)
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I asked ScoMo why we are trying to reach net zero and used the CSIRO findings as a reference as they were his ‘go-to experts’ for justifying his position.
The response was to disagree with me.
Head, meet brick wall
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I know what you mean John, Morrisson was a disaster for the Libs and Australia.
He just was not smart enough to be our PM and negotiate the moral turpitude that
the climate/ energy question brought to the table. So, he was not equipt to sort out
the facts from the moral issues and lies presented to him from all sides, particularly
the bureaucracy, CSIRO, BoM and Climate Council all of whom had their hands firmly in the
funding till. The ongoing disgrace on climate issues since and including Turnbull is monumental!
It looks like Dutton also doesn’t get the climate/energy debacle just as Albo and Bowen
are mesmerized by their rise to power and importance guiding our nation into rapid decrepitude
due their faulty Eco vision and inability to learn from other nations energy mistakes.
Unfortunately, Australia now deserves to go down the energy gurgler, because of their stupidity
and lack of due diligence or technical, climate and financial matters. It’s almost a case of
driving one back to religion to gain some sanity, but I am too much a scientist for that; maybe logic will finally prevail, but we have a few years of growing energy and then job poverty in front of us first.
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With apologies for not knowing a better way to show a part of AEMO’s page/
Until they can understand how these figures are arrived at there will be no sense from them
Can’t we see it’s saving money?
All you have to do is sell your product at a negative price.
29 July 2023 – 12:20
QLD
PRICE
-$40.00
DEMAND VS GENERATION
4,450
5,405
SA
PRICE
-$57.30
DEMAND VS GENERATION
821
773
-29
-926
-87
136
NSW
PRICE
-$48.75
DEMAND VS GENERATION
6,433
4,775
703
VIC
PRICE
-$58.50
DEMAND VS GENERATION
3,289
4,457
-416
TAS
PRICE
-$31.89
DEMAND VS GENERATION
1,146
730
Price QLD NSW SA VIC TAS
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The King island lunacy is relying on the Diesel generator for about 80% of their power this Friday evening.
And this is supposed to be in the roaring forties, so running Australia on the TOXIC W & S rubbish is just another SUPER expensive sick joke.
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
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60% diesel at 10am Saturday morning EST and 1% solar and 19% wind. What a farce.
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A place like King Island (how long before they change the name) is one of the few places where toxic wind, solar and Big Batteries might conceivably work. But the experiment has been done and the conclusion is that it doesn’t.
King and Flinders Islands represent the true state of unreliables with no coal, gas or (gasp) nuclear power stations and no interconnectors to proper power stations elsewhere.
That is representative of what Australia will become, but we won’t be allowed a proper power station like the islands who can fall back to diesel.
With no sun and no wind and flat batteries, Australia goes dark.
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“….. it has fooled our Minister for Energy. “My first thought was a bit derogatory but these politicians, like Bowen, are setting themselves up for their post political careers. They want their pensions as well as board positions from the companies they do favours for. As The Who sang, ‘We won’t be fooled again.’
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Anyone could fool Chris Bowen. His brain is a vacuum. He failed with immigration under Rudd, he failed as Treasurer under Bill Shorten and he failed energy under Albanese. There is a pattern. It was immigration, or rather uncontrolled aliens that sunk Rudd/Gillard. It was Bowens attack on superannuants that sank Shorten and it will be energy that sinks Albanese. Maybe Bowen is a Liberal plant. More likely it shows that the ALP is so devoid of common sense that they allow such a destructive clown to stay in government.
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Government: salesforce for con:
– the recent ‘ýou-can’t-sue-us-when-it-kills-you’ ‘medical’ intervention;
– the ongoing it’ll never rain again / you’ll all be drowned fairy-tale;
– obey or be debanked.
Grim. Very grim.
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AGAIN here’s the Relative change in co2 emissions for the OECD countries and the developing NON OECD countries.
By comparison the OECD is the flat line at the bottom and just read the OWI Data percentage difference for both groups.
Does anyone think we should be WASTING any more time and money on trying to lower our OECD co2 emissions now?
Don’t forget that China, India, Asia and Africa etc will still be increasing co2 emissions for decades into the future.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?stackMode=relative&country=OECD+%28GCP%29~Non-OECD+%28GCP%29
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Australia (and the UK) both contribute about 1% to global CO2 emmisions.
So if our governments continue on their current agenda to take our countries back to a pre-industrialisation existance then the overall effect globally, on CO2, will be zilch ! (0.04% or 421 ppm CO2 x 1% = ~ 0.0004% CO2 or 4 ppm)
Economic suicide enacted by morons ?
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Please explain the 1% contribution if the CSIRO state that Australia and the Southern Hemisphere are both CO2 sinks.
Is the 1% what we generate from all sources but forgetting the sinks that absorb it (plus some from other countries/sources?
Both sides of the ledger are important
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We often tend to forget the biggest emitter of CO2 which at 97% is nature . Humans only contribute 3% towards what ends up as 0.04% of the atmosphere . Don’t forget Henry’s law about CO2 absorption into the oceans ( hint : The CO2 content of the atmosphere is controlled by ocean temperature , NOT human emissions ) . But then it is water vapor that is the major green house gas , just have a look at the absorption graph over the LWIR band for both gasses . So we contribute about 1% of 3% of what ends up as 0.04% of the atmosphere , which in turn is a nothingburger compared to water vapor !
Even if CO2 did matter – The southern hemisphere is a sink for CO2 so if there is a problem , it is not our problem :
Every 6 months China adds the equivalent of Australia’s total coal generation so if CO2 did matter , that’s where they should be looking .
But they don’t !
Blackout Bowen is often referred to as a clown but he is not that smart – he is Australia’s only full time professional DUNCE !
The main Stream Media in the western world is no longer fit for purpose , otherwise we wouldn’t be in this mess .
Economic suicide enacted by morons ? Yes EXACTLY !
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Yes Steve as you described Australia’s contribution to the world’s increase in CO2 emissions is a mere 4 ppm in 250 years since the Industrial Revolution.
If successful Bowen would reduce these emissions by 34% taking our contribution from 4 to 2.64 ppm or from 421 to 418 ppm.
It would be obvious to any normal person that this tiny change could not possibly impact the world’s climate or temperature. Bowen needs to justify his $50 – $100 billion plan to achieve this almost unmeasurable outcome which assumes the nonsense that both natural and man-made emissions can be controlled by Bowen.
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You didn’t need to have evidence that the projections used to claim that renewables are cheaper. Every example where they are being brought in prices have gone up. What they have done by making the assumptions they have is the same as if they said the transmission lines are not a cost ( if provided by the government but you pay for it with extra taxes) . However once you get the private sector involved and promise a return on investment that is either paid by the users in higher costs or paid by the user in higher taxes , they are all additions to the cost comparator. Hundreds of billions are missing from the equation of one energy form whilst the one say nuclear uses the existing poles and wires.
I didn’t need to know that the energy model was dodgy. It was an assumption sceptics can make when dealing with climate alarmists. This is what happens when governments employ fanatics in critical political and bureaucratic roles.
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Zigmaster >”You didn’t need to have evidence that the projections used to claim that renewables are cheaper. Every example where they are being brought in prices have gone up.”
And dispatch, except for hydro, will always remain unpredictable:
NatGas, Coal, Nuclear Power Save Largest US Grid As Emergency Alert Declared For Second Day
“Where is the power generation from renewable sources? It appears that fossil fuels and nuclear power generation are doing the heavy lifting to ensure the grid doesn’t collapse.”
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There is a little bit different game being played in the USA.
The difference is that you have Blue states (controlled by the Democratic Party) that want to force the Red States (Controlled by Republicans) to pay for the cost of the grid upgrades to accommodate green energy. The WSJ had an article on this earlier this week.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chuck-schumer-ferc-green-energy-red-states-reliable-transmission-458c0337?st=s8og83ietlhmfp4&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
In essence, Mr. Schumer wants the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to mandate that state which don’t have green energy mandates to pay for the transmission upgrades needed for green energy in other states. And the bill for the USA could come to $2.4 Trillion.
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>”And the bill for the USA could come to $2.4 Trillion”
For what?
Biden Administration Report Accidentally Reveals Climate Change Has Little Impact on the Economy
https://mishtalk.com/economics/biden-administration-report-accidentally-reveals-climate-change-has-little-impact-on-the-economy/
Hoot of the Day Q&A
Q: How come this report has not received more media attention or coverage by the White House?
A: It does not fit the required fearmongering agenda, silly.
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Even though these aren’t audited financial statements, surely the fact that costings are involved (and hundreds of billions of dollars plus the high likelihood of economic destruction) means there must be some conformity with regular accounting practices (e.g. as defined by Australian Accounting Standards) for treatment of sunk costs?
Also, at what point does this become fraud?
Obviously the figures for infrastructure cost for unreliables are being manipulated or totally ignored to claim a much lesser cost than reality and major decisions are being made on the basis of those results. If that isn’t fraud, I don’t know what is.
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David it is like this. I have lost count of the myriad Aboriginal agencies involved in spending $31 Billion each year to not close the gap. If it were a business and the results of expenditure was so pathetic I would call in an auditor to find where the money was going and why KPI were not being met. Agencies that failed would be shut down and the money redirected to successful ones. I guess you would do the same. The CSIRO has obviously failed in its task and should be defunded. OTOH it was beneficial to Bowen that the CSIRO come up with a C**P conclusion. The Opposition should take note that the CSIRO is not a reliable nor honest agency anymore and should be closed down. At the very least they could deduct from it’s budget the billions wasted on Bowen’s green dream due to it’s false findings.
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Even assuming the lie that CO2 controls the weather as claimed was true, it would all be pointless anyway since the West, including the United States are such small contributors to atmospheric CO2 (what climate catastrophists call “carbon” (sic)) compared to China and other non-Western countries who are mostly exempt from restrictions on the production of energy.
The restrictions on energy production via restrictions on CO2 has nothing to do with weather or climate.
This is 100% about the deliberate destruction of the United States and West in general.
2020 figures for millions of tonnes CO2 emissions
1 China – 11,680.42
2 United States – 4,535.30
3 India – 2,411.73
4 Russia – 1,674.23
5 Japan – 1,061.77
6 Iran – 690.24
7 Germany – 636.88
8 South Korea – 621.47
9 Saudi Arabia – 588.81
10 Indonesia – 568.27
Ref: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/co2-emissions-by-country
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David
You forgot to add in “nature” which refuses to rein in its emissions.
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Over the last decade China +India increased their CO2 emissions by 100 times Australia’s reduction which has caused wholesale electricity prices to increase by 300%.
Econimic destruction for ZERO benefit
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Aha, now I understand how ruinables are cheaper than real power generation, how quaint.
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Apart from the fact our politicians are just puppets to the elites do they employ what any investor has to? That is environmental impact studies. Just imagine a coal mining company that just charged in and clothed itself in propaganda and said rubbish like reported above. The left would be screaming, the pollies would be passing new laws and everyone would be in an uproar. BUT “green” energy products get a pass but cannot be recycled (now arises the story of dumped blades) the lifespan and maintenance of turbines is coming under scrutiny. Solar panels are starting to pile up as they age, the planet is being furiously mined for the elements necessary for these monstrosities in place where there are no controls. Then there is the cutting down of vast areas of forest that no one else can now touch but no one challenges governments in their mad ventures. The list is almost endless. One more thing; what happens and who pays for all the old infrastructure to be removed?
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Once society gets to the level of deceit and lies Australia and much of the West now have, bigger and bigger lies have to be told to cover up the previous lies.
We are seeing such a thing now such as in Europe quoting ground temperature measurements rather than air temperature measurements or in the present case ignoring an extremely important cost element.
The lies will just keep getting bigger until they become so ridiculous that even a lot of “useful idiots of the Left” won’t believe them and/or something breaks i.e. social cohesion falls apart and civil disorder ensures because people can no longer tolerate the lies or the cost of energy
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Love the “Five Aces” image that uses spades twice. Spades are used for digging holes and the CSIRO/Bowen are certainly in one that’s getting deeper.
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In the long run ground temperatures will simply confirm the urban heat island effect. One day even the most unthinking zealot will be confronted by the realization that a bitumen road has a temperature as does irrigated lawn.
Strange days indeed. Most peculiar mama.
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Meanwhile on boiling ocean world, Concordia, Antarctica hits -83.2C, world’s provisional lowest temperature since 2017
A weather station at Concordia Research Station in Antarctica may have just registered the world’s lowest temperature in six years.
According to real-time data published by Italy’s Antarctic Meteo-Climatological Observatory, the temperature at Concordia Research Station dropped to -83.2ºC on July 25.
Would someone tell grumpy Greta to move the doom date back again. 😆
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It’s well past time that we insisted on a return to real science, real engineering, real thermodynamics, real accounting and real electrical engineering.
This business is, was, and never has been about shoveling our money from here to “their” back pockets.
It’s really about using the largest Diesel Powered Grader in the World: and that comes on a ship from Chyna.
Poor Fella My Country.
Post Script.
Please don’t feel that the elite in that large foreign nation are just picking on Australia: they treat their own population just as bad, to the point now where they’ve skimmed so much that Chynas economy is on the brink of collapse.
For the last two days off the once busy port of NovoCastria there have been no ships waiting. None.
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We have been demanding real science since the beginning in 2006 or so. It was about then that real scientists started seeing the dodgy graphs particularly MM’s hockey stick. MM like Fauci and every other leftist saboteur are still walking free and probably will not face retribution, at least not in this life.
What’s with the shipping Keith?
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The shipping, probably no big deal, but it’s unusual to get no ships two days in a row.
Just put that in for a bit of maybe later stuff.
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Aloha! I go at it from a different angle. Don’t tell us the money part, because they’re like the ccp and lie all the time. Just tell us exactly how many solar panels it will take to convert a cat5 hurricane to a cat2. How many solar and wind devices do we need to make Net Zero and save the planet? If they cannot answer that question then why waste time with the dollar part? Just STOP all renewable projects! If they do have an answer then start by calculating the cost per solar panel and wind turbine. Those should be known inputs by now. I get that the greens don’t really want to calculate the total cost of renewables, meaning eco damage to the planet and the working poor society of the third world. Green is a hazard. Just ask a greenie if they have ever visited a copper mine in Botswana! Probably a 99% chance they will say NO!
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How many cat5 storms does it take to convert solar panels to “trash”?
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Just more proof of creative accounting attached to ruinables uptake into the NEM. Mean while ludicrous promotion of same via MSM, govt & private institution’s, & uni party bureaucrat’s. Certainly a massive self sustaining fraud that can’t be questioned or halted, & absolutely no foreseeable reduction in CO2 emissions associated with these forms of ruinable energy generation. The lie/fraud behind the clean, green, cheap narrative is so main stream bs ‘must’ be accepted as fact, just like a massive Ponzi scheme. Doesn’t take much imagination to guess the parties at the top of the Ponzi pyramid! And none of them ‘as yet’ answerable to their involvement in this massively ruinable scheme, they get the Goldmine & main stream folk or serfs get the Shaft!
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Don’t just believe in miracles – depend on them –
https://avionod.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/and-then-a-miracle-happens/
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The classic Sidney Harris cartoon first published in American Scientist, Nov-Dec 1977.
Here’s another version of it:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Where-AI-stands-today-Then-a-miracle-occurs-C-Sidney-Harris-in-American-Scientist_fig2_333061528
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Speaking of lies and deception, I read an account of a first time EV owner (BYD Atto3),deciding to drive from Sydney to Byron Bay, leaving with 100% charge and planning on one stop to recharge at Port Macquarie using the vehicles expected range as a guide, 3 charging stops later he arrives at Port Mac.
With a/c on and 110kmh on the Expressway, it nobbled his expected range, lowering it by 30%.
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I was talking to a Tesla owner in Tassie. He uses his to commute daily and to go to his retreat on WEs. He also has a small tract5or to launch his yacht and a Ford Ranger to collect his fire wood. He said he was a fan but not a fanatic.
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The TOXIC W & S disasters are UNRELIABLE, have very low CAPACITY factors and are very remote and very DILUTE.
If you ADD in the thousands of extra klms of new pylons and connections you have a new environmental mess and a regular 15 to 20 year clean up and then you have to start again.
Even stupid Bob Brown howled about the impending disaster in his area of Tasmania, so we know that even a left wing loony can understand and changes to a NIMBY very quickly.
We should be using only BASE-LOAD power like COAL, Gas or Modular Nukes and ditching the TOXIC W & S disasters ASAP and just maintain the existing electricity grid.
We’d save the environment and just use the tiny EXISTING footprint of our existing power stns.
And no need to worry about having to regularly replace our clueless W & S disasters and bury the entire TOXIC mess in LANDFILL.
And the Earth would continue GREENING because of the EXTRA co2 fertiliser and the plants would have a lower requirement for rainfall as well. What a bonus and more food for us and a more prosperous future.
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Under Benito Albanese’s code of censorship how would ACMA treat this post of Jo’s and the comments?
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They will declare it non-grata in the mainstream, which is an excellent way to list all the websites we need to visit.
I’m sure someone could write a little program to gather all the websites blacklisted by the new censor plus those banned by the current ones. Add in the ones ‘fact-checked’ by those busy-body organisations who want to control what we think and you have an index to the ‘web you need to see’.
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This CSIRO report contains the means for our salvation. If we rebuild all our closed coal fired power stations, and do it before 2030, then the cost is zero. On top of that, if we stockpile a few decades worth of coal before 2030 then our electricity will be virtually free for all of those decades.
But why stop at 2030? There’s nothing magical about 2030. Get the CSIRO to update the report every decade, moving 2030 to 2040, 2050, etc, and all our electricity will be virtually free for ever.
We can get free manufacturing too, free transport, free food, free clothes, free anything else. Well done, CSIRO, you are our salvation. It’s amazing that no-one thought of this before. Actually, I think Karl Marx had ideas along these lines, maybe we should check there first and see if there is anything the CSIRO missed.
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Here’s that OWI Data graph again and this time I’ll quote their percentage increase for the Relative change for the wealthy OECD countries and the developing NON OECD countries like China, India + other Asian countries + some of Sth America, Africa etc.
All quotes are the relative change since 1850 and I’ll start at 1988. By 1988 the NON OECD had a change of 8.9 MILLION percent.
By 2021 that had increased to 21.7 MILLION percent.
The OECD countries had increased by 5.8 THOUSAND percent by 1988 and then just a small increase by 2021 to 5.9 THOUSAND percent.
AGAIN the NON OECD countries will be increasing their co2 emissions for DECADES into the future, so I’ll let everyone draw their own conclusions about their dreams of net ZERO by 2050 or 2100 or …..
BTW their graphs are active, just hold your pointer on whatever date you choose to read the percentage increase for both groups since 1850.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?stackMode=relative&country=OECD+%28GCP%29~Non-OECD+%28GCP%29
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Surely this must prove that Chris Bowen is Albanse’s useful idiot! While the idiocrity Rules we go broke.
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And who is Albanese the useful idiot of?
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WEF
60
The Australian Energy Market Operator AEMO publishes an Integrated System Plan each 2 years.
The 2020 ISP has much the same type of dodge as the CSIRO one, by sidelining large costs that should be included in the final cost of renewables electricity.
It dodges and weaves by saying that Government policy on the path to net zero governs its choice of factors to analyse. The following extracts from the 2020 ISP show this gross deficiency. (My bold near the end).
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2020-integrated-system-plan-isp
Quotes:
A policy is relevant in determining power system needs if there is either a commitment made in an international agreement or enacted in legislation in Australia, there is a regulatory obligation, there is material funding in a state or federal government budget, or otherwise if COAG has advised AEMO to incorporate the policy25. The Central scenario therefore incorporates:
• the NEM’s share of the Federal Government objective of reducing emissions by at least 26% by 2030.
….
No carbon price was used in any scenario.
……
Provided that the transmission investments are timely and kept at an efficient level, the combined supply and network investments proposed in the ISP are expected to deliver $11 billion in net benefits to the National Electricity Market (NEM).
….
Geoff S
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Just read this article, a continuation from yesterday.
Shows the reality – solar and wind are a joke, the grid’s a joke and any claims to the contrary are a joke.
NatGas, Coal, Nuclear Power Save Largest US Grid As Emergency Alert Declared For Second Day
PJM Interconnection is being saved by natural gas, coal, and nuclear power generation as temperatures surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit across the Mid-Alantic.
Where is the power generation from renewable sources? It appears that fossil fuels and nuclear power generation are doing the heavy lifting to ensure the grid doesn’t collapse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/prepare-generators-largest-us-power-grid-declares-emergency-alert-second-day
A few hot days and it all goes to hell…
The pollies and energy experts who shall not be named all run for cover…
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This is why the retail cost of electricity will continue to climb. Stupid people pushing a no-win agenda.
If you are not yet independent of the grid for your own power then you should be working on it. Grid scale weather dependent generators will always be more expensive than you can make yourself providing you own a block of land and a roof.
Recent notice for my electricity connection increases the charge by 14% to an annual cost of $592. That pays about half the cost of a household battery over the 10 year warranty period.
Grid defection is now getting more attention as utilities realise there is no benefit of scale with weather dependent generators:
https://energytransition.org/2015/06/grid-defection/
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Regardless of where/how people obtain electrical power, we will all pay for the folly of chasing windmills and RTS. Going “off-grid” is a very costly affair ($30-$50 thousand?) and while there may be some lower power charges it will take several years (10-15) to amortise the initial outlay by which time the replacement of equipment will need to be factored in. In the meantime, adherents will also contribute to the National Grid scheme by way of GST and other taxes some of which haven’t been thought of yet. Proving there truly is “no such thing as a free lunch”
40
But 32% of Australian households already have solar panels and this is a real example of sunk costs. The next investment decision is to go for a battery or not to become independent of the grid. The big carrot there is the connection fee, which will cover about half the cost of a subsidised battery at the present charge. But the connection fee is where the big hike in prices will occur because it gets harder for the poles and wires providers to spread their growing costs over lower electricity consumption.
One aspect of the present grid is that it is nominally privately owned. Aside from the government sanctioned theft through the RET, the governments do not have a lot of finances locked up in the grid. There is no reason to use general tax revenue to bail out the businesses investing in assets that will not provide a return
China now has a couple of SMRs operating. Australia will probably need to go to this technology for the grid to survive in roughly its present form. There is still very little prospect of a new coal fired power station.
40
Perhaps a bit O/T but should we not be viewing the refusal of our major banks to finance things like coal mines as blatant political interference – in much the same way as Coutts de-banking of Nigel Farage?
120
CSIRO.
Used to work for them. Reputational changes have happened.
Today Victoria’s former chief medical officer through the pandemic officially finishes. Earlier reports have him headed for CSIRO to manage a sort of enforcement of green policies function.
….
Next, a new energy head is about to start work at CSIRO. Read about this avid green who dreams impossible dreams here:
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/news/2023/may/csiro-appoints-new-energy-director
….
Dr Larry Marshall will complete his third and final term as Chief Executive of CSIRO on 30 June 2023. He has served as CSIRO’s Chief Executive since January 2015.
A new overall chief of CSIRO is appointed. He is from medical science, don’t know about him.
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/husic/media-releases/new-csiro-chief-executive-appointed
…
At least we have no mention of shrill teal-like women on a mission.
Geoff S.
100
Strangely, the new energy head appears to be a white, middle aged male and therefore unlikely to be a diversity or quota hire. He may actually have been appointed on perceived merit. That’s good news.
Sadly, it doesn’t mean he won’t be a green zealot however. In fact, if he wasn’t, he wouldn’t have been gifted that job.
50
From Walter and Eliza Hall. Suspect fully on board with Covid however. Dunno if he knows anything about energy, will want money for mRNA vaccines, to sell to the world. Not a great improvement IMHO.
20
H P,
Did you know that the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute, globally renowned for excellence, was established with money from investments in the Mt Morgan Gold/copper mine just west of Rockhampton?
Our company managed this mine for a few years. I used to enjoy visits there, sitting in the library of the Directors’ quarters reading the early history of the mine.
BTW, the oil company BP, British Petroleum, was also built from Mt Morgan money. It was for some years the world’s biggest gold mine.
Here is some reading: Geoff S
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/19/listen-to-hard-science-reject-pop-science-to-lessen-global-catastrophe-risk/
00
https://gcaptain.com/salvors-briefly-board-burning-fremantle-highway-in-north-sea/
Never mind “sunk costs” This latest marine incident plus the initial cost of EVs, depreciation, relatively short life cycle compared to liquid fuel vehicles, replacement battery and insurance costs must surely pose a problem for governments intent on forcing the population to adopt and adapt to electrification may well sink the whole concept!
50
So, we got a group of government activist scientists and asked them to do some hard nosed economic analysis. Hardly surprising then that they produced shoddy economic analysis is it? Somewhere deep in the report there is a variability in their prediction of costs of about 30%. Wow. Plus they use inflated capacity factors for wind- they quote 37%, when Australia’s CF is lucky to be 27->30%. But even accepting “sunk costs” as a legitimate accounting procedure in this case, I believe there is reduced allowance for maintenance of solar/wind as well. They haven’t factored in solar panel and wind turbine blade replacement at probably 15 years.
70
The long emergency:
https://youtu.be/EAyLyTcAzDI?si=lnams5uEI-WDZr4b
Well not that long. Only 5 years left.😎
40
It sounds like Klaus, the real life James Bond villian, has a plan.
40
Of course we’re all meant to fall for the con that our electricity bills will gradually get cheaper on the renewables fed grid. The energy companies are too used to exorbitant profit margins wrung from our wallets to let that happen.
40
Albo commits $2 Billion in the budget to make Australia the “Saudi Arabia of Green Hydrogen”
The first green hydrogen project bites the dust!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/27/aussie-green-hydrogen-project-scrapped-not-viable/
In the early 1970s as a Chemical Engineering student I gave a presentation on the coming “Hydrogen Economy” (and was mocked by my professor who had worked in the fossil fuel industry).
My professor was right – 50 years later and there is still no “Hydrogen Economy”!
90
There will never be a Hydrogen Economy because it isn’t sustainable. H2 requires more energy than it delivers.
H2 is 1/3 the energy, by volume, as methane / Nat Gas. So we need 3 times more pipelines to carry the volume.
A good primer on the H2 economy is: https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/hyd_economy_bossel_eliasson.pdf
Clearly, it shows the inefficiency of a H2 cycle. H2 is only efficient as a means to produce Ammonia or synthetic liquid hydrocarbons, ie synfuels. And these options are only viable in the absence of methane and oil.
It is precisely because each Carbon atom carries 2, 3 or 4 hydrogen atoms (multiple or single chain molecules) that makes hydrocarbons more efficient than H2 alone. No amount of propaganda will change the physical chemistry. CH2, CH3,radicals and CH4 chain structures are better carriers of H than H2.
50
thats a good explanation Lance.
30
Why didn’t they work that obvious point out the first time? Because these projects are just about headlines and hype. People get all convinced by their announcement that the future is here. Than the project quietly gets cancelled.
30
What people read-
“Global boiling: Sydney due for lethal heat
As climate change worsens, summer temperatures will rise from 26.4 to 29 degrees by 2100, a climate similar to PNG’s.”
but the SMH toss in a few wriggle words-
“Global boiling: Sydney hasn’t done enough to prepare for lethal heat
It’s possible that without emission cuts and as climate change worsens, summer temperatures could rise from 26.4 to 29 degrees by 2100, a climate similar to PNG’s.”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/painting-roads-longer-library-operating-hours-and-planting-trees-sydney-hasn-t-done-enough-to-prepare-for-heat-20230719-p5dpf7.html
Apparently putting the lives of thousands at risk, I suppose they mean there will be no electricity for air conditioners..
60
Is this the heat that will kill most plants? If it gets to 29, similar to PNG, I would assume plants that grow in PNG will probably like it in Sydney.
But no, I was told recently that most plants will die. What an absurd proposition! But apparently a mainstream vision.
40
The Massive Cost Of Taking Down Wind Turbines
In Australia, landowners may be saddled with this gargantuan expense:
Andrew Dyer, the country’s energy infrastructure commissioner says he has seen several “questionable agreements” between renewable companies and landholders that could leave the latter saddled with millions of dollars in decommissioning bills.
“Under the law, it will default to the landlord,” Mr. Dyer told a Senate Estimates hearing on May 23.
According to Dyer,
“It costs more money to pull a turbine down than it does to put it up… The costs of pulling down a turbine may exceed the revenue you get for 25 years.”
Twenty-five years is the expected lifespan of a wind turbine, although it is unlikely that people will still tolerate their presence a quarter century from now.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/who-wears-the-cost-of-taking-down-wind-turbines-once-they-expire-5428759
Who cares? Not the WEF. Another nail in the farmers coffin.
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I recall somebody saying that it would 80% of the installation cost to remove each wind turbine. And your link doesn’t expand on its initial headline, just says that it may cost more.
40
Back in the day, farmers would quickly and easily remove most anything … with dynamite of course. It would all be sorted out over a single weekend.
These days, most of the huge cost of these projects is filling in enough forms to clear the regulatory barriers. Hmmmm, if ChatGPT can write Environmental Impact Statements then I might see a great future for AI.
60
How is Snowy 2 going? Is that boring machine still stuck?
30
Yes Florence is still stuck. They are drilling and grouting in front of the cutting head to stabilise the ground.
Snowy 2 released this, yesterday, 28 July 2023,
https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/snowy-2-0-project-update-july-2023/
Notice that they don’t mention the recalcitrant “Florence”.
If Florence was advancing they would be touting that news.
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Did the creative accounting really fool the energy minister or is he in on the scam ?.
50
I’m guessing that he never read any of the 72 pages, just received a summary from his staff.
30
Labor hiding the true cost of a multi-billion-dollar project? Like the NDIS, or NBN? Say it ain’t so!
10