JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Iran-now some 90 million people- is not to be underestimated. It has always been a powerful and dominant force in the Middle east, first as the mighty Persian empire which evolved into the Parthian empire. The Parthians defeated a large force sent by Rome under the Control of Croesus purportedly the richest person in the Roman World. Some stories say he was seized by the Parthians when his Roman force was routed and had molten gold poured down his throat in ironic reference to his wealth.
https://www.badancient.com/claims/crassus-gold-poured-down-throat/
Modern day Iran has been bombed many times and indeed the US and Israel claimed their nuclear ambitions had been destroyed in the bombing a couple of years ago.
Like another Roman enemy-Carthage-however, who were defeated following the third Punic war after Hanibal’s military excursions into Italy over the less snowy than today Alps- had secretly built up another fleet after their first one was destroyed following their defeats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Carthage_(Third_Punic_War)
Judging by the photos of vast numbers of drones and the ballistic missiles raining down on US allies in the Gulf area, the Iranians have secretly rebuilt their forces and weaponry and hidden them, either in tunnels or in the mountains. The war is certainly not over and won, as Mr Trump claims. He has stirred up a hornets nest and must now finish the job, otherwise an enraged Iran will continue to sponsor Terrorism in the area and emerge strengthened. They are likely close to gaining nuclear weapons and a fanatical death cult exemplified by the Mullahs is not an entity we should want to have them.
The robust Iranian attacks on other states should have been predictable, as should the closing of the Hormuz straits, with a subsequent reduction in oil and a surge in prices. Is there a coherent plan? Is it being made up as it goes along?
The US allies were not consulted, had no weapons in place nor apparently asked for any advice despite having close contacts and bases in the region. On the Wests side for a successful conclusion is that a large proportion of the Iranian population are sick of the medieval mullahs. I was there in the early 70’s and met the Shah and his young son, now seen as a possible figurehead. The Shah was certainly no Angel, but the country had very few outward signs of oppressive Religion with Women dressing in a western fashion in major cities.
However there are still millions of well armed religious fanatics who will stop at nothing to control the population, so whether the ordinary people will dare to rise up again is anyone’s guess. Other groups, like the Kurds, might be persuaded to join in any fight but they are not well organised. Let’s hope its over in the Wests favour very shortly as otherwise the economic price is going to be painful and the threat of ever wider terrorism very real
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All that is known to the Americans and Trump. But there is worse.
Christians may believe in a final catalysmic event, a great reckoning, but are in no hurry to bring it about. And the possibility of nuclear war has stopped all but proxy wars for 80 years. Even Kim Jong Il has reservtions about ending his own life. But religious fanatic Shiite mullahs with infinite power and nuclear armed ICBMs are another matter. They would have no moral qualms about killing everyone, as if that has not been obvious.
“Shiite Islam, particularly the Twelver branch which is the state religion of Iran, places a central, messianic emphasis on the end times”
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Key aspects of Twelver Shia Islam include:
The Twelve Imams: Twelvers believe the Imams are infallible, possess esoteric knowledge of the Qur’an, and are the spiritual and political successors to Muhammad.
Occultation (Ghaybah): The 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, is believed to have gone into “major occultation” in 941 CE and is still alive, set to return at the end of time as the Mahdi.
Core Beliefs: Twelvers emphasize Imamate (belief in the divine leaders) as a core tenet, alongside Unity of God, Prophethood, Justice of God, and the Day of Judgment.
Catholics believe in the infallibility of the pope. But the Twelvers in Iran also have a real interest in the immediate end of the world. It is extremely dangerous to have a fanatical infallible Twelver Imam in charge of nuclear armed missiles.
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The Iran regime are a murderous fanatical death cult driven by religion. A very dangerous entity which has few aims other than converting others to their faith and who are well organised and have numerous dedicated followers. A very dangerous combination. Especially as they can stand on the windpipe of the Worlds economy via their control of the straits of Hormuz.
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And through their proxies the Houthis in Yemen, strangle the red sea.
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tonyb,
Hardly the first. Hamas, obviously. And Jo has been known to use very similar terms to describe the greens and their fantasy of a global warming apocalypse.
There’s cause for optimism in that. The thing with death cults is that their leaders *never* actually believe the story. Some of the foot soldiers might be fanatics but, to the ones in command, it’s just their way to hold onto power. We saw that with Hamas. We see it all the time with the greens.
So cheer up: they fear death more than they let on.
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No, the endless chain of suicidal attacks, bombers, people shouting Allah Akhbar across the planet would completely disagree. These people really believe that they will be rewarded in the afterlife. The Greens do not engage in suicide attacks and murder. The threat posed by extremist fanatical Islam is very real.
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TdeF,
I don’t see what this complete disagreement is. I said the fanatics are among the footsoldiers. You listed examples.
The ones telling the zealots to “seek paradise” are in no hurry themseves, typically living in comfortable lodgings in Qatar and the like.
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Many of those suicide bombers are children. Never a cleric!
Says it all really.
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Last time I used the word “cult” for the anti-bacon, pro 9yo bride mob, it got edited.
Looks like the mood and awareness of reality has changed. 😎
Trump has massively underestimated his enemy, thinking this is a “decapitation and everyone goes away quietly” strike over in no time.
The reality he’s entered and exacerbated a religious war, and like all religions, there’s no tolerance of non believers. Every strike consolidates the hatred and desire for revenge.
So Napoleon-complex Macron sends a few warships to help out the USA. No oil for you!
No oil for anyone aligned with the USA.
Word is that eastern countries are rethinking their relationship with the USA and looking to work together. The energy equivalent of BRICS.
Petro-dollar to become Petro-Yuan maybe.
Suddenly Ukraine is forgotten, like Covid, a means to an end that didn’t work. Now it’s Iraq/n.
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The problem with that logic is that countries other than the US need the oil. China is completely and desperately dependent on Iranian oil. And Iran and the other Gulf states need the cash.
If Iran loses Kharg island, they are out of business, nearly permanently. 90% of their oil goes through an island 2km x 7km near Basra at the top of the gulf. All undersea pipelines. Then they are flat broke and all wars require vast amounts of cash. The threat to destroy Kharg has been made. And credible. ‘for fun’. Iran lacks the resources to reciprocate. Saudi and others including Russia/Azerbijain/Chechnya/America could ramp up oil output to compensate. And the resurrection of Venezuela has already started, doubling oil production.
No one knew what would happen with the decapitation of the Islamic leadership. It may become a military dictatorship, but without the mad mullahs. Like most Arab states, a monarchy again. Pahlavi may be welcomed back into something closer to Jordan. All the world knew is that nuclear ICBMs could not be left in the hands of religious fanatics with death wish for Armageddon, people who for 50 years have threatened to kill everyone they know. There was no choice.
What comes next is unknown, but the pressure is being maintained for Iran to reenter the 18th century from the 7th.
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I could certainly see an international coalition occupying the straits of Hormuz on BOTH sides and the entrance to the Red sea. Missiles and drones change the equation, but so does air superiority and instant retaliation.
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‘Kpler calculates that 17% of Chinese oil imports in 2025 came from Iran and Venezuela.’
China can sit this out.
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I think the lesson of this war is Iran, China and Russia have totally underestimated the US. They have goaded the USA with impunity, Attacked it around the world and thought they confronted a nation too comfortable in the peace it had won with the Berlin Wall collapse. Putin went to war. The USA tut tutted. China threatens the South China Sea nations and US aircraft and ships get assailed by kamikaze pilots and Chinese ships with minimal reaction.
The lesson of the bombing of the nuclear sites went over the heads of them all. They had a President unlike the three previous ones that had been bullied without resistance. Obama tried appeasement. They all continued to defy Trump as just another supine US President that had no values he thought worth fighting for. Even assembling the armada didn’t make Iran et all think again.
Now we see the rage of the clerics in Iran with destruction of their nation. State sanctioned, death of their leaders. Now their source of wealth very much on the line and they know half their own people despise them so security is not guaranteed. China suddenly has its oil supply cut off and Russia has its source of arms for the Ukraine war restricted.
Whatever follows this war, the world will not be the same. NATO has been forced to front up even if in name only. Britain, Germany and Australia have been found wanting by their supposed white knight that they have fed off for security for 50years. I think those Virginia Class subs are gone or will never be in Australia’s hands even if harboured here. The one big worry is if the surprise warfare promised by Iran is really the use of dirty bombs. Cluster bombs are already in the mix. This would place this war on another footing altogether.
The Middle East only respects power with strength. Should the USA completely subdue Iran, as big as it is, then Trump’s Abraham accords will spread through most of the region where it is apparent peace with wealth eg UAE, Oman, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and maybe even Qatar, has become more appreciated than continual wars. Call it the second Enlightenment!
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‘Call it the second Enlightenment!’
No, the US is using a sledge hammer to crack a nut. Poor tactics.
Its more like a Crusade and with Armageddon in the wings.
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Armageddon?
Named after a “lost” city “somewhere”..
Well, it has been found not far from Haifa in Israel and is being excavated and studied as we type.
(Tel), meaning “hill”, Megiddo, is the place.
https://www.travelingisrael.com/sightsinisrael/tel-megiddo/
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The Shia and Sunni, as do all Muslims, follow the same Quran, the verses or suras of which are immutable. Islam is a supremacist political religion whose goal is the ummah or worldwide Islam under the sharia. The West just won’t face that fact. they keep trying to make accommodations in the forlorn hope that everything will come to an amicable conclusion.
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“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”
― Winston S. Churchill
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Most US “Allies” including Australia, Canada and the UK have far Left, fundamentally anti-American, anti-TRUMP, anti-Western, pro-Islamist regimes and simply can’t be trusted despite pretences as members of the Western Alliance. They would have tipped off the enemy. TRUMP was absolutely correct not to consult or trust them.
Albanese, Carney and Starmer are all hated by their own people but they know where their future voting blocs are…hence them all importing Labor or equivalent voters for life no matter how much violence and social discohesion that brings
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Tipped of the enemy? What? They are US aLlies who have had thousands of troops killed when fighting with the US.
They had no warning of this war and would have suggested a proper plan was put in place before starting it, whilst warning of the certainty of Iranian attacks on other states and the closing of hormuz with very disturbing consequences.
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Were you on vacation with no news links? Or maybe thought that Obama and Biden still were in charge?
Trump repeatedly gave a timeline for the Iran leaders to get serious and had the Navy start a second carrier group. A typical carrier strike group consists of about eight ships, including one aircraft carrier, two guided missile cruisers, and two destroyers or frigates. The aircraft carrier usually carries around 65 to 70 aircraft. He knew how long it would take for the USS Gerald Ford to go from the Caribbean to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Any ally with a military analyst would know to expect an attack on Iran’s defenses shortly after the arrival. A slang term is well known of Trump: FAFO.
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“They had no warning of this war and would have suggested a proper plan was put in place before starting it …”
Yep, and it would have been impossible to get them to agree on a plan. The meetings, discussions and war gaming would have spanned years, right up to the moment when the Mullahs launched their first nuclear ICBMs.
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Of course, you are correct and that is why you received so many red thumbs. US and Israel act symbiotically due to…. ( won’t go there). Frankly, if we entertained all of the US war follies we would be in a dangerous state. They coerce us as much as China does and should hop back in their box a bit and do what Trump said in the first place. Blow these never to be nuclear submarines as well.
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Interesting logic. Simon, Peter Fitzroy, and Gee Aye must be correct a lot.
There’s no doubt the US has had war follies over the years. The jury is still out on this one. If nothing changes in Iran, and if they’re still close to being nuclear capable, then a folly it is.
As for notifying US allies in the region. What’s the chances of it being kept a secret if Arab states had been informed? Almost zero.
Maybe it’s deliberate so they can be peaceful neighbours going forward. As opposed to being the neighbours who knew and didn’t say anything.
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“They are US aLlies who have had thousands of troops killed when fighting with the US.”: They are not and did not. They are very different to their predessors who were and did.
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Has anyone seen these photos? I have only seen 2 photos of successful drone attacks by Iran, each one a single drone.
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I’ve seen plenty of missiles hitting Israel, but just like Western propaganda, you can’t bet your life on them being true. I’m not familiar enough with cities in Israel to recognise them. The anti-Western propaganda is just the same stuff with the names switched around, everyone is killing babies and eating them.
It will be a mess even after Trump declares victory,the anti-West propaganda claims the hundreds of thousands of people in the streets were chanting Allah Akbar & Death to America, the pro-West propaganda claims the same people where trying to pull down the Iranian Govt.
This is America’s last chance to control the world’s oil and destroy China’s rise to dominance. If they don’t have an absolute win here and destroy the BRICS, the death of the $US will follow. He was a fool to start it.
“You have such a deeply ingrained anti-American, anti-West hatred I must ask “Why are you here”? I hope you don’t live in my neighbourhood.”
Sorry Hanrahan, we likely live on the same block in completely different dimensions. If a car drove down the road between us we’d probably see two completely different things! Maybe Vietnam soured me on the “America is the good guy and saviour of the world” theme! To me they are just a bunch of thugs who have ruled the world with an iron fist to make sure printing dollars kept them dominant. The rest of the West are just their dogs at heel doing what they’re told. I don’t mind living in the West, but I hate the lies and deceit of the leaders, the blind belief in the propaganda that we are somehow the golden angels that only ever defend ourselves.
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Israel only intercepts missiles which are heading to populated areas.
If a missile is judged to hit an open area its pointless wasting an interceptor on it.
Obviously some get through – no missile defence is perfect – and kill people, but very few.
The latest trend is for Iran to be launching cluster munitions, which are released at 40km altitude and have a vast random spread. Fortunately they appear to have very fewer ICBM’s left with which to launch them.
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And the random unguided cluster munitions are tiny by comparison, lethal only by luck. Bomblets from 40km up.
Otherwise they make potholes.
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“This is America’s last chance to control the world’s oil and destroy China’s rise to dominance. If they don’t have an absolute win here and destroy the BRICS, the death of the $US will follow. He was a fool to start it.”
Unless you didn’t see a nuclear-armed Iranian government as a threat, then I assume you had a better plan than what Trump’s doing? If you can suggest a credible alternative that isn’t based on wishful thinking, then could you please share it with us?
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A nuclear armed country run by god like infallible mullahs who have an institutional death wish and have threatened to destroy America (Satan) and Israel(little Satan) for 50 years. They have no moral problem killing everyone, even slaughtering their own people. It is agreed that they just murdered 15,000 of their own people for protesting. How bad does it have to get? It’s not like the Mullahs have not made it very clear.
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We have plenty of people locally who have escaped from the area who have been terrified by the numerous drone strikes, which is why they got out
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Ok,
Do you have a photo off vast numbers of drones?
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Reality isn’t defined by what you see or choose to see.
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All this is known, TdeF, yet the 3 major branches along with the horde of whacky offshoot cults spawned from the loins of Abram – son of a Babylonian idol maker who went by the name of Terah (sound familiar?) – and his women slaves, all reek of the same self-important self-destructive sand-madness: do as my desert war god says or the whole house comes down. After that, paradise, an imaginary plot of fertile land away with the faeries in the sky.
They needed to swim in the ocean a little more often.
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” do as my desert war god says or the whole house comes down. After that, paradise, an imaginary plot of fertile land away with the faeries in the sky.”
That sounds remarkably like Christianity..
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Very similar.
Mohammad claimed to be another prophet of Jehovah/YHWH.
My usual practice is to verify my claims before I post them. ChatGPT refused to fact check them for me. Here’s what I have been told, but am unable to confirm or debunk:
The differences include Islam’s approval of child brides, authorisation of perjury, approval of beheading prisoners of war, and rape of female prisoners, endorsement of slavery, death penalty for apostates, and declaration that the struggle for righteousness for all believers includes holy war against all non-Muslims.
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Re the Roman defeat by the Parthians – the Roman general responsible was Marcus Licinius Crassus. Crassus was in a political struggle for preeminence with fellow pollies Julius Caesar and Gnarus Pompeius (Pompey) .but was not a general of the stature of his political rivals. He grossly underestimated the power of the Parthians and paid the price – an unusual defeat for the Roman Republic at that time in its history. The defeat was especially sad as he was accompanied by his two sons Marcus and Publius who served as his legates., and they also died with him. Such was the nexus between political and military prowess in this period of Roman Republican history.
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That was all in my original links. The point being that the persian and parthians ran very powerful empires and modern day Iran is no pushover.
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What with Ukraine and now Iran it seems that drones of varying complexity will become a major form of warfare.
Whether they largely replace conventional armies and weapons, time will tell.
What is certain is that relying on defensive missiles each costing millions to bring down a drone costing some thousands is not going to be effective.
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That’s why Israel developed the Iron Beam, to address the hugely asymmetric nature of cheap rockets and other terrorist weapons vs very expensive interceptors and the fact that it’s easy to overwhelm expensive defences with cheap terrorist weapons.
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There is no telling what will come of 40kw lasers used as distance weapons. They could cut inches of solid steel, cut tanks in half and utter devastation on thin skinned missiles. The problems are diffusion and refraction, not power and flight time is zero. Armies are meaningless against such lasers.
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You’d be amazed what a coat of chrome plating can do to an incoming laser..
Even a layer of asbestos.
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Fuel price in the USA is currently averaging about $3.30 per gallon. So Trump did plan well; last term and this term. US also has control of the world’s largest oil reserve.
To build what the clerics have built underground requires income. That has been from oil. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is an own goal because it cuts off their income. There is no road transport from Russia and the northern ports have next to no shipping traffic. USA controls the skies over Iran. Any exposed launch site for drones and missiles is immediately wiped out. So IRGC have a brief window to get off a few missiles and drones then go bak into hiding. Trump has encouraged other countries to provide their oil tankers with escorts through the Strait. He only took out the Kharg Island defences, not the oil facilities. He would probably be happy for China to get free oil from Kharg Island.
UK and Australia are infested with UN stooges who have been thoroughly scammed by their Climate Change™ garbage. Trump gave a warning at the UN assembly about the stupidity of listening to the UN fairy tale. Many did not listen.
In looking back on Trump’s comments from decades ago, I am coming to the view that one of his driving ambitions in securing the presidency was to wipe out radical islam.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjt7TO3Ptys
He has the firm view US was treated badly by radical islam almost 50 years back.
China will be hurting most from the current oil supply situation. But they have as many cars coal fired as oil fired so that eases the pain a little. And Trump has permitted Russian oil to flow again.
I expect history will treat Trump well. He is leaving a mighty imprint. There is one part of California where he is loved:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5qKyPkF5YI
Trump has demonstrated capacity to suffer fools but not endlessly. Both Starmer and Sleezy should be fired. They are useless as leaders. Trump displays admiration for Netanyahu. No doubt they have the common objective of wiping out radical islam. That has to be good for the world.
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Starmer gets very unfavourable responses in a new poll
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2182091/keir-starmer-faces-crisis-trust-mandelson
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Albanese (Australia), Carney (Canada) and Starmer are all hated by their own people. But they manage to get elected and remain in power… All are considered the worst leaders their countries have ever had.
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Since at least 1970s the rot set in and the leftists (predominantly Marxist socialism) have infiltrated United Nations, public education, public services and even welfare providers and parliamentarians.
Gradually (as a Fabian Marxist saying goes – the inevitably of gradualness) since late 1800s in England and ups and downs ever since to try and achieve objectives of their new world order people have been captured in mind and dependence on governments.
Well over-staffed public services particularly administration, union strongholds public service employee members. Centrelink clients other than age pensioners and genuinely unable to work people, and so on. The most recent example here is the NDIS now being exposed as cost to budget approached total budgeted defence expenditure and now acknowledged poorly designed system of Federal-State responsibilities. The most NDIS accredited service providers are in the Sydney Western Suburbs where ASIO, AFP and NSW Police have many under surveillance for crime and potential terrorism planning.
We have reached the tipping point and far left political domination in future increasing.
Unless we wake up and vote against it.
I worry that indoctrination (dumbing down of people) has reached the point of no recovery.
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The dominance of Labor parties in the Commonwealth is not from increased popularity. Quite the opposite. Elbow Akhbar was elected with a lower vote than Bill Shorten. It is more the destruction of conservative parties from within with the likes of Malcolm Turnbull and the black hand, to the left of the communists. This was demonsrated dramatically with the party based removal of the very popular Tony Abbott. Not by the people, but by party members who waited their time to bring in Green socialism. And in the UK where the Tories disintegrated with Boris. Brexit was brought in even though most Tories did not want it. And both Labor and Tories have done their best to destroy it.
In the US Trump was betrayed by his own people, McConnell, Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney who stonewalled Trump until the midterms. As for the extra 20% of Democrat voters who vanished at the last election, there is no explanation. The whiteanting of Conservatives has been most effective in the Western world. We saw the utter disconnect between the people and the politicians, corporations, media, public service in the NO vote. The current Australia government is probably the most reviled in Australian history. Like Starmer’s government.
What we are seeing with One Nation and Reform is the return of the 66% of the people who hate both Labor and the Tories, both Labor here and the Liberals. And in all countries as with Donald Trump, the media hate conservatives who are labelled Fascists when Fascism was socialism and Hitler was a National Socialist.
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Following Howard 1996 to 2007 and very stable and competent leadership including cabinet ministers Dr Brendan Nelson was elected to be the new Opposition Leader, in 2008 Malcolm Turnbull defeated him after a campaign of leaking and not good opinion poll results, he was soon challenged and Abbott became Opposition Leader 2009. In 2010 the Abbott led Coalition for all intents and purposes defeated Gillard Labor (Labor had dumped PM Rudd) and forced them into an alliance including Greens to form a minority Labor Government.
With PM Rudd back (defeated PM Julia Gillard with Albanese MP at Rudd’s side during the process – but Labor say the Liberals have a problem with women?). At the 2013 election the Abbott Coalition defeated Labor in a landslide win. PM Abbott then proceeded to repair the Budget with Treasurer Hockey and they stated the independent audited 2013/14 Labor Budget had many black holes on unfunded commitments) Budget mess was considerable including under-stated deficit and debt including the unfunded budget commitments – gross combined $400 billion debt.
In 2015 Turnbull challenged again successfully and replaced PM Abbott who told media not to accept leaks especially from cabinet by anonymous sources unless the source was will to be and was named.
In 2016 Turnbull Government lost every seat Abbott Coalition gained in 2013 and ionly retained government with one new National’s seat.
By 2018 another challenge by Dutton and Morrison, PM Morrison was elected and remained PM until the 2022 election.
The (LINO) left had gained influence gradually from around 1990 but was quiet during the Howard years, apart from rumour that the founder talked the Treasurer into asking PM Howard to stand aside for him to become PM (see earlier PM Hawke Labor to Treasurer Keating – Kirribilli secret Agreement) and struck again when Dr Brendan Nelson was elected Leader of the Opposition Liberal Leader late 2007.
From Morrison 2018 the LINO left have been losing influence however after 2022 they recovered slightly. Recently 2026 the two thirds majority election of Angus Taylor (Morrison Energy Minister 2019 when the Trump US oil deal was done) became Leader of the Opposition. Now with Senator Matt Canavan Nationals Leader and Deputy Opposition Leader and a new talented Shadow Cabinet the Coalition is talking centre/ centre right Menzies Australian Liberal Party common sense and free enterprise policies, and have dumped net zero Glasgow 2021 that replaced Paris emissions 2015.
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Albanese Labor is of course far left, as compared to Labor right being centre left and as always controlled by unions that also donate funding to the Greens.
PM Albanese as a student activist and now remains a follower of the late Russian revolutionary Marxist Leon Trotsky and had close connections with far left groups including Communist Party of Australia. The best Labor Governments have been dominated by the centre left factions.
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“What we are seeing with One Nation and Reform is the return of the 66% of the people who hate both Labor and the Tories, both Labor here and the Liberals.”
The voters are to blame, they always vote for less work and more pay. The politics slides sideways to the Left in all parties, and even more promises if less work and more free money are made…
The Right screwed themselves when they chased Labor to the Left and tried to out-promise them, and deserved the years in opposition they have experienced. They should have made Capitalism a desired way of life by making it as easy as possible to start up a company, employ people, fire them and grow. That would mean firing tens of thousands of snivel servants and burning millions of pages of regulations and codes and laws.
That will be the only way back for them, but while environmentalism and cooperation mean more than competition and rewards for hard work, nothing will change!
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But the people in their usual manner, voted for endless “free” goodies under the tree.
You voted for them. Where are you now?
Are your lives better or worse than from the last election, or the one before that, or the one before that.
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President XI’s purge on corruption in China continues with the removal of numerous officials. Some say he is getting rid of possible rivals, others that corruption could destroy China.
The country has had several large sources of oil removed-from Venezuela and effectively through the blockade in the straits of Hormuz. So far they don’t seem to have reacted much. With the Wests attentions elsewhere, this would be a good time to invade Taiwan-if they had the fuel to do so.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c78xxyyqwe7o
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Long term, it seems they want to make their refineries targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ciJxwAcyb8
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That’s what Australia should have been doing – building storage – instead of throwing away vast billions of dollars on utterly useless wind, solar, Big Batteries and SH2.
The inexpensive way to build storage is to cheaply purchase retired oil tankers and moor them in a safe remote place as “floating storage units”.
They could be protected against attack by anti-missile systems like Israel’s Iron Dome and Iron Beam (Dome is available for export, Beam soon will be).
(Despite the Albanese regime’s Israel hatred – a fundamental requirement to satisfy their support base, they are still importing weapons from them including a $917 million Elbit Systems contract for turrets, sensors, helmet vision and protection systems for Australia’s Redback infantry fighting vehicle. However Australia stopped exporting military stuff to Israel, which only harms Australia but is of littie consequence to Israel.)
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Morrison Coalition Government (Angus Taylor Energy Minister) planned new oil storage when the deal was done with President Trump 2019-2020 for US oil supply future, and an order worth $94 million was placed for storage temporarily in the US. Albanese Labor from 2022 has not followed through
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Except Xi’s purges have absolutely demolished most of China’s experienced military leadership. It’s reminiscent of Stalin’s military purges, which left the Red Army with a leadership void just as WWII was kicking off. It took them years of defeats and lost territory before their new command and control had gained enough experience to start to turn the tide in 1943 with victories at Stalingrad and Kursk. It took them 5-7 years to right the ship after the purges.
I suspect a Chinese invasion of Taiwan today would go about as well for them as the 1939 Winter War in Finland went for the USSR (they got their butts handed to them by a tiny but determined adversary fighting for their homeland).
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Just read an article of one Russian prof, who laments for Khrushchev – Brezhnev decades, when a dozen of dinosaurs were in total control of everyone and everything in 250 million country. Old and super-conservative they were but they all had previous war in their bones and that kept them from doing totally crazy things.
Unlike today with a single person holding the reigns.
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Xi fate is the same as Hua Guofeng.
In the short term a Taiwan invasion is not on the cards, but a takeover of eastern Russia definitely is.
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Why cant China buy oil from the free and non invaded country of Venezuela? Are you inferring that the US is interfering in trade between other countries? heavens no, say it isnt so! not the bastion of freedom and free enterprise, I wont have it.
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China has suspended all oil exports until further notice.
Brinkmanship.
We have no jet fuel, Donnie will be under great pressure to blink first
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Here’s an example of some of the sort of misleading and deceptive nonsense bring posted on YouTube these days, disguised as an historical / architectural documentary.
It uses AI generated imagery, made to look like authentic 19th pictures, and a fabricated storyline.
The last paragraph of the description of the content says:
If you look at the channel, there is a bunch of similar fake history material. See https://youtube.com/@tartariavault
This represents one of the ways our history is being fabricated and rewritten.
I don’t understand what people get out of doing this. It’s very dishonest.
https://youtu.be/UhpsInxk5_Q
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Because YouTube pays per click.
I have irrational love for late Victorian times – from authors and painters to gigantic discoveries and civil structures (unfortunately I can only collect teaspoons) to idiotic high society dresses. Nothing better was created since then.
So I enjoyed the video, thanks.
Only objection: this work (as work it is) must be prominently marked with red letter(s), not by modest acknowledgement “AI assisted”.
60
“Because YouTube pays per click.”
Stupidity! They should pay after watching the ad, or watching to the end of a video, but won’t do that until the advertisers demand it.
“this work (as work it is) must be prominently marked with red letter(s)”
Like the ingredients list for foods, how much is real and who made it in which country.
00
I find alternative histories an interesting fantasy genre.
Its a bit like reading the different views on the current Gulf conflict.
40
Everyone knowing human nature understands that 11/12/1936 abdication was totally illogical so could’ve hardly occurred.
The King, with support of childhood mentor W. Churchill set up a new spirit of cooperation between English and German nations.
Naturally, British-German rapprochement was just a beginning of positive developments on the Continent, leading to extreme leftwing French parties losing power for generation and France joining Die EU – the most successful peaceful and prosperous 100 yeas in the history of Europe…
10
Careful Vladimir, some people don’t understand satire.
Re youtube I like viewing history, because you know you escaped those dire forecasts because you are still alive.
10
We have had this with films and books for decades. Braveheart was a load of historical nonsense but wormed its way into peoples minds as facts. Mind you with new technologies, what took the budgets of Braveheart to achieve can now be done more quickly and much more cheaply and by people with an intent to deceive
10
North Korean Star Trek.
Life aboard the USS Glorious Leader.
(Parody, humour.)
https://youtu.be/Jtgg8SUM_q8
10
ST Academy screened it’s last episode last week too.
RIP hopefully.
10
Video.
Jaimee Rogers from Sky News Australia discusses Australia’s yet-to-be fully realised fuel crisis and the massive Government incompetence which has brought us to this point.
This has been an issue for decades which all Uniparty Governments have failed to address.
At about the 4:30 mark there is a graph showing how Australia has by far the worst stockpile of all IEA (International Energy Agency) nations.
You can see the same graph at: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nickmaher1_afr-iranwar-iranwar-activity-7438365113386168320-cli9
Sky News video: https://youtu.be/1OMaHg8eZCg
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***
Without going into too much past history of police here I am aware that during the Howard Government terms 1996-1997 and Kyoto Japan COP emissions target signed 1997 the Coalition has pursued emission reduction obligation on the basis that economic prosperity must not be compromised.
It was later 2007-2013 Rudd Gillard Rudd again Labor legislated RET 32% and transition to renewable energy meaning transition away from fossil fuels. Earlier 1970-1980 green pressure based on pollution resulted in unleaded petrol and lower sulphur content diesel and related very high costs globally.
In 2014/15 the Abbott Government tried to repeal the Labor RET 32% legislation but a hostile Senate rejected the repeal bill, but did surprisingly pass the bill to ban Labor carbon tax and hidden renewable energy surcharge on electricity bills, carbon tax added 10%, renewables levy 10% hidden in Service To Property Charge on electricity bills below electricity usage charges. Thereafter the combination of States primary responsibility for electricity supply, land release, development applications and they privatised state power stations and transmission lines public assets, first tranche sold by Keneally Labor based on Carr Labor planning and followed by other states, QLD an exception and those assets are still owned by the State Government.
Turnbull Government added the legislation that imposes an emissions levy on coal and gas power stations. However, in late 2018 Dutton and Morrison challenged for the position of Prime Minister and PM Morrison was successful.
In 2019 he travelled to the USA and met with President Trump after a Washington State Dinner at the White House in honour of our PM and Mrs Morrison and then spent a weekend in private. retreat at Mar-A-Lago where AUKUS was created (agreement signed President Biden 2021 in the UK) and another deal unlimited supply of US oil (US exports more oil than Saudi Arabia and more gas than Qatar). And an immediate order worth $94 million was placed (Energy Minister Angus Taylor) with storage in the US until new storage in Australia could be let to tender and constructed. However future oil supplies welcomed by US from Australia.
After 2022 the new oil storage project was not followed through by Albanese Labor, they have not called for shipment of the oil stored in the US to meet the supply crisis underway now.
Transition away from fossil fuels climate politics !!!
*** [The above text added from Dennis’ original reply to DM’s “accidental” premature post at #6. It’s subsequent removal at DM’s request meant Dennis’ initial reply would be lost. So copied to here. – Raquel]
.
.
Oil refineries two left operating now are being taxpayer subsidised, obviously Albanese Labor are worried about public reaction if they shut down as the last four of six did 2022-2024 having warned in years earlier they had no other commercial decision based option.
During the 1996-2007 Howard terms they did and Nationals Leader, Deputy PM Anderson leading the inquiry, look into how to keep oil refineries here profitable, consider the 1975 Whitlam Labor UN Lima Protocol and the Keating Labor 1990 UN Agenda 21 – Sustainability. And then 1997 Kyoto emissions targets Howard Government after 1996 first back in government.
Coalition has tried various tactics to have more oil and gas exploration and extraction but too many red, green and black tape roadblocks, and notably State Governments with the necessary primary responsibilities.
From 2018 late Morrison Government pursued the fuel security path and secured US oil supply and a reserve stock worth $94 million with plan to build new storage here.
I think US Government pressure was applied and not only because Australia is a major private sector US investment country bit also military strategic Asia Pacific location with US Military personnel and assets here, Pine Gap NT joint US-ADF Base a vital part of US global network. And AUKUS nuclear submarine using WA RAN Base being upgraded. RAAF Tindal Base near Katherine NT aircraft runways upgraded and fuel depot storage capacity increased by Coalition. Government arrangement with US.
00
” fuel depot storage capacity increased by Coalition. Government arrangement with US.”
You can bet that fuel will not be released for the Australia public if the Yanks want it! Any time of war and we will suddenly discover it was never our fuel all along.
10
One of the kids (large family) has two cars – one diesel and one electric. The latter was bought considering roof panels as a source…
Yesterday was the first time the choice which one to use was due to necessity to save diesel – not sure if on Monday (today) they will be able to fill her up.
The winter is coming, there will be lass and less sun every day, what if the war continues another month or two?
70
How fast could wood-fired “Stanley Steamer” be prototyped?
How long would the inventor stay out of jail?
50
Australia, being a comprehensive Nanny State and “cant do” place, is a nightmare for car modifiers.
The chances of getting a new car approved would be minimal without a vast budget, as would be even replacing an ICE engine with a steam version.
50
Would the driver need a boiler ticket to drive it.
40
Probably required to join a union
30
Stanley Steamers had a fuel (kerosene) consumption of about 8 and 12 miles per US gallon and a similiar consumption of water and a thermal efficiency of 10-12% as compared to ICE cars of 25-30%.
They would be of no use in Australia as we are deprived of sources of liquid fuel. Presumably they could be modified to burn LPG but we are deprived of that as well as most gets exported at world’s cheapest prices under the 30 year contract, still running, John Howard encouraged.
90
By the way, a favourite fuel during WW2 was charcoal burner gas produced on board the vehicle.
The inventor of the road train (I forget his name) in retirement 1960s-1970s (guessing) drove a Valiant Station Wagon with charcoal burner mounted on a roof rack
50
In Australia we can’t even run power stations on coal, we are not allowed to even collect firewood in many places, so imagine trying to run a car on a charcoal gasifier. There would be those and numerous othrr hurdles. It’s just not going to happen in the Stupid Country.
60
Dennis
Some inland urban power stations were still using wood gas in the 1960’s
10
Now included as renewable, called biomass, wood chips
00
Better still a Howard Hughes favourite steam car the The Doble.
I knew a lawyer who had a collection of steam cars and one magnificent yellow and black trim Rolls-Royce style US Doble. It came from the WA Roberyt Holmes a Court collection estate sales. Much faster than similar vintage vehicles, three speed (forward-neutral-reverse) and perfect for military officers who need a fast retreat vehicle (joke).
A sedan but with sliding side windows that had to be positioned forward or rearwards to open doors.
The start up was very quick, as in several minutes as compared to much longer time for the Stanley Steamer system.
Also I met a shareholder in the Maryborough Engineering Business family name Oldes, related to US family of Oldsmobile and REO (R E Oldes) trucks.
The Maryboriugh business had been operating since early or mid 1900s and designed and built steam engines for boats and railway engines, and my contact told me about converting a Chevrolet, I think 1925 model, installing a steam engine using kerosine as fuel and very economical to run on that fuel obtaining much better miles per gallon than the original internal combustion engine.
20
That Doble originally owned by US character Howard Hughes, apparently he had more than one Doble
20
I remembered while out for coffee that the Doble I posted about suffered a major fire incident when the ignition was apparently left on when parked in a secure garage, the owner contracted Oldes Maryborough QLD to restore the steam system.
00
Wouldn’t they just pay more for power? Not sure what the problem is?
10
Or 6 or 12…
My sources say it’s going to be a major crisis, like 1973, and prolonged.
No fuels, no fertilisers, no food deliveries, no chinesium for every shop.
Everything stops.
A 6 month reserve of everything you need is essential.
Buy before the panic.
Oh, and the Hormuz/Red sea take just scratches the surface of our woes. Look north, not west. 😉
20
There are diverging views on which way this cookie is going to crumble.
So many questions; few satisfactory answers.
But plenty of potential for this to get worse :-
https://sonar21.com/category/guest-contributor/
P.S. JCII. Are we there yet, are we there yet?
11
Says the man who can’t access a basic webhost image. 😆
I’m talking preparedness not religious endtimes or such bs, not that any prophecy has EVER materialised.
12
I’m not having you on.
Today I installed the 5000 litre diesel tank, which brings total storage to 10,000 litres.
Now I just have to get the diesel to fill it.
So that would run the factory for three months.
But I’ ve been researching a wood-fired hot water furnace and a large insulated hot water reservoir so that I can just use the diesel for peaking and recovery if necessary.
Do I need to look at putting a Nissan leaf motor on one of the old Leyland tractors and getting a couple of saddle batteries?
Look into your crystal ball, and see what else I need to do for sustainable agriculture in the coming years.
🙂
10
Oh , and I’ve already got the Lugols Solution, which is useful anyway.
10
‘Look north, not west.’
China will use soft power to dominate the globe, nothing to fear there.
10
North refers to other critical supply chains, although everyone’s focussing on Hormuz…
10
Okay.
00
What I’m reading is suggesting critical shortages of fertiliser , fuel , and food subsequently.
Too much of that would produce societal collapse in several places.
I sell food product from one end of Godzone to the other, through stupormarkets principally.
That chain could break down, so we are scoping a farm shop, the farm being within cycling distance of the city.Electric bikes and scooters abound, so the distribution problem could be handed off to the consumers. In that event only the local population would be served with the various farm products.
Licensed mobile abbatoirs are a thing now: just a pre- slaughter vet inspection is required, and health inspection.
But that is real SHTF scenario ; also advantageous from a gross margin point of view.
00
OZ would be self-sufficient in meat , fish , eggs , dairy and fruit wouldn’t it?
What else do you need?
10
This what I dont get, the everything stops logic.
80% of the worlds oil production is unaffected. A lot of LNG exists outside Qatar. Humans are adaptable.
What is happening in the 80%? what can be wound up? what existing projects can be expedited? What happens when Russia suddenly becomes socially acceptable again?
Totally agree there will be pain , but I dont see the world stopping.
50
Sounds like the situation is being “covidised” – l.e.do as you are told by the Podium of Truth.
Conform or be cast out.
10
“My sources”
Your sauces have been saying a lot for quite some years, but none has come to pass yet… Lets just put it all in with Russia, a 5-day military operation taking 5years so far.
“If one looks behind the curtain of Western propaganda, one finds a picture that could not be more alarming for Israelis and Americans. While the attacks on Iran continue, costing the lives of thousands of civilians, the Iranian people show not the slightest sign of giving up or turning against their own government.”
Ah, but looking behind the curtain of Western propaganda is so difficult for those immersed in it- After all, Iran is a desert heap run by suicidal insane Mullahs who will nuke everyone who doesn’t bow to them..
02
So Bowen, supported by the Coalition will “water down” petrol to maintain stocks.
How do they do his? Do we need to pay more for higher octane so as not to damage our car engines?
30
Unless it was like Sasol in South Africa, where it took less than a year for the fuel to react with the aluminium in certain makes of carburettors and ruin them, you probably won’t know what damage it does to your engine until the next election cycle, which is just what they want!
I don’t know what they are planning apart from high-sulphur diesel, but increasing the alcohol in petrol to 15% would be likely. Modern ECUs could adjust to run ‘OK’ on that, and the water it absorbs won’t rust the fuel tanks out as they are plastic these days.
20
My fibreglass half cabin trailer boat, 130 HP Honda outboard motor and 160 litre fuel petrol tank stainless steel built in years ago was topped up wth 90 litres of E10 Ethanol-Petrol blend in error, I was tired after three days fishing. It sat in the shed for a few winter months and when I next launched it it started but very rough idle and then would not increase revs without cutting out.
The boat engine service centre explained that all the rubber/plastic seals and hoses were in poor condition caused by Ethanol in fuel, the single point carburettor style injection system electric fuel pump as well. The cost to replace fuel pump and seals was expensive and a lesson learnt.
I had previously used Premium Unleaded and an additive to extend fuel storage life when not being used for some time.
40
Not sure how they will water it down.
Maybe with ethanol, taxpayer subsidised under the Howard plan?
Or maybe with toluene, up to 30%? (Howard increased the tax on toluene, back in the day, to prevent it being used as a petrol diluent.)
The so-called high sulphur fuel was what we used until December last year and was perfectly acceptable until the Albanese regime arbitrarily decide to impose a 10ppm limit on sulphur in fuels. Our tax-payer subsidised refineries can’t make such fuel so they export this now-non-compliant fuel to less stupid countries and we import the more expensive low sulphur stuff.
90
Fact not divulged by Bowen is that the “dirty diesel” is the same chemical composition and sulphur content we have been using up until 2025 when the Clean Air Act required even lower sulphur content.
The Minister cannot help himself from talking misleading climate action politics.
Same as his claim that Australia receives the dirty engine vehicles others reject, and ignoring Australia New Zealand Standard and registration regulations on emissions control, example my Isuzu purchased new late 2017 meets Euro 5 Standard adopted as ANZ Standard.
70
The term dirty fuel is another leftist climate fairy tale, the fuel is what we have used until 2025 Clean Air Act requirements switched to lower again sulphur content in diesel.
50
FWIW – for the “watching menu”
“Looks like we have another military guy with good analysis (not A.I.Slop propaganda) reporting on the Iran war. “Afterburn Defense”. He reports on the new precision missile in the HIMARS system, and that the Army is now sinking ships AND A SUBMARINE!”
https://youtu.be/6dMaKZ_8CuE
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2026/03/08/w-o-o-d-8-march-2026-global-shit-show-in-ot/#comment-181137
10
Chiefio is generally very good, but another “Team America” gootube channel is not particularly useful.
Try Gold and Geopolitics on substack for a much closer to reality take on Iran.
Simplicious on substack also has a reasonable take, although he’s better on Ukraine.
Moon of Alabama has a varied crowd, you have to wade through a lot of dross for the nuggets of wisdom.
20
Professor Mearsheimer also has a page on Substack.
With links to his most recent media interviews, with a brief written intro to explain the topics covered.
And dissenting comments from users are tolerated.
10
I just look at the other videos down the right-hand side and decide from the overall outlook as to how biased the main one is. Youtube group them all together, and that page is solidly Pro-American propaganda.
01
FWIW – if you are contemplating a swap to Linux. Chiefio has just bought an Asus with Linux installed
“I’ll take a look. That would be helpful. So far I just patiently wait and eventually it does a software reset of some kind and presents a login screen (not the usual boot up stuff, just swaps to login – I’m thinking it’s a SystemD (mented) brain fart of some kind.”
“I’ll check out the link … This ASUS was the cheapest Linux Laptop on Amazon, so I expected it to be problematic in some way… but NOT by “freeze & restart” – that was always the Microsoft turf…
I think I’m going to slowly convert my desktop machines over to BSD. With Linux getting more flaky and capriciously changing too rapidly for stability, I think it’s time.
I’ve re-organized my Lab, so can now work in it more effectively. (Still recovering from that lightning outage blowing out gear). So finally “building for final stability” and not just “coping to have something now” – like buying the cheapest Linux laptop on Amazon in a hurry…
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2026/03/08/w-o-o-d-8-march-2026-global-shit-show-in-ot/#comment-181137
And the next one
10
I have to admit that after converting a flight sim computer at the local museum from Win 10 to 11, then using an updated version of the flight sim with a different controller, I now have a very stable system that so far hasn’t required the regular disk re-mastering.
10
“With Linux getting more flaky and capriciously changing too rapidly for stability, I think it’s time”
Based on what? His single anecdotal experience of one type of Linux with Asus? Talk about a generalization.
10
FWIW – more “Nut Zero”
Germany
“150,000 industrial jobs to be lost this year! 270,000 since 2018”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/03/11/destructive-green-new-deal-german-energy-and-metal-group-warns-of-drastic-crisis/
30
And
“Guardian: Net Zero would be Less Expensive than One Persian Gulf Oil Crisis”
“My biggest problem with the report is it is light on detail. I delved into the charts and numbers spreadsheet, and from a quick glance it looks like they haven’t shown any of their working out – its all just precalculated numbers.
In my opinion, in the absence of detailed calculations, the conclusion are absurd. And the document admits lots of uncertainty – “Although there is a high degree of uncertainty around future costs, there is some research to suggest these cost pressures may ease in the medium to long term.49 Additionally, opportunities for cost reduction through innovation, economies of scale and learning-by-doing remain, reflected in our assumed learning rates.“
In addition, the failure of the report to show how energy storage is supposed to work in a future of intermittent power supplies, and how much it will cost, in my opinion reduces the quality of the report to political fluff – because the cost of energy storage required to support the UK during prolonged 9 day wind droughts such as happened in 2018 would be prohibitive.”
More at
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/03/12/guardian-net-zero-would-be-less-expensive-than-one-persian-gulf-oil-crisis/
60
The three-drawer filing cabinet the left side uses;
Lies
Damn Lies
Statistics
70
The Climate Change Committee report highlights how the UK’s death spiral is accompanied by a Greek Chorus of ‘independent statutory bodies’. The Chair of the CCC is one Nigel Topping “appointed by the UK Prime Minister as UN Climate Change High
Level Champion for COP26” – so clearly impeccably independent.
The main factors leading to this Nirvana are:
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Supplementary-analysis-of-the-Seventh-Carbon-Budget-7439yr0294u43ur034r02i.pdf
Huge, long-dated health benefits arising from more exercise (walking/cycling), better diets (lower fast food miles), and clean air – saving unquantifiable billions;
Less energy wasted by ‘more efficient renewable technologies’ (without worrying about the energy embodied in the low/density technologies themselves);
Renewables technologies benefiting from accelerated ‘learning rates’ – with resulting falling capex and opex;
Gas generators become much more expensive due to supply chain constraints;
Transport infrastructure transfers seamlessly to EV use at no additional cost;
The UK apparently ceases to manufacture steel and cement;
The private sector is standing by waiting to pour investment into renewables on the signal that government is truly committed to Net Zero;
Oh.
And a 3.5% discount rate applied to the future benefits of the ‘Balanced Pathway’, and 1.5% (yes, one point five pussent) to the future financial benefits of improved health. Probably bad news for the private sector waiting for a 15%+ ROI on its £100bn of investments.
Top Men.
60
FWIW
“New Theory Emerges: Was the Supreme Leader Set up by a Leaker Named… Tucker Carlson?”
https://pjmedia.com/scott-pinsker/2026/03/15/new-theory-emerges-was-the-supreme-leader-set-up-by-a-leaker-named-tucker-carlson-n4950670
30
FWIW
“Fun Fact: There are now more muslims just in England (4m), than there are ethnically Irish in the whole of Ireland (3.9m).”
https://x.com/KingBobIIV/status/2032745761905979410
Via https://instapundit.com/782688/#disqus_thread
30
Monday funny: the Ayatollah’s heavenly reward
https://imgbox.com/vwLUOmHi
50
Just in case you are contemplating a BYD vehicle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6z9O2YsocI
30
This is an outstanding interview where Ben Shapiro gives his view on Trump’s Iranian war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hqJGXmZOcc
Arguably a biased host but still commentary I agree with.
It is presently Trump’s war. Last week it was Netanyahu’s war that Trump got roped into. I wonder if Starmer and Sleezy will want to own the end of cleric rule in Iran when history gets rewritten.
Israel is now getting targeting information from the streets in Iran to target IRGC troops. This could avoid the need for ground troops. Get local intelligence, send in drone to take out anyone with a weapon. It is new warfare by remote control. Aided by Musk’s Starlink. Every Irnian can be an IDF intelligence officer. The power of the people aided by modern technology.
I don’t think this opportunity for precision remote warfare has been fully leveraged yet. It has been the things of movies but getting close to real now.
With friendly locals and a plethora of remote controlled robots, a ground war may not require actual boots on the ground.
130
FWIW
“When Vigorous Assertions are Their Native Language”
“Quote of the Day
Peace is possible: through superior firepower and willingness to use it in the most devastating and efficient (and sparing) way achievable.
We should try that.
Sarah H. Hoyt
March 6, 2026
All We Are Saying Is Give Peas A Chance – According To Hoyt ”
“I never understood people who insist that in order to have peace we needed to disarm. Or the variation where they thought the Mutually Assured Destruction policy was insane. Whenever I tried to engage with people like this, they would either “prove their point” via vigorous assertion (raising their voice and repeating themselves) or go silent. I took the silent treatment as they had not really thought it through and were attempting to engage their brain when I asked them to explain how this worked. I was fine with this. But the vigorous assertion type annoys me. They are all emotion without no data or logic. Those types are a disgrace to humanity and a significant number of animal species.”
More there before concluding
“You can only communicate with these in their native language such that they truly understand. And there are very few more vigorous assertions they understand better than bullets and bombs.”
https://blog.joehuffman.org/2026/03/14/when-vigorous-assertions-are-their-native-language/
Via https://instapundit.com/782708/#disqus_thread
40
While we’re all a bit worried about fuel and refining in Australia right now, just remember that this is a worldwide issue. It’s not even new—it was talked about back when Russia invaded Ukraine. Even in the US, refining capacity, especially on the west coast, has dropped by half in the last ten years, possibly because electric vehicles were expected to become more popular. Oil and refining companies were pretty realistic. They weren’t sure about investing in new refineries because electric vehicles (EVs) might take over and reduce the need for regular fuels. Also, many of the smaller, older refineries have been closed down, which is definitely happened in Australia. But, there’s always a catch! It feels like we’re stuck in a bit of a stalemate. A lot of car companies that were excited about the rise of EVs have now changed their minds. They’ve written off $100 billion recently. It’s tough to know what’s going to happen because there are so many people online who are really into electric vehicles. You’d have to be pretty brave to guess what’s coming next.
30
Australia wants the oil but won’t help secure it.
What a disgrace.
42
RAN large warships are equipped with the very accurate and effective Phalanx rapid fire gun auto targeting technology and able to track incoming attackers … drones, low flying aircraft and small vessels.
The Phalanx latest system replaced the earlier installed model a few years ago, and new missile technology;
* Air Warfare Destroyers not too old x 3
* Heavy Class Frigate ageing x 8
And the largest of all amphibious landing ships with flight deck now used for attack and general purpose helicopters carried on board, and a lot of other military assets for Army etc have more than one Phalanx system.
10
A mine hunter would probably be more useful but we only have 2 in commission!
20
Looking at RAN procurement recently I read that the new direction is equipment and technologies far superior to the mine hunters and because new mines technology and detection is much more complicated
00
Albozo says ‘we can’t give a ship’.
20
‘What a disgrace.’
Japan has also given the finger to the idea, citing regional security issues.
10
ANYONE who believes America’s news that they control the skies and the seas of Iran would willingly give a ship or two, it stands to reason…
Perfectly safe, Iran is crushed, Iran is helpless, Iran is destroyed… why, the tankers hardly need an escort at all!
Oh wait…
00
Trump ended another war!
50
FWIW
“HE REALLY WAS A DREADFUL, DESTRUCTIVE PERSON”
“Paul Ehrlich was genuinely one of the worst people of the 20th century. Everything he stood for was wrong; everything he advocated for was evil.”
https://x.com/yuanyi_z/status/2033350954653745652
Paul Ehrlich dies at 93
https://x.com/derektmuller/status/2033273682714390931
“Normally I’m a de mortuis nil nisi bonum kinda guy, but in this case I will make an exception.”
https://instapundit.com/782863/#disqus_thread
So a chance for another theory to move in
80
Some interesting comments in this one.
Has Trump successfully destroyed Israel, and at the same time united the Muslim world against the U.S/U.K./ AUS. world ( assuming AUKUS is still on ), and enacted the departure of the oil thieves from the M.E.?
https://sonar21.com/us-air-defense-thaad-and-patriot-pac3-missiles-are-kaput-or-soon-will-be/
01
Sobering numbers. As I say in my first post Iran’s strength and resilience has been underestimated.
All this hatred of the West and The “Great Satan” is fuelled by Religious fanatics wielding powerful weaponry. It may be unpopular here to say so, but the allies should have been consulted. Even our idiot Starmer offered to send an Airctaft carrier and minesweepers to the area a week ago but was dismissed by Trump who said the war had already been won. It hasn’t. The effects of choking off the oil supply will play out over the next few weeks unless Iran can be decisively defeated in short order.
12
Starmer was Very Very Unhelpful and denied the US the use of Diego Garcia.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVfyiuTj-_W/?igsh=MWw3bDBmZjlvMTNiMA==
Britain should get on board quickly. But what can you offer? QE and POW barely fit for duty.
40
“The effects of choking off the oil supply will play out over the next few weeks unless Iran can be decisively defeated in short order.”
Or the US leaves and business can resume at the level it was before they lit the fuse
00
That’s unlikely.. Trump is getting apoplectic about the bad press, ie anything that’s not approved Pentagon Propaganda, but he should remember a sword cuts both ways and his ‘news’ is all lies too. He wants to ‘bad news press’ arrested and jailed, another extension of free speech these days..
So the two carrier groups are so far away from Iran that they need all those air tankers to allow the bombers to get in range, which suggests Iran has some anti-ship capacity that the Yanks don’t want to try out.
Simplicious is giving him a hard time, well deserved as he seems absolutely hopeless as a wartime leader, but there is still no hint of which way it will all play out. Simplicious reckons win or lose Iran will be unchanged, but America can only lose prestige.
” Trump is faced with the mother of all sunk-cost fallacies for another important reason: If he were to pull out now, Iran would gain an historic symbol of deterrence against the US. It would expose the US as a paper tiger, which will have generational repercussions: a grand showcase on the world stage of the diminishment of the US’s most hallowed tool of imperial power—its mighty naval forces.”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/frustrated-by-failure-an-unhinged
31
Well maybe!
Iran’s missile fire rate has collapsed by 92%: What comes next? – analysis
Either Iran has run out of missiles and drones, or most of their launchers have been destroyed, or both!
https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-889435
50
Jerusalem Post? Well, that’s sure to give an unbiased opinion…
10
Every publication has its bias one way or another. The question is, what motivates a narrative or makes it worth not presenting the info accurately.
Sure, morale of the people could be a motivation. Or demoralising the opposition.
But really there’s not a whole lot to be gained for the Jerusalem Post to be writing that Iran’s missile rate is down 92% if that’s not the case.
The Wall Street Journal reported a fall of 95% the same day, and the New York Post reported 96% a day later.
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Or the back of AD means you no longer need saturation strikes. Israeli press have been ludicrously report the destruction of an ever increasing % of launchers, when in reality they have no idea. The propaganda washes in and out on both sides.
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FWIW
“WHEN I THINK OF THE OSCARS, I THINK OF A BUNCH OF HARVEY WEINSTEIN AND JEFFREY EPSTEIN SYCOPHANTS TRYING TO PRETEND TO MORAL SUPERIORITY:”
More at https://instapundit.com/782868/#disqus_thread
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