JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Greetings from lovely Cyprus! It’s great to be back. We love Cyprus and the Cypriots.
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My second Mum was a Cypriot. A lovely, gentle lady who loved to feed me too much Greek food.
Happy Mother’s Day to all those mothers out there.
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We’ve met so many lovely people in just a few days.
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Hi, Annie. I’ve watched a few videos on Cyprus and I’ve decided to try it out next year. I’m thinking of staying in Paphos and catching a bus daily to the mountains or beaches. Any tips?
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We did that a couple of years ago, staying in a very nice hotel on Poseidonos Avenue – the ‘Ivi Mare by Louis Hotel’. Very nice then – & whilst I have no reason to think standards have slipped, do check recent reviews.
We used the local buses for Paphos, but also booked several tours through the hotel [IIRC].
One – ‘Taste of Cyprus’ was very good indeed [food based]; the others were also good or very good – including one – an all-dayer – to the ‘Other Half’ of Cyprus [the Turkish part].
We were so impressed with our holiday that we have certainly considered going back [most unusual!].
Auto
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Thanks Auto
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Hi DD. We usually stay in the mountains, having hired a small car to get about. Most of our time is spent revisiting old haunts and, especially, the people associated with them. We did once hire a villa in Pomos, in the north of the Greek Cypriot part. We are not generally beach people but always enjoy a visit to the Kyrenia bar at Avdimou, to the west of Limassol and the Episkopi cantonment (British Sovereign Base Area) where we eat squid, chips and salad! We visit Kakopetria down in the Solea Valley where a very imaginative building, now known as The Mill, was constructed. It was formerly known as The Maryland at the Mill. The visionary chap, John, who accomplished all this started out with a small cafe (The Maryland) in the centre of the town where our boys loved the tame sparrow. Their restaurant provides amazing trout. Too much to describe really but we are some oldies who have come to Cyprus many times since 1966. We lived here twice and visited afterwards whenever we could.
We plan to revisit the Troodos Geopark, situated within the old asbestos mine at Amiandos. The revegetation there is quite amazing. There are quite a few plants and creatures unique to Cyprus and the Troodos mountains. It still fascinates me!
I fear I haven’t been too helpful for a basic holiday description
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There are plenty of signs of past civilisations here, as an important crossroads in this part of the world. Too many to list really; Paphos, Episkopi area with Kourion.
There’s the Kykko Monastery…on the way there you might spot the Cypriot moufflon.
Best wishes for your visit if you go ahead.
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You can have an industrial economy, or Net Zero, but nor both.
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“Net Zero” is certainly achievable. It just requires a dramatic and “unprecedented” lowering of the standard of living of non-Elites to Stone Age levels. People of the Palaeolithic era (Stone Age) did indeed lead a Net Zero lifestyle.
Australia’s Labor Government is leading the world in lowering the standard of living of all non-Elite Australians.
It’s something all Labor-voting Australia’s should be proud of.
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I wonder why they think living standards will recover.
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America’s Largest Grid Operator Warns Of Summer Power Shortages
by Tyler Durden Sunday, May 11, 2025
When America’s largest power grid operator warns of “growing risks” of summer power shortages, people pay attention—especially now, after witnessing Spain’s brief brush with net-zero collapse, when its failing green energy grid triggered the worst blackout in a generation.
PJM Interconnection, the largest power grid operator in the U.S., issued a warning Friday that extreme heat this summer could collide with record electricity demand, potentially triggering disruptions
“PJM continues to voice concerns about the supply and demand imbalance driven by generator retirements and the slow build of new resources in the face of accelerating demand growth.”
PJM’s warning about potential summer shortfalls is a direct consequence of aggressive net-zero and green energy policies, which have destabilized power grids and driven prices higher—particularly in Mid-Atlantic states governed by far-left lawmakers.
It’s now up to the Trump administration to push for the restoration of reliable fossil fuel generation to reestablish grid stability (some good news so far). A fragile power grid isn’t just an infrastructure issue—it’s a national security threat. Those who undermined the nation’s grid with green agendas to force grids to retire stable power production for unreliable power generation with Chinese solar panels must be held accountable.
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Texas Bill Would Require Solar Power Plants to Have Gas and Coal Backup
A bill working its way through the Texas legislature has caused some double takes with language that requires solar plants to provide power in the dark.
State bill S.B. 715 passed the Senate this week, and if adopted by the Texas house it would require any renewable power providers to buy backup power, typically from coal or gas plants, the Hill reported.
Texas consultant and energy expert Doug Lewin wrote in his analysis of the legislation that the measure would require solar plants to buy backup power to “match their output at night — a time when no one expects them to produce energy and when demand is typically at its lowest anyway.”
Double takes aside, the legislation is part of three Republican bills advancing through the state legislature that could offset Texas’ green energy progress and give fossil fuels an advantage in the state’s energy market, Reason reported. Texas generates the most renewable energy in the nation.
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No generator should be permitted to connect unless they can guarantee on-demand power at 95% availability or better. There should e escalating penalty and reward for availability around a figure like 95%.
This Texas bill should be the model for everywhere else.
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I’d be happy if they were forced to provide dispatchable power to MATCH the demand curve, on request.
In other words, IF the nighttime demand was 25% of the evening peak, and lunchtime was 50% of the evening peak, then I would more than happily allow them to supply, (at lunchtime), 50% of the amount they supplied into the previous evenings peak period.
Let’s see if they are viable on the rules that align with the grid’s requirements. The same rules that all reliable generators have to play with.
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Britain could face months-long blackouts because of net zero
Grid operator has raised concerns that the switch from dependable gas to intermittent wind and solar power will ‘reduce network stability’
Ed Miliband’s net zero push risks leaving Britain increasingly vulnerable to a Spanish-style blackout, official reports have warned.
The grid operator has raised concerns that the switch from dependable gas to intermittent wind and solar power would “reduce network stability” and said the cost to taxpayers of funding measures to prevent the system crashing was set to “increase significantly” to £1 billion a year.
Meanwhile, the global energy watchdog has sounded the alarm over the “premature retirement” of gas power plants “without adequate replacements”.
It can also be revealed that Government officials have admitted it would take Britain “several months” to fully recover from a nationwide electricity outage.
Is net zero making us poorer?
Yes 96%
No 4%
Total votes: 17,096
Should the 2050 net zero target be scrapped?
Yes 95%
No 5%
Total votes: 43,983
Big companies are now increasingly installing their own gas-fuelled electricity generators amid concerns over the reliability of the electricity grid. Major suppliers have reported a surge in requests from businesses, including data centres, wanting their own on-site power plants.
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Big companies are now increasingly installing their own gas-fuelled electricity generators amid concerns over the reliability of the electricity grid. Major suppliers have reported a surge in requests from businesses, including data centres, wanting their own on-site power plants.
This 20kVA, 415 Volt, 3 Phase Generac Home Backup Gas generator is an affordable standby generator that offers protection during an outage.
On Sale!
$11,218.90
$9,999.00 inc GST
Connected to your existing LP or Natural gas fuel supply, it kicks in within seconds of sensing power loss—automatically (when used with automatic switch) —and runs for as long as necessary until utility power returns.
100 Amp Generac Transfer Switch (SY000A00117-GG)
$1,865.33 inc GST
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Did you know Net Zero has it’s own theme song?
https://va.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_svdsjo1Nzu1yzbs45.mp4
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That’s a great version!
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You could also buy a Victron inverter, (say 8kW), and a small battery bank of say 20kWHr.
Connect the AC input of the Victron to the incoming mains and the essential items to outlet one of the inverter, non critical to outlet two.
In normal operation, the unit is capable of allowing the mains to run via the unit directly into the house. During this time, the inbuilt battery charger keeps your batteries at 100%.
IF the mains go out, the AC input falls to zero, at this stage the inverter kicks in, providing 230Vac to the items connected to the AC one outlet. Non-essential items go without power.
All up cost, around $18k, plus installation.
https://www.victronenergy.com/inverters-chargers/multiplus-ii
And of course. The smart people have deleted the incoming mains, upped the battery a little and added solar.
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I forgot to mention that when the mains comes back on, the unit switches back to mains operation and battery charging.
A smart person could use a simple time clock to switch off the mains during the peak billing period.
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Seriously? We went nearly three weeks without any sun in the “sunny” tropics this year.
It is a pipe dream to think you can go offline without diesel back up but if you are in the ‘burbs that would need to be effectively silenced. It is one thing for the neighbour to run a noisy generator once or twice in a decade, you don’t get upset. But running for hours regularly? You would be ringing the council.
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I’m off grid. No connection to the outside world.
I have a petrol generator, it hasn’t been used for the house in over three years.
I also have about 8kW of solar panels and a demand of around 6kWHr per day when we’re not doing the washing. Gas cooking is the big saving.
It can be done, if you wanted it.
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Mr. Ian: “It can be done” times 6,000,000,000 people? It can’t be done where folks actually live in neighborhoods. You do know that, don’t you? Or are you that secluded?
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Bring it on. It means revolt and guarantees Farage as next PM.
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Video:
Simon of the History Debunked YouTube channel speculates about how far ordinary Britons can be pushed by the lunacy of their recent Governments. (Under 4 mins.)
https://youtu.be/MwD9iqSsS3o
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We just saw recently how far people can be pushed and not upend the applecart, it’s going to take a lot more pain before we see any pushback.
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Congratulations Australia.
Total Government debt now over $2.088 trillion (federal, state and local) .
And it’s going up faster than ever with absolutely no limit in sight and with a mandate by the Sheeple to keep spending like crazy to pay for all the “free stuff” the Sheeple demanded and voted for.
See pseudo real-time debt clock at:
http://australiandebtclock.com.au/
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Yes, and that over 3 Trillion South Pacific Peso Superannuation honey pot looks a very tempting a target for any Guv’ment to get their hands on.
All they have to do is to legislate that one third of Super has to be invested in Australian Guv’ment Bonds and there they have a solution to halve the Debt. The poor dud Punters get to take on the crappy Bonds.
Then the Future Fund can be got at.
All along with increasing and inventing other taxes/fees/surcharges, etc.
Easy peasy to be in Guv’ment.
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Don’t forget the ability to tax unrealised gains.
That alone should take money out of the system and place it squarely in the government’s hands, ready to be pi&&ed against the wall. Just like the last lot we gave them.
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The words haven’t passed their lips but an inheritance tax must surely be on the table. is there a better way of eating the rich?
Premier Joh quashed it in Qld. Come back Joh! All is forgiven.
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The Pentagon has announced a June 6 deadline for the exit of all transgenders from the US military.
Many people who had previously been denied entry to the military for extremely minor medical issues might wonder how they didn’t get in with their issues but how these others got in with theirs.
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I recently saw am amateur radio call sign and it turned out to be from the Prince Edward Islands which are sub-Antarctic islands that are a possession of South Africa about 1769km SE of Port Elizabeth in South Africa. Legally they are part of the City of Cape Town.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Islands?wprov=sfla1
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I get SPAM emails from all over the world. It’s almost like you’ve gone back to the pre-industrial world, using amateur radio for communications. What next, string and can?
Come on David, get with the 20th century…..
/s if you hadn’t noticed. We’ll be looking for people like you to tell us about WW3 when the internet goes down and the lights flicker and die. Then again, those lights could be Bowen’d.
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Eng_Ian:
You might like https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/
I’m a power engineer. The Iberian grid collapse makes me very afraid for Britain
MAY 10, 2025
and some of the comments about personal precautions.
Strangely some people aren’t convinced that the Government (who know nothing about electricity) nor by the pronouncements by the BBC and certain Research establishment (who know nothing about electricity) nor by the Greenies (who know nothing about electricity).
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Thanks for the link. I hadnt realized before that although the UK is well connected to Europe they are HVDC links that dont help on the stability front.
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With all these DC links being incorporated, most often with ground returns rather than cable(s), I wonder how they are going with corrosion.
I remember, many years ago now, building a steel wharf and jetty, they had induced current corrosion protection. It worked by applying DC to the steel, which was all welded together, end to end, and having numerous earthing points embedded along the length of the steelwork, deep into the seabed.
If an induced current, from the DC transmission, is also present, that must surely induce a current into the soil, probably quite low but totally inescapable.
If the transfer current is significant, as it must be near to the connections, then they either are well protected against rust, (one end), and the other end must have high corrosion rates. Based on the concept of electron donation and acceptance comparing one earthed end to the other.
Has anyone seen if these huge DC transmission lines have corrosion issues?
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DC cables can be configured as monopolar or bipolar. Monopolar configurations, with just one conductor (either positive or negative) at a high voltage, are the simplest and cheapest, but bipolar configurations provide more flexibility and reliability.
For monopolar configurations, return circuits can be through the earth, sea or a metallic return cable.
I think for earth and sea return circuits, the terminal ends are susceptible to corrosion and any areas of leakage in the main cable, of course. I would think the return pathway can also induce corrosion currents in nearby structures.
I wrote an article on undersea cables:
https://www.siliconchip.com.au/Issue/2024/December/Undersea+Communications
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I think I’ve only ever seen a SWER system once. Neutral lines are there for a reason!
Actually a few reasons…
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J C II
Re “I think I’ve only ever seen a SWER system once. ”
If you’ve driven around rural Oz you’ve been past plenty of AC SWER systems.
I’ve only heard of earthing problems with sandy soil – our transformer pole has double the usual earth plate grid.
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SWER lines are obvious when you see them. Low height single wire on poles strung sometimes quite distant from the HV circuit. Can be mistaken for a phone line.
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Rural SWER lines work well because they are AC, no corrosion. If the ground is conductive in some way, then they will work.
It could be argued that they’d work even if the ground was fully insulated, acting as a capacitor but the voltage is going to be well away from the target.
The problem I have with SWER supply lines is the variable voltage available at the end of the line. If your SWER line goes through the primary of a transformer, (at your house end), the other end of the transformer winding goes to ground. The voltage on your side of the transformer will be a proportion of the incoming, factored by the turns ratio of the transformer AND the volts per turn on the primary side.
IF the ground is really good due to a recent rain event, then the typical 3kV line voltage will be almost 100% on the transformer windings, establishing the maximum voltage per turn and hence the output voltage to your house. HOWEVER, if the ground is very dry, then the grounded end of the transformer needs a higher applied voltage to induce the current to flow in the return path. This means that there is LESS voltage across the Tx and hence less at your house, (on the secondary side of the TX).
SWER, cheap but not necessarily good, (and of course some are auto-transformers, not really isolated). Maybe this is why the supply agencies are going away from these systems. It could also be because the consumer has to pay for the lines and Tx now and not the supply agency, it might all be about costs. Who’d have thunk it?
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Some people have better things to do than documenting SWER systems on holidays… 😁
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Eng_Ian
Largely outside my paddock but some user comments –
Re “the typical 3kV line voltage”
IIRC our line voltage is 19K. The SWER line is long – 100 km or so and we’re in the top half. We’ve had one over-voltage that a neighbour warned about because he’d checked so major items got turned off and no losses. It cooked some rat and tail power supply items that were replaced.
Never heard any complaints of under-voltage, even from the far end.
Initially outage due to lightning strike was a problem but now the line usually self restores. Don’t ask me how it is done.
Still handy to have a back-up gen set though.
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For the non-electrical educated: SWER (Single Wire, Earth Return)
Not the typical Active, Neutral and Earth.
For a SWER line the circuit is completed by returning through the earth/ground.
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More on SWER and how much there is in Australia in comments here
https://www.eng-tips.com/threads/overhead-swer-lines.135319/
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Never heard of SWER before but that may explain the weird setup I’d noticed on the road between Wiseman’s Ferry and St Albans.
Not a good road to string wires up on. Falling rocks and trees would take a heavy toll.
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Re the over voltage – it was quite a while ago so this is IIRC –
As I remember the voltage got to around 260 volt or so and a voltage controller going ack willie was mentioned
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Weight of spinning armatures has a unique quality all of it’s own. Edit: [Oh dear a redundancy there]
In a previous life I used to spend the odd night in sleeping qtrs in the Moranbah substation, the hub of the Bowen Basin coal industry whose draglines played hell with grid frequency. Just outside was a “Cyclone generator” iirc. It did nothing, just spun a bluddy heavy flywheel. It helped smooth the varying demand of the draglines.
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Im bouncing off Graeme’s link, this one provides additional information on how much money Milliband proposes to pump into renewable subsidies (at the cost of UK tax payers). It’s insanity.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/miliband-plots-surge-wind-farm-120000908.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnphLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJlZGn7MBD0HnbRC8-8xwxG5tZy3FEztVY3Gy70EoNBwnU-nkILyhWaAi01g9Q7QQQAI1jyVa7duAKxeckp_DOb33zCx3lT0eN7PKLss7Lr2ZXiqYNgB4ckSncLWviW5xRBtXdWsiPq9th_9Uu4v5ZiH9Sl3svuRo3NqsILwhr9v
I don’t think most Australian tax payers realise how much of their money is going into renewable subsidies via their energy bills. Climate change catastrophe converts happily accept these subsidies as a necessary evil, whereas the average Australian may well be upset upon learning of the hidden costs within their bills. I’m willing to bet most Aussies are unaware renewable subsidies are factored into their energy bills.
If renewables were to be the best solution to the world’s energy needs, they wouldn’t require subsidies. The best industry and technology has always been self-sufficient.
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The site of the 22 Sept 1979 Vela Incident when a US surveillance satellite recorded a ‘double flash of light’ underwater offshore from the islands, supposedly (?) a South African / Israeli nuclear experiment.
With a mean midsummer temp of 7.7*C (46*F) in February, another 1.5 or even 2 mythical degrees of runaway warming would be most welcome on those inhospitable volcanic peaks.
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Interesting. I had not heard of those islands before.
Seems like they were not visited by Aubrey and Maturin!
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Master and Commander series, Jack Aubrey and Stephen Maturin.. Just finished reading Blue at the Mizzen, Peter.
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Thanks Beth.
Yes correct.
I have ‘Blue on the mizzen’ on my shelf but I have not read it yet. I will take it down and start reading right away.
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FWIW
Another day, another mRNA
“Appropos for Mother’s Day, a quiet March jab study made the rounds this week. The study, published in the Journal Vaccines, was blandly titled, “Impact of mRNA and Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccines on Ovarian Reserve.” Scoffers complained it was “only” a rat study, but it was another iron nail in mRNA’s coffin.”
“There is now conclusive evidence of harm, even if not conclusive proof. And the evidence is strong, consistent, biologically credible, and peer-reviewed.
This study suggests the FDA skipped a critical step: before mass deployment, this kind of reproductive impact should have been studied in depth. Instead, it’s only being belatedly noticed by independent researchers after the needled horse is out of the barn. More research in human women is urgently needed— not to create panic, but to finally take the question seriously.”
More at
https://open.substack.com/pub/coffeeandcovid/p/mrna-mayhem-saturday-may-10-2025?
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The Big Lie
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/09/the-graph-that-lied/
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Given that the HADCRUT temperature record starts at 1855 and is considered by Climate Scientists as the most accurate, yet the first 3 years the Southern Hemisphere record is from One Thermometer in (what is now) Indonesia, there may be some truth in the title.
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Talking about the reliability of the 1800s temperature series, one must not forget James Glaisher FRS, meteorologist and aeronaut. Besides his Glaisher Stand invention, he was also a pioneer of high altitude meteorological observations (temperature and humidity) using hot air balloons. He and fellow aeronaut Henry Coxwell made many flights which were documented and published in his 1871 book ‘Travels in the Air.’ Hollywood made a movie (The Aeronauts) about him highlighting his most famous 1862 flight, but in typical Hollywood DEI fashion the hero of the flight, Henry Coxwell, was substituted by an attractive, slim, 5’3″ woman.
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FWIW
“Texas Bill Would Require Solar Power Plants to Have Gas and Coal Backup”
https://www.breitbart.com/local/2025/05/10/texas-bill-would-require-solar-power-plants-to-have-gas-and-coal-backup/
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And
Coming into fashion –
“America’s Largest Grid Operator Warns Of Summer Power Shortages”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/americas-largest-grid-operator-warns-summer-power-shortages
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FWIW – how it is done?
“VIDEO: I went to Bermuda to find the money Mark Carney hid from the CRA pic.twitter.com/3k4ZE1AglA
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) May 9, 2025 ”
And
https://x.com/RebelNewsOnline/status/1920641445456982056
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywdXZPD3x4Q
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Charted: What the World’s Paying for Eggs – Published 3 days ago on May 6, 2025
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Peter Dutton was correct!
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Not quite. $4.22 US dollars is $6.58 local here in Oz. But I still can’t find any that cheap.
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Coles – still zero stock, Woolies – low
Butchers – loads
IGA – loads
Farmgates – loads
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Fascinating.
Obviously Coles and Woolies have “got with the program”.
What could be in it for them, I wonder?
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^6 hens at home and plenty of eggs. Sell 2 dozen every week at local club for 4dollars ..
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“The outcome of this election shows us a truth the Coalition must accept: amid a cost-of-living crisis, Australians back renewables. In fact, the overall swing towards Labor in seats where anti-offshore wind campaigns were rife was greater than the overall statewide swing. ”
Either someone is deluded or there are some fascinating differences in interpreting facts…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-the-coalition-sticks-with-nuclear-the-fallout-will-be-toxic-20250505-p5lwmu.html
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The family seats Libs lost over work from home
‘Work from home’ cancellation hurt Dutton and Liberals in family zone
Voters in Queensland’s outer-suburban family zones punished Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party for an electorally toxic plan to cancel public servants’ working-from-home arrangements, driving big swings to Labor.
Analysis by The Australian shows last Saturday’s electoral rout has left the Liberals nationwide holding only eight “family zone” seats, where the percentage of voters in the key demographic aged 30 to 49 is higher than the national average.
Across the past two elections, the Liberals have surrendered two-thirds of their seats in areas where voters of prime working age are most heavily clustered, many raising children. After the 2019 election victory, the Liberals held 25 of these electorates.
Labor now holds 19 of the top 20 seats for voters aged 30 to 49 – and 56 of the 67 above the national average that have a confirmed winner from last Saturday. Two “family zone” seats, Bean and Calwell, remain in doubt.
The family rebellion against Mr Dutton and his party was strongest in his home state of Queensland, where the Coalition lost five seats to Labor – Forde, Bonner, Dickson, Petrie and Leichhardt. All five have above average numbers of voters aged 30 to 49.
The Liberal Party’s five worst primary vote swings in Queensland were also in seats with this demographic profile, reaching as high as 9.6 per cent against new candidate Jeremy Neal in Leichhardt in far north Queensland, where long-time member Warren Entsch retired, and 9 per cent against MP Ross Vasta in Bonner in Brisbane’s east.
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“Across the past two elections, the Liberals have surrendered two-thirds of their seats in areas where voters of prime working age are most heavily clustered, many raising children.”
Yes, the obvious result of pushing welfare handouts up into middle-class families.
People vote for what makes their personal life better, the ultimate failing of a failed system. No-one will ever vote for the hard times that are needed to get Australia’s Govt debt under control, our grandchildren will be paying taxes just to cover the interest on the debt, never mind the principal. ..unless the JC11 world crash hits first!
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Our grandchildren will eventually vote to default … they have the moral justification that they never asked for the debt in the first place, and besides that you said yourself people vote for what makes their lives easier.
The day it becomes more effort to service the debt than what can be squeezed out in additional debt is the day that knifing the bondholders seems like a reasonable idea.
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‘And for a Coalition still wrestling with where to go on energy policy?’
If Wilson grabs the leadership it will be coal fired energy.
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FWIW
“NOAA’s Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem”
GFS
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/10/noaas-forecast-model-has-a-drop-out-problem/
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FWIW
“What Corporate Media Isn’t Telling You About Trump’s Cuts To Decades-Old Energy Efficiency Program”
How about an Energy Star certified “gas powered alarm clock”?
“GAO noted in its report that it created a variety of “bogus” products to covertly test if it could obtain Energy Star certifications for them. GAO reported it was able to acquire Energy Star certifications for 15 of the fake products, including a gas-powered alarm clock, while two of the “bogus” products were rejected by the program and three did not receive a response.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/10/what-corporate-media-isnt-telling-you-about-trumps-cuts-to-decades-old-energy-efficiency-program/
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FOR PEOPLE WHO MISSED IT YESTERDAY
A TRIBUTE TO ANTON AND PAUL, THE PIONEERING WIND WATCHERS
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/australian-pioneer-wind-watchers
Jo brought their work to the world on this blog and The Energy Realists of Australia took up the story but officialdom took no notice at home or abroad, although we hear more about wind droughts nowadays than we did five or six years ago.
The stories of Anton and Paul need to be told so I collected them in good time so they won’t be lost.
In case you wonder why their work matters.
Recognition of wind droughts, wind lulls, or Dunkelflautes, could have averted the waste of trillions of dollars to get more expensive and less reliable power with massive damage to the planet.
Mariners and millers would have known about them for centuries, at least at the local level. https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf
Independent Australian investigators documented the impact of wind droughts on the electricity supply over a decade ago.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/the-late-discovery-of-wind-droughts
Dirt farmers are alert to the threat of rain droughts, how come the wind farmers never checked the reliability of the wind supply to become aware of wind droughts?
https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/we-have-to-talk-about-wind-droughts
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Hey thanks Rafe. I’m basically pretty much humbled really.
What I did find about those (what is now referred to as) wind droughts was really a fluke, and even though I’d been ‘doing’ work on wind generation for years, I had not really associated it with those huge hovering High Pressure weather systems, hovering over that area where two thirds of all Australian industrial wind plant Nameplate were located ….. until I looked at the Synoptic Chart ‘parked’ conveniently alongside wind generation at Andrew Miskelly’s site. So I went back and checked and, lo and behold, it was startlingly obvious. So, I wrote it up ….. without the knowledge that Paul Miskelly had, umm, ‘beaten me to it’ many years earlier, and, now in touch with Paul, it was he who explained that was the reason that Synoptic Chart was in fact parked directly alongside that daily wind generation chart. (Huh!, sometimes you wait years for an overnight revelation)
Incidentally, I’m in the process of updating that 2020 three part series, showing what has happened since 2020 till now, and that’s even more eye opening really. What I have found is that the problem is now getting worse.
We’ve been told that as Nameplate increases, then that problem is minimised ….. when in fact, the exact OPPOSITE is what is happening.
In the earlier series the losses showed a maximum loss of around 4200MW over 15 hours or so. (and here, keep in mind that’s the equivalent of the loss of eight or more of those coal fired Units, and if that happened, we’d never hear the end of it)
So, in this new updated Post, I actually used that 4200MW loss as the ….. start point. (there were many more times when it was again, similar in size and time frame to the earlier series losses, but here I just started at the previous maximum, to highlight the losses were becoming larger, and over shorter time periods)
And since 2020, there has been almost 40 occasions where wind has lost 4200MW+, sometimes in as little as five and six hours, and up to a maximum loss of 5500MW on three or four occasions. There was one occasion when power fell from the high to low of 6800MW over 26 hours with a slight rise in the middle.
So, in effect, as Nameplate increases those losses become even greater, and longer lasting. (5500MW is the loss of eleven of those coal fired Units)
Here, Angus McFarlane has produced a couple of graphs (and I’ll include those graphs in the new Post) showing exactly what all my text has explained over these seven years of daily data recording, showing it all on the one graph, and it shows the trend line, proving also that as Nameplate increases, then the losses also increase, and again, and (Huh!, silly me for not seeing it) this is a mathematical probability, and AGAIN, as Paul Miskelly (ever so patiently) explained to me, that was also what he found in his much earlier work, so basically, all I’ve done is just update all that earlier work he did on the exact same subject.
I’ve been off in WA recently, so I haven’t completed that Update, now with even more to add to it, but hopefully, it should be ready in a week or so, and Rafe, I’ll send you the link when that happens.
Again Rafe, thanks for everything you’ve done ‘in this space’.
Tony.
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Having now gone back and checked those earlier Posts, the maximum fall in power was only higher than 3000MW on three occasions, and the shortest time frame was over nine hours.
With my upcoming Update, here I’ve only concentrated on just this year, 2025, so only starting in January, so only four Months and 11 days.
And here, I’m using a start point for power loss starting at a LOW point of 3600MW, so even higher than the earlier 3400MW.
So just since January 1st, there has been 41 occasions that the power loss has been between 3600MW and a high of more than 6500MW, and the shortest time frame for a loss of these sizes was five and a half hours.
That’s 41 occasions in just 131 days, so you can see the scale of the ‘problem’, and seriously, this actually is a problem.
They’ve constructed 61 of these Industrial Wind Plants in that particular area which is the most susceptible to those weather patterns, and the situation is only getting worse.
That’s actually a failure of planning on the grand scale.
You’d think someone other than Paul Miskelly (and maybe me as well) would have ‘caught on’ by now, eh!
And they are still (seemingly cluelessly really) using ….. curtailment as the excuse, without looking at the almost blindingly obvious, and it actually IS obvious, as EVERY one of those recent 41 losses I’ve detailed are when those large High Pressure weather patterns ARE directly over that area.
Tony.
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Perhaps due to the continuing strong SAM, the WA SWIS grid had had months of little to no wind, day and night. It’s sitting at only 4% supply to the grid right now, and very often there is zero input.
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Tony
Does that mean that “ElBowen” will have to pump the wind uphill too?
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Thank you Rafe for continuing to highlight the work on wind droughts by Anton and myself.
Interesting that at comment #24 below, quite serendipitously, “Greg in NZ” sets out the symptom of one of the causes of prolonged periods of wind droughts in Australia. In my 2012 paper, I dared not use the term Indian Summer, as I thought that it might be deemed to be unscientific, but, at this time of the year, in Eastern Australia, and, in the Southern Hemisphere generally, we experience the northward transit of the Southern Hemisphere Sub-Tropical Ridge from more southern latitudes towards the Equator. The region of this Ridge tends to have a higher than normal frequency of large high-pressure systems at near-surface altitudes in the atmosphere. These regions then are characterised by extended periods of little or no wind and such regions can, at times, be geographically very large in extent. And hence, our experience of the so-called “Indian Summer”.
At such times, as I showed in the paper, wind farms in such a region produce little or no output, and the no-output extends right across the entire extent of the Eastern Australian grid, geographically, as the AEMO is proud to tell us, the largest interconnected grid on the planet.
I also stated in the paper that, under such conditions, whether one had 10 windmills, or even 100,000 windmills in such a region, the output would be zero, simply because there is no wind. I backed up that claim with reference to actual operational data recorded under those conditions.
As Rafe reports, this mechanism and others, have been well-known to meteorologists for many, many decades. I showed the impacts on overall wind farm performance. Anton has since shown that terrifying failure modes – widespread blackouts – resulting from the huge collapses in wind farm output over short periods resulting from the onset of these wind droughts are highly likely. Yet policymakers seemingly have taken no notice of our warnings.
To this mode of system failure we can add the one that is likely to result from the reduction of synchronous inertia as a proportion of total generation. We have seen the result of the latter in the recent widespread blackout in Spain and Portugal. Which mechanism will result in the first system-wide grid collapse here in Australia is a moot point: both mechanisms are leading to increased grid instability.
Yet the policymakers seem still to be totally unaware of the impending danger.
Paul Miskelly
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Here is a fascinating video from the US during WW2 about making quartz crystal resonators for radios for the war effort.
https://youtu.be/duZlWWwxIPQ
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Used to adjust crystal frequencies by careful polishing with wet and dry, constantly returning the crystal element to its housing to check its operating frequency. IIRC, used to multiply frequencies of around 6-8 MHz up to 50 MHz for transmission. The crystals of 6-8 MHz were easy to obtain out of old WW2 transceivers.
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Crystals were standard for transmitters when I was in the trade. Clip them heavily in a c class amplifier and you had many harmonics to choose from in your tuned circuits.
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I believe iPhones don’t use crystals these days, more a mechanical resonator.
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Crystal King gold mine in the Strathbogie Ranges used to produce giant quartz crystals that were used in Australia. This mine also produced some very large flawless crystals that an enterprising gem cutter used to produce the “worlds largest cut gemstones” these used to be on display at the old Melbourne museum. (Don’t know if the new museum even has a geology section). From memory, always dodgy, crystals were then artificially grown in no longer required cannon barrels, perfect cylinders that could then be sliced to wafers of any thickness.
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I think I will go out on a risky politically correct terminology limb and wish any Mothers we may have a very happy Mothers Day.
A good day to celebrate the ones we have and remember the ones we have lost.
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It will be my first Mother’s Day without my Mum.
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Me too. She was a wonderful lady.
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I lost mine early this year so I know how you feel.
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Happy mother’s day to all mothers. 💗 💐
Mine departed many many years ago…
And a reminder to the Max Klinger squad that your Mother’s day is April 1st.
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Latest video from Climste Discussion Nexus about how Germany just blew up a six year old coal plant and other crazy stuff
https://youtu.be/zR2wARlBywA
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6 years old, the idiots truly are running the asylum.
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Wow, they went full South Australia didn’t they?
I think it’s been said here before, just when you think things can’t get more stupid ……
Can’t wait for the next brilliant move from Bowen once he is allowed out of hiding.
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FWIW – a numbers game
“The Prime Minister of Poland says… –
*”How can 500 million Europeans ask 300 million Americans to protect
them from 140 million Russians…??
Then he adds: “But I’ll tell you something even more astonishing—
there are 2 billion Muslims askinq the world to protect them from 7 million Jews !!? ”
https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/495443973_722925360260841_613643652829424151_n.png?w=490
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But God is with the Jews.
I am waiting on the next season of the House of David. They say about 18 months away.
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By strange coincidence Albanese removed Mark the Invisible from his cabinet and quite moderate Ed Husic.
Has his gut told him that middle Australia heard enough of Middle East problems?
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I saw a funny the other day –
“Are there any Chinese Products that you could go without?”
“Yes. The Greens and LayBore”.
LOL.
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I would have said the Xian H-6 and the YJ-21 lol
10
https://open.substack.com/pub/philipmcmillan/p/why-scientists-are-worried-about?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=15jnh4
What is better than one mRNA shot to screw with your immune system and cause all manner of disease, why two of course.
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FWIW
“STEVE MILLOY: What Exactly Have NIH Grants Got Us?”
“But the critical questions are: “What does NIH-funded research actually accomplish?” and “Are the accomplishments worth the money?” The answers, at least according to NIH itself, seem to be shockingly little for the vast sums spent.”
More at
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/10/steve-milloy-what-exactly-have-nih-grants-got-us/
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Likewise our own CSIRO.
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After shutting down all their nuclear (I don’t know if they blew them up – I think not) they had to get rid of any reliable power sources to make the socialists partner in the coalition happy.
Since renewables failed in December-February it means they can import electricity when needed EXCEPT the Norwegian & Swedes are fuming about the higher prices this causes to their home markets. Indeed they aren’t that pleased about Denmark using up their hydro because the Danish wind farms aren’t going that well.
At some stage Germany will want lots of electricity from its neighbours but if they cut their cables (as has been foreshadowed) then Germany will be left with France (except the French aren’t & haven’t been that cooperative), Belgium, The Netherlands and Denmark cannot supply enough anyway, nor can Austria. That leaves Czechia (some nuclear) and Poland (coal-fired) both of whom have already installed phase changing transformers to prevent this. And Finland with lots of nuclear from their new plant and others and lower prices has flatly refused an interconnection to Germany.
Germany can bluster about the EU but that won’t help. A new election (after another Dunkelflaute) would end the reign of incompetents – which it why the current parties are trying to ban the AfD (to ‘save Democracy”).
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Blowing up coal plants, cutting cost inflating interconnectors, blowing up gas pipelines, the world seems to have gone mad and is waging war on abundant, affordable energy. I guess any insanity can be rationalized if beleive its for the plant (with slightly trembly voice)
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Always thought the term Indian Summer was coined by some frightful G&T-addled English chap reminiscing over his youthful days in the Raj back when Queenie ruled India and the seven seas…
Doh!
Erroneously called ‘Indians’ by Europeans arriving in the New World, the numerous tribes of ‘New England’ would burn/hunt during spells of fine weather in autumn, a time of smoke and mildness in Fall after the first frost (1778, Wiki).
Other names/phrases are Saint Martin’s Summer, Old Woman’s Summer, Halcyon Days (Gk) and to show it’s a global phenomenon, southern South Americans call it Veranico for Little Summer, when April/May lingers on with calm, sunny, warm(ish) weather – which is what we’re enjoying this year (as we did last year) apart from the more southern alpine nether-regions of NZ which are covered in snow: they can have it, give me warmth any day. 🌞
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Now that you have Indian Summer figured out, start on January Thaw.
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There is a wonderful book about life for British civil setvants in India under the British Raj called “The Complete Indian Housekeeper and Cook”. I have a copy.
https://archive.org/details/b21528640/mode/1up
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On the Climate Change money machine, especially in Australia, everyone’s cashing in. So many projects to save/capture/remove CO2 and CH4! You the public end up paying for it all. And of course the Safeguard Mechanism. All working with ‘Credits’, worthless electronic tokens traded for cash.
These laws are all based on the idea that reducing CO2 output is good for the world. When CO2 is constant across the planet, almost unchanging. 50% in 250 years seems like a lot, but if you earned 50% in 250 years in interest, 0.2% a year you would consider that close to fixed. And to prevent this terrible urgent catastrophe, billion are collected from everyone in Australia. Except none of this is proven science.
Sure we are told 97% of scientists agree. But that’s obviously a lie, so it’s Climate Scientists which quite ridiculously explicitly omits actual meteorologists, scientifically trained degreed weather experts. On the basis the climate is not weather. Even when the Oxford dictionary says Climate.. the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.
And these bad laws based on unproven conjecture are being enforced with penalties. Outside the taxation system and the Government has no such rights outside the taxation system. And not in the budget, so the people have no idea how much money is involved.
I am still at a loss as how this can be tolerated in a democratic society. It was a basic principle after Magna Carta that the King was forbidden from using his power to force the enrichment of third parties, friends of the king.
This was invented by John Howard and friends in 2001 and has been copied in England. Now no one even reports on the progressof the 35% carbon dioxide tax on all big Australian companies.
Science is utterly ignored. ‘Emissions’, Net Zero emissions are legislated in Australia and they have zero impact on CO2 levels. So it’s all a lie.
The puzzle is how to challenge bad laws like this and there are dozens of them. And a river of cash flowing out of Australia without any knowledge of ordinary Australian voters. We just had a National election and it was not mentioned. Net Zero is not only not affordable, it is pointless, unscientific and utterly illegal. Ho hum.
Our only hope is America where at least Donald Trump says it is a hoax run by China (and the UN) to impoverish the world and enrich China (and the UN). As if that wasn’t obviously true.
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This year Australians will pay 10% on their flights for a CO2 charge on the jet fuel. In five years, 35% .
This year Australians will pay 10% on transport, such as the Trans Tasman ferry. In five years, 35%.
And this year, Australians will pay 10% to flush the toilet in Victoria. If five years, 35%
and so on.
Crippling all transport, mining, agriculture, glass making, smelting, fertilizer. Companies have already closed. Our largest plastics company who made our plastic bottles. The only company which could recycle plastic. 800 jobs. 80 sites. All gone. No one cares. Fertilizers, steel, aluminium, lead, zinc. But backroom deals will be done, as long as the public is kept ignorant, as with Alcoa in Victoria where the taxpayer covers the wages.
And it was not a subject mentioned during the election. Because everyone thinks it’s a great idea for Australia to destroy itself for the greater good.
With China, America, India, South America, Africa, South East Asia, Russia etc., 95% of the planet not paying carbon taxes, its up to us to save the world by bankrupting the place.
Help us! Our politicians are mad, even without the Greens.
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And as far as I know, no one has questioned this amazingly wrong legislation. Or questions it today.
The legal argument is that we are fulfilling our non binding obligations under the Paris agreement.
But no one called evidence to confirm that this was all true and correct?
How can a parliament rip off hundreds of billions without having any idea whether the story is sound and while keeping all this from the public? Or is that the entire idea? Like the UN $40Bn tax on bunker oil in international shipping. Or the $10,000 impost on new non electric cars in Australia. No one knows, so no one cares. The victims are ignorant or helpless and the ultimate victims, the consumers don’t have a clue.
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It reminds me of the days of “Sales Tax” which varied wildly. This was by negotiation at a ‘wholesale’ level so the public was unaware of it. Up to 100%. Like the import Tariff. Buried in the final price. And if you publicized how much was going to the various state governments, you were investigated. And these varied from State to State. They finally tried to Sales Tax software and intellectual property despite the tax being on goods. So they just ignored the law and closed down businesses which refused to pay. Until they tried it on Coles Myer who at the time took in 25C in every retail dollar spent.
These are greedy public servants out of control. And greedy governments.
And lots of jobs associated with ‘Clean Energy’ as if carbon is dirty, dirty, dirty. As in Diamond. Which is odd as everyone, every tree, every microbe is made from CO2. But the money is great and no one knows.
130
I have read that the steel companies, concrete companies and others are negotiating behind closed doors to reduce the cash grab. And they will get a deal, providing they say nothing. This is the Mafia at work.
But it will only take one big company to take them on legally, refuse to pay the CO2 tax and go to the High Court and the whole rotten structure will come down. It’s politician’s science, politicians cash. And UN driven and the billions go overseas. Australia will collapse into debt, as is happening today. Who needs to invade?
130
The Liberals and even the conservative parties were completely silent about this obscene cash grab which will affect everyone.
Most people are unaware of it and don’t understand it.
100
AND, Canada’s new prime minister’s fortune is heavily invested in Brookfield. Climate scams are their major “industry”. Of course, he says it is all in a “blind trust”.
20
Enjoying Veranico in the OZ capital – best time of year.
30
Viva la veranico!
00
Sunday muse: George Carlin
MY NEXT LIFE
I want to live my next life backwards:
You start out dead and get that out of the way.
Then you wake up in a nursing home feeling better every day.
Then you get kicked out for being too healthy.
Enjoy your retirement and collect your pension.
Then when you start work, you get a gold watch on your first day.
You work 40 years until you’re too young to work.
You get ready for High School: drink alcohol, party, and you’re generally promiscuous.
Then you go to primary school, you become a kid, you play, and you have no responsibilities.
Then you become a baby, and then…you spend your last 9 months floating peacefully in Spa-like conditions – Central heating, room service on tap, and then…
You finish off as an orgasm.
110
It that you Benjamin Button?
20
Power engineer blows whistle on unreliables.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2025/05/10/im-a-power-engineer-the-iberian-grid-collapse-makes-me-very-afraid-for-britain/
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Didn’t realise that the UK are planning to shut both their remaining nuclear, with the exception of Sizewell, and a lot of their gas plants. The article states that it takes around five years to build a new CCGT plant, and also notes that with a prolonged blackout, the synchronous condensers will also wind down, thus making it very difficult to restart the grid.
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Also — After nearly 50 years of operation, Dinorwig Power Station is currently shut down for major repairs and there has been no information on when it will re-open. Its major use was in case of “a black start” when it could supplied enough (hydro) to get some plants operational, but that was in the times when coal and nuclear were the major sources**.
**Much the same as Snowy 2 was supposed to prevent (whenever it is finally built).
Also note the problems foreseen by an electrical engineer see comment 6.1.1 above.
Over the next five years all of our nuclear stations, bar Sizewell, will be closed. Over the same period our combined cycle gas generator fleet will halve from 30 GW to 15 GW. (It takes 5 years to build a new CCGT even using an existing site. The new ones are 66 per cent efficient and cost less than £1 billion to build a 1 GW plant – one third the cost of an offshore windmill.)
40
Australia has the most bloated government bureaucracy in the world.
And that’s where a good chunk of Labor voters will be.
https://images.app.goo.gl/Hrj2QNn61Pgfg9Yk7
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A retired policeman was arrested in the UK recently, handcuffed and put in a cell for eight hours, then “interrogated” before being set free with a warning and told that, if he falls foul of the law again, he might find he is no longer able to visit his daughter in Australia. The six police officers who arrived at his home apparently closely inspected his collection of books and declared that they were “very Brexity”, a clear signal that those officers had leftist political views. His house was closely searched and they went so far as to inspect his shopping list and seize his electronic devices.
His ‘crime’?
He saw a post online which read (referring to marches for a ‘Free Palestine’): ‘Dear @SuellaBraverman – as someone who was on one of the ‘hate marches’, if you call me an antisemite I will sue you,’ he felt inclined to respond with “One step away from storming Heathrow looking for Jewish arrivals…”. This was prompted by reports of mobs storming an airport in Dagestan, Russia to intercept Israeli citizens.
Of course this is just another story about the UK’s decline into leftist totalitarianism, but we in Australia should take heed because, where they go, we will follow.
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I hope your Mother’s Day, Jo, was full of cuddles and kisses. I am not a mum. Mums are the backbone of society. Without them, everything would fall down in a heap.
Regarding our ?Election?: Albo is the last thing Australia needs. We’re all getting poorer and he has another term to go(!?).
The Liberal Party has to grow a spine and be proud of its basic beliefs and shout them from the rooftops. The average person would not know what the Party stands for. It’s disheartening when there is no winning plan to safeguard any malfunctions occurring.
The bleeding obvious is they should have cancelled the Climate Change CO2 LIE way-back! and saved a great deal of taxpayers’ money.
Sadly, they seem to be stuck with the stupid “broad church” idea. Sitting on a barbed wire fence doesn’t make for success.
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“Eh Gawd!”
Make sure you are sitting before reading (IMO)
“When Joe Biden’s Brain Melted on ‘The View,’ Something Unexpected Happened: A Democratic Star Was Born”
https://pjmedia.com/scott-pinsker/2025/05/10/when-joe-bidens-brain-melted-on-the-view-something-unexpected-happened-a-democratic-star-was-born-n4939657
Though Hilary won’t be pleased I guess
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Germany is using hollow concrete spheres in the ocean to produce power
The project, called StEnSea (Stored Energy in the Sea), was developed by the Fraunhofer IEE (Institute for Energy Economics and Energy Systems Technology). The idea is relatively simple: hollow concrete spheres are installed at a depth of several hundred metres. Each sphere is fitted with a pump-turbine and a valve system.
Here’s how it works:
To store energy, excess electricity is used to pump water out of the sphere, creating a relative vacuum.
To release energy, we open the valve: the water, pushed by the external pressure, rushes into the sphere and turns the turbine, producing electricity.
Each sphere has an estimated lifespan of between 50 and 60 years, with partial replacement of components every 20 years or so.
https://farmingdale-observer.com/2025/05/10/a-german-experiment-proved-that-simple-concrete-spheres-make-fantastic-batteries-now-california-plans-to-submerge-a-9-meter-diameter-sphere-in-the-ocean-and-is-already-planning-versions-of-30-meters/
Sounds ridiculous.
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400 tonnes is an awful lot of “stuff” to store a relatively modest amount of electricity.
The same amount of energy is stored in about 49kg of coal.
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Probably last as long as a wind turbine would last in the ocean. Doubt that this would extend to 20 years, even 10 years might be a stretch.
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FWIW
More “dubious with a bigger dube”?
“Nature Paper Claims to Pin Liability for ‘Climate Damages’ on Oil Companies”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/10/nature-paper-claims-to-pin-liability-for-climate-damages-on-oil-companies/
Nature again I note
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