Climate prophets say Humanity is entering New Reality — has “crossed the first tipping point”

By Jo Nova

With the climate olympic-junket just weeks away in Brazil, the race is on for word-salad-catastrophes flavored with science-incense to shake down more cash and concessions from the rich democracies.

And thus the University of Exeter proffers the first round of this year’s “on the brink” specials.

The first tipping point is almost upon us, just like it was every year for the last 29 years in a row:

‘New reality’ as world reaches first climate tipping point

The world faces a “new reality” as we have reached the first of many Earth system tipping points that will cause catastrophic harm unless humanity takes urgent action, according to a landmark report released today (13 Oct) by the University of Exeter and international partners.

With ministers gathering today ahead of the COP30 summit, the second Global Tipping Points Report finds that warm-water coral reefs – on which nearly a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend – are passing their tipping point. Widespread dieback is taking place and – unless global warming is reversed – extensive reefs as we know them will be lost, although small refuges may survive and must be protected.

We are on the brink of more tipping points, with devastating risks for people and nature: the irreversible melting of polar ice sheets, the collapse of key ocean currents and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest – where COP30 will be held.

With global warming set to breach 1.5°C, the report – by 160 scientists at 87 institutions in 23 countries – argues that countries must minimise temperature overshoot to avoid crossing more tipping points. Every fraction of a degree and every year spent above 1.5°C matters.

It might as well be straight out of the Neolithic Sorcerers Cookbook — How to wind up the crowd before you ask for the goats and girls:

1. Pick things the audience likes but mostly won’t have any direct experience of, like, say, corals 100km off the coast and under 10 meters of water. Even in the unlikely event a single critic dives on one reef, the real crisis will turn out to be in the 100,000  reefs they didn’t visit.
2. Use vague, ill defined terms, like “climate change” which can mean long term, short term, man-made, natural, or a thing that dropped in for the weekend.
3. Seed the idea that all storms, high tides, fires, demented dolphins and shonky buildings are “affected by climate change”. Even your hay fever can be a sign you should vote for a carbon tax. Soon, people will see climate change everywhere like UFO’s and Elvis.
4. Whatever disaster looks like, it’s always just around the corner.

The experts got nearly everything wrong

Despite the claims of coral damage in the Exeter panic report, the largest and best studied reef in the world is  just fine. Even though there was “record heat” in the last few years  coral cover was better than it had been since 1986. Cyclones are the biggest smasher of reefs and they haven’t changed.  Arctic sea ice stopped shrinking 20 years ago, which it wasn’t supposed to, and Antarctic sea ice grew til 2015, then shrank — which none of the experts predicted.

 

If you can see an effect from man-made CO2 in global cyclones in the last 45 years, the IPCC would like to hear from you:

Whatever you do, don’t mention The Holocene. It is the wrecking ball.

Everything was hotter, seas were higher, but humans and corals survived.

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Jo Nova’s tally of climate model failure continues:  the hot spot is still missing, the climate models can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale, they don’t know  why global warming slowed for years, They can’t explain the pause, the cause or the long term historic climate movements either. Measurements of satellites, clouds, 3,000 ocean buoys, 6,000 boreholes, a thousand tide gauges, and 28 million weather balloons  can’t find the warming that the models predict. In the oceans, the warming isn’t statistically significant, sea-levels started rising too early, aren’t rising fast enough, aren’t accelerating, nor are warming anywhere near as much as they predicted. Antarctica was supposed to be warming faster than almost anywhere but they were totally wrong. . And the only part of Antarctica that’s warming sits on top of a volcano chain they prefer not to tell you about.

No wonder expert climate modelers don’t want their own pensions bet on climate models.