Is this the start of a cooler shift?
Cap Allon of Electroverse notes that we may be in for another La Nina:
The La Niña climate pattern is forecast to make a return this fall and last through the winter of 2021-22, according to an official “alert” issued Thursday, July 8 by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which suggests further global cooling as we enter the new year.
La Niña –-a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean-– is one of the main drivers of global weather — it is usually associated with colder global temperatures, droughts in the southern U.S., and increased precipitation in Australia.
Entering a La Niña event when global temperatures are already around baseline is significant.
If the climate pattern has the expected affect then we should brace for global temps to continue their overall downward trend –which began in 2016 (see link below)– to levels well below the norm.
We could conceivably be looking at UAH readings some 0.4C below the 30-year average by the spring of 2022.
A La Nina watch has been issued by CPC.
The updated run of the NMME has La Nina returning during late fall and early winter 2021. This progression is also supported by similar analog years. #ENSO pic.twitter.com/gPMVokOfDH
— Ethan Sacoransky (@blizzardof96) July 8, 2021
Read it all: https://electroverse.net/noaa-declares-la-nina-watch-for-the-fall-the-global-cooling-accelerator/
Second coldest June in Oz on record-But I guess you knew that as you dig out your woolies
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/global-warming-latest-australia-experiences-second-coldest-june-on-record/
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Do you know where the “second coldest” value comes from?
UAH has June 2021 in 37th out of 43 years. so 7th coldest
2021 -0.76 37
1985 -0.79 38
1981 -0.82 39
1982 -0.88 40
2000 -0.99 41
1997 -1.31 42
2007 -1.57 43
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This is likely a surface (2 m.) average while UAH is from a thick layer of the atmosphere.
That’s just a WAG.
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Where in the troposphere do you live? I live on the planet’s surface where things are a bit different. Here in NZ, we had the warmest June on record.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/446283/warmest-june-on-record-for-new-zealand-but-heavy-rainfall-coming-with-spring
07
You just let on that you have done a propaganda class.
A lot of things affect the reading at a weather station that have nothing to do with climate. The trend from a satellite measurement of nearly the whole lower troposphere should reflect only trends due to climate change – not people parking an ice-cream truck next to the weather station.
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Tropospheric temperature is much more sensitive to ENSO than the surface. ENSO is normal variation around an upward trend in both the tropospheric and surface temperature datasets.
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There is no upward trend except from those ENSO events.
Between events, basically zero trend.
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LOL! https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/trend/plot/uah6/every
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Thanks for backing up my comment with evidence.
You are doing well.
Only warming is at El Ninos.
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Here is data from RSS clearly showing the zero trend sections from 1980-1997 and from 2000 – 2014
https://i.postimg.cc/prG4BWPm/RSS-zero-trends.jpg
Then we had another El Nino, which has now subsided, and temperatures have dropped back down to the level before that El Nino.
The aqua squiggles are very funny attempts at climate modelling.
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http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/GlobalElNino_files/image001.jpg
Science, its that simple, Simon
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Groan, yet another example of the good old Skeptical Science escalator:
https://skepticalscience.com/graphics/Escalator500.gif
The overall warming trend is statistically significant irrespective of the temperature dataset and period used. Cherry-picking El Niños won’t help you.
02
very funny, doesn’t look at the data, cites SkS … fail !!
No warming between El Ninos
Warming only at El Ninos.
You have to use those El Ninos to show any warming, just like you tried to do.
Please at least try to grasp some basic scientific reality.
Its really very simple, Simon.
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The data on that SkS graph is nothing like UAH..
Just another of their many childish fabrications.
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That comes from empirical comparisons of the two methods and is meant to distract from the elephant in the room. The two are very similar around 2016.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1978/offset:-0.5
One of them is just stuffed up around 1998.
There is no physical reason for ENSO to show up more prominently in the troposphere than surface. Its actually illogical.
00
Yes Simon, but what colour is the sky on your planet?
10
Australia, 7th coldest in 43 years. !
You do know the NZ surface record is probably worse and more mal-adjusted than Australia’s, don’t you Simon.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/16/new-zealands-niwa-sued-over-climate-data-adjustments/
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Should have listened to video.. data from BoM !
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Extremely relevant point.
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I wonder what time period that data is for ?
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…except BoM don’t appear to agree with it either.
“Temperatures
The national mean temperature for June was 0.36 °C warmer than average for Australia as a whole.
The mean maximum temperature was above average for June at +0.07 °C. The mean minimum temperature was above average for June at +0.64 °C.”
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
Ooops, a bunch of people are just making stuff up again…
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What is correct is that on one day, it was the coldest in 122 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tKD8wFzfrE
Maybe that’s where the “story” comes from.?
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B’Cold here in Sydney – 1st time this winter, ran the Gas Central Heating all day yesterday at 2oC and bumped it up to 21C in the evening – shut it down to 18C for overnight and as double brick house and retains heat, only started up occasionally during the night
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A La Nina extension from the solar minimum can occur if large cyclones extend same. We did wee a Cat 5 hit the Pacific last summer. I doubt that it was enough to cause a full blown La Nina. A weak La Nina probably.
We are in year two of three year cycle of excellent agricultural outcomes for Australia.
Grow baby grow.
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Good years for agriculture ahead, as long as it doesn’t flood.
‘During La Niña, there are typically more tropical cyclones in the Australia region, with twice as many making landfall than during El Niño years on average 5.
‘This means an increased likelihood of major damage and flooding related to strong winds, high seas and heavy rains from tropical cyclones.’ (BoM)
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Beware the 2!
There hasn’t been a year ending in a 2 that’s had above average rainfall, for the last 160 years.
That hold true for the whole eastern side of Australia – Check your local records.
Doesn’t mean they have all been droughts, some where only just below average
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This may be the source of the story.
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-01/perth-wa-coldest-start-to-winter-in-26-years/100260468
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Large numbers of children in NZ falling ill as they haven’t built up immunity as covid, flu etc has been kept away from them by lockdowns
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1460236/New-Zealand-news-covid-lockdown-immunity-debt-virus-children-hospital-RSV
Have no idea of the truth of it but it is feared there will be a large outbreak of flu in the UK this winter as it virtually disappeared last flu season.
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It will not be colds and flu but a new strains of COVID.
/sarc-off
Note many cold viruses are human coronaviruses at about 15% of all colds. Also the early symptoms of a cold (and flu) often exactly mirror the COVID virus’s early symptoms. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold )
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I’ll never forget the “predictions” of PIK and Schellnhuber in 2019, that with sophisticated maths and models they will be able to predict much better and earlier ENSO events and predicted a strong El Niño for the end of 2020.
We all know, what really came 😀 😀 https://forum.kigges.de/images/smilies/muhaha.gif
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The serious weather phenomenon “El Niño” could soon occur again in the Pacific region. Researchers at Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel, find that there will probably be another “El Niño” by the end of 2020. The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this. ?!?! because of reasons 😀
“Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable ‘El Niño’ forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time,” stresses JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explains: “This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights – and we make these available to the people affected.” He points out that, of course, the prediction method does not offer one hundred percent certainty: “The probability of ‘El Niño’ coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that’s pretty significant.”
Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast “El Niño” for 2020
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Mother Nature always has the last laugh. Always.
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She’s a perverse old bag, too.
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And yet, as well all rejoice in a model predicting cooler weather, much of the US is bracing for another heat dome,
Red thumbs for models are always accurate, green thumbs for ‘this is nothing unusual, look how cool it was at my place’
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It’s just weather Peter!
Either that or the big freeze in Brazil is also an indicator of climate trends too.
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I’m pretty sure its the meandering jet stream behind the blocking that is causing heat domes.
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Jetstream is typically all above 18,000 ft (above convection). Heat ‘domes’ (inversions + tropical originated winds) aren’t.
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Ta, must have something to do with the Cascades, an anomalous weather event.
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Amusing that Peter thinks he can define what green and red thumbs mean.
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Childish, more like it.
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So Fitzroy, if some places are experiencing record cold and some places are experiencing record hot, wouldn’t you say both are more likely due to localised weather rather than some mystical global climate change?
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That wouldn’t fit Fitzroys narrative.
Lies and cherry-picking are his default.
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Is that what they call an Average?
Terror Australis is experiencing a very, very cold winter, and nord Amerique is experiencing very very hot summer.
But, if you live on or near the equator it all averages out to pleasant.
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Terror? Was that deliberate?!
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Yes.
But it should have been terra.
Terra nulius , or something like that.
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🙂
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Terra nullius, or something like that.
Terra nullius was declared a legal fiction on 3 June 1992, and overturned.
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A hah, excellent question, let’s have a look:
Global All Time Records Summary
. Year to Date
HIGH RECORDS: 770
LOW RECORDS: 253
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records
So, given HIGH records are being broken at 3x the rate the LOW records are, what would you say is going on?
06
A very good question even knowing you meant it rhetorically. During the recent Portland scorcher I asked the question on another blog “What are all the factors that go into the making of a record low or high temperature?” and was immediately challenged by the redoubtable Nick Stokes for even posing it. But it’s worth pondering just for the sake of delivering a reasonable answer to your question.
What sort of probability distribution do record high and low temperatures follow? What sort of random process is this? And there is little use to answer that they follow an distribution of extreme values, because that simply side-steps what you are likely getting at, which is, that the mean value of this distribution is rising on a secular trend — it is not a stationary process. Can you point to a longer term measure of these high and low records beyond this year to date?
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Challenged by Nick Stokes. Wear that badge of honour with pride.
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Allan, equipment may be the answer – our thermometers measure and record microbursts of heat and the BOM’s process is not to average out temperatures to eliminate those records, thus giving us perverted and to high highs. At the same time, they were found, in some cold climate areas, to not be recording temperatures below what the BOM had decided was the ultimate cold temp -10 degrees I think – thus giving us perverted and too high lows.
Add to that the history changing ACORN Sat one and two that have cooled old temperature records to bring them into line with the current narrative, and eliminating the Federation drought from our official records, no wonder hot records are easy to break.
So keeping in mind that the BOM records have a disproportionate impact on global surface temperature records, higher temperature records have a bias over low records. Other country’s official records are accused of being similarly tampered with so what is there to believe? All I know is that we are having another cold year in Australia that will by December be another record hot year!
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What is going on?
Simply a change to different temperature recording instruments from physical types that smooth over a number of seconds to electronic types which will record a high even it it lasts only for a few milliseconds.
(Thanks William who says the same)
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Have you noticed yet that the number of record-breaking heat events significantly outnumber the record cold events?
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Have you notice how much more livable most climates have become as the climate thankfully warmed out of the Little Ice Age ?
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Moderate to strong La Nina.
https://climateimpactcompany.com/july-2021-enso-outlook-la-nina-likely-to-return-later-in-2021-could-be-a-vigorous-event-2-2/
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From Climate Impact Company? … I’m sure they known their stuff … not click bait
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CIC never mention global warming and as they are in the business of forecasting, they’ll try and get it right.
Direct observation suggests that La Nina is a certainty.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-155.24,0.54,530/loc=-154.703,-1.943
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Poor unfortunate Peter. Bad luck with his comments showing his ignorance again.
The heat dome was a highly localised weather event.
USA as a whole had a negative temperature anomaly at the time.
Has happened before, will happen again.
There is absolutely zero link to any human causality.
It you think there is, then prove it.
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It’s a heat dome variant.
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I’m from the U.S. (Colorado).
We call it summer.
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And summers vary.
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Always have, always will.
30
PF, I’m sure you’re familiar with:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
Where you can observe the yin/yang of hot/cold spots of WEATHER to your heart’s content.
There is always a massive heatwave somewhere on earth, the fact that alarmists and the MSM ambulance chase them and report them feverishly and relentlessly does not make it alarming except to the profoundly ignorant and easily impressionable.
The global temperature shows little connection to individual heatwaves, indeed when the media is screaming about a heatwave, the earth is as likely as not cooling over all.
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US Heatwave Historical Data 1895-2020
https://climaterealism.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/heat-waves_download3_2021.png
Hottest period was 1930 – 1938, and peaked in 1936.
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Context is good.
Here is the original website:
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves
“The spike in Figure 3 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the “Dust Bowl.” Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.”
12
The drought contributed to the heat waves which contributed to the drought. Excellent. It seems a bit circular, even though I suppose one could argue for this being an example of a feedback loop. What brings one out of the loop, however? I lived at the edge of the Great Plains and we had a wet 1940s, dry 1950s, dry/wet 1960s, wet 1970s and 1980s,…
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So the models are good, according to the number of red thumbs.
(please note: make all the strawman you want – but I was talking about a model, not climate change, and not weather)
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On this occasion the models have it right.
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Why this occasion? is it that it fits your belief cooling will predominate over warming. ie I will accept only the science which fits the talking points delivered by the Heartland institute
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No sir … there are models and then there are models, junk in, junk out. This forecast from Climate Impact Company is correct.
Forecasts: The persistent La Nina-like MEI supports some dynamic models forecasting La Nina to return later in 2021. Climate Impact Company is in agreement with these outlooks. The two top indicators of La Nina’s return are the NCEP CFS V2 and POAMA (models). Each model is AGGRESSIVE with building moderate-to-strong La Nina for quarter 4 of 2021.’
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Yet Peter is still unable to present any of his so-called science.
La Nina re-asserting itself, sleepy Sun for quite a while into the future.
What else does any rational scientific mind expect, except a cooling trend.
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Actually from the graphic most of the models – possibly 97% – are complete bollocks. The spread of predictions is a joke, looking like they gave some children some different coloured pencils and said ‘draw some lines’. The one or two that might be close to accurate should stay and all the others should be told to give up and go and do something useful.
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ie, you were talking scientifically unsupportable gibberish, as usual.
Another “bad luck” post from Peter.
… basically just a petty and juvenile attempt at attention seeking.
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Who cares how YOU interpret the red or green thumbs. This site’s method of indicating agreement or non-agreement with a comment is through a red/green thumbs. Your arbitrary change is just that arbitrary and wrong. The majority says they do not agree with you.
Then again most foolish lefties try and change the rules to fit their idiotic worldview for that is their (and your) only method of try to seem relevant and knowledgeable. You, Peter Fitzroy are not your correct in your interpretation, you’re just another silly lefty.
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where does it say what you assert about the thumbs?
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The Normal operation of this blog. Also all the green thumbs for those criticizing your demented view.
“Set ’em up I’ll continue to knock ’em down.”
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Poor Peter.
Whinging and whining yet again. Victim status in-built.
If you are that desperate for”green” thumbs..
All you have to do is type something based on facts and rational thought.
A big stretch for you, for sure.
But you could at least try !!
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You’ve done it again eh. Twenty non Peter Fitzroy responses to a pseudopoll hijack attempt. Jo should be paying you for the traffic you generate.
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I totally agree in opposing that contrary view, but only when expressed in positive terms, and that’s only because some my take our view, yours and mine, as being complementary rather than supplementary, even though there’s little difference between the two when it’s all said and done.
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Correction;
may take, not my.
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Yes Kelm Keith,
You have to be able to see and understand ALL sides of an argument so that a rational, logical, maybe emotional, and meaningful assessment of reality can be made.
I note that some individual’s ideas are near worthless but that form of banality can often reveal how the unthinker’s view of reality is so far from what is true or worthwhile.
Even the silly rants of an innocent child could hold some new insights but it’s very rarely so, if at all.
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So the model had nothing to do with climate change PF?
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Please Peter stick with your models. I’ll stick with reality. Let’s compare results two, five, ten and twenty years from now. I can’t expect to exist beyond the last forecast date, as I’m coming up to my eightieth birthday next month.
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Is compression a skiĺ you learned at school?
00
It is hot in the U. S. Southwest in July.
Who knew?
Washington State is cooling, for now.
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The shell game continues. The scam artists have moved on to the next scam; untested vaccinations on a mass scale never seen before. It has the additional benefit for the evil masters of enhancing their oppression techniques and propaganda tactics to prepare for the next stage in the development of a totalitarian regime for the West. Countries like China and Russia must be laughing. It’s no wonder China is preparing to invade Taiwan. The West won’t even care.
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Excuse me, isn’t this the tutorial on climate change?
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The point I’m making is the CAGW activists and scam artists are now adding the pandemic. See
Coronavirus and Climate Change – C-Change
Changing climate and the COVID-19 pandemic: more than just heads or tails
and much more.
The second point is this bi-frontal attack on us is gathering strength thanks to our so called “leaders” simply because they refuse to admit the truth and instead keep perpetrating their propaganda and untruths with increasing regularity.
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Yeah I see now, thanks.
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‘Morrison must decide whether to press the case for firming the commitment, as Joe Biden and Boris Johnson urge him to do, or stay with his present loose wording of net zero “preferably” by 2050, to avoid a fight with the Nationals.’ (The Conversation)
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Just another Misha Ketchell approved statement el gordo not worthy of citing on this site.
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Okay, ‘preferably’ sounds like a lukewarm position and Scotty was heavied. Hardly statesman like.
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I guess someone said “Well it’s been a bit cold the last few years I guess we’d better mention La Niña or someone might be asking questions.”.
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The Klimatariat is well aware of the problem confronting them, which is why Judith Curry said they should look at natural variables in relation to weather and avoid this preoccupation with AGW.
This second plateau in world temperature proves conclusively that CO2 is not the temperature control knob.
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Temp has been declining, yes, but from its highest points, not from an average trend line. It’s currently closer to the longer-term slowly rising trend. This is not global ‘cooling’. It needs to be sustained well below the long-term trend to be a ‘cooling’ phase. Like 5 to 10 years below the “Hiatus’s” average Temp, then it might be the beginning of a cooling phase. We’re nowhere near that.
But who knows with UHI and met-agencies playing Punch and Judy with the Temp ‘stats’. It’s humidity and winds which matter for heating and cooling effect, not the T transient spikes and dips, or the trends, and ENSO affects humidity and wind more than it affects Temp! That’s where ENSO’s real effect is. Neutral to slightly positive means no one knows.
Let me know when any one of the met agencies can routinely make accurate ENSO forecasts for 30 or 40 years straight. Then I give a drop of credence to their ENSO forecasting. Pretty sure they didn’t suddenly figure it out.
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Over the next five years temps should plateau and then fall below the Spencer line.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2021_v6.jpg
00
Been reading such predictions for 20 years. All wrong so far. Not a believer, earth has its own ways and means, and we don’t understand them, may never.
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The AMO should gradually move into its negative phase by 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation#/media/File:Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation.svg
With the PDO already in its negative phase, a cooling combo, we can expect world temperatures to fall.
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People keep claiming this in comments, mostly elsewhere, but I don’t see it established yet, and even so, it’s gradual, a 10 to 30 year process.
There’s no cooling now, there’s not even a Hiatus re-established now.
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According to Christopher Monckton the new plateau is plain to see.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/02/the-new-pause-lengthens-by-another-2-months-to-6-years-2-months/
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‘Paleoclimate reconstructions from the tropical Pacific region vary greatly during the Little Ice Age (LIA), although the reconstructed IPO index in this study suggests that the LIA was primarily defined by a weak, negative IPO phase and hence more La Niña–like conditions.’ (Porter et al 2021)
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Reconstructions are often as worthy now as climate models, they vary, especially politically and ideologically and with funding aims. Mostly for the money, and also because that’s what people want to use them for, for some reason. In geology we used palaeoclimate reconstruction for its proper purpose, as a means to understand the processes of global sedimentary depositions, including marine. This is the very reason why such reconstructions exist. Bob Carter was one of my best lecturers on the topic, he was a sedimentary geologist, his knowledge all came from understanding palaeoclimate, but for not political or ideological and future projections, just so he could understand the earth better and teach people what we knew and how to understand it.
People who try to divine the future from palaeo-reconstructions are wasting everyone’s time, plus using them for the wrong purposes. Their purpose is understanding sedimentation and morphology, and people doing that for a crust understand the limitations. And the uses are all OBSERVATIONAL. I map a sed outcrop, or I have a sed-core, now I need to understand it. What was its palaeo-environment of deposition? How was it laid down? That’s how palaeoclimate knowledge was, and is still accumulated, and utilized in its proper context. Any person not physically doing that with actual rocks and sed-cores is wasting everyone’s time. Especially if they’re making detailed future temp trend predictions based on palaeo-environment of deposition reconstructions for unconsolidated seds from 300 years ago, and especially if its about ENSO trend.
What a load of useless blah-blah.
30
Bob Carter was good, adaptability to everything nature throws at us.
There might be another way to prove the IPO was more negative throughout the 17th century.
00
If you have a moment … Bryant et al. reckon a comet hit the water south of NZ around 1500 AD, is this for real?
https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1035&context=scipapers
00
So the people who believe CO2 controls our weather have issued a warning that the oceans actually control our weather/climates? As most scientists actually believe given that all the stored heat is in the oceans, or at least 99.93% or 1400:1.
Next we will get a warning about the coincidence of the falling de Vries solar cycle! All as predicted by simple observational science, before ‘The Science’ of the carbon crazies.
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One of the difficulties in being objective about the ‘weather’ let alone the ‘climate’ is that we think of our immediate environment, sea level largely, on land largely and next to water, largely. That’s a very small part of the planet which is 75% covered in water (including Antarctica). And the oceans have an average depth of 3.4km
At 1km under the ocean surface, there is no light, no wind, no weather and little life. And all of the oceans are obviously above 0C from bottom to the top. But we focus on our perceived narrow environment, not the real surface of this planet and not the drivers of our air temperature and rain, which are entirely the oceans and the sun.
James Hansen who started this CO2 is pollution story is an upper atmosphere specialist who is besotted by the idea that his area of work is the most important in climate and ‘greenhouse gases’ the most important part of that. What if it’s not true? Unlike Venus, we still have a water planet, 340x as much water than air, by weight.
His self aggrandizing fantasy has been going now for 33 years since his 1988 Congressional presentation on rapid global Global Warming, except that no one calls it Global Warming any longer, because that’s obviously not happened despite the best efforts of groups like our own BOM who are fiddling the records, even lowering heat records.
Expect a rapid drop in world temperatures of about 2C in the next two decades. That fits the records and the well know ocean cycles and solar cycles, not the fantasy. El Nino is just one cycle but the expected and predictable drop in sun intensity will push us much lower. And as is pretty obvious, we will be utterly dependent on coal.
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Indeed Tdef,
and Bob Carter said it some of it before https://youtu.be/epJybIc8cGM
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Yes, it’s all about the manifestations of the exchange of energy. As pointed out by Bob Carter at the same time in Australia there was 6″ of rain a day for a week in Queensland while massive forest fires burned tinder dry Victoria. Neither of these is weather or climate, just events which manifest as extremes. The blaming of either or both on Global Warming of 1.5C in a century is illogical.
However those gigantic oceans are fluid and subject to the same coriolus force induced by rotation which passes 1000km/hr at the equator and the great swirling patterns in 3D we know as currents. What they also do is transport huge amounts of energy up and down and around, like a giant washing machine. And in turn these have patterns which result in oscillations and those oscillations change surface temperatures and those surface temperatures change climates.
Is any of this in the vaunted atmospheric computer models? As far as I know, no.
Which is why we watch out for mysterious ‘El Nino’ events because we cannot predict them, even if they can change climates dramatically and for very long periods. Consider the Gulf Stream stopping.
Rather as directed by the UN of WHO fame, we prefer to spend $1.5Trillion a year failing to control CO2, which we also cannot control. Because it too is part of sea surface temperature and in rapid equilibrium and we puny humans have no control at all.
But Elon Musk will save the world. Apparently. And Bill Gates, who just lectured people who travel in private jets on the need to minimize CO2 output per person.
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The other idea which borders on religion in science is that while the (many) infallible (computer) models accurately predict the long term future, they are missing the major factors which we know control the temperature of the planet, the sun and the ocean oscillations. And how does anyone rationalize this as meaning the models are correct?
Simple. They say it all averages out! Oscillations always are about a center point and so they can be ignored, which is science rubbish in a real world. Oscillations dissipate energy and the mean can move up and down, as is happening with both temperature and CO2.
And the postulated idea that CO2 is forcing ocean temperatures up, the current fashionable idea, is not only unexplained but ignores the simple idea that the ocean is stuffed with CO2 and a warmer ocean surface means more ocean CO2 is released into the atmosphere. As 98% of all free CO2 is in the ocean, far more than anywhere else, it is simple known science and obvious. It took James Hanson to make up a far fetched idea about CO2 being a very powerful greenhouse gas and somehow now warming the oceans but not the air.
Whatever else happens, we know the rapid cooling will be explained as Climate Change. Caused by warming. And CO2 going up is our fault and not natural.
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Thx tomomason for Bob Carter link. Bob Carter was Australia’s Richard Lindzen on
Climate Change post global war-ming. 1st role of govt protect yr borders 2nd role of govt protect from yr regional natural hazards like bushfire disasters in Oz, earthquake disasters in New Zealand, typhoon disasters in Florida.
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Yes beth,
USA has Richard Lindzen,
Australia had Bob Carter,
UK has ????????, hence the rise and rise of the media fed zombies in the UK.
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I think Christopher Moncton counts as a qualified sceptic.
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Wash your mouth out!
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Last 30 years.
1990-91. La Nino
2000-01. La Nino
2010-11. La Nino
2020-21. La Nino
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La? Niño? Which do you mean?
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Annie it all depends on the gender the ocean defines itself as at any time!
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Oh crikey! How many are there supposed to be now?
The Pacific won’t be very pacific at this rate.
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Here’s the latest BOM updates for ENSO, IOD and the SAM. Up to the 6th July and the next update 20th July.
So far ENSO still neutral,but the IOD could be negative by late winter spring and that could be good news for rainfall south of the Broome to Wollongong line. But who knows? We’ll just have to wait and see.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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The BOM has very good, short videos for understanding ENSO, IOD and SAM etc.
Here’s their BOM IOD for example. Look up ENSO, SAM etc if you’re interested.
And if a picture tells us a lot then sometimes a video is even better. Just saying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6hOVatamYs
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I know lots of well educated people that fervently believe in Science (names of religions should have initial caps).
They think la nina crossed the border into Texas.
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The last 50 years has been a population record buster for Africa ( 53 countries) and the world.
The entire world pop has increased from 3.7 billion in 1970 to 7.8 bn today and Africa has increased from 363 million in 1970 to 1370 mil today. Or an increase of 1 bn in just 50 years and world pop has more than doubled ( another 4.1 bn) and in just 50 years.
OH and in 1970 global life expectancy was about 57 and today is 73 and African life exp in 1970 was 47 and about 64 today. And higher percentage of urban living today in both Africa and the world. DUH?
But the Biden donkey + EU + MSM etc tell us we Humans are facing an EXISTENTIAL threat or APOCALYPSE or CRISIS. Will these Malthusian fools ever WAKE UP??? IOW our GLOBAL rainfall and climate today can’t be too bad or am I missing something???
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/life-expectancy
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Neville:
Malthusian fools never wake up. They just go on television. (e.g. David A)
The proposition of Malthus was disputed while he was alive, but it suited the UK government to use it as an excuse with famine in Ireland.
Darwin based his theory on Malthus and ever since then those who believe The Science have never thought any more.
The best comment was from Henry George (translated into Australian):
Chicken hawks and humans eat chickens.
The more Chicken hawks, the less chickens.
The more humans, the more chickens.
(because they breed them, explanation for those very slow in understanding e.g one commentator above).
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If humans majorly control the climate (LOL 🙂 ) then the slowing of the population growth rate should be welcome (see https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/06/1040621).
However the major problem with slowing birth rates is that it skews the demographics of each nation. Prediction of the next 30 years — Africa’s population will grow fast at about 176% probably making it a better economically (child deaths are falling, life expectancy rising, education and health rates are rising – giving a large educated and productive workforce), while China’s is nearly stagnant at about 2%, that will slow it’s recent economical excess as not enough worker about to support all those elderly citizens.
The big losers are Europe, Russia and Japan (all averaging around -15%) with their large elderly populations and shrinking workforce.
See https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/02/03/10-projections-for-the-global-population-in-2050/ for more.
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AGAIN I have to point out that Dr Rosling’s BBC video proves that CLIMATE + Human HEALTH + WEALTH have been very positive over the last 200+ years. And STILL improving since 2010 to 2021 as well and even after taking a nasty global pandemic into account.
But then again what’s so wonderful about the Little Ice Age when human life exp was under 40 and the 1 billion people alive then were definitely POOR and SICK???
AGAIN this 5 minute video wrecks every argument about today’s so called terrible climate and the coming APOCALYPSE. And Dr Rosling’s short video + his 120,000 data points tell us the real history of the last 200+ years and all because of our use of fossil fuels. OH and 80%+ of our TOTAL global ENERGY today is STILL generated by coal, oil or gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
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“Climate prediction center”
Sounds authoritative.
Measurements:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2021&month=07
Anyone see a trend for La Nina?
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BoM is showing hesitancy in proclaiming a moderate La Nina, they admit the signs are there but its not in the script.
‘Most climate model outlooks indicate a neutral ENSO state is likely to continue for the remainder of the southern hemisphere winter and spring despite tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures slowly cooling over the coming six months. This may be contributing to the wetter than average climate outlooks for parts of Australia.’
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WXcycles,
personally I doubt there can be any decision till after August at the earliest. Underwater masses of warm/cool water do not seem to indicate a radical change in the near future.
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Yeah, agree, no one knows, just discounting the idea the anyone does.
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Less hurricanes over the past quarter century, Zoe gets the accolades.
https://notrickszone.com/2021/07/09/comprehensive-data-analysis-shows-hurricane-hours-is-cyclic-has-fallen-significantly-past-25-years/
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Yes EG and BOM graph here shows a lower trend for Aussie region since 1970 or half a century.
OH and 2015 to ’16 season was the only season to have NO severe cyclones over the last 50 years.
Again DUH and yet we’re supposed to be facing an EXISTENTIAL treat??? BTW good work AGAIN from Zoe.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
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Yet BOM now routinely calls Coral Sea coastal troughs (with no eye or even closed circulation) a Category 2 to 3 named ‘cyclone’. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen them do it. They’re more brazen than any other met agency on Earth at creating fake and misleading cyclone ‘records’. The truth is we had about half the number of real cyclones BOM has named during the past 25 years. I’ve literally seen them call a sheared-up and degenerated tropical storm a category 5 cyclone!
Got to wonder why they’re so mortified by the observational truths?
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As usual the BoM “scientists” are trying to make the data fit the required narrative of there being more man-made cyclones. Reporting actual observational data is a poor career move, likely to result in being sacked.
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Effectively, they are “homogenising” the number of cyclones just as they do with temperature so they can falsely claim higher temperatures or more cyclones.
Is there an honest source of data from which the actual number of true cyclones can be determined?
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When we do get more cooling, as will happen under a sleepy Sun and a series of La Nina,
… It really will make their “Climate Models” look extraordinarily and ignorantly wrong !
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And then what?
Most people are so profoundly ignorant and brainwashed, they will neither understand, nor care.
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ps, found this amongst my downloaded climate graphs.. No idea where its from
Red seems to be UAH data.
https://i.postimg.cc/43cq82n8/Models-vs-reality.png
But certainly makes those models look totally meaningless if it turns out to be correct.
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KNMI climate explorer which is credited in the image is a tool managed by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute which “offers products and services that contribute to the safety, accessibility, sustainability and prosperity of the Netherlands” –no accounting for taste but for what it’s worth I’d pass.
20
How will people be able to keep warm only relying on unreliable and expensive solar and windmill power?
The only ones that will be able to afford to be warm will be the Elites like Socialist Billionaires and other Leftist leadership.
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Isn’t that part of the plan? Nothing to do with care of the environment as wind and solar actually degrade it in many ways.
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BLM supporters have been preparing for a while …setting cities on fire to keep the population warm at night.
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I doubt they had such a noble motive.
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While the West freezes in the dark, the Chinese will be enjoying the full benefits of unrestricted use of coal, gas, nuclear and hydro power.
Incidentally, the Chinese hydro projects give them the added benefit of controlling much of the world’s water supply, mostly via Tibet.
China is most grateful to their slave army of useful idiots of the West (some of whom even post here) for propagandising on their behalf.
140
The Chinese will be enjoying the food supply contracts they’ll have with the African nations they have cultivated good relations with.
40
At last!
remember this one?
https://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/global-cooling-coming-archibald-uses-solar-and-surface-data-to-predict-4-9c-fall/
or this one:
https://joannenova.com.au/2013/03/has-the-world-started-cooling-hints-from-4-of-5-global-temperature-sets-say-it-might-have/
or this one:
https://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-viii-new-solar-model-predicts-imminent-global-cooling/
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“The AMO should gradually move into its negative phase by 2026.”
Then we should see some genuine cooling elgordo. Not sure what the PDO is doing at the moment.
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A double dip La Nina would very likely create an extended cool period that would remove the effects of the super El Nino of 2016 and resurrect the pause, but this time a 25 year pause. This would be a very amusing outcome when you consider we were told that the warming after the super El Nino of 2015 was from CC and would continue onward and upward in line with extreme model predictions, rather than fall back to a flat line of instrumental denial. We can expect the adjustment bureau to be working overtime to fix this one.
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This is in line with my #8.1.1.1, the idea that you can ignore major events because everything ‘cancels out’ and the underlying effect of Carbon Dioxide is dominant.
Only a science ignoramus would postulate that you can ignore everything but the one variable which someone insists is the only one which affects the planet and the only one not in balance.
The fact is that CO2 is in constant fast equilibrium and there is no reason to think otherwise. We could not change CO2 levels if we tried and for 33 years we have tried, without the slightest impact of human activity visible in the CO2 record.
So warming produces higher CO2 from the oceans where 98% is floating around, dissolved. Nothing could be simpler.
Except the IPCC says ‘industrial’ CO2 is special and is trapped in the atmosphere forever. My father once told me Santa Claus did not exist. So I drove to the pub and drowned my sorrows.
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🙂
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The other thing worth considering is that CO2 is heavier and industrial CO2 falls fairly close to the power plant, which is value adding fertiliser.
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What? You thin mass makes CO2 fall to the ground/surface? No. And the exchange Tdef is talking about does not require it.
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” would remove the effects of the super El Nino of 2016″
Temperatures are already back to the pre El Nino level.
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Good news for Australia.
Really, really bad news for California – where some eejit has already let all the water out of the reservoirs.
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Once in a while we still get a heavy rain season with a LaNina. We need it.
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Allan, equipment may be the answer – our thermometers measure and record microbursts of heat and the BOM’s process is not to average out temperatures to eliminate those records, thus giving us perverted and to high highs. At the same time, they were found, in some cold climate areas, to not be recording temperatures below what the BOM had decided was the ultimate cold temp -10 degrees I think – thus giving us perverted and too high lows.
Add to that the history changing ACORN Sat one and two that have cooled old temperature records to bring them into line with the current narrative, and eliminating the Federation drought from our official records, no wonder hot records are easy to break.
So keeping in mind that the BOM records have a disproportionate impact on global surface temperature records, higher temperature records have a bias over low records. Other country’s official records are accused of being similarly tampered with so what is there to believe? All I know is that we are having another cold year in Australia that will by December be another record hot year!
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I’m predicting neutral for 2021/22. Now settle down, everybody. A run of La Ninas does not mean the woke are wrong. Global cooling is not just around the corner…but it will eventually occur, no matter how much CO2 is produced by China and India. BE PATIENT
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Global cooling has arrived, illustrated by the absence of El Nino, and its not unusual to have back to back La Nina.
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No Iff’s or Butts. Cooling is coming. It’s not what I believe, but what I know.
Regards
Climate Heretic
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According to data complied y Nick stokes at Moyhu, all the temperature anomaly indexes have been in decline since approximately February 2020.
Here is today’s image available on the Moyhu page referenced.
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Yep, The effect of the El Nino/Big Blob has all but gone
Atmospheric temperatures are back down to where they were before that event.
With a sleepy Sun and the La Nina, AMO starting its downward cycle, almost certain cooling to continue.
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A little known fact [tip] is that BOM puts out a climate driver update every 2 weeks with what used to be 8 sources.
BOM, CanSIPS, ECMWF,JMA, METEO,NASA, NOAA,UKMO.
which gave predictions for the next 4 months.
You can still see the 8 in 5/1/2021, 19/1/2021 Climate Driver Updates but not for long because it will be archived and disappeared.
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NASA’s problem was that it predicted an ongoing prolonged La Nina which did not sit well with the BOM who at that time were predicting neutral going to neutral conditions.
They used to say [8 models] Jan 2021.
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“La Niña is likely at its peak with all but one of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) by the end of the southern autumn in 2021”
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So they wiped NASA out in following months.
That’s right just wiped it out.
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From the 2/2/2021 the quote was for 7 models only and remains that way.
Years of NASA comparison down the drain because it did not agree with the BOM line.
Can anyone hold these hypocritical clowns accountable, Jo?
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“The 2020–21 La Niña has likely passed its peak, with all of the [7] international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipating NINO3.4 will return to borderline or neutral values by mid-autumn.”
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The funny thing is now in their latest update, BOM, now neutral, is the second most bullish for a La Nina return after NOAA of a return to La Nina.
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Still without including NASA.
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Would David be able to access those ecords/predictions?
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Cool futures fund here we go!
00