JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

8.6 out of 10 based on 26 ratings

465 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Sunni Bakchat

    Yesterday’s posted headline was “The world watches Australia and NZ tracking to zero — can we extinguish Coronavirus?”.

    The number of reported COVID-19 cases is not a very useful indicator of anything unless you also know something about how tests are being conducted” See Ref: (1).

    Australia’s Chief Medical Officer stated (of the new testing regime) yesterday “anybody with acute respiratory symptoms, cough, sore throat, runny nose, cold symptoms, flu-like symptoms, can get tested”. Statistically, a road train can be driven through the errors of this approach in eradicating Covid-19. See ref: (2).

    Are Australian Government Epidemiologists attempting to identify the symptomatic patients who may be in harm’s way to; continue flattening the curve, eliminate the virus or something else entirely they have yet to disclose? Is there a temporal understanding of the long-term mortality rate and long-term economic cost of the trade-offs involved?

    Asking the necessary questions again to get to the truth;

    If the increased testing is not random, how will the health authorities be able to obtain a sample of the population that can be extrapolated to show the overall rate of infection in Australia?

    Would some people decide not to be tested?

    If testing is now more broadly available to the general population in Australia, will this extend to those who are in quarantine after arriving from overseas? In addition;

    “Will the possibility of false negatives or false positives be treated differently between the two groups. If so, why?”

    Some commenters are arguably living in a fanciful thought bubble as distant from reality as Australia is from the rest of the world. The virus is treating Australians just the same as its treating people of other countries. Some however think they can treat the virus differently to other countries. The falsity lies in flawed assumptions and the degree of desire to get to the truth. It’s time to ditch the political idea that any country is “unique” insofar as Covid-19 is concerned. The proposition is entirely lacking in any conclusive substantiating evidence at this time. In fact, I’d assert it has been entirely debunked for the foreseeable future. The virus continues to spread, leading Australia on a slower and more manageable path to herd immunity. It can only be hoped the cost of containment going forward is dramatically lowered in order for Australia to maintain a high standard of living.

    “Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything” (3). To which you could add, treat numbers well and they’ll tell you everything.

    (1) https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
    (2) https://youtu.be/5a_cf21f6N4
    (3) https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&q=gregg+easterbrook+quotes&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgFuLUz9U3MCqKNzNUQjC1xLOTrfQLUvMLclKBVFFxfp5VYWl-SeoiVon0otT0dIXUxOKS1KKkovz8bAWwTDEArl-1skwAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjf5e6C54PpAhWCz4UKHV-0B7oQMTAbegQIEhAC&biw=1675&bih=867&dpr=2

    96

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Academic confusing malinformation
      Nonsense from more foreigners
      Trying to tell us here in Australia
      What to do with this foreign CCP Wuhan virus..

      We are not allowed here to say bluntly
      In an Australian way
      What we think of this.
      We have to be polite.
      Big Sigh !

      815

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Herd immunity is not for individuals, it is for the herd and comes about after the event;
      Individuals either have resistance to a disease and they survive, or else they have not the resistance and they secumbe. Herd immunity is not an aquired attribute until after the disease has run it’s course and killed off all those without immunity.
      As such it is not an option for a civilised country. We must continue to do what we have been doing with some high degree of success here in Australia.
      Furthermore, it is not about how ‘the virus is treating Australians’ but rather how Australians are treating the virus. Testing is still in it’s early days and as such is not perfect. But it is another tool in our attempt to stamp out this virus. And yes every country is unique in it’s circumstance and demography. So please stop whinging and admit that for once Australia is doing well.
      GeoffW

      152

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        A very good point about herd immunity Geoff.

        71

        • #
          Sunni Bakchat

          Kalm Keith,

          Execept for the fact Geoffrey’s definition of Herd Immunity is a farrago. Here is an accurate definition from Wikipedia (1):

          Herd Immunity is “a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune. In a population in which a large proportion of individuals possess immunity, such people being unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, chains of infection are more likely to be disrupted, which either stops or slows the spread of disease. The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection. Individuals can become immune by recovering from an earlier infection or through vaccination. Some individuals cannot become immune due to medical reasons, such as an immunodeficiency or immunosuppression, and for this group herd immunity is a crucial method of protection. Once a certain threshold has been reached, herd immunity gradually eliminates a disease from a population.”

          If you look at the demographics Jo put up on who we (Aussies) know has had Covid-19, we see the older demographic (>60yo) borne the brunt of deaths (3). This is also the case in other countries where management of older cohorts has been poor (See Raving’s comments on Ontario and recent reports from NYC). Many people on this blog are in the >60yr demographic judging by comments and are sometimes concerned by comments they apparently don’t fully understand. Comments they might assume are callous with regard to their demographic. Fear however is not a good promoter of rationality. This is the demographic with much higher mortality rates from, you guessed it, old age. In other words, something is going to kill this demographic, sooner or later. Much later preferably.

          Then we have the younger cohorts, who are generally speaking, the asymptomatics and mildly symptomatics. They are just under 80% of the population (2). Very few of this demographic have died despite the weight of heavily restricted testing, according to Jo’s published reference (4), being strongly skewed to a far younger demographic. If we’re going to inevitably end up with Herd Immunity, regardless of how much time, money and energy is expended on this obsessive whack-a-mole folly going forward; we might be better off focussing on some demographic separation (eg. mandatory PPE in the presence of and worn by the elderly)(5), to obtain Herd Immunity in the circa 80% of those who are far less likely to die from the virus. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone contemplate such an economically sensible possibility yet.

          The more nuanced question for this blog, which steers clear of paradigmatic false dilemmas and dichotomies in relation to eradication, is not whether the virus can be eliminated, but how quickly and cost effectively this can be achieved, with minimal long term loss of life, before loss of immunity occurs. To suggest many lives have been saved in a short period only to have a similar amount die over the longer term would clearly be a fallacious, zero sum proposition.

          (1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
          (2) https://profile.id.com.au/australia/five-year-age-groups
          (3) https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_22.pdf
          (4) https://www.covid19data.com.au/demographics
          (5) https://twitter.com/jperla/status/1244192614959599622/photo/1

          77

          • #

            Geoffrey made an excellent point.

            No matter how it’s wrapped in verbiage, herd immunity is a hard sell in a democracy. People do not want this. They stopped sending their kids to school even when the experts said it was safe. They stopped visiting Chinese restaurants too. (If only we stopped the flights, that might have saved those businesses.) Polls are strongly, massively, in favor of stopping the virus.

            The average punters risk profile is not your risk profile Sunni. They don’t want to live in a country where half a generation live in fear or in permanent plastic coats. You may not like our 80 year olds, but we do.

            And everyone wants to know the answer to the obvious cost benefit question. Got some data? Thought not.

            PS: are we still singing the kill-off-the-old-folks-tune? I thought we had moved on…

            156

            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Jo, If it’s an excellent point, i’d like to know in what way, as Gregory’s understanding of Herd Immunity is quite obviously incorrect. The verbiage is not mine, but a published independent definition.

              Herd Immunity can be achieved in many ways and may well be what ultimately occurs in Australia. Is the science settled on this? Am i a denier now? It is not the false dichotomy you are putting forth. Perhaps there is a balance in how matters are approached. Who’s against ultimately stopping the virus?

              When it comes to Risk profile, I would suggest I’m at far greater risk than about 70% of the population as i’m over fifty. Where does the average lie in the statistical pie?

              Who said half a generation live in plastic coats. That’s your characterisation. I’m suggesting a pragmatic solution that protects the vulnerable and doesn’t penalise those who are at far lower risk. Are these thoughts now taboo? I have plenty of older members in my family who are around 80 years old.

              I don’t have data. Then again i’m not an Econometrician. Common sense suggests the present path is very costly and money does not grow on trees. It’s incumbent on society to make the best use of scarce resources. I wouldn’t flush my children’s financial future down the toilet chasing a rainbow and I think many Australians would agree with that sentiment.

              You’re singing the kill off the old folks tune, I’m trying to play something all together more symphonic.

              36

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Adding to the above, world leading Immunologist Ian Frazer made the following comments recently in addition to asserting elsewhere Herd Immunity was inevitable;

                “many of us will contract a mild version of this coronavirus, but most of us will survive. He said if the hospital systems aren’t overloaded we should be able to save lives.
                This is a fairly infectious virus and I think it would be highly difficult to contain it even with all of the measures that we’re now putting in place in Australia.”

                Ian Frazer is himself in the high risk group. Is he to be accused of wanting to kill 80 year olds?

                https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/coronavirus-professor-ian-frazer-immunologist-says–covid19-vaccine-a-while-away/7d2f6550-b683-4326-b612-483997d0f277

                46

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                That interview with Farsier was published a month ago.
                It is dated information
                And at this point in time where Australia has basically destroyed this bloody virus
                It is MALINFORMATION.

                I wonder what Frasier thinks NOW ?

                PS: I not respect you pushing such malinformation .
                It is trolling.

                45

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                True Science.
                Is.

                Never.

                Out.

                Of.

                Date.

                40

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                79 is disconnected from it’s original connection.

                20

              • #
                Raving

                in my experience physicists are seldom if ever wrong and when they do it ends badly.

                They go astray by not defining the problem correctly. They make mistakes pertaining to a situation by asking the wrong question.

                10

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                What great news Sunni Bakchat ..Thanks …i was not aware of Ian Frazer.

                From the article…””In my lifetime, I can count seven new viruses that have arrived and we don’t have vaccines for most of them yet. This is quite a common event in human history, a plague if you like, of a new virus,” Professor Ian Frazer said.

                “Professor Frazer helped create the HPV vaccine that helps save millions of women from cervical cancer around the globe, and was named Australian of the Year in 2006.”

                62

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Frasier, “7 new viruses have arrived and we don’t have vaccines for most of them’
                So what ? If they don’t kill or make patients gravely ill, they don’t matter.
                Meanwhile what does Frasier think NOW, a month later of the CCP Wuhan virus ?
                I just did a search for anything published.He has been strangely silent since then.

                06

              • #
                joseph

                ES,

                Here’s an article on the HPV vaccine that may be of interest . . . . . there’s a lot more to this story too . . . . .

                https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/bombshell-study-questioning-hpv-vaccine-efficacy-appears-as-the-uks-cervical-cancer-rates-rise-in-young/

                20

              • #
                Raving

                Just reiterating Sunni,

                1. Hospitals are occupied and hitting maximum capacity with 50% of people below the age of 60 years. The hospitals are being swamped by the general population and not thoseof age 60+

                2. Those in long term homes are getting infected early and at a higher rate thanthe overallpopulation. They tend not togoto hospitals and frequently remain untested and uncounted

                It means that however bad or good the situation is with old people, the swamping of capacity is occuring with those infected below the age of 60

                As the world is nowflockingtoopen up, I suppose we will do the experiment of a secondary wave.

                Good luck to Australia for bucking the pressure and remaining closed down. I doubt that will happen.

                There is going to be another wave

                62

              • #
                Peter C

                There doesn’t have to be another wave. And we can have some relaxation of social restriction. Wear masks when using public transport and in shops etc. Keep hand washing and sanitiser.

                These things have been shown to work in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.

                70

              • #
                Raving

                A second wave already in Singapore and Japan.

                Worldwide there is an enormous groundswell to reopen. Don’t believe that the push will be stopped, regardless of it being the correct or incorrect decision to do so.

                Do not believe that Australia can buck this worldwide trend. The pressure to join everyone else will be too great

                13

              • #
                DOC

                Raving, isn’t Singapore’s ‘second wave’ due to the influx of foreign laborers that are
                housed in close quarters living? That, if so, is an imported load of infections and not one
                classed, perhaps, as a second wave arising internally due to policy management effects.

                Rather, this is a gigantic policy reinforcement for Australia, and NZ, that we have to really intensely scrutinise anybody coming in when how we reopen those external borders we have fought for for so many years, at great expense and international damnation, to protect and close. In particular, one would expect the rest of the Western world, as it comes out of this pandemic, will be very careful over every person crossing their borders, especially of those the CCP try to send , ‘on business’. The question is, ‘Whose business?’ ‘Once bitten, a million times shy!’

                Beware the globalists, still.

                80

              • #
                Raving

                Replying to DOC #79

                Am in favor of maintaining a global lockdown myself.

                What I cannot ignore is hearing all the voices, here in Canada and elsewhere to reopen now. The politicians warning about lifting too soon will get ignored. Nobody wants to be left behind in the dash to reopen

                Once the U.S. and Europe reopen we are stuck with a dirty world. Lack of a vaccine or cure will not stop further growth to 60-80% infection

                Expect there will be further waves with many more deaths. Ultimately this will encourage rather than discourage reopening as the pool of infected grows ever larger

                So how is this story going to end up … the rest of the world open trading and travelling with 5% to 60% total infection rate … Australia Taiwan and N.Z. sitting bravely, isolated from the rest of the world?

                No way. Sorry 🙁

                30

              • #
                el gordo

                Yes we can, sorry to disappoint but Oceania wants to be Covid-19 free.

                If it means keeping tourists out then so be it, because it also suggests that Australians won’t be travelling abroad and can finally get to enjoy their own country.

                Tourists will be allowed in but maybe quarintined for two weeks in a luxury hotel at their own expense.

                30

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                The huge number of dead
                Will have consequences also.

                I’m sorry to say it,
                But we here in Australia & New Zealand will feel safe and secure
                Behind our strong borders & quarantine rules.
                And watch with sadness
                The dead mount up elsewhere in the world.

                23

              • #
                Peter C

                No second wave in Singapore nor Japan.

                In both countries the no. of new cases has been trending down since mid April (according to Coronavirus Worldometer).

                Taiwan and Hong Kong have done even better.

                60

              • #
                RickWill

                You will see in this more recent video that this “expert” dingbat is slowly changing his view:
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGmWPArhESE

                He was asked – “Think we’re going OK?” He answered “Yeah I think we’re doing pretty well .. doing what we’re told will help us get through this”

                Not quite 180 degree turnaround but a big change from everyone will be infected.

                This guy is in the business of developing vaccines. Imagine if there were no viruses in need of vaccines.

                31

              • #
                WXcycles

                Adding to the above, world leading Immunologist Ian Frazer made the following comments recently in addition to asserting elsewhere Herd Immunity was inevitable. … Is he to be accused of wanting to kill 80 year olds?

                Sunni, get a grip.

                Have a look back a Jo’s earlier posts, she made perfectly clear from very early on that ‘herd-immunity’ would be the natural end-point of anything Australia does from here to respond to this virus. All of her (and others) many comments are coming from that position and understanding.

                You’re not providing new revelations, you’re just tediously provoking with more stock high-handed berating conceit. The question is, by what path we get to the end-point. It’s you who’s not paying attention to the discussion going on, not everyone else.

                52

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Bill in OZ,

                You state “That interview with Farsier (sic) was published a month ago. That interview with Farsier (sic) was published a month ago. It is dated information, and at this point in time where Australia has basically destroyed this bloody virus It is MALINFORMATION. I wonder what Frasier thinks NOW ?”

                Well here’s another interview from under two weeks ago where he even more emphatically reiterates the same views. His comments on Herd Immunity are at 10:53 minutes elapsed – https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/professor-ian-frazer-on-coronavirus/id157670116?i=1000471373010

                Please keep your personal insults to yourself.

                [Sunni, your comments drip with smug insults dressed in fancy words. Please keep your insults to yourself too. – jo]

                36

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Raving, your comment at 9:56am;

                “1. Hospitals are occupied and hitting maximum capacity with 50% of people below the age of 60 years. The hospitals are being swamped by the general population and not thoseof age 60+”

                Which hospitals and where? Can you provide references showing mortality rates that differ from most of those in the world showing over 60’s bearing the brunt of the illness?

                “2. Those in long term homes are getting infected early and at a higher rate thanthe overallpopulation. They tend not togoto hospitals and frequently remain untested and uncounted”

                I’m not sure how many times you’re going to repeat this. It’s been discussed for several weeks now. Its understood and I’m sure most here are very sympathetic to your circumstances. I certainly am. I think its a tragedy.

                “It means that however bad or good the situation is with old people, the swamping of capacity is occuring with those infected below the age of 60”

                Again, please provide the evidence.

                “As the world is nowflockingtoopen up, I suppose we will do the experiment of a secondary wave.”

                Perhaps a third, fourth and fifth too?

                32

              • #

                Sunni,

                Death rates are ten times higher in overwhelmed hospitals. Those who read my site discussed this a month ago: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/delay-death-countries-that-act-fast-reduce-the-fatality-rate-by-10x/

                Your repeat implication that the over 60s are irrelevant citizens who “can bear the brunt” is a callous bore. As if anyone should have to provide statistics showing that younger people are hurt worse than older people to be considered worth discussing.

                64

              • #

                The rainbow you chase is “herd immunity” without a treatment or vaccine or even a medical understanding of the long term damage that may occur on up to 20% of the population.

                The ethical dilemma you claim is “irrational” is that we live in a democracy and both polls and actions show most voters don’t want to live in fear when there is another option. They want grandchildren to be able to see the faces of their grandparents and give them a hug. Is that so ridiculous? Sorry if that affects your investment plan.

                Denial might be someone who thinks a nation with under 20 new cases a day should not bother to see if they can extinguish this virus to zero, then inspire other nations to join us with flights, holidays, and business as normal.

                84

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Rick he really is a person committed to vaccination isn’t he ?
                Perhaps in his heart of hearts he wonders whether his line of work
                Will become irrelevant if we destroy the virus completely in Australia.

                Sunni, your comment at #1.2.1.18 is dealt with by Jo & Rick.

                Re, your claimed citizenship of Australia,
                I suggest you have earned a ‘cancellation’.
                Why ? Well you are living in Geneva in Switzerland and
                Completely disregarding of what almost all people here in Australia want:
                The complete destruction of this foreign CCP Wuhan Virus.

                23

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Jo, perhaps we can extinguish fruit flies and inspire other nations, but not so with viruses. There will always be clusters and breakouts etc once the proverbial cat is out of the bag.

                24

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                “herd Immunity”: It was still a fundamental biological principal with many facets when last checked, and it cannot simply be misrepresented by calling it a “rainbow”.

                Lets keep collecting the data, and lets keep finding new and more up to date medical papers/studies, and stay away from political squabbling at this very important time.
                .

                34

              • #

                Environment Skeptic: “we can count seven new viruses that have arrived and we don’t have vaccines for most of them yet.”

                … and the bad news is that viruses that aren’t easy to make a vaccine for as the same viruses that it may be hard to generate herd-immunity too.

                So Frazers point is a reason to wonder about whether herd-immunity is possible and a reason to extinguish this virus if it is reasonably achievable, which for Australia, it may be.

                52

              • #
                Raving

                Sunni, some data. sHall supply more tomorrow

                RESULTS
                Twenty-three days after the first positive test result in a resident at this skilled nursing facility, 57 of 89 residents (64%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Among 76 residents who participated in point-prevalence surveys, 48 (63%) tested positive. Of these 48 residents, 27 (56%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing; 24 subsequently developed symptoms (median time to onset, 4 days). …As of April 3, of the 57 residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 11 had been hospitalized (3 in the intensive care unit) and 15 had died (mortality, 26%)

                https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457?query=RP

                20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                E S, You suggest that we
                “stay away from political squabbling at this very important time.”

                I agree with you completely.
                The problem is that we here in Oz have already settled on our goal & strategy.
                Put simply it is “DESTROY THIS FOREIGN VIRUS”
                It is being pursued by all our governments
                And has massive public support.

                Despite this being the settled public policy
                A few individuals here have attempted to denigrate and white ant it;
                And have it replaced with this ‘herd Immunity” …
                And of course others here ( Including me ) have come out to oppose them.

                11

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                WXcycles, your point at 2:43pm, thanks for clarifying. I have not seen the end point comments before. When were they made?

                11

              • #
                WXcycles

                WXcycles, your point at 2:43pm, thanks for clarifying. I have not seen the end point comments before. When were they made?

                You’re welcome, but you can look those up in the older posts on this topic just as quickly as I can, if you’re interested in checking on that. 😉

                00

              • #

                WXcycles says: “Jo’s earlier posts, she made perfectly clear from very early on that ‘herd-immunity’ would be the natural end-point of anything Australia

                I don’t think I would have done that — sorry if you got that impression. I’ve never believed that was a “must have” option. Indeed, in comments I remember saying over and over that we don’t have herd immunity to Rabies, Ebola, SARS, Leprosy, blah blah blah.

                We may get herd immunity in a few years after the virus mutates or we get a vaccine, but I have consistently said we need neither herd-immunity nor a vaccine to manage this.

                As I keep repeating for the 43,455th time.

                We will get a solution and it may look like CRISPR, Monoclonals, RNAi, Antivirals, Stem cells. Yada yada yada. I know few commenters here are biotech people, and presumably no one is convinced. Probably I should spend less time repeating my answers in comments, and just post on the 4000 stories each week of different approaches to fixing this.

                My first keynote conference speeches were on the Future of Medicine and how biotech is undergoing a medical revolution like the info tech one in the 60s.

                The virus is solvable. We have the code. We have the tools. All the defeatist talk is just the old tech, 1918 flu plan speaking.

                11

            • #
              Raving

              No matter what one says, herd immunity is being pushed for childten. They get over it easily and might even show no symptoms. This is the rational for Quebec to consider reopening nurseries before other entities. Similar sentiment in Denmark and Spain

              No consideration given to children infecting parents

              80

              • #
              • #
                Raving

                @Sense 1.2.1.1.1

                Fair enough. The question of how this virus spreads and by who is an important and subtle.Takes a lot of time and work to get a stable sense of this.

                Also takes a week or more for infections to spread through long term care homes and meat packers. Alternately a single person can spread to dozens of others in less than an hour

                They are reopening schools now. Parents wipe the noses of their children

                Let’s hope your reference is reliably correct

                31

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                This is the salient point from your link, Sense:

                “The researchers believe that since children typically have only mild symptoms, they may transmit the virus far less than infected adults.”

                And the operative words are:

                “believe”;

                “may”.

                Sounds like a clone of a climate “researcher” talking there.

                And published in nothing less than the green-left Guardian.

                Believe it at your peril.

                00

            • #
              farmerbraun

              For as long as this situation – viz ” aged facilities lack infection control, lack PPE, lack staff who are off sick and underpaid, lack spare beds to isolate infected residents and also might have policies that discourage tranferring sick residents to hospital care” – was allowed to continue, then we were indeed singing the tune that you suggest , albeit in a different key to make it seem like something else.

              30

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Farmerbraun, I agree with you but the delay in implementation doesn’t make the idea wrong. I said in my original comment in relation to older folks dying “much later preferably”. It’s not me making the decision to disincentivise or deny health resources to those who could be saved; and as far as i know the hospitals around Hamilton aren’t full, are they?

                23

              • #
                Raving

                Fortunately a great deal can be done to improve the plight of the elderly home resident, if acted upon very quickly.

                Those places have been underfunded and overstretched in capacity for decades. Big problem everywhere.

                Their vulnerability to epidemic has been predicted many times. People never wanted to spend the money to mitigate the risk.

                Seems that most of the world’s infection statistics are being driven by what occurs in these heavily syaffed long care facilities. It a peculair double whmmy because these are also places where deaths, tests and transport to hospital are also deliberately excluded from pandemic statistic reporting

                Finaly there are even more old people that live in their own homes and retirement communities. Not sure how the infection is moving into these enclaves

                20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                But where is this FB ?
                Each country has different policies on this issue.
                Last night read a post from Dr Malcom Kendrick in the UK
                I was horrified and appalled. It seems that in the UK
                A policy of keep the hospitals empty
                Has lead to many CCP Wuhan 19 virus infected elder citizens
                being dumped in aged care centers to spread the disease in them.

                https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/

                That is not what is happening in Australia

                So I suggest we need to be specific when talking about this.

                40

              • #
                farmerbraun

                my comment at 6.24a.m. refers. (Not yet released)
                What % of covid-19 deaths in Australia are in “care” facilities?

                50

            • #
              Gary

              What alot crap jo,no one wants to kill of old people, if you want to help the elderly, tell doctors to stop over medicating them, encourage them to be outside,and to form social groups and listen to them, they have been on this earth for awhile. Now for something different, I was on my way home from perth standing in a train when a young person, a girl about 18 or 19 stood up and asked if I would like her seat, I said no thanks and a few minutes later a young bloke did the same, I told him thanks but I was good,two thoughs came to me, theirs hope for the younger generation and crikey I must be looking old and that was about 5 or 6 years ago, I’ve added this to let you know, I’m no spring chicken myself, although I don’t consider myself old at almost 65. I can hear my (this is for you Steve)135 hp bike calling me,it’s actually the latest 1250 GSA BMW, a great bike. I’m looking for an adventure after this antisocial distancing crap is over.

              45

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Gary,

                I had the same thing happen to me in New York in about 2007.
                We were on a short ride, my wife was seated, a young bloke offered me his seat.
                I was shocked, but thanked him and said I was fine.
                When we got off I observed to my wife that Australia was like that until the early sixties.
                Now in Oz in the last week on this blog I’ve been called “G” and a “Boomer” but it seems that the “lady” thought it was PC O.K. because she herself was a Boomer, even if just a Junior Boomer.

                Victimhood Rules.

                KK u.g.

                40

              • #

                Gary, anyone pushing for “herd immunity” in a disease that has no proven treatment nor vaccine is pushing to either lock up people over 60 – imprisoned in their homes — or kill a significant percentage of them, a leave another percentage with likely permanent loss of lung capacity or cognitive ability, and shortened lifespan. (Common in ICU survivors).

                Now I could turn my blog into a preventative health blog talking about the ways our medical system kills through ignoring nutrition and sun and through over prescription, but I am only one person. Hard to solve all the dumb decisions and power games and corruption of medicine at the same time as the renewable green ones.

                Australia has a choice now — risk the freedom and health of a third of the population by opening flights up with no quarantines, or get back 98% of our freedom and economy but miss out on holidays in Bali and tourists from overseas.

                11

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Yes Sunni.

            It may be a paradox, but we can be thankful that here in Twenty Twenty, now that the Global Warming threat has been sidelined, we can clearly identify the number one threat to Human lifeforms as being, finally;

            Old Age.

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          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Sunni.

            Eventually we all die.

            The only thing that concerns me is that many old people are dying after spending their last days and hours in total isolation from their families and loved ones.

            If society can’t sort this out then maybe we aren’t a society after all.

            122

            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Kalm Keith,

              I completely agree with you. My concern is that many older people, knowing they may effectively be quarantined if they are tested positive, would rather stay at home to die or take their chances with the virus. There are stories of family members in some countries being fitted with protective equipment to say good bye to their older relatives. Which i consider to be very sensible and humane. From other countries there are stories of people being refused access to their relatives in their final hours which i consider to be disgusting.

              One of my points is that a society that does the latter to people, needs to a have a very good look at the incentives it is putting in place. As you say, if they can’t sort it out, maybe we aren’t a society after all.

              The second point is that 80% of the population see this virus as not much worse than a common cold. These are generally younger people. Herd Immunity begins at 50%. There are enough people in the community to get to herd immunity without putting older lives at risk. For this heresy, this heterodoxy, there is wailing and gnashing of teeth from many around here; despite the fact many leading authorities in the field believe this is how matters will play out. Older people can be protected as they are at greatest risk of harm, until such a time as treatments or vaccines become available, and herd immunity leads to the virus petering out. It is not an either/or argument. There is sensible middle road in all of this that is being neglected. Where are the wise heads?

              45

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Yes.

                There Is a sensible middle road but unfortunately to get there needs a bit of thinking and common sense analysis.

                Those qualities have on holiday.

                51

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Gone

                20

              • #
                WXcycles

                One of my points is that a society that does the latter to people, needs to a have a very good look at the incentives it is putting in place. As you say, if they can’t sort it out, maybe we aren’t a society after all.

                Such a hypocrite, Sunni. You pontificate about being a real society, then immediately you’re back to pushing for a quasi let-it-rip approach to rapid herd-immunity. Opaque you are not.

                Have a read:

                http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/the-world-watches-australia-and-nz-tracking-to-zero-can-we-extinguish-coronavirus/#comment-2318978

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              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                WXcycles,

                Again you are mischaracterising my comments to suit your own narrative. I stand by my comments as reasonable and sensible. Moreover, constantly accusing others of moral failure without substantiation doesn’t cut it.

                02

              • #
                Geoffrey Williams

                Sunni, you state above . . . ‘Herd immunity begins at 50%. There are enough people in the community to get herd immunity without putting older lives at risk’

                Presumably your 50% is a reference to the proportion of people who have been exposed to the virus. Of this 50% most will survive but a small percentage will get very ill and die. So one could say that this group of 50% have achieved herd immunity. OK what about the remaining 50% who are yet to be exposed to the virus. Correct me if I am wrong, but are you implying that this group have somehow aquired herd immunity ?

                I have not tried to take your statement out of context but rather attempting to understand your meaning.
                Regards GeoffW

                00

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Sunni,

            I have little argument on what you say but, as Trump would put it;

            Your comments are biggly oversized.
            🙂

            43

          • #
            Raving

            Sunni, when it comes to herd immunity, things are not as they seem. Infections are growing most rapidly in longterm care homes, those exactsame places which where supposed to be protected when the HI strategy was floated by the UK! Unsurprising but shockingly so, these aged facilities lack infection control, lack PPE, lack staff who are off sick and underpaid, lack spare beds to isolate infected residents and also might have policies that discourage tranferring sick residents to hospital care

            Those who you claim to protect are being killed off first.

            Moreover those non-hospital deaths, and excluded from infection tests postive statistics are kept out of national reporting

            The old folks will be desd long before you gain herd immunity, killed off by high death rates and their vulnerability in environments of rapid spread

            31

            • #
              farmerbraun

              Reporting is the key issue.
              In NZ newly confirmed positive tests for “sars” virus are not recorded as new cases of Covid-19 .
              What are other countries doing?

              21

              • #
                farmerbraun

                Specifically the Result Sheet says:-” patient X does not have Covid-19. The result does not preclude the possibility that patient X has Sars-CoV-2. If condition worsens . . . . etc.”

                So the testing problem is very obvious. The point is that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be ruled in or out. So + tests cannot be included as new cases of Covid-19 , and they are not.

                20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                F B,There is the issue of test sensitivity.
                A currently low level of virus rna
                May not be found.
                But in a few days the pcr test can find a positive
                As the virus load has increased.

                That is why people in 14 day quarantine should be tested multiple times
                Before being released from Quarantine.

                20

            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Raving, I agree with you on the ravages of care homes in Canada at present. It’s a disaster. We’ve discussed it many times on this blog. Its of great interest. Isn’t the question; why are resources not being allocated to these people when they are almost certain to die from infection? Do the authorities understand the virus is mostly spread by micro-droplets over extended periods in confined, poorly ventilated spaces?

              53

              • #
                Raving

                Why? Money

                People and governments dont want to spend money looking after old people. They get hidden away with minimal care. Maybe it is different where you live.

                An epidemic comes along. Those minimally served overpopulated ‘sheltered’ facilities are savaged

                20

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              I agree Raving.

              People do tend to get;

              ” killed off by high death rates “.

              Almost always fatal.

              20

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Raving, why are you misrepresenting the comment?

              “Sunni, when it comes to herd immunity, things are not as they seem.”

              Truly for some; “things are not as they seem” but are mysteriously, something else.

              10

              • #
                Raving

                People are already dying in long term homes whilst the herd immunity outside the home is low. Those old people were supposed to be protected by isolation in long term homes util the herd community outside those homes rose to sufficient levels as to reduce thre chance of attacking the long term home

                It is perverse to wait until the immunity builds up outside these care facilities, when they get infected early on and progress rapidly to their own natural endpoint

                30

          • #
            Raving

            Sunni, some Swedish sensibility https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/26/coronavirus-live-news-trump-steps-back-as-deaths-worldwide-pass-200000

            One thing that has stood out in my inbox over the past two weeks is the amount of emails I receive from Swedish readers. Many have expressed frustration about the international coverage of Sweden’s approach to the coronavirus crisis, pointing out for instance that care home deaths are high in many countries that have imposed strict lockdowns, and insisting that things are not at all “business as usual” in the country.

            To quote one reader from Stockholm who wrote in tonight: “We do not recognise ourselves here at all in your reporting of a totally laissez-faire strategy. We have clear guidelines – which most people follow with common sense. We will have to wait some months to really be able to compare [Sweden’s approach with that of other countries] on even grounds.”

            In places like Canada the aged are locked away into a highly contagious environment, served by workers who move between multiple locked down homes, working without PPG to residents who are not evacuated to hospital after testing positive

            Hope that long term homes in Sweden and elsewhere are doing better.. A 50% of covid19 deaths in elderly Swedes suggests they share similar problems to Canada

            50

          • #
            Geoffrey Williams

            To say that my explanation is a ‘ferrago’ (confused mixture and a hodgepodge) is clearly wrong and ungracious of you to say so. My definition is (3) lines long and yours (10) lines long. I think Wikepeadia suffers from ‘an over definition syndrome’ in it’s attempts to cover everything. My point was to clear up the misunderstanding that exists about the term ‘herd immunity’ and I do not think that I need to add to it. Unfortunately you have not understood my definition. Too bad.
            GeoffW

            30

            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Geoffrey, you can’t make up your own definition of Herd Immunity, or new words like “ferago”, “secumb”, “aquired”. I have indeed understood “your” subjective definition.

              Here’s another definition from the Oxford textbook of Infectious Disease Control if you prefer brevity. “Herd Immunity occurs when a significant proportion of the population (or the herd) has been vaccinated, and this provides protection for unprotected individuals”

              How can you clear up the meaning of the term when you are apparently confused about what it entails e.g. your statement “Herd immunity is not an aquired (sic) attribute until after the disease has run it’s course and killed off all those without immunity.”. What would be the point of Herd Immunity if it “killed off all those without immunity”?

              Suggesting a lack of grace is not germane to the topic being discussed.

              34

              • #

                Chill on the flamewar Sunni. You didn’t have to insult him. The misplaced Farrago reflects your own misreading of his broader point not his.

                The commenter lacking grace in this conversation is the one who suggested people who disagree with himself are fearful, lack understanding, and are irrational. The reasoning was that the old “something is going to kill this demographic” with the claim “people might assume this was callous”. (As if there is any other interpretation?)

                The entire Australian continent so far has a bare handful of new cases today, and someone from overseas comes to lecture us that we are irrational if we don’t want to force older folks to live in fear of catching it, and let this unknown mystery disease run free among our 0 – 60 year olds and where it is known to sometimes cause premature strokes, heart attacks, potentially repeat infections, cancel elective surgery for weeks, and may generate no long term immunity in the quest for a “herd immunity” which may be a fantasy.

                People who read my posts know there are many better options and each week we buy gets new data and new treatments. Please, can the conversation progress instead of repeating the same lines people were saying in February?

                PS: Obviously, gaining herd immunity at this point involves killing off the high risk genes and people with even a temporary lack of immunity in the younger population. Herd Immunity is something large pharmaceutical firms use to argue that we should use vaccines, but we don’t have any. Instead we have better options: live virus-free with closed borders til a treatment is figured out, CRISPR, RNAi, monoclonals, blood plasma, antivirals, stem cells…

                And the only borders we have to close are the ones with countries that have uncontrolled dangerous viruses running free in their populations. Flights from Sydney to NZ are going to be happening months before flights from Stockholm are.

                72

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Jo, I’m going to have to disagree with you.

                Geoffrey’s comments (not geoffrey) were very clearly a confused mixture. As opposed to concise, clear and logical. I attacked the logic of one aspect of his comment and egregiously poor spelling. The rest was left to swing in the breeze. It was he who commenced the personal insults by attaching the term whinger. By defending Geoffrey’s logic, you are defending the notion asserted by Geoffrey “the disease has run it’s course and killed off all those without immunity”. This is clearly false is it not?

                The “something is going to kill this demographic” is a simple statistical reality. Being callous implies disregard. Never once have i shown disregard for those in question. In fact, my comments propose exactly the reverse. They propose a re-allocation of resources in favour of those who are vulnerable as we now have a clearer understanding of who is vulnerable e.g. The Spanish flu killed off young people. This flu kills off old people. The latter is now very clear.

                You say “The entire Australian continent so far has a bare handful of new cases today”. I went to great trouble at the top of this post to refute this assertion by posting material that showed the statistical basis for your assertion is completely flawed. Now I’m the one being personally attacked by the owner of the blog for seeking out the truth. That is hardly civilised behaviour. Your comment might more correctly read “The entire Australian continent so far has a bare handful of REPORTED new cases today based on restrictive limited sampling”.

                New information comes to light on Covid-19 everyday. To suggest we should just move on because it was discussed in February is disappointing. This is just a variation of the “science is settled” fallacy.

                At PS, you are again mischaracterising my comments. Herd Immunity is something people like Ian Frazer discuss without being insulted for doing so.

                11

              • #

                Sunni, defending yourself with flowery language, trivial corrections, long quotes and diluting threads with smug condescension and trite lines like “old people die” means if you did raise a good point about a past post on the wrong thread, you’ll need to rephrase it. It’s been lost in the clutter.

                32

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Sunni,

            I was only commenting on the bit above;

            “As such it is not an option,,,,”

            21

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Perhaps my comment should have included more detail on what I was thinking.

          I took from Geoff’s comment the idea that Herd Immunity is what’s left after everything that’s going to happen has happened.

          What is behind the weaponisation of the term “herd immunity”?

          Some seem to be accusing others of pushing for the deliberate creation of Herd Immunity and saying that is dangerous.

          Not having watched T.V. for several years leaves me a bit uninformed about whether there are people pushing for HI.

          Some people are identifying Herd Immunity intent, HII, in others and accusing them of wanting to kill off old people.

          This kerfuffle around this new weaponised term is just another distraction from the real tasks which are;

          To develop an understanding of how CV19 operates in the body.

          To possibly work out containment/eradication strategies, and

          To then move on in the shining light of truth.

          Haggling over weaponised concepts is something I’ve seen in U.S. public life and it’s sad to see this new disease spread to Australia.

          Best look for the most real, down to earth, path forward.

          KK

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          • #
            Raving

            “Coronavirus: Premier Legault pitches idea of herd immunity”

            https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/coronavirus-legault-prepares-quebecers-for-idea-of-herd-immunity/

            There was some positive reaction to the premier’s pitch. L’Association des pédiatres du Québec issued a statement saying it is in favour of a gradual lifting of the lockdown for children.
            “The scientific community agrees on one point,” the statement said. “COVID-19 is not dangerous for the vast majority of the pediatric population.”

            /Sarc/ Of course kids don’t pass on the infection to their parents teachers and grand parents in horizontal and vertical transmission. It’s just about the kids here

            51

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Quoi?

              10

              • #
                farmerbraun

                This is simply the herd-immunity/elderly die-off approach disguised as something else ; the same as we have in NZ , but a little more blatant.

                40

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Farmerbraun, I am not advocating for elderly die off. I’m arguing for exactly the opposite. A concentration of resources to protect the most vulnerable, who are with the exception of the small group who are immunocompromised, the most vulnerable. Herd Immunity could actually protect the elderly.

                54

              • #
                farmerbraun

                Sunni you misunderstand my intent. I am not advocating for elderly die- off , and neither are you.
                It is the policies which are being enacted which must be seen as leading to that outcome, albeit disguised as “flattening the curve” or “elimination” or “zero tolerance”.

                It is the actions that should be our focus ; not the utterances.

                The other outcome of the current policies is development of herd immunity . But it is officially denied that this is the policy.

                51

            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Raving, wouldn’t you have to ask;

              – How old are the parents? Are they immunocompromised ie. are they at high risk?
              – Can the grandparents stay away from the grandchildren for a period whilst they’re contagious?
              – Are the kids old enough to wear masks to protect their parents and decrease the viral load of any transmission?
              – Does testing come into the equation anywhere?

              44

              • #
                sophocles

                Sunni ;

                To determine immuno-compromisation, you would need to test serum (blood) levels of calcidiol, and until that test is made to prove or disprove the existing level, you have to assume they are Deficient and therefore the victim tested is most likely to be bait for any corona virus.

                Ideal level: 50-80 ng/ml
                Insufficient Level: < 30ng/ml
                Deficient Level: < 20ng/ml
                Seriously Deficient level < 10ng/mk

                The last three levels are an open invitation to acute upper respiratory tract infections — the main causes of death.

                In the absence of such measurements, it has to be assumed that most, if not all deaths, of apparently reasonably healthy elderly are because their calcidiol levels are Deficient and that blaming other unknown underlying conditions is an excuse not a reason. I note absolutely nobody seems to have considered this facet. Everyone seems hung up on the need for a vaccine or anti-viral drugs and economy-wrecking lockdowns instead of a ha’penniworth of accurately targeted prevention.

                “A randomized controlled trial of vitamin D3 supplementation for the prevention of symptomatic upper respiratory tract infections.” Li-Ng
                [ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3805175/ ]

                “Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and the Incidence of Acute Viral Respiratory Tract Infections in Healthy Adults” Sabetta et al 2010
                [ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2885414/ ]

                This has been known for at least the last decade. Ergo: it is not death from a corona virus or any specific corona virus, but death from inflicted ignorance.

                01

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              You write “Are the kids old enough to wear masks to protect their parents and decrease the viral load of any transmission?”
              There are two answers to this bizarre question.
              1: NO NO NO

              2 : the attempt to do means that family life within the home is all about wearing ‘masks’.
              Go try that you for just a few hours in your own home with your kids.

              What you propose replaces the lock down outside the home with lock down inside the family home.
              Wonderfully useful ? No.

              26

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Bill in oz, your comment at 9:18am.

                Not a bizarre question. why don’t you leave it to individual choice.

                23

            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Farmerbraun, your point at 9:04am. Understood and agreed. Actions speak louder than words!

              13

          • #
            Sunni Bakchat

            KK, I get the feeling Herd Immunity has become a rather emotive term. Herd Immunity might come in two years time or it might come in three months time. It could come as a result of a vaccine or as a result of asymptomatic spread we’re very poor at detecting. Testing at the moment is certainly not going to tell us how many people are infected for the reasons Nate Silver very lucidly outlined in his article and the university of Amsterdam video demonstrates. Smart minds suggest the virus won’t be contained. So, to my way thinking it is about managing the spread as best as possible, at the lowest cost, with the least amount of lives lost. We have capital in people who are not affected by the virus and who are already immune. We should build on this immunity and focus on protecting those most at risk. I can’t see this as an unreasonable proposition. Especially given leading minds broadly agree with the strategy.

            54

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Meanwhile in South Australia we have had four days with no new infections
              And well over 50,000 tests done in a population of 1.6 million.
              We are destroying this foreign bit of RNA Sunni.

              https://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/three-zeros-in-a-row-as-more-virus-patients-recover/news-story/985821b6f467af1fbd5f18b78d5892bb

              And the rest of Australia is doing the same.

              And you keep on coming here to white ant
              The strategy which is giving us our normal lives back.
              With foreign sciency junk based ‘evidence’
              For your precious ‘herd immunity’.

              Well good luck Sunni there in Geneva, in Switzerland
              With no borders at all
              May you thrive and prosper
              When faced with all the infectious diseases
              Carried there by all & sundry from anywhere on the planet.

              But somehow I suspect that the practical pragmatic Swiss
              Might check out our success
              And decide to try what we are doing successfully
              And junk their disease prone open borders instead.

              27

            • #
              WXcycles

              ” … Especially given leading minds broadly agree with the strategy. … ”

              Is that right?

              The whole content had 6 new cases today, but you’d preemptively call that failure, and recommend a senseless change of course, because greater failure is certain on the course of virus elimination and reopening. 🙂 And somehow quarantine also will never work, and we’ll all go broke trying, for reasons which can never be explained. 🙂

              Look, we like capitalism, we like profit, but these are non-essential, enough is essential, more than necessary is not, it’s just a means to an end. So is GDP, it has a +/- sign, we prefer a plus sign, but we can take 6 to 12 months of a minus sign, if necessary, with no real concern, because we will catch up very fast and consistently, and are already ahead of most other developed countries in that respect.

              And we can develop and manage other ways to operate profitably. Most of our still operating businesses have already done this, without infecting everyone, it’s working, and you can bet the still non-operating businesses have been figuring out how to compete within the new situation, so they can stay open and evolve if there’s a next time.

              Somehow we manage to figure-out how to do it without a central authority of super-duper “leading minds” which “broadly agree with” your preferred “strategy” … to infect ourselves more broadly and let a few hundred thousand Australia’s go.

              Sorry senior citizens, Sunni said “leading minds” thought it was best if you cark earlier, so suck it up, you’ve detracted from a positive GDP print for too long already and Sunni’s extensive business interests will suffer if you hang about. Now no complaining Gramps, the thinking has all been done for you by Sunni’s “leading-minds” and this was the best course.

              That’s nice.

              31

      • #
        sophocles

        Your points, Geoff, are only valid when a population lives mostly indoors. Most of the deaths directly attributable to Sars-Covr-2 (aka Covid-19) are also attributable to Vitamin D levels in the afflicted being chronically at the levels of Deficiency.

        If those who died had levels well over 33ng/ml such as 38ng/ml, they may well have survived. If their serum levels were of the order of 50ng/ml (the ideal), there is an even higher probability they would never have been infected. It’s a lost opportunity that vit-d levels have never been tested not measured at all during this pandemic as vit-d literally drives our immune systems

        low vit-D levels == low immunity
        low immunity == more deaths

        It’s easy to keep them up: get 0.5 hrs of sunshine on bare skin at least twice a week for white skin and proportionally longer times and more often for those with higher levels of melanin. Supplement for cloudy conditions and then you will see “herd immunity.” Big Pharma, though, will not be happy because so many of their expensive drugs will no longer be necessary!

        Australia and New Zealand are now three months away from our Sickness Season and it takes a while to lift your serum levels to where they are immunologically useful. Start now.

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        • #
          sophocles

          “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”

          That filter is …. lot’s of unspeakable words.

          20

        • #
          Sunni Bakchat

          Sophocles, your comment at 7:15;

          That’s very interesting. Do you have independent data on Vitamin D that overlays with demographics?

          Seems as though we might need a little more application of resources to educating people on Vitamin D to reduce the mortality rate further.

          […As anyone would know if they read my posts. – Jo ]

          31

          • #
            Sunni Bakchat

            Thank you jo, But i was asking Sophocles was i not? Is it possible Sophocles would have further information that adds to the base of knowledge you have written about?

            10

            • #
              sophocles

              Her (Jo’s) post back at the start of April (?) was sufficiently comprehensive to satisfy me. Go read it again.

              Follow up the papers she referenced and then their references. In other words: mount a literature search.

              I’ve pointed to two papers which have 68 references between them. They are scientific papers, not popular press articles, so their lists are to other applicable papers in the literature. I’m sure you’re a sufficiently agile searcher to be able to look up those references and their references. (Duckduckgo I’ve found to be an excellent search engine in the scientific literature field. Google et al tend to lose their concentration …)

              Here’s a third paper for you to play with, with 44 more references:

              “Vitamin D deficiency is a predictor of reduced survival in patients with heart failure; vitamin D supplementation improves outcome” Gotsman et al Feb 2014.
              [ https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1093/eurjhf/hfr175#references-section ]

              Happy hunting … you’ve now got at least 112 more papers to source … Enjoy.

              21

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Thank you Geoff for a clear & blunt explanation of the precious ‘herd immunity’ thingie
        Without any of the scientific verbiage
        I see by Sunni..

        My own suspicion is that his ‘explanation’
        Is an attempt to dominate the conversation
        By unleashing lots of ‘sciency’ confusion.
        Again thanks for your clarity !

        [ It’s great to see a clash of ideas for and against as long as everyone sticks to the subject without straying into opinions on motives . What should be happening is discussion of the topic without either side getting personal .
        Plenty sciency stuff out there on both sides of the subject and of course everyone can have an opinion ,just keep opinions to the subject at hand and not the commentators themselves please .]AD

        .

        38

  • #
    RicDre

    And so it begins:

    Delingpole: Left-Wing Activists Are Trying to Cancel Michael Moore

    https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/04/24/delingpole-left-wing-activists-are-trying-to-cancel-michael-moore/

    Michael Moore turns on climate left with film skewering green energy

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/24/michael-moore-turns-climate-left-film-skewering-gr/

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Delingpole must have stayed up all night figuring that one out, I hate to say it but I figured it out in seconds and said so in the same thread. 🙂

      130

    • #
      TdeF

      The film does not question CO2 driven Global Warming at all. It’s the driving story of the film. Rather the film is a public revelation that Solar and Wind don’t work economically, reliably, sustainably or environmentally. It’s a disaster on every level. And a huge disappointment.

      It seems there is no difference cutting off the top of a mountain for a wind farm and cutting it off for coal.

      To most people that’s been pretty obvious, but it has been a Green crime to say so. Moore clearly believes that Green Energy is making billionaires like Richard Branson and the Koch brothers richer. And famous Green activists like Bill McKibben are a big part of the lie.

      The absurd problem for the Greens, is that everyone already knows it. They have been used. And it’s hard to criticize Moore just for stating the obvious in film. He has broken ranks and admitted the problem which is a crime against the herd, but despite my early reservations, it could be a watershed moment.

      Now the film also states in passing that nuclear is ‘infinite’, which isn’t true either. But at least it is not carbon or fracking. The nuclear industry also says it has no ’emissions’, another blatantly untrue statement which plays to an audience which bought windmills and solar panels and carbon ‘pollution’.

      And the people against everything might just buy the Uranium story because they are out of options. So it’s down another garden path we go.

      With no admission from Moore that Greens are gullible idi*ts. They have just been deceived by their traditional enemies, the billionaires.

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        GD

        Rather the film is a public revelation that Solar and Wind don’t work economically, reliably, sustainably or environmentally. It’s a disaster on every level

        And presented by lefties!

        The video is a great start at publicising the uselessness and damaging effects of wind and solar technology.

        Not to mention the billions wasted on this scam.

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        • #
          toorightmate

          Correction:
          Billions should be trillions or gazilions.

          [ Apologies the filter seems to like you for some reason .]AD

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            The mysterious filter never was understood, least of all by me. Now that I’m no loner moderating I wieh someone would have mercy on an old man and explain it to me in plain English. Please. 🙂

            AZ

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            • #
              Roy Hogue

              The real problem is the same as the one faced by companies that still have a lot of Cobol or Fortran code hanging around. It’s critical to their operation, it’s been modified nearly to death and not only would it be prohibitive cost wise to rewrite it you could get it wrong easily and dare not put your business at risk by re dong it in a modern language. While I was still working I was seeing ads for Cobol, Fortran and an occasional Jovial programmer — anyone ever heard of Jovial?.

              Jo’s filter is the same way. It’s a list of rules that grew up over time, is probably handled by Word Press who is reluctant to give out details lest someone figure out a way to get around it, I don’t know. But those rules interact with each other and starting from scratch would risk leaving something out and with law the way it is in Oz letting the wrong comment be published could put Jo out of business or subject her to fines all out of proportion to the supposed offense.

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      • #
        Ross

        “To most people that’s been pretty obvious …”

        To most people who read blogs like this has been obvious fore years TdeF, but we are in a minority. The majority include most politicians, people like Turnbull etc., the ABC and their journalists, increasingly the senior managers working for major corporates and banks, most MSM journalists etc etc

        I congratulate Moore and his mate for having the intellectual honesty to change their mind once they started —they did not start out to produce the doco they ended up with. I believe they started out to do the opposite.

        The key to me was they totally exposed the McKibbens of this world as just being used by the money men. ( If fact I was surprised how much of a wimp McKibben appears to be)

        I agree they do not address the CO2 climate driven issue but that was not their aim.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Turnbull is a dill.

          I used to think he was a smart computer person. That was part of his image. Smart person. I only belatedly realized his forte was merchant banking with his own money. He inherited $3Million at 28 and was already buying terrace houses in inner Sydney when they took off. Turnbull was fired by Packer. He then setup a bank with Nicholas Whitlam.

          And the $50Million windfall was with Ozemail as banker, not creator. The US company MCI paid $250Million for the rights to Ozemail went bankrupt the next year. After Microsoft released a free Hotmail.

          So Malcolm had the cash at the right time and the person behind it all, the real visionary Sean Howard and creator of PC Australia who sold out to Kerry Packer for $1Million made $150Million. Howard had hung onto Ozemail for $1. Turnbull’s $500K investment came in at 100:1.

          As for Malcolm being the smartest man in the room. He was the only one who thought so.

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          • #
            Ross

            OK, my adding Turnbull in the list was not helping my point. He is in the same category as Gore, an opportunist with no moral fibre who is happy to cash in on any scam

            But I would argue that while politicians and corporate management etc. might feel it is politically expedient to go along with it, I very much doubt they would know and understand the real facts of the issue. Similarly with students, university lecturers /so called experts, Greenpeace supporters etc. All of them if they were honest with themselves, would watch the film with horror as the realities were pointed out to them.

            As for the media, it has to be a guess how much they really understand. There are probably quite a few who fall into the Gore/Turnbull camp. They know are a lot but allow themselves to be corrupted by the puppet masters.

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            • #
              WXcycles

              Such blinkered doco producers still fail to grasp that Humans are not a problem and the biota is not ‘dying’, and the Earth is not in ‘crisis’, and is not ‘fragile’. They’re still hopelessly prejudiced against humans because they’re yet to abandon their deep-seated misanthropy conditioning, and the reflexive neurotic looking for damning ‘flaws’ and ‘failures’ in everything humans do.

              As a result they’ve produced a message the gave environmentalism an “F”, but still failed to give humanity an “A”, for being the most impressive animal in the known universe — a critter literally without compare.

              They were too busy self-loathing and hating upon modernity to notice humans are the Earth’s greatest creation. Why is it the ‘enviro’-dimwits and ‘naturalists’ always not notice that a human cities are considerably more impressive than a termite mound? That one critter’s ‘pollution’ is another critter’s dinner? That humans are part of the natural world, and much more impressive and deserving of being all over the Earth than any other critter — on adaptability and evolutionary achievement grounds alone.

              We don’t need to say sorry for being human, and I’m never going to respect anyone who thinks we did bad, or betrayed life by being survivors at life, and living better within our environmental niche than anything else.

              When Moore and crew grow up and make a doco about that maybe I’ll tip my hat, but the ‘Planet of the Humans’ doco is a despicable narrative to be feeding to the younger generations, it could not be more odious and dismal in that respect, IMO. What a horrible false-narrative it spins about human beings.

              [I’m also not going to be apologizing for an addiction to smoked lamb ribs in sweet chili-plumb sauce.]

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                O.K.

                I’ll pay that, sensible.

                KK
                Kurve Krusha

                00

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                The big question is, who wrote this?

                It’s hard to believe that the person posting post after post on the CV19 “data” has written this piece of philosophy.

                KK

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              • #
                WXcycles

                Keith, head’s up mate, you’re in a minuscule minority of outer fringe dwellers who somehow self-selected that the COVID-19 data was “useless”. I don;t know why, but just being a rebellious minority does not make you correct. 😉

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          • #
            toorightmate

            I think the miserable ghost WAS the smartest in the room – when there was no one else in the room.

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            • #
              Zigmaster

              Sorry to disagree , clearly in those circumstances I would say as for being the smartest as long as there is a chair in the room he would undoubtedly run second.

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        • #
          TdeF

          And for the ABC and most Green and Labor politicians it is also obvious, but it is a major political issue.

          Consider Greens leader Adam Bandt who could not care less about the planet. A lifelong communist, the Green party is just a means to his end, a path to power. When I first met him, he had no idea about Green issues and he was trying to get elected to the Melbourne City Council and failed. “We tell them what they want to hear and when we get power we do what we like” was his story.

          Rudd government Minister for the Environment singer Peter Garrett was silly enough to say roughly the same thing, for which he was soundly criticized. Environmentalism is just a cloak communists like Lee Rhiannon wore.

          So my point is that everyone knows it. Especially the politicians. But it is a means to an end, as Moore’s film makes clear. Power and cash.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Moore obviously has a research staff, production staff and so on. He couldn’t do everything he does all by himself. I wonder how mixed the opinion is among that group as to whether Moore is going in the right direction or the wrong. It would be highly unusual for all of those who could hurt what he’s doing to suddenly have the same epiphany moment. And I’m not talking about the Christian Holiday.

          He may have to change some personnel within his organization or have already done it.

          40

      • #
        David

        The nuclear industry is nearly infinite. Uranium is in abundant supply all dependant upon price, and nuclear fuel is only a small part of the cost of nuclear power. Uranium can also be extracted from seawater.

        40

        • #
          TdeF

          No, 98% of all uranium is useless. Only U235 works. So it turns out there is no more Uranium than oil and there is a lot more coal and gas than either. And if CO2 is not a problem, why bother?

          The only way to expand the nuclear fuel is in breeder reactors, producing plutonium, not only the stuff of small atom bombs and terrorists, but perhaps the most lethal element on the planet with a dose of one picogram. It makes Wuhan Flu seem a minor problem.

          What is really needed with the $2Trillion a year is rapid research on Fusion and Thorium. Thorium is 100% useful and not useful for bombs. We would then have infinite energy. Or fusion, with an isotope of hydrogen, deuterium abundant in the earth’s water.

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          • #
            peter

            This is an urban myth that plutonium is the most toxic element on the planet. No one has ever been shown to have died from plutonium toxicity. Claims of animal toxicity have never been verified.

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            • #
              TdeF

              True, its proven toxicity is only comparable to nerve gas. However with a half life of 24,000 years it is very dangerous in the ecosystem and presumably much more dangerous inhaled than ingested. The known stockpile is around 520 tons.

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            • #
              sophocles

              Peter alleged:

              This is an urban myth that plutonium is the most toxic element on the planet.

              True. It was a rumour put about by Ralph Nader way back.

              You might break your teeth if you try to chew on some. It’s half life in the body is reputed to be about 200 years but don’t interpret that to mean it will keep you alive for that long — it won’t. What it does mean is that any which may get into your body moves very slowly and depending on how much you ate, you actually stand a chance of reaching your three score and ten.

              Inhaling Pu dust is the most effective (or dangerous, depending on how you look at it) way of killing yourself by Plutonium. (I understand Polonium is orders of magnitude faster but I may be wrong because I haven’t checked.) It’s highly radioactive and the lungs are just a little fragile and averse to being cooked from the inside.

              Just remember to use a lead-lined coffin to protect your pall-bearers.

              Ref: https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp143.pdf

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        • #
          toorightmate

          David,
          Where is this abundant supply you refer to?

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          • #
            sophocles

            About 85% of uranium ore is to be found in Kazakhstan, Namibia, Niger, Russia, Canada, and Australia. with that sort of geographical spread, it’s not going to become scarce any time soon.

            Thorium is everywhere. This is one of the reasons Liquid Fuel Thorium Reactors are about to become common. Indonesia has already signed up for a couple.

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            • #
              toorightmate

              Ranger is out and Olympic Dam is the only medium term sensible source from Australia.
              Canada is near exhaustion.
              I can’t comment on Kaz, Namibia (surely you don’t mean Rossing – it’s finished), Niger or Russia.

              00

    • #
      dadgervais

      like minds? I prepared almonst ideentical comment last night. Mine began “It starts. One apostate is worse than 99 infidels…”; with same citations.

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    • #
      PeterS

      We discussed this in an earlier thread. He has not turned against the anti-CO2 agenda. On the contrary. He’s criticising the current renewables projects as pretending to be reducing man-made CO2 and instead going the other way. He is basically saying the modern renewables program needs to change and become truly Green, not the fake Green it is now. The left are so blinded to the fake renewables they think he’s turn against them. Yes he has but not for the reasons they think. If anyone thinks he is now pro-fossil fuel, think again.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Peter, the realisation that wind & solar are ‘fake Green’
        Is still a big one.
        What are the ‘truly green’ alternatives ?
        There are none.
        This white ants the whole ‘Green Energy’ dream.

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        • #
          PeterS

          I agree 100%. I feel that Moore’s now in a sad place and contemplating the only solution he has left; destroy our modern way of life and go back to some pre-industrial existence. Perhaps he will wake up and come to his senses but I won’t hold my breath.

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        • #
          Mal

          Modern nuclear power plants are ultimately the best trade of between providing continuous baseload power and minimising environmental damage
          Remember everything in life is a trade off
          Modern nuclear power plant waste is 200 times LESS harmful to the environment than solar panels in landfills at the end of their 20? Year life per unit of power generated
          In the interim the latest generation coal fired power plants are still the best option in Australia

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          • #
            PeterS

            Yes some of us me included have been saying the same thing for a long time. I would add that we should relax the restriction on nuclear here in preparation of the possibility of going nuclear one day, not because we are going to run out of coal or something but because it will open up new industries, which we dearly need now more than ever.

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            • #
              sophocles

              PeterS said:

              I would add that we should relax the restriction on nuclear here in preparation of the possibility of going nuclear one day, …

              Absolutely. I mentioned the prospect to Wellington some years ago. Nobody there will talk to me now. I must have been deemed “heretical.” 😀

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    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Now that Michael Moore – of all people – has exposed the Green Energy [Snip] where are all the Conservative Party voices?
      Agree or not?
      Time to show some guts and tell us where you stand.
      We’re done with Labor lite.
      Stand with us, or stand down.

      [Removed the “F” word . ]AD

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  • #
    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Well, they can’t come to Australia because we have No refineries.

      But we are still a first world nation.

      Maybe.

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      • #
        PeterS

        Actually we still do, lots of them albeit not as many as we used to.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Oh!

          I didn’t research this, but the only one I’m familiar with was Kurnell and it’s been gone a long time.

          There was mention of purchasing and storing refined petrol in the U.S. remembered Kurnell and recent media articles describing the situation as if we had no capacity at all.

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          • #
            PeterS

            Go to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) web site for the details. More specifically:

            Australian refineries are smaller than regional competitors, but do have their own competitive advantages including market access and integration, efficiencies reliability, and speciality products production

            https://www.aip.com.au/sites/default/files/aip_downstream_petroleum_report-7_australian_refinery_competitiveness.pdf

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          • #
            PeterS

            What we do need is to refurbish as well as build new oil storage facilities and buy as much oil as we can while it’s so cheap. I suspect it won’t happen because our governments are afraid of the reactions from the left. Our governments are so spineless. It goes a long way to explain our comatose base load power generation plans.

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            • #
              Dennis

              MELBOURNE, April 22 (Reuters) – Australia said on Wednesday it would allocate A$94 million ($59 million) to buy oil to store in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking advantage of historically low oil prices to build up its emergency stockpile.

              “Initially, that reserve will be held in the United States, where there is spare storage. We have full storages here in Australia. But in time, we are exploring opportunities with the industry to establish local storage,” Energy Minister Angus Taylor said in a televised media conference in Canberra. ($1 = 1.5855 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Sonali Paul; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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              • #
                Dennis

                MELBOURNE, April 22 (Reuters) – Australia is at the head of the queue to buy oil and store it in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), taking advantage of a glut that has hammered oil prices to 21-year lows, Energy Minister Angus Taylor said on Wednesday.

                Australia is close to finalising an agreement announced in March with the Trump administration to lease capacity in the SPR, part of an effort by Canberra to meet its fuel security obligations with the International Energy Agency and a U.S. effort to help U.S. crude producers.

                The U.S. SPR has about 77 million barrels of available capacity in contrast to commercial storage worldwide which is rapidly filling up due to the collapse in fuel demand driven by the coronavirus pandemic.

                “They’ve been looking for partner countries to work with to use those…storages,” Taylor said of the U.S. government.

                “We have been front of the queue. We were the first ones to put our hands up and say: ‘Yes, we want to start doing it,’” he said in a radio interview in Melbourne.

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              • #
                Dennis

                An Agreement between the United States of America and Australia earlier in 2020 provides Australia with priority access to US oil storage reserves.

                The Agreement was signed before the price of oil dropped.

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              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                An Agreement between the United States of America and Australia earlier in 2020 provides Australia with priority access to US oil storage reserves.

                Now that’s good policy.

                I hadn’t caught up with that, even though I follow it fairly closely.

                Thanks for putting it up, Dennis.

                I’ll see if I can find the reference.

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        • #
          Slithers

          There was a refinery
          On Western Port Bay, Hastings Vic don’t know if is still there though.

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          • #
            Peter C

            The Westernport (Vic) refinery has gone. The storage tanks are still there.

            40

          • #
            Jonesy

            Long Island Point is still operating after fifty years. The plant strips propane and butane off the crude from Bass Strait. From here the crude/gas is piped further to Dandenong for gas and Mobil Altona refinery. Long Island Point has a bulk lpg road tanker loading facility. There is a refined fuel storage run by United Fuel. The Shell refinery has been bought by Viva and is still operating but soon to become tanker storage. There are also gas facilities at Bass as well as Port Campbell.

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        Yes first world and unrefined are direct contradictions, perhaps a high functioning banana republic would suffice?

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        • #
          sophocles

          … you would probably have to import the skilled banana benders to reach the `high functioning status.

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      • #
        Robber

        Australia has 4 oil refineries – Mobil Altona, Shell Geelong, Caltex in Qld, and BP in WA – processing about 27 billion litres of crude oil per year and producing about 50% of Australia’s demand for petroleum products.
        Under international regulations, countries are expected to have a stockpile of 90 days’ worth of net-oil imports. Australia has failed to meet that goal, typically storing just 55 days, according to the International Energy Agency..

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Do we have any spare oil storage tank farms ?
        If so we should redirect them to Australia
        And build up our strategic reserve.

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      • #
        Hanrahan

        The idea is to lease one or two of these tankers and anchor them up. Has been done before.

        Just found a headline:

        26 Feb 2020
        Tanker Rates Plunge Over 80% as Virus Torpedoes Shipping

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    • #
      Raving

      The Oil Industry’s Glut Has a Bright Spot: Tanker Storage
      Shipping companies, which can command more than $200,000 a day for a vessel, are cashing in on increased demand.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/business/oil-markets-tankers.html?referringSource=articleShare

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    • #
      sophocles

      The fishing must be good.
      Maybe the anchovies have run north … ?

      00

  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    I’ve been posting a little bit lately about Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and the empirical evidence for its efficacy when taken early in the infection. This post in the Numerology thread managed to get one purist exercised:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/viral-numerology-coronavirus-fades-after-6-to-8-weeks-due-to-magic-or-something/#comment-2314165

    Read to the bottom of 1.1.5…..

    Then, the USA’s Veterans Administration (V.A.) came up with a shoddy study that purported to throw doubt on that evidence. I had a look at that study and considered it to be yet another example of very poor research design. Negligence. Possibly deliberately so. My critique was posted here:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/thursday-open-thread-7/#comment-2316874

    Today it was good to see that the Australian researchers, who are undertaking a trial on the efficacy of HCQ, commented on the V.A. study and, as reported in today’s “Weekend Australian”, came to the view that:

    “The leaders of the Australian clinical trial, known as the ASCOT trial, say they are considering the study but believe its findings are unreliable because the US patients who were administered hydroxychloroquine were likely to have been more severely ill than those who were not and therefore more likely to die in any event.”

    And this:

    “I think the US study does raise warning flags, but the reason why you do trials is you set up an ethical and safe framework to test these drugs. If there is really convincing evidence, which I would say this US study is not, that one of the drugs in our trial was causing harm, we would stop that.” said the ASCOT* trial’s lead researcher, Royal Melbourne Hospital infectious diseases clinician Professor Steven Tong. Professor Tong, is also the co-lead of clinical research at the Doherty Institute.

    And fancy any newspaper in Australia other that “The Australian” reporting:

    “Former Australian politician Clive Palmer has purchased 33 million doses of the drug (HCQ) and donated them to the National Medical Stockpile.”

    How refreshing it is to see at least one MSM news-service publish such an opinion. “The Australian” newspaper has to be one of the best, if not the best, newspapers currently being published anywhere in the world.

    Wouldn’t it be something if their ABC ran the same truth?

    The constant denigration in some political quarters of in the USA of the demonstrated efficacy of HCQ (preferably in conjunction with Zinc – which is generally ignored) is nothing short of negligence. Not science. Not medical science. Not medicine. Political science, yet again. These people have blood on their hands. It’s criminal.They need to be held to account. What’s their motivation?

    *ASCOT is the acronym for AustralaSian Covid-19 Trial

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    • #
      Sunni Bakchat

      Nice one Sam. If HCQ + ZN + ZPac is administered early enough, it can likely slow virus replication, it can also probably slow the inflammation response, which in turn probably stops the likelihood of Disseminated Intravascular Clotting that leads to strokes and clots around the rest of the vasculature; as well as the macrophagous cell waste and fluid buildup in the lungs. The better available lung capacity/efficiency, the less the build up of carbon dioxide in the lungs leading to hypercapnia and associated neurological sequelae.

      The key seems to be early asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic diagnosis, which the Australian authorities are failing dismally at, and good clinical monitoring.

      Personally i think locking people down and then locking them up if they are caught with the virus is, is the most stupid, authoritarian, paternalistic and counterproductive act imaginable. Yet, that’s what Australia has effectively done whilst pretending the numbers are heading for zero. It’s a lot like the Fawlty Towers episode where guests are told to not mention the war whilst Basil serves up “Prawn Goebbels” to the Germans.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        I read this and agreed with you
        “If HCQ + ZN + ZPac is administered early enough, it can likely slow virus replication, it can also probably slow the inflammation response, which in turn probably stops the likelihood of Disseminated Intravascular Clotting that leads to strokes and clots around the rest of the vasculature; as well as the macrophagous cell waste and fluid buildup in the lungs. The better available lung capacity/efficiency, the less the build up of carbon dioxide in the lungs leading to hypercapnia and associated neurological sequelae.”

        But the rest of your comment is trash Sunni.
        Written from a far distant place and not based on accurate information.
        Why not write comments based on what is happening via a vis this foreign CCP Wuhan virus, in Geneva Switzerland where you live ? Such infrmation might be of interest and useful to us here in Australia.

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          The Brazil “study”.

          (I’m putting this here to keep proximate to #4.0)

          You’ve no doubt also seen the MSM denigration of Chloroquine treatment for Covid-19 as a result of a study undertaken in Manaus, Brazil, and recently published in JAMA.

          This is another shoddy piece of work if ever I saw one. This is not science. I don’t know how you’d describe it, but it’s not science.

          In this Brazil study, two groups were established; a high dosage group and a low dosage group. There was no control group.

          The high dosage group were older (average age 54.7 years) and had more chronic health problems (17.9%) than the low dosage group whose average age was 47.4 years and had no chronic health problems (0.0%).

          Now look at this. The high dosage group was given 1,200mg of Chloroquine (CQ)/day for 10 days. The low dosage group was given 900mg CQ on day 1 then 450mgCQ/day for 4 days.

          The high dosage group was on a massive dose, while the low dosage group was only treated for 5 days. No Zinc was prescribed. No wonder people died and they had to stop the trial.

          https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765270?utm_source=For_The_Media&amp%3butm_medium=referral&amp%3butm_campaign=ftm_links&amp%3butm_term=042420

          Now compare that to the Marseille’s study of Didier Raoult, where a Day 1 loading of 600mg of HCQ was prescribed followed by 400mg/day for 9 days. Ditto the treatment prescribed by Zev Zelenkos in New York; and Ban Truong in California. All of these treatments prove to be efficacious.

          Zelenkos has a death rate of 0.05% on his latest numbers.

          Here’s a radio interview with Zelenkos of a couple of days ago, giving an update on his success:

          https://soundcloud.com/kmcradio/kevin-mccullough-dr-zev-zelenkos-chloroquine-critics-update

          Well worth a listen.

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      • #
        Sunni Bakchat

        Sam, just to add further to earlier comments.

        It seems to be lost on many the detail of Dr. Zelenko’s comments. It’s a great shame many around here engage the hands before engaging the brain. Nonetheless, Dr. Zelenko is saying the key to his therapy is early clinical intervention with the patient. Without early diagnosis the horse has bolted, so to speak. Hence my comment on early asymptomatic (pre-symptomatic) or mildly symptomatic diagnosis. Application of intense testing to >60yo high risk cohorts (circa 20% of Australian population) on a regular basis would be intelligent risk based statistical application wouldn’t you think? Especially given this is the demographic almost exclusively dying from Covid-19.

        The law of unintended consequences assures that those who do not feel comfortable in coming forward due to risk of draconian outcomes, will not present with Covid-19 early symptoms or perhaps at all. The approach Australia has taken toward Covid-19 militates encouraging patients to come forth for the critical early diagnosis Dr. Zelenko advocates. It is just plain stupid, counterproductive and paternalistic for the Australian government not to treat Australians like adults. Despite the fact a few idiots will always abound. Patients must be encouraged to come forward as early as possible for testing. Not only to treat the virus early, but also to prevent spread. The authoritarian dynamic the government has established is now arguably causing far more problems than it is solving.

        The concerns about heart damage relating to Chloroquine are around what is known as QT interval. QT interval can simply be measured via an ECG. Your local doctor can do this. It’s standard practice now for an ECG to be taken before and after treatment when utilising Chloroquine according to friends who are practising doctors. Sustained prolonged QT interval can cause heart damage, but most healthy people bounce back very quickly if the cardiac event is short term.

        Lastly, The great doctor Seheult of Medcram has published another video on vitamins and minerals he takes every day. He identifies Quercetin as a Zinc ionophore. This may be beneficial to some on this blog who prefer to not take Quinine (Indian Tonic Water) for same. Very notably, the good doctor takes Zinc every day. 🙂 https://youtu.be/NM2A2xNLWR4

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        • #
          sophocles

          The best treatment for Covid-19 is not to catch it in the first instance.
          You should know how to achieve that by now.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      There’s a huge body of work there Sam.
      You’ve done well to try and put some order into it.

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    • #
      dadgervais

      I composed this before this unthreaded was posted, but I conceed yours is better. In any case:

      1. Big Pharma, the NGOs they support, individuals (Gates, etc.) stand to make billions if mandatory immunization can be imposed on most of the world.

      2. Various trial treatments (e.g. Hydroxychloroquine, other antimalarials, etc.) are off patent, cheap, can be produced in any country without paying royalties.

      3. Consensus Experts all insist that (2.) above is ineffective; futile; even dangerous. MSM (as a public service of course) carry many articles debunking alleged benifits of trial treatments.

      Conclusion: Any suggestion that there is a thread connecting the above three facts is a ignorant/dangerous Conspiracy Theory!

      ?????????????????????????????????Really?????????????????????????????????
      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/blood-hands-liberal-media-drudge-cheer-news-hydroxychloroquine-may-not-effective-treatment-covid-19-despite-fact-people-dying/

      SHOCKING: 80% of Swine Flu Victims were Under 65 – No Lockdown… 84% of Coronavirus Victims Are Over 60 – Lockdown Required
      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/huge-80-swine-flu-victims-65-no-lockdown-84-coronavirus-victims-60-lockdown-required/

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        OriginalSteve

        Yeah but dont forget the vaccine paradigm is a huge social control structure over the population. Its close to a religion in the truest sense.

        Try questioning it and see how fast youre labelled a “heretic”.

        The cornerstone to the vaccines argument in this case is the push to also tattoo people ( control ) and not let people out of isolation ( control ) and giving govt yet another leash to put people on ( control ).

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          OriginalSteve

          Id like to draw peoples attention to this – I suspect this is the bigger game at play – surveillance. Another Patriot Act / T S A in the making…

          A set of handcuffs is a set of handcuffs, whether physical or electronic.

          Cant happen here? We are effectively under medical martial law now.

          Now imagine everyone ( for thier own good of course ) having to wear one…

          Want to travel interstate? You may be blocked at the border…or want to go to work…you cant unless you can prove you are “immune” of course. Or your credit card is blocked for repeat offenders.

          Heel, boy…sit….

          Now you understand why they want a cashless society

          http://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-24/hong-kong-s-faulty-wristbands-allow-quarantined-to-wander-free

          “Wong’s wristband is one of around 24,000 tracker bracelets the government has distributed to monitor new arrivals. The band is meant to connect to an app that sends out alerts asking the person to take pictures of themselves wearing the wristband, and issues warnings if it senses the person had left their place of residence. The device detects and analyzes radio signals, including bluetooth and wifi, as well as geographical location signals when it’s activated.

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          • #
            WXcycles

            https://www.covid19data.com.au/

            Have a look at the cases coming from even restricted interstate travel at this late stage in the virus take down.

            Personally I don’t get upset about government emergency powers in Australia, as our culture is sufficiently resistant to that to reject it and any government which tries it on in unnecessary ways. Remember Joe Hockey’s BS about an “Australia Card”, and how vital that was to Australia’s future? Turns out it wasn’t. Australians rejected it of course.

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      You had me worried there for a moment S S, I thought you weren’t going to mention the zinc.
      Well done.
      Thanks.
      Dave B

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        If my memory is correct, my father used to use zinc on his tinnea contracted in New Guinea?

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      • #
        Lank

        Interestingly, the Chinese black ant Polyrichus contains the highest zinc content of any living organism (6% Zn in some species) and these ants are ground up as a zinc treatment in traditional Chinese medicines.
        Maybe they could become an ‘anti’ Covid19 treatment!

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    • #
      Ross

      I hope Clive has purchased the zinc product to go with the HCQ because the US doctors say that is the key. That is, they need to work together for the medication to work.

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      Peter C

      Sceptical Sam,

      I have been looking for trials of hydroxychloroquine that actually report outcomes.

      So far I have found only one; Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19
      https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2

      The results did not back up the previous encouraging results reported from clinical cases studies. The trial involved hydroxychloroquine alone and hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Unfortunately zinc was not used.

      The Australian ASCOT trial could have been good, but by the time they actually were ready to recruit patients the new cases rate in Australia had tumbled to very low numbers. I think they have some American collaborators so that may be where the real trial happens.

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      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Try TedM below at #22 for a 14 min audio, interview with Dr Zelenko.
        Cheers
        Dave B

        20

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        You’re not looking PeterC, or alternatively you you have a definition of “trial” that is somewhat bespoke.

        Have you looked at the latest published work by Didier Raoult?

        Have you checked out Zelenko’s work?

        Truong’s?

        Have you read my link here:

        http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/viral-numerology-coronavirus-fades-after-6-to-8-weeks-due-to-magic-or-something/#comment-2314165

        Would you like to turn your mind to refuting that evidence?

        And, of course, there’s a great deal of empirical evidence being published on line, but not in professional journals.

        That’s what happens when things are happening fast. The imperative is to get the efficacious treatments out there into the public domain, to save lives. The formal publication process takes too long and in the meantime people die.

        That’s why the quick learners are saving lives, while the old brigade – the purists – have blood on their hands.

        Which school do you belong to?

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        • #
          Peter C

          Didier Raoult; yes
          Zelenko; yes
          Truong; yes

          These reports are all many weeks old now.

          What school do I belong to? I have an open mind on the subject. I would like to know if hydroxychloroquine works in vivo and I hope that it does.. The in vitro studies appear to be good, ie in the treat tube or petri dish.

          The case report studies you reference are better than anecdotes but they lack controls or reliable end points.

          Case report studies could be assessed against untreated controls but I am not aware of any such studies. Current trials have taken a long time to get started.

          This article is up to date (25 April) and reviews the evidence, such as it is. The authors don’t mention politics or Trump which is a good thing.
          https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-current-evidence-for-their-effectiveness-in-treating-covid-19/

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            Sceptical Sam

            The CEBm report is the purist’s approach.

            That leaves the coffins accumulating in the corridors.

            I understand why they adopt that approach. However, I don’t accept letting people die is acceptable in a civilized society. The CEBM approach is “let ’em die” until we know for sure whether it works. They’ll only know whether it works, compared to the control group, when the trials are completed, written up, peer reviewed, submitted for publication and eventually published.

            Any body counting the coffins in the interim?

            In Australia, the ASCOT study (trial) is going ahead. There’s a good chance it’ll come to nought. Why?

            Because it’s likely, on current infection rates, that the researchers will have insufficient subjects to get the numbers needed for a reliable test.

            Far better to treat with what is known to work, (HCQ, Zn, Z-pack) but under close medical supervision and save lives.

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            • #
              Peter C

              The CEBm report is the purist’s approach.

              Actually I think it is quite balanced. If I get the coronavirus I will be asking for hydroxychloroquine because of the case report studies. None the less the reports have have problems.

              Searching a bit further on the CEBM webite, I noticed on the top line search bar; “COVID19 Evidence”, and tracking that down a bit I came across; What Do the Clinical Trial Tell Us?
              https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-what-do-the-clinical-trials-tell-us/

              This is well worth reading. They dissect two trials, A French trial (Gautret et al) and a Chinese trial (Chen et al)

              Read it all if you wish. I will just refer to this comment on the Chinese trial:
              16. The criteria for judging normal body temperature were complex and depended on the site of measurement; a rectal or tympanic membrane temperature of up to 37.8oC was considered normal.

              Now I would consider a tympanic membrane temperature of 37.8 as a mild fever! There were many other comments which scrutinise the trials in detail. Both trials did not fulfil their original study criteria.
              At the end they say they are waiting for more information, which is a fair enough response and does not indicate an anti hydroxychloroquine bias.

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                Sceptical Sam

                OK, Peter C, I can live with all that.

                I’ll be using HCQ too. With Zn and Z-pack. At the dosages used by Didier Raoult et al.

                I’m yet to see the purists advice on any alternative that is as well documented as the empirical evidence for HCQ + Zn + Z-pack.

                I hope and pray that neither you nor I (or anybody else here) will need to be part of their own trial (n=1). 🙂

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          Kalm Keith

          A bit harsh, considering the insurance issues or legal liability issues for properly registered doctors.

          It may be different if a patient, or legal stand in, demanded that treatment. I don’t know.

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          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            A bit harsh,

            Hmmm…

            Perhaps.

            However, in the current circumstances there really can be no sitting on the fence. That just has people dying for no good reason.

            You’re either in the school of the purist or in the school of the pragmatist.

            At least the purist has an objective. The cost being that people die until such time as that objective is met.

            The pragmatist, on the other hand, has resolved to not allow the perfect to get in the way of the good. Hence the pragmatist takes action based on the best information (perhaps even the best science) available at the time. The result is that lives are saved.

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            • #
              Peter C

              The pragmatist, on the other hand, has resolved to not allow the perfect to get in the way of the good. Hence the pragmatist takes action based on the best information (perhaps even the best science) available at the time. The result is that lives are saved.

              Using the best available information for decision making is good. But it may be wrong (lets say the information is limited and somehow biased). Then the treatment would be wrong and Lives Not Saved. So we must update the information as soon as we can. John Maynard Keynes said “if the facts change then I change my mind!”

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                Sceptical Sam

                Exactly.

                Here’s the risk profile:

                If the death rate from the proper use of the HCQ + Zinc + Z-pack cocktail (taken early and under medical supervision) is greater than the general death rate for Covid-19 infection, then the risk is untenable.

                If not? Take the cocktail.

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      PeterS

      I recall over a decade ago while the CAGW alarmist were spewing out their nonsense, others noticed Mars was also increasing in temperature. Of course it went completely over the heads of the alarmists. They are so blind some most likely wouldn’t noticed even if the earth froze over and still claim the planet was warming.

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      Peter C

      Hi Zoe,

      Possibly late in the duration of this thread to ask this question, but I will check back to see if you notice and respond.

      What is the source of the lunar temperature data?
      You give some sites that say the Moon in warming but what are those reports basing their claims on?

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      • #

        In my link:

        “According to [Vasavada 2012], the mean equatorial temperature between 2009 and 2011 was about 213K, whereas the 2017-2018 data from UCLA and WUSTL shows that to be about 216K.”

        Could there be a difference of methods that would lead to an error difference?

        I suppose.

        Then I applied some thought:

        There is no available data/chart showing either cooling, stable, or warming.

        It’s probably warming, otherwise, the trend would be more well known.

        Maybe I am wrong, but I haven’t seen that conclusively. Other possibilities are not proven either.

        Did I rush to judgment? What do you think?

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        • #
          sophocles

          What do the satellite data sets say?

          There was the big El Nino 2015 – 2016 and I noticed it sort of didn’t want to die out for quite some time but I have no idea for how long. Could that be cause and effect?

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  • #
    Tim Spence

    Hot mic records conversation in White House
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=421wQA4LZVQ

    Does anyone else get the impression that the virus was spreading much earlier than December 2019?

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Cases were known of in novembr 2019….

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      MichaelinBrisbane

      Even though WE only heard about it in January 2020, it was clearly well known in 2019. That’s why they — WHO — call it “COVID 19”.
      I’m more inclined to call it the “Wuhan Flu” or “Wuflu” for short.

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    dadgervais

    Whoa Nellie!

    Did Dr. Fauci Predict a Serious Pandemic During Trump’s Presidency — in 2017?
    Fact Checks, Viral Content / By Kim LaCapria / April 1, 2020
    Claim
    In January 2017, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted a serious pandemic during U.S. President Donald Trump’s tenure in office.
    Rating
    True
    https://www.truthorfiction.com/did-dr-fauci-predict-a-serious-pandemic-during-trumps-presidency-in-2017/

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    Kalm Keith

    Life is complex and nothing illustrates this better than the CV19 drama.

    One survivor of a serious brush with this disease;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223977/Australian-mum-wakes-coma-falling-ill-coronavirus-Ruby-Princess-cruise-ship.html

    The question arises as to whether there is a precipitating factor and then consider the difficulty in preparing statistics that accurately describe the role of CV19 in this event.

    A big part of science is to clear away all irrelevant and potentially confusing factors in any experiment, but in the case of CV19 that has not been done and this leaves any statistical analysis of the problem up in the air.

    There is a state of confusion about CV19 that is not healthy.

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      dadgervais

      “…leaves any statistical analysis of the problem up in the air.”

      Any future statistical analysis will draw invalid conclusions if the official statistics are pre-cooked. How will they separate covid-caused, covid-accompanied, covid-presumed, false positive cases. Very wide margin of error likely. Recent U.S. Headlines/Article excerpts:

      “New York City Adds 3,778 People to Its Coronavirus Death Toll.
      Adding those who probably had virus (no positive test result) boosts the tally above 10,000 victims.”
      [The day prior they had less than 6.5 thousand.]

      “Michigan joins NY, adds more than 1000 presumed cases.”

      BTW, World Health Organization: Up to 650,000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year; 56,660,000 total from all causes.

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      Bill In Oz

      Agreed K K.
      But that is for the academic researchers
      To deal with over the next decade or so.
      There will be good research grants for this for ages.
      Better they do something useful
      Than the fake global warming ‘ research’

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    TdeF

    Scientists ‘know’ that total solar irradiance is decreasing. And if that is not true, you have another very simple explanation for both, one with an atmosphere and one without.

    I would have thought a timing coincidence in surface warming between the earth and the moon in an incredibly short timeframe after 4.5 billion years was most unlikely. The more likely explanation is that they are both heated by the same source. Occam’s razor would indicate from two sources that solar irradiance was increasing.

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    dadgervais

    I won’t pretend to devine the true motives of the CCP, but IF they intended to minimize the loss to themselves while maximizing the damage to their economic competitors, they couldn’t have done better than they actually did.

    On another note:

    The Experts Were ALL WRONG: Six New Studies Show COVID-19 Infected Millions More than Predicted Across US from NYC to LA to Miami to Boston to Chicago!
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/experts-wrong-six-new-studies-show-covid-19-infected-millions-predicted-across-us-nyc-la-miami-boston-chicago/

    Among the many comments, this speculation might make one at least ponder:

    JoanieBaloney Eddie Blake • 11 hours ago • edited

    So true and we have to not let this drop and just go away without consequences. The Democrat party’s leadership includes many Communists. Communism is on the rise in the US. And I believe they were working with China to release this in order to stop President Trump’s US economic escalation.

    The Clintons and Obama are examples. People can realize the truth by reading the book “You Can Trust the Communists (to be Communists), written in 1965 and can be found free online if you search the title provided.

    This book states the USSR only allowed those to visit that they believed they could use and then remember, they gave permission for Bill Clinton to visit when he was a Rhodes scholar.

    Bernie Sanders was able to visit, pictures of him dining with the Communists.

    People should ask, why were these two men were so infatuated with Communist Russia.

    Obama also has Communism in his upbringing. Remember Obama and Michelle hung Mao Christmas ornaments on the White House tree and no one made a big deal out it.

    Open borders policy is part of it also as the US wouldn’t know how many schools, hospitals etc we would need with open borders, it would create chaos, bring down the country and the open borders crowd would rebuild as the desired totalitarian country they want. How would we ever protect our country from future pandemics if we had no borders? I think Coronavirus showed Americans why we need secure borders.

    This is why Hillary was so furious she isn’t the US president now because I assumed she would have been the last US president by bringing down the US with whatever she would have implemented. The Communists thought they were so close…..and then Donald Trump rose to take on these Commies and save America. After him, I have no idea where the US will go since they have indoctrinated so many young people within the education system to love Socialism/Communism

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    Travis T. Jones

    Science:
    The first frog fossil from Antarctica has been found
    An ancient amphibian sheds light on when the continent iced over

    100% junk science:
    MANKIND IS LIKE THE FABLED FROG—WE’RE BEING BOILED ALIVE BY CLIMATE CHANGE
    https://www.newsweek.com/boiling-frog-climate-change-mankind-twitter-1343815

    >> There is no evidence of the earth ever boiling over because of carbon (sic).
    But snowball earth … plenty of evidence.

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    Another Ian

    “EU Kowtows to China, Revises Coronavirus Disinfo Report After Chinese Communist Party Pressure”

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/25/eu-kowtows-to-china-revises-coronavirus-disinfo-report-after-ccp-pressure/

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      PeterS

      EU is on the verge of collapsing so I think they are looking towards China for assistance since they dare not instead kowtow to the US – it would be too embarrassing for them to admit they got it all wrong.

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      PeterS

      Further to what I’ve said, the EU would rather buddy up with the leaders of the CPC than with Trump for the simple fact the EU hate Trump.

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      toorightmate

      I suspect our beloved ABC and Fairfax folk would put all their weight behind the EU and CCP.

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    Another Ian

    “It’s All Over For Europe’s Green Deal As Angela Merkel’s MEPs Say ‘It’s No Longer Viable’”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/25/y2kyoto-green-shoots/#comments

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    • #
      PeterS

      Oh good! Now PM Morrison has another reason to start proceedings to get us out of the Paris Agreement. I dare him to do it if he really means what he says about getting Australia back on the path to growth again.

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      WXcycles

      Oh my goodness, it never was “viable”.

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Article just showed up near the top of Pointman’s list but has been around a while.

      Doesn’t alter the sentiments though IMO

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    Slithers

    Important info required.
    Can anyone find or provide the names of the Wuhan Virology Lab chief who was sacked and when. More importantly the name of the lab technician who seems to have been patient zero and who died in mid-December. Not the wet market woman!
    The links I have report 404 it seems the CCP is working hard to destroy all evidence.

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      PeterS

      You could try the CIA. They do have a phone number.

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    • #

      “Wuhan Virology Lab chief” is presumably Shi Zhengli? She may or may not have weaponised the virus, claimed it could not have escaped from the lab. She co-authored several papers outlining work on the bat virus, some of which caused concern years ago. The lab technician’s name was available, but will have been sanitised by now. He could have been the person who accidentally escaped it. Maybe look at archiving services such as the Wayback Machine?

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  • #
    el gordo

    To app or not to app, that is the question, but Morrison had no doubt.

    ‘It seems he needn’t worry about falling short of the initial target. A poll conducted by the Australia Institute has found 45 per cent of respondents intend to download the app and that’s before the National Cabinet has even finalised the details or begun an advertising campaign.

    ‘Only 28 per cent say they will not download the app, while 27 per cent don’t know.

    ‘Interestingly, men (52 per cent) are more likely than women (38 per cent) to say they will download the app, as are Coalition voters (53 per cent) compared with Labor voters (47 per cent).’

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    Yonniestone

    Yesterday was ANZAC Day which amid the CV19 social distancing measures dawn services were either cancelled or broadcasted to the people who were encouraged to sand in their driveways or house and observe the minutes silence without breaking CV19 rules.

    I didn’t do this and made my way to a local suburb war memorial (Sebastopol) with mask at the ready to pay respects in person at 6am, the streets were virtually empty with no sign of police which I half expected and a few that were getting ready in their driveways.

    For a few minutes I was the only one there until three others crossed the road one in full uniform carrying a wreath which he laid at the memorials base in the correct manner then stood with the rest of us as the last post played from a driveway across the road.

    A few hours later I went to the supermarket where a large number of people wearing no masks were inside going about their shopping in close proximity to each other, how can rules be applied to one activity and not the other and was this ANZAC Day just an opportunity to damage another tradition by the Left?

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Excellent.

      Your last point is why I went to several memorial service locations.

      At the first, a local Park, I read the comments on the wreaths attached to the iron gate and walked past the 5 empty black plastic chairs which somebody had presumably placed there as a protest.

      Nobody else there so I drove into a larger park memorial where 5 others were standing.

      Moving across to the local beach memorial there were just occasional individuals stopping to pay respects, but at the rail overlooking the ocean it seemed that there was a massive crowd waiting for sunrise.

      The sunrise was spectacular.

      On arriving home a neighbour, 50 metres up the road called out and I went up to join the group of six .

      During my drive to the beach venue I listened to the ABCCCC radio broadcast: the main speaker, who spoke well, was a female veteran nurse. Anzac day cancelled/ reframed in the image approved of by the new world order.

      News this morning of arrests in Hong Kong and a summary of Chinese aggression in the Paracelles/Spratleys.

      Why do I feel sick at heart and very disturbed that Anzac day was cancelled and replaced with a 10 minute radio broadcast featuring a select pc main speaker?

      I think we have been skammed.

      KK

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        Leigh

        Yesterday, I woke up early to watch the dawn break with my wife.

        Just as it did, a very loud “And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda” started up from some distance away. Followed by the Australian and New Zealand National Anthems, The Ode and Last Post, then one minute’s silence, followed by The Rouse. Then quiet.

        We live atop a hill and this would be audible over most of the suburb.

        Later my daughter and I went for our daily walk. People out in their front yards having breakfast, flags, poppies, signs and the like.

        In a lot of ways, it was the most meaningful ANZAC Day I can remember as we all were giving up something for the greater good. Nothing compared to the Diggers of course.

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          Kalm Keith

          Yes, there was a lot of new expression of appreciation of the Anzac idea, great to see.

          I am still concerned that Anzac day, global warming and CV19 reaction have a common link: Manipulation.

          KK

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          Another Ian

          Our local town had strategic pa systems linked to the RSL internet site and broadcast proceedings there to go with the candles in driveways

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        • #
          Yonniestone

          I was going to mention the feedback from Aussies about yesterday many said the same that somehow without getting in cars travelling parking then doing it all again made the dawn observance more personal and meaningful, I believe that highlighting the option for marking the day at home probably got more people to do something instead of waking up later and watching the repeats of services and parades.

          Don’t get me wrong people are free to do and believe what they want on the day regardless of any media or social hype, I just feel that without those that use the day to postulate or promote certain agendas that have no place to be aired the day was perhaps taken back by the people that it truly relates to.

          If those that desire to rule absolutely without merit thought yesterday was another nail in the coffin of the Australian spirit then they might have kicked a big own goal.

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      I’m with you here littlerock.

      There seems to be a concerted effort to change the way we do things, and stay with me here. It’s a good thing that they have done this now because of this Wuhan Virus, but it seems to me that they have found their excuse. They did a clean sweep, a complete wipe clean. Like crashing your computer back to just the hard drive. Wipe it clean, and then do a complete rebuild, only this time, structure it, not just ‘add on’ the ‘bits and pieces’ here and there. Build it how you want it to be.

      Tell them that it’s for their own good.

      There will be pain at the start, but once that settles, then ….. what remains ….. what comes back ….. what survives will be in ….. ‘our image’.

      And, just like acceptance of the ‘App’, the conditioning begins. The young are the most accepting of all this. We, as older people can grumble all we like, but the young, our children, and their children, say that they are doing all of this for ‘our good’. (as older people) And in fact, we should be thankful.

      See the point.

      They can then design the future that ‘they’ want. Change the way things are done (eg ANZAC Day) change the way we do everyday things, impose the draconian measures for way way longer than is needed so that after that time, we have forgotten what it was really like ….. to ‘have’ those freedoms.

      The situation is similar to (note here I said similar to) a Series I recently watched on the ABC, hidden up against, and at the same time as the Rugby League, which was cancelled, hence they can say that they showed it, but designed to not get as much viewership. That TV series was called ‘The Capture’. It was really good, but infuriating, (in a manner like 1984) because you know in your mind what should happen, and yet you know it won’t. (and it didn’t)

      No matter what people’s intent really is, the reality will always be what ‘they’ want it to be, no matter what you would like it to be.

      This is our ‘wipe clean’ moment.

      Tony.

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        Bill In Oz

        Zero cases in SA the past three days Tony.
        The day approaches when we will here will have our normal lives back.
        ( Sans overseas travel )
        Then I for one will be up for celebrating
        Our release from our current CCP Wuhan Virus dominated life.

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        FarmerDoug2

        Gave you a tick but I am encouraged by Leigh at 17.1.1.

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        Yonniestone

        Agreed Tony and I would add the lefts attack on Australia Day to the list, however as I replied above it might have shown the people just how little they need unqualified experts to dictate how every aspect of their lives must be lived.

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        farmerbraun

        It gets worse Tony. The beginning of ” duck shooting”, always and forever the first Saturday in May , has been delayed by one week , for no reason at all apparently; simply because they could .
        So take that all you duck shooters; because “Christchurch massacre” and “gun confiscation”.

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          sophocles

          … and it gives the ducks a better chance to vamoos. They know not to stick around at the start of the shooting season … usually.

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        Richard Ilfeld

        Well then Tony, we can hope that there is more than one “they”.

        There will be a they that wants to return to the status quo.
        There will be a they that wants to be greener and one that wants to be less green,
        There will be one that thinks we need to be more regulated, and one that thinks we need less.

        The probable fact of life in most of our political jurisdictions is that there will, in the short run, be less money.
        There will be less, or more in business too, but the adaptation will happen as always.

        A political jurisdiction that retains its fixed costs from before is doomed. Example: the state of Illinois has squeaked “bailout”.
        At Covid reduced slaes tax and income tax levels, it looks like at the present moment it would take 100% of State revenues for more than five years just to
        backfill state employee pensions to statuatory levels, no other spending. That’s why bankruptcy for states was suggested, and louldly rejected by legislatore
        heavily supported by state employee lobbies. Budgets of universities, and any other state funded operation are going to be stressed. A few operations will be deemed essential.
        Hospitals?

        There will have to be some very hard choices made among the rest.

        Or much higher taxes. It may be hard to raise taxes.

        Here is what I see. For the adult life, the left has always taken to the streets, and demonstrated, and gotten its way. The right has generally been quiet.
        Again and again, issue, after issue.

        But now, the right is out demonstrating, and engaging in civil disobedience. The woke and the green need to think very hard about what this means.
        Exactly how hard is it to hack an app that violates civil rights?

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        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Well put Richard, but how many see this? The ‘Green’ side sees this ’emergency’ as proof that there will always be buckets of money available to be spent on what they want.
          Mind you, any people claiming that ‘we’ need more renewable energy are likely to be told “tell that to Michael Moore”.

          10

    • #
      RickWill

      Police were in attendance at the Melbourne war memorial but they only chatted to those present – from a distance of course. The police would not want to intervene in such circumstances.

      50

      • #
        Yonniestone

        I’m glad Rick, but as you know from personal experience I have reservations about the mindset and potential actions of some in Victoria Police.

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      • #
        toorightmate

        Police are needed in droves to arrest those horrible criminals lying on the beach, or having a picnic or driving with someone who does not live in the same house.
        Hysteria is at fever pitch best and don’t the pollies love that power.
        Let’s hope the general public doesn’t react too violently to the politicians now abusing their power.

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  • #
    Orson

    UKs Rapid Testing Consortium out of Oxford, claims a 20 minute blood test with 99% accuracy, which they will produce by a million units a week, will allow a version of testing passport of immunity to the Covid19 virus.

    The government has ordered 50 million tests, expected to be available by June. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8257233/Government-orders-50million-game-changing-immunity-tests.html

    Now, this pathway back to normalcy has been sketched out before. Real success turns on practical implementation of the detail, such as how long will immunity last?

    But a pathway like this, combined with two week isolation for travellers, is one likely model of success worth imitating and refining as needed.

    For those interested to dig further into the particulars, go online and search. From April 8th, Here’s a UK government statement to achieve the above result before the end of April:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/industry-responds-to-call-to-arms-to-build-british-diagnostics-industry-at-scale

    A road map to manage the virus threat is forming. This looks like positive news towards that end.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Excellent News orson
      I have far more trust in a UK Oxford based blood test
      Than anything coming out of the CCP’s China.

      30

      • #
        sophocles

        … you and me both. As long as neither of countries import the complete vaccine (assuming it all works) from the CCP;s China either.

        00

  • #
    Orson

    correction: it seems the above link goes to UK viral testing, not antibody testing as I had searched for, as an intended example. Sorry.

    20

  • #
    dinn, rob

    inside the virology story:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bXWGxhd7ic&t=41s
    1) at 2:18 of video June 2010 Shi Zhengli published on mutating bat coronavirus’ enzymes to aid SARS infection.
    2) at 20:55 Oct 2013 Shi Zhengli published in Nature no need for intermediary host with 3 specific bat coronaviruses to infect man.
    3) at 21:27 Nov 2015 Shi Zhengli published in Nature Medicine on a synthetic virus: SARS but with a key protein replaced by one in a bat coronavirus. Mice so infected had severe lung damage. Her team planned tp proceed similarly on primates. By this time Shi Zhengli had teamed with Ralph Baric at U of North Carolina in this line of research, with major funding from NIH. (Shi got some $3.7 million of US taxpayer money for her research, plus China gave her team grants worth some $10 million.) Danger bells rang, the funding shifted.
    4) at 25:00 In 2020 scientists probing GeneBank find only one Shi Zhengli-found bat virus and HIV and Sars-Cov-2 have the 4 “HIV-like” inserts/genome sequences.
    ………….

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  • #
    Robber

    With only 1,240 active CV19 cases currently in Australia, over 200 recoveries per day and just 20 new cases per day, surely it’s time for our pollies to bite the bullet and relax the restrictions, at least in some parts of this large country. If they shared data openly, they could report where those new and active cases are, keep those areas restricted, and open up 80% of the country. For example, just 2 new cases per day across all of Qld, only 5 new cases in SA in the past 10 days, only 5 new cases in WA in the past week. Let’s get people back to work, and kids back to school.
    A State of Emergency was declared in Victoria on 16 March 2020 to manage coronavirus (COVID-19) and has been extended to May 11. This provides the Chief Health Officer with additional powers to issue directions to help contain the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) and keep Victorians safe.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Robber I agree with you.
      All the ‘privacy’ rules are a major handicap
      On how we can deal with this CCP Wuhan virus.
      Instead of a targeted strategy,
      We are using a statewide & nation wide strategy.
      That is a very blunt instrument.
      Time to throw out these stupid privacy rules.

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    • #

      Robber, they can only open up clean regions that have hard borders, or one asymptomatic person could just drive in and muck everything up.

      The NT is good to go. WA and SA are reopening some things. We’ll see how that goes. Sadly rural areas in QLD, VIC and NSW will have to wait for their capitals to clear which is a costly shame and a waste. They should have been separated like they are in WA.

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  • #
    TedM

    Dr Vladimir Zelenko on hydroxychloroquine and zinc. Some of you won’t like the fact that it’s on Steve Bannon’s show, but get over it and listen to the doctor. Takes about 20 seconds to get to doctor Zelenko.

    https://youtu.be/QHFNJpRMlpg?t=364

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    • #
      Jeffrey Dun

      Thanks for sharing. Very interesting and very encouraging. If hydroxychloroquine and zinc is as effective as claimed then we may see an end to the world wide lockdowns earlier than expected.

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Good one Ted.

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  • #
    el gordo

    The people will not be stifled.

    ‘Growing numbers of Sydneysiders are on the move, data shows, and businesses are reopening, in signs people are losing patience with social distancing guidelines.’ SMH

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  • #
    RickWill

    Through the week I linked to an interview with the authors of Empty Planet. This presentation on global population forecasts gives some useful insights on the details of the book and its conclusion:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSAgHvETNSg

    Not as entertaining as Hans Rosling but a useful way to spend 90 minutes as an alternative to Netflix.

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    • #
      RickWill

      I have an interesting observation on the discussion that occurs around 45 minutes in on climate change. These authors have a concern that CC deniers will take their projections on population and say it is not as bad as the environmentalists make out. They then assure everyone that they believe the science is settled on CC and take the UNIPCC view on that.

      So on one hand they point out that the UN have it badly wrong on the global population projections because they are not looking at facts on the ground while they just accept that the UNIPCC have it dead right on climate change. Surely if you unearth a glaring error in one of the UN projections in YOUR field of study it may make you skeptical about the UN projections in OTHER fields of study.

      In a similar vein, I have great regard for Steve Keen as an economist. He was the economist lecturer that I did not have when I did a few units on economics some years ago. I could see the errors in the economic theory at the time but could not articulate them as well as Steve Keen. Basically he has turned economic theory upside down. He anhilates sacred cows like sovereign governments needing to balance their books; and he is spot on. However with CC he simply accepts that the science is settled. So in his own field he has identified glaring errors but simply accepts that the CAGW crowd have it right.

      I have often been amazed by how little educators really understand about what they teach. Most have firm belief that everything in a text book is correct.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Its all starting to fall apart…..good…

    PM …its a dumb idea…ditch it…now…

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-fascinating-test/12181404?nw=0&pfmredir=sm

    “Scott Morrison originally suggested at least 40 per cent of the population would need to download the app for it to be effective. After blowback from some of his own backbenchers worried about too much government intrusion, that 40 per cent benchmark was dropped.

    “Now the Prime Minister simply says the take-up needs to be “as high as possible”.

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  • #
    TdeF

    Both Breitbart and the Telegraph ran stories of Australia’s odd ANZAC day, with people in their driveways and long buglers. They have run the story of the cancellation of the Hadj, the first time in a thousand years.

    What they have not done is even mention that Australia and NZ are on the verge of eliminating this evil virus completely. With under 80 dead in Australia and hundreds more lives saved from other viruses.

    The stories are all about how a proportion of the population feel that if they are threatened, they should be able to do as they please. And obviously marginal businesses which desperately need income, clearly regardless of the cost to others.

    I suppose really good news does not sell. Or would produce a backlash. Australia might find that our great news is unreported.

    Like Cambodia on 122 cases and Vietnam on 268 and Brunei on 138 whose performance is astounding. And Indonesia with Australia sized infections at 7,775 but 270 million people, comparable to the USA. Even India on 20,000 out of 1.4Billion? Surely the tropical heat is helping?

    They are all isolating and much more agricultural societies, but with cities like Kolkata and old Delhi you have to wonder who they do it? Or is there more genetic resistance to Asian bat viruses?

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    • #
      Lance

      Tropical heat does not mean anything if the governments are not competent and the population still using crowded public transportation ‘cos economy can’t stop’. Manaus, a city a few degrees below the equator, in the middle of the Amazon Rainforest, over 3k+ cases, 255 deaths so far.
      I live in a state in the lower 30’s and the whole state has just over a thousand cases, 35 deaths. We´re having 16°C -ish degree days!

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Lance I look at the stats about Brazil on the
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/
        And shake my head in disbelief.
        Brazil is heading into a major pandemic disease disaster courtesy of Bolsanaro.

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        • #
          toorightmate

          So much for the “warm climate helps” theories.
          Sao P and Rio d J are pretty warm places, even in April/May.

          20

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Watch this space.

          Zelenko has been talking to them in recent days.

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          • #
            David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

            TedM at #22 has a link to a 14 min audio interview with Dr Velenko in which Brazil gets a mention, in the first few minutes. Fascinating. Thanks TedM.
            Cheers,
            Dave B

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        • #
          Lance

          You may check the official numbers from the brazilian government here https://covid.saude.gov.br/

          Unfortunately you may need to use a translator, but it shows you a full breakdown of the current situation in every state. The site is updated daily.

          Bolsonaro still denying the virus, and it turns out that he also follows Olavo de Carvalho, a known figure of the flat earth movement and the most prominent diffuser of this conspiracy in Brazil. Mr. Carvalho stated “Coronavirus does not exist”, so you can understand why the president refuses to change his mind, even after Trump, his rule model, did so.
          He refuses because the left supports a full lockdown, and going the other way around would mean he surrendered to them.

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  • #
    Lance

    Things are getting nastier in Brazil, but this ABC article is LYING. We have hotspots in a couple of states and the death are being buried in collective graves, but the good news is that most of the country still has enough coffins!!! 🙂

    ABC is paid 3 million a day from the Australian taxpayer and cannot do competent research!

    Bolsonaro already stated he WANTS 70% of the 210-million population contaminated. He thinks almost everyone will develop antibodies and will need nothing, not even HCQ, even though nothing can be done to avoid probably the biggest crisis Brazil will go through in history. He sacked the ministry of Justice Sergio Moro, which means he’s going to slash at least half of the 30% who still evaluate his govt as “very good or good”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-25/coronavirus-brazil-health-system-close-to-collapse-covid19/12184912

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Lance I’ve read that article from the ABC.
      Which aspects of it are wrong ?
      ( Genuine question mate. We are almost completely ignorant of Brazil )

      20

      • #
        Lance

        They’re wrong saying most of the country is doing as bad as Manaus. We indeed have some hotspots, but most of the countryside is not that bad. Some local governments in the most affected areas imposed city-wide lockdowns, and that’s it. Except for some businesses closed, life still much like the same. The federal government is completely ignorant about this virus, and studies from Universidade de São Paulo stated that we may have from 500.000 to a 1.000.000 infected. Brazil is also not testing that much.

        30

        • #

          Sadly Bolsonaro will give right wing leaders a bad name (not to mention killing a lot of Brazilians.)

          Lance I’m very interested in what is happening in Brazil. Do you think their testing is even close to accurate?

          11

  • #
    RicDre

    “Pointman on the vendetta on Willie Soon”

    An excellent article.

    It got me to wondering if about now Michael Moore is thinking that he has figuratively signed his own death warrant.

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  • #
    cedarhill

    An interesting view (from a popular US blog run by current and retired lawyers) where some of the facts are presented and argued. In this article, there are several facts which “begs the question” and a plea for truth telling.

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/courage-its-in-short-supply.php

    10

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      My Sundays aren’t complete without a visit to the above blog’s series, The Week In Pictures, a collection of satirical memes and cartoons and hilarious take-downs of the past week’s shenanigans and the nincompoops who orchestrated them.

      Yes, it’s USA-centric, yet there’s enough for we Downunders to comprehend: art is a universal language after all, and with all this backroom, behind-the-curtain, hidden agenda – whatever you want to name it – ‘stuff’ going on in 2020, a dose of chuckles always makes the heart lighter.

      As a doctor once told me (slicing yet another skin cancer out of me), laughter is the best medicine… and it’s free!

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    • #
      Annie

      We watched the interview with Hinderaker on Outsiders this morning, so will now look at his blog from time to time. I was sorry that the ad break prevented his finishing something he was trying to say…annoying!

      20

    • #
      RickWill

      The reason the curve is bending is because of the draconian lockdown. Get back to normal without social distancing and the curve will take a sharp upward turn.

      Sweden has still got restaurants and bars open. They are not bending the curve despite other restrictions. They are stuck at about 100 deaths per day for the foreseeable future. Their peak is still a month away and the virus will have killed 10k Swedes out of a population of 10M.

      Australian States are already relaxing restrictions with the virus being crushed.

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      • #
        cedarhill

        As Hinderacker has pointed out in other articles, the “flattening” has a lead time before you start seeing results. In the US, the “flattening” and peak occurred before the lead time could have any possible effect.

        Remember, lawyers simply love time lines and are skilled at digging out facts and then running them through the layman’s translation interpreter to explain to jurors. Legal folks call it casual effect and proximate cause and such. He’s 100% correct that using known facts of exposure, incubation and symptom presentation that the claim of “flattening” as a casual effect of lock downs is truly not possible.

        You can pretend to be a juror and do the time line and see for yourself. How would you vote in this case?

        The protesters in the US are a growing body of people that understand most of the issues including using models that are just insanely rediculous, death counts that are inflated and having to be adjusted downward (via coroners), infection rates that yield mortality rates well under 1%, hospitals that are going empty (lots of US video of empty hospitals, etc) with staffs being laid of because the “flattening” was only meant to not overwhelm hospitals and to reduce the millions of “excess deaths”. It’s not surprising some very upset people especially when they understand that all this was suposedly just to lengthen the infection.

        Many, in the US, actually believe that (a) CV-19 will kill them if they catch it and (b) the lock down will save them from catching it. Then, there’s the ruling class like the Governor of Virginia in an interview with a Richmond, VA newspaper, who stated in an interview, the controls may need to be kept until a vaccine is found that proves effective even if it takes two years.

        What has always concerned me is if the experts demanding lock down are ever proven wrong, there will be a backlash of possibly the same proportion as what kicked off the lock downs in the first place. There is no doubt that the mandated stay at home, business closing, etc., have had a huge impact. Entire families have been devastated and sinking into despair. Loss of jobs; no income; normal incompetence of governments to “offset” the lock downs; lack of normal medical treatment; even suspending cancer treatments. Entire US families have been devastated and either already have ran out of their “emergency funds” or never had a reserve to begin with. And for what, they ask?

        It’s a delicate time since the experts and the politicians since they must declare their actions successful and yet find a way forward before the natives decide all the bonfires they’ve been building to drive the demons away during the winter solstice so that the Sun will return is false.

        Hinderacker has made what the legal folks call a clear and convincing case that the lock downs, etc., were useless and we have plenty capacity, in the US, to handle any “spike” and always had.

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        • #
          RickWill

          As Hinderacker has pointed out in other articles, the “flattening” has a lead time before you start seeing results. In the US, the “flattening” and peak occurred before the lead time could have any possible effect.

          This is just rubbish. The flattening occurred 12 days AFTER draconian measures were taken on – the exact period from infection to hospitalisation for most people. In New York, the stay-at-home order was given on 22 March. New daily cases peaked at 10,400 on 4 April. There was a spike on Wednesday 15 April after Easter but a big dip before that so that is just reporting delay.

          Look at the data yourself rather than taking note of a dingbat with an agenda.

          Will be interesting to watch what happens in the USA. The virus is still in the community and people want to get back to normal. See how long that lasts once the deaths take off again.

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          • #

            Thanks Rick. Plus it’s hard to track compliance or voluntary isolation. Many people choose to keep kids home, and avoid restaurants before the government mandates it.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Rick,
        One of the things that interests me is whether the age profile of a nation has any relationship to the rate of deaths.
        At the moment we do have CV19 death figures as a function of age only.

        KK

        10

      • #
        yarpos

        False equivalence across the globe. Sweden tracks much like as the rest of EU and better than euromomo.eu

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Yarpos the key indicators are “Cases per Million” & “Deaths per Million”.
          If you go lookk at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
          You will see marked differences between the nations in the EU
          Some such as France, Spain & Italy are catastrophic.
          At the other extreme Finland & Poland are doing remarkably well
          For reasons which I do not know and have not seen explained anywhere.
          Sweden is tracking in the middle order
          It is of note only because it is not using any state ordered Lock Downs
          Though many persons are self isolating.

          20

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Yarpos, I have been in contact via Facebook
          With some Polish friends in Australia.
          And via them I got this message from a Pole working in a hospital there.
          It read ” Poland is not doing better
          The World of Meters site does not report true data on Poland.
          The government wants to win the elections to be held on 10 May.
          So they keep on lying and suppress the truth.
          Hospitals have no PPE for doctors and nurses
          Medical staff cannot test for the virus as if they did, there would be no one left to work.
          The situation in hospitals is critical but this hidden
          Doctors are punished if they say anything in public.

          Necessarily this needs to be anonymous.
          I did not expect to hear this.
          But clearly we need to scratch the idea that Poland is doing well.”

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  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    “On the state of antibody tests: from the Infectious Diseases Society of America (pdf);”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/25/wuhan-flu-on-the-state-of-antibody-testing/

    10

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Up top Bill says;

    “We are not allowed here to say bluntly
    In an Australian way.”

    Bill I think that the “two dogs” analogy is best left for the pub.

    KK

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Some people & countries have floated the idea of ‘Immunity Passports”
    As a way of restoring a level of international travel.
    But now the Irish head of the WHO’s emergencies program, Dr Mike Ryan
    has warned against them, saying that they could be misleading and
    Cause the further spread of the virus.

    I find this whole idea interesting.
    But can the WHO be trusted to be right ?
    I don’t know.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-who-warns-countries-against-handing-out-immunity-passports/news-story/bb6f5b9447911f5e06eed525b363a84d

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    • #
      TdeF

      There is no guarantee of immunity. Even of virus mutations like the flu each year, another corona virus. You can survive one flu and die from the nxt. Any virus has the effective lifespan of a gnat so how much change has this virus undergone in transmission through millions of replications? If this virus mutates very quickly, innoculations are suspect and we will chase this virus forever, another reason it has to be eliminated.

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  • #
    TdeF

    Very odd article in the Australian. “China sends medical team to North Korea amid speculation over Kim Jong-un’s health”

    Really? South Korea says there is nothing wrong and they should know. If nothing else, they are fluent in Korean and very close.

    And who send a whole medical team to a neighbour to see if he is in good health? Just passing and thought we would drop in?
    And who announces to the world that they are doing it?

    If Kim Jong Un is not ill, he may well soon be. An unfortunate victim. The basis of the extraordinary assassination by kimbots of his brother at Bangkok airport was because he feared a Chinese plot to replace him. And that would have to be with family because his position is as much religion as politics. China do not need more trouble with the world and they have their own nuclear testing to do.

    So you have to wonder how the conversation with this Chinese medical team is going to be conducted. And whether he will survive the initial health check.

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  • #
    Yonniestone

    For those with a wry sense of Australian humour a special thank you to our true heroes…celebrities.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih2fsHE1Vf8

    100

  • #
    RicDre

    I guess Boris Johnson hasn’t seen Michael Moore’s movie yet:

    UK & German Governments Plan to Turn Covid-19 into a Climate Action Opportunity

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/25/uk-german-governments-plan-to-turn-covid-19-into-a-climate-action-opportunity/

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    • #
      TdeF

      But he will. And he is just the sort of non science person to be influenced by it. And his fiance. In fact it’s very hard to refute anything in Moore’s movie.

      The revelation may just push Boris back into nuclear, like France. Margaret Thatcher went nuclear to break the hold of the Welsh miners. The UK has the expertise and nuclear power stations are the next best thing as they are non fossil fuel and no emissions and non polluting. (I am joking about the last two)

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  • #
    RicDre

    Low Electricity Demand and System Balancing Problems during The UK’s Coronavirus Lockdown

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/25/low-electricity-demand-and-system-balancing-problems-during-the-uks-coronavirus-lockdown/

    The restrictions on economic and personal activity imposed to address the spread of the coronavirus are reducing electricity demand in the UK to unusually low levels, increasing the difficulties of operating the system, particularly in the presence of embedded solar and wind generation.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Yet another reason to dispense with the renewables scam and get back to common sense approaches to provide base load power. If the West doesn’t then nations like China and India will eat us for breakfast in at least the economic sense. Competition is good but when one side is behind the 8 ball (the West) because of the renewables then it’s no longer a competition but an economic war.

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  • #
    Peter C

    We should all wear masks, even after the shut down ends.

    It was the right thing to prioritize healthcare workers, but instead of saying: “They’re much more useful to healthcare workers, so the right thing is to keep masks for them” they claimed that they were useless—or even dangerous—for the general public. That undermined the credibility of authorities.

    The mask is awesome, it catches almost everything (ie droplets)

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-basic-dance-steps-everybody-can-follow-b3d216daa343

    Indeed the message is that mask wearing alone can control the coronavirus pandemic.

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    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      Peter C,

      You guys can wear masks for as long as you wish, but I prefer the female look without them. Geoff S

      30

      • #
        TdeF

        Geoff, I thought that was a man’s name?

        30

        • #
          joseph

          TdeF, . . . . I’m a bit off topic, more than a bit actually, but here goes anyway . . . .

          Since our exchange a while back on the subject of B G I came across this information and thought it might be of interest.

          “It is well known in among programmers that Bill Gates didn’t write the operating system which made Microsoft known as DOS. Gary Kildall (1942-1994) wrote CP/M, an operating system that ran on early microcomputers based on 8-bits. IBM either couldn’t or wouldn’t make a deal with Kildall. Bill Gates bought what became MS DOS from Seattle Computer Products for $50,000 and licensed it to IBM.
          DOS was actually written by a 22-year old Tim Paterson (born June 1, 1956). How much of Kildall’s intellectual property he appropriated is a matter of some dispute. IBM later did make a deal with Kildall by some accounts after threatening to sue IBM because DOS infringed on his copyright. The early IBM PC was sold with both CP/M and DOS operating systems, but CP/M was sold at a much higher price. Many never were aware of the two systems. Most buyers simply chose MS DOS, which became the standard, or were steered toward MS DOS by IBM”. . . . . . Martin Armstrong armstrongeconomics.com

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          • #
            TdeF

            Roughly right. The amount was $US30,000 which would be $A50,000. I met an electronic engineer whose brother in law was Bill’s lawyer in the later case. The $30K was not enough years later, but Bill won that case as it was a fair deal at the time. No one knew the future. As for CP/M vs MSDOS, most systems were based on DOS like DEC systems with the same basic functionality. There were quite a few at the time, but the most famous was CP/M. There were lots of operating systems and CPUs and up to 150 floppy discs formats.

            In the end IBM had a bit each way and you could get MSDOS, PCDOS and CP/M, later CP/M86. PCDOS was just MSDOS rebadged. However remember IBM was just building a very basic home low resolution computer system with Bill’s built in BASIC-C to work with a TV set and a cassette player. A sort of Commodore or Atari or TRS/80. The mouse did not appear for another 15 years.
            The IBM PC was rubbish.

            However to the shock of IBM, their own corporate customers bought 1 million PCs of them in the next year, all with floppy discs, colour and screens and operating systems, not cassette driven ROM based basic. Soon they appeared with 5Megabyte hard discs too. The 8 colour 320×200, 640×400 colour resolution was inadequate, intended for your home television. Soon they had 640×400. It’s all history now. The other 100 plus suppliers quickly vanished, coming back with much cheaper PC ‘clones’.

            It seems the home entertainment system was not the big market but desktop computers. And the Spreadsheet, database and word processor Lotus-123 took off, although all anyone wanted was the spreadsheet. Bill had the excellent Multiplan which was knocked out but he came back with clone EXCEL. I could write a book or two on this and there is a lot more to say.

            However Bill missed a lot of things over the years and often had to play catch up. Database. Word processing. The big one was the internet. That was Steve Jobs who was fired by Apple and went to work for a phone company and quite another story, joining phones to computers. No one dreamed about movies over a telephone line and web sites and APPs then. It was just a data transfer system which became a messaging system often at no more than 2400bps or 300bps in Australia. Browsers changed all that. And Bill nicked the mouse idea from the Xerox laboratory at Palo Alto.

            In the current context of the virus, so much of our information comes from the internet. And in many ways the development of the virus on the web and in CPUs and operating systems has perfect parallels in the biological world. Except intent. In the case of Wuhan Flu, it looks very much like this one was engineered just to make a bat virus infective to humans. I would expect no one knew what the physiological results would be, except that it would be different and very nasty. It was likely scientists in Wuhan playing God on behalf of the military. And so far it has exceeded the lethal power of the atom bomb on Hiroshima.

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            • #
              joseph

              Now that’s what I call a reply! There’s always so much more to everything . . . .

              50

            • #
              Ian Hill

              Bill had the excellent Multiplan

              Multiplan! First spreadsheet I used, in 1986. I never heard anyone call it “excellent” but I liked it. In later years someone at work called it a “dinosaur” and we were all expected to use Lotus IMPROV. However the nature of our research work required something serious and EXCEL was begrudgingly approved.

              30

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              TdeF:

              It was Steve Jobs who saw the value of the mouse. He couldn’t believe that the Xerox Laboratory (or their superiors) couldn’t see anything in it.

              50

              • #
                TdeF

                Sorry Graeme, I wasn’t there. The mouse was certainly an essential part of the Apple and Apple Macintosh. It was also part of Windows 95. But the volume in Windows 95 was so great that a Microsoft Mouse was $250, 25 years ago. And there was a shortage. So perhaps they both stole the idea.

                The mouse I loved was the foot mouse, like a giant roll on deodorant ball you operated with your feet. For myself, I created a keyboard driven crosshair which did the same job as well. Still the mouse has become part of computer legend. And the basic unit of mouse movement was the Mickey.

                The real improvement of Microsoft was the right click, impossible on an Apple mouse. Anything was possible on a right click.

                30

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                TdeF I got my first Mac Computer in 1990.
                It came with a mouse.
                A computer savey mate was using Basic on his PC then
                He had to wait until 1997 for Windows to get a mouse compatible operating system.
                And even then he admitted it was stole from Apple.
                But Jobs at Apple stole the concept from Xerox Labs

                40

              • #
                RicDre

                Actually, the mouse was invented at the Augmentation Research Center under Doug Engelbart along with bit-mapped screens and hypertext and was first demonstrated in “The Mother of All Demos” in 1968. Xerox borrowed those ideas from the Augmentation Research Center and Microsoft and Apple borrowed it from Xerox. Also, most people forget that Apple’s first computer with a mouse based OS was the LISA which was a failure; the Mac was their second try at creating a computer with a moused-based operating system. Also, after Steve Jobs was fired from Apple, he found NEXT computer which was a BSD UNIX based mouse driven system. It failed for nearly the same reasons that the LISA did. When Apple re-hired Steve Jobs, he insisted that the NEXT OS be purchased by Apple which it was a later became the basis for a rewrite of the underling code of the MAC OS.

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              • #
                Graeme#4

                Windows 1.0 worked with a mouse but it was a dog. The first workable Windows was 3.0.

                10

              • #
                Slithers

                Bill in Oz, you were robbed. I sold A five unit network CPM system with 100 mb hard drives for $75,000 in 1984, my last sale as an self employed businessman.

                00

            • #
              RicDre

              The first spreadsheet program was VisiCalc create by Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston. Its conversion to run on the Apple II computer is the major reason why so many Apple II computers were sold to businesses and also the reason Apple Computer Company was so successful in its early years.

              30

              • #
                Red Edward

                Actually the first “spreadsheet” wasn’t on a PC. It was on an IBM Mainframe. It was called IFPS. It was a weird beastie, I had to take a course in it in 1982, in it’s “dying” days. You could write code in it like a programming language, but it built an array, and worked like a spreadsheet. (It even sorted the code you wrote into a logical sequence.) I think it first cost over $100,000 USD when it first came out. (1971, if memory serves me.) The guy who designed VisiCalc, had played with it, I read back in the day, and VisiCac was a one-lunged cut-down version, simple enough to run on an 8 bit PC.

                Yep, I am old enough to remember those days. . . .

                40

              • #
                RicDre

                IFPS was more of a finacial modeling language than a true spreadsheet. According to Wikipedia, it was created by professor Gerald R. Wagner and his students of the University of Texas at Austin in the late 1970s.

                Visical was created in 1979 and was the first true spreadsheet, but like all software, it had a number of ancestors of which IFPS was one.

                Acording to Wikipedia, “IFPS was available for a variety of platforms, including IBM mainframes (VM/CMS), DEC VAX, various flavors of Unix, DOS-based PCs and Macintosh Computers (named “Mindsight”- running on two floppies).”

                The first spreadsheet program I used on a mainframe was an application called “MegaCalc”. Our company purchased it to try to stem the tide of PCs being purchased to run LOTUS 123 (and later, EXCEL). As MegaCalc was run on IBM 3270 screen (80 characters wide by 24 Lines tall) it it was of limited use and after a few years, the company quietly dropped the program. Hardly anyone noticed that it was gone.

                20

            • #
              Graeme#4

              The first IBM PC AT came out with a 10 MB hard disk IIRC. Cost around A$20,000. When I bought my first home PC, cost around $2500 in 1980s money.

              20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                !990, A Mac with 10 meg hard drive and 1 meg of Ram
                + $2995.00
                A lot of money in those days.

                It was superceeded by better Macs within 2 years.
                Larger HD’s & much more RAM
                And eventually a colour screen….
                Wow !

                00

              • #
                sophocles

                I used to have a full height 10mB hard drive as a door stop for years. It performed that duty with absolute reliability. It was dead, of course.

                I used a second one as a desktop paperweight. Not a single sheet of paper escaped that one. Pity it was dead.

                I had the two XT’s they came from in my collection until a year or two ago when I embarked on a massive cleanout. They were running still fully functionally, each with a 20MB half height NEC (and half the weight) hard drive. They hadn’t been used in over 30 years so they had to go. Bye DOS (DOS = Dumb Operating System 😀 It was as much of a boat anchor as those 10MB hard drives …)

                00

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Masks are useful especially in very high density places.
      In the Philippines masks are almost compulsory.
      And NGO’s have been giving masks to the poor
      To help them gain some protection from this foreign virus.

      But on lower density places this advantage is not so evident.

      30

      • #
        Peter C

        I agree,

        I meant that masks should be worn in shops and shopping centres and public gatherings etc.

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    • #
      toorightmate

      When I grew up, the kids wearing the masks were the bad guys.
      Perhaps I haven’t grown up?

      60

  • #
    dinn, rob

    did Trump’s bleach get fat boy the great?

    31

  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    “Dr. Deborah Birx: Dramatic Decrease in “Hospital Use, ICU Needs and Deaths by End of May”… ”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/25/dr-deborah-birx-dramatic-decrease-in-hospital-use-icu-needs-and-deaths-by-end-of-may/

    10

  • #
    Mal

    https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation
    This has just been released
    The data from the USA as now analysed suggests very strongly that the rate in healthy people is very low
    Once this becomes common knowledge the healthy mob and the one who are going to bear the ongoing pain might just suddenly revolt
    Politicians have to come clean
    The hysterical and outraged media need to have a very hard look at themselves and to let they have played in all of this

    32

  • #
    JanEarth

    Re HCQ and CQ in treating CCP virus infections

    Brazillian study found The preliminary findings from CloroCovid-19 trial suggest that the higher dosage of CQ (12 g
    total dose over 10 days) in COVID-19 should not be recommended because of safety
    concerns regarding QTc prolongation and increased lethality, in the Brazilian population

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v1.full.pdf

    New York study came to the same conclusions:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20047050v1.article-info

    The Swedes who are not adverse to taking risks with their citizens lives also stopped using it.

    https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368

    The French also stopped using it.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/france-reports-heart-incidents-linked-to-drug-promoted-by-trump

    The original study was very limited and flawed

    https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/miracle-cure-testimonials-aside-azithromycin-and-hydroxychloroquine-probably-do-not-work-against-covid-19/

    So stop with the woo people… CQ and HCQ are no use and put the lives of older patients at risk. Just because it is cheap and out of patent does not mean there is a conspiracy afoot to supress this “Miracle cure” It is of much use as drinking disinfectant !

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    • #
      Lucky

      JanEarth
      I comment on the website refs you gave which claim to show that HCQ is ineffective and dangerous. Pardon if I have not looked at all, obvious reasons.

      1. Even good studies sometimes get retracted.
      2. There are trials basing results against past trials, and
      3. There are trials with double-blind protocols, these can take years.

      The work of Dr Didier Raoult on the use of HCQ for CCP19, covering hundreds of cases, is in the 2nd group, but so is all of the work that is behind the reputation of Dr Fauci.
      Dr Fauci is well known as a top bureaucrat in health admin.
      (Dr Fauci- Supporter of WHO, funder of the Wuhan lab, acolyte of Bill Gates)
      Dr Raoult has an international reputation as top scientist researcher in the field.

      A paper that finds it necessary to sneer at a politician is a polemic not a scientific paper.
      A paper that reports on vision defects developing with HCQ should for credibility mention that this is a well known effect after use of HCQ for several years, it was not a barrier to use as malaria is worse than vision side effects. Did that paper report on vision testing of patients before HCQ treatment?
      Further, treatment for CCP19 with HCQ takes days not years.

      The other refs are likewise serious sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

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      • #
        JanEarth

        Lucky

        The first of his trio of scientific crap was an unrandomized study that claimed that the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin eliminated the virus completely compared to controls or hydroxychloroquine alone. Its flaws were so numerous and manifest as to make the study painfully uninformative. Indeed, based on the shenanigans Raoult engaged in with the data, plus his history of fabricating data, I now suspect, but obviously cannot prove, scientific fraud. Even the International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy (ISAC), which publishes the journal that published this study, backed away, even going so far as to state that the article “does not meet the Society’s expected standard, especially relating to the lack of better explanations of the inclusion criteria and the triage of patients to ensure patient safety.” Muddying the waters is a second statement issued a week later, apparently at the behest of Elsevier, that seems to soften the criticism and points out that the journal’s peer review process had been followed, even as it suggests a possible joint investigation with Elsevier.

        The second study in the trio was a single arm case series that consisted of a huge percentage of COVID-19 patients treated with azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine who were not very ill at all. Only 15% of them even had fever, even though data from around the world show that 90% of symptomatic COVID-19 patients have fever during the course of their illness. Basically, the vast majority of these patients were patients who would have been sent home and told to self-quarantine, with instructions to call or go to the emergency room if they get significantly worse and especially if they start experiencing shortness of breath. Raoult claimed that the combination of azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine was very effective in clearing the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but there’s no way of knowing if these patients wouldn’t have cleared the virus anyway. It, too, was a singularly uninformative study.

        The third study is no better. As of last night, Raoult has published only an abstract and a data table for 1,061 patients treated with his azithromycin/hydroxychloroquine combination, with no full manuscript yet. Of course, this dataset suffers from even more issues than his previous papers, as there are no methods to look at, and we can’t look at his study design in depth or his inclusion/exclusion criteria. Taking the results at face value, between March 3 and April 9, Raoult’s group tested 59,665 specimens from 38,167 patients for COVID-19 by PCR. There were 3,165 patients who tested positive, of which 1,061 met Raoult’s unstated inclusion criteria and were treated with his azithromycin/hydroxychloroquine combination. The mean age of the patients was 43.6 years old, and 492 (46.4%) were male. The results further state that a “good clinical outcome and virological cure” were observed in 973 patients within 10 days (91.7%), with prolonged viral carriage in 47 patients (4.4%), with viral clearance in all but one by day 15. They further observed: —A poor outcome was observed for 46 patients (4.3%); 10 were transferred to intensive care units, 5 patients died (0.47%) (74-95 years old) and 31 required 10 days of hospitalization or more. Among this group, 25 patients are now cured and 16 are still hospitalized (98% of patients cured so far). Poor clinical outcome was significantly associated to older age (OR 1.11), initial higher severity (OR 10.05) and low hydroxychloroquine serum concentration. In addition, both poor clinical and virological outcomes were associated to the use of selective beta-blocking agents and angiotensin II receptor blockers (P 3 days of HCQ-AZ than in patients treated with other regimens both at IHU and in all Marseille public hospitals (p< 10-2).

        When the overwhelming percentage of the patients you treat have mild or asymptomatic disease, then of course should expect to observe that the fatality rate among these patients will be low, no matter what you do. The fatality rate he came up with 0.5% is basically the same fatality rate for all cases of CCP virus.

        Everywhere this is used it ends up the same…it has to be discontinued because of it’s toxicity. It really does not matter what you think it will never be mainstream for this disease.

        I have a lot of personal experience with Plaquenil as I took it for about 24 months. It’s not without side effects and if you don’t need it you really would not want to take it.

        All quotes taken from : https://respectfulinsolence.com/2020/04/14/didier-raoult-bad-science-bully/

        06

        • #
          Lucky

          JanEarth. From your post-
          “discontinued because of” “toxicity”
          Tests of all kinds have been performed on HCQ, and CQ, since 1955. Its downsides are well known. On top of the risks such as heart irregularity I understand it is quite unpleasant to use. The risks, toxicity and unpleasantness clearly were insignificant compared to letting malaria continue. It is now prescribed for conditions including lupus and types of arthritis for which alternative medications exist. Studies which claim to have uncovered new dangers should be explicit on what and how, perhaps there is some particular harmful interaction specific to this virus? A psychic action depending only on the level of PC of the researcher?

          “I took it for about 24 months.. “. you imply that you needed it. No doubt it was prescribed on good advice that considered risks and benefits. May I take the liberty of assuming, and applauding, that it worked?

          “.. it will never be mainstream for this disease.”
          Maybe, but consider, very large quantities of this medication have disappeared, at least in Australia. Without a prescription you cannot get it. The inference is interesting.

          We can all regret that with the current HCQ trials there are pressures interfering with good data collection such as what dosages were used. This applies to both the pro, and the con, reports. The verdict is not in, therefore patients should not be denied an informed decision to use CHQ as the dollar cost is very low and the expected gains exceed the expected downside.

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      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Yes Lucky. Spot on.

        I’d refer JanEarth to #4.0 above and the links to get an analysis of the Brazil study. It’s a crock. Ditto the New York study.

        They are both political “science”, anti-science, endeavours to put some substance onto the anti-Trump attacks of the Democrats and those others who have a vested interest in expensive treatments. Their interest is in lining their pockets. Their competition is the $20 to $30 HCQ + Zinc + Z-pack cocktail that has repeatedly demonstrated its efficacy.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          From what I have read ( mainly on Chiefio ) HCQ & Zinc work well if given early in an infection…
          But are . dangerous when prescribed for severely ill patients.
          So there is science on both sides
          Which is being used by either side in the USA in a political battle.

          Just what we need when an infectious pandemic is happening :
          The politicisation of the whole disease !
          Utterly wonderful !
          Sarc off !

          PS Lance who lives in Brazil says that the situation is becoming a disaster in some states with the medical & hospital system being overloaded. And that this is mostly the result of President Bolsanaro’s pig headed refusal to even recognize that this is a serious pandemic disease.

          40

        • #
          Lucky

          Yes, the $20 to $30 apples to entire drug regime per treatment.
          Compare with the price to be charged by the supplier of the upcoming vaccine,
          $500? $5,000, .. no matter, it does not exist. So when? End of 2021 or 2022, or mid 2025 or whenever.
          Exercise 1. The cost benefit calculation from the viewpoint of the patient.
          ‘ 2. The health system
          ‘ 3. From the viewpoint of .. a couple of names often mentioned.

          60

    • #
      DOC

      It always seemed a bit stupid using doses 3times usual dosages for treating patients with a
      drug known to have cardiac rhythm effects even if those effects are rare at the standard dosage.
      There is another curve for some drugs that are effective for purpose at one dose size, but have
      little more effect at double that dose except to increase side effects eg Rosuvastatin.
      As an aside, one read ~20years ago an equivalent of a ‘dose-response’ curve for CO2 on global warming which was similar to that of Rosuvastatin and dose-effect… (even if ‘anecdotal’ and in a
      science based booklet on AGW put out by a financial management company))

      30

      • #
        DOC

        Just to be complete, (I dare say the article has been torn apart by ‘science’ since), the reason I recall that graph was that my interest was simply medical. It was drawn to the article because it
        was saying most of the greenhouse effect of CO2 was at concentrations barely above the levels
        required to stimulate our Respiratory centres, and its GH effects rose very little beyond those levels. Unfortunately, I left the booklet (all on AGW and why it was a myth)overseas, in the home of a relative who was a true believer and whom I had hoped to silently ‘educate’.

        10

  • #
    RickWill

    The linked document is being touted as ScoMo’s song book for post CV19 recovery:
    https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity-review/report/productivity-review.pdf
    Note the SchoMo was the Treasurer when this report was produced. That means he will relate easily to it.

    I do not hold much hope of things changing for the better. This is what is stated on Australian productivity:

    On the other hand, income growth, particularly for wage earners, has stalled. Labour productivity is lower than both the ‘golden era’ of the mid-1990s, and the lengthy prosperous period from 1950 to 1970.

    I authored reports for various companies and business associations for the productivity reports in the late 80s and early 90s. Those reports shone light on two two key impediments to productivity; environmental impediments from multiple government departments and the inefficiency in the energy supply sector, which was all government owned.

    So here we are in 2020 wondering why productivity has been sliding since 2004. There is no where in this 2017 productivity report that identifies CAGW as a major impediment to productivity. Think of what this single factor has done to the cost of electricity in the country. Think of what it has done to building anything other than wind generators and solar farms – Carmichael Mine the perfect example.

    The report recommends implementing a carbon tax! This is from recommendation 5.1:

    stop the piecemeal and stop-start approach to emission reduction, and adopt a proper vehicle for reducing carbon emissions that puts a single effective price on carbon

    50

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Who’s touting this rubbish Rick ?
      It could be someone’s play to influence the future.

      32

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Rick,

      A good outline. Having worked in the local heavy industries for nine years until the early seventies I witnessed an astounding change in work ethic accompanied by government interference in the business.

      The product that went into the Sydney Tower was the main turning point for me when politics seemed to determine product quality and safety.

      The plant is still functioning forty eight years later but the mood among staff has been very subdued because feed stock comes from a declining steel industry down south or overseas and quality is variable. Hanging on only. Feed stock was once a 10 minute train trip. That can now be several days.

      Just one small example of a once productive factory that is ready to kick the bucket.

      It’s the Model for all Australian industry.

      Career politics has ruined this nation and the climb back out from the CV19 thing might be out last chance to revitalise things.

      If government fails to initiate the right changes we don’t have a big future.

      KK

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Repeal Section 487 of the EPA and BC Act (1999) and we’re well on our way to boosting productivity.

      Just get on with it Prime Minister.

      70

      • #
        TdeF

        And the 2000 Renewable Energy(Electricity) Act, the so called RET. It was illegal in the first place.

        80

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      RickWill, ” … two key impediments to productivity; environmental impediments from multiple government departments and the inefficiency in the energy supply sector”
      My colleagues and I were on the receiving end of this bureaucratic interference.
      By 1993 when I retired from minerals, the team I helped manage for 20 years had discovered 13 new mines, including Ranger One uranium. several at Tennant Creek Au/Cu/Bi, the several porphyry coppers at Parkes, the Lake Cowal gold mine near West Wyalong, the gold mine at Kanowna near Kalgoorlie and a few others. The value of sales from these calculated in 2015 and in 2015 dollars was somew $billion 64. Also, we operated mines at Mt Morgan AuCu, King Island tungsten and Robe River iron. Robe River gained a place in history when we sacked 1,200 workers and offered them jobs back on condition that they renounce all union activity. Most came back, profits jumped and the dafety record increased a great deal. We were hindered by the WA government in particular, from making this reform. Also, we owned APPM, one of the 3 largest pulp/paper/forestyry companies of the times. (I sat in on monthly management meetings of the various mining and paper departments by 1993).
      This resources money did not go into our pockets. As with all resource developments, it found its way into the community.
      The biggest impediment was from bureaucrats. At Ranger, we lost several projects developiong into mines when the United Nations world heritage mechanism was used to lock them up. Later, we lost potential beach sand mines at Shoalwater Bay near Rocky and at Lockhart River in Cape York, again to world heritage. Apart from these spectacular losses, we were forced into delays and spending.
      One case that sticks in mind was the 2-3 days I spent hosting some guys from some green Canberra department who were concerned (as was I) about that lovely native tree, the river red gum, on the shore of Lake Cowal where we wanted to cut an open pit. These guys came all that way via Parkes to inspect the potential for damage. It amounted to one tree needing to be chopped down. This delayed the start of a mine that so far has produced $ 4 billion of gold (in 2015 values).
      We were often at the forefront of protests against resources developments, what with paper mills, tree chopping, uranium mining, union bashing — you name it. It got so heavy thet I had moved from my science function of geochemistry to running government relations to try to fight off bureaucratic meddling. Some we won, some we lost, against an ever increading tide.
      Sorry about this mini rant becoming maxi, but your words touched a latent nurve that sprang ionto life again. It you ever want first hand examples of interference, do let me know. I can add up ten billion $$$ of damage fairly credibly. Geoff S

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        Geoff was one of the mines for Pecko mines out at Warrego ? Worked there back in the late 1980’s .

        20

        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          RR,
          Yes, Warrego was one found by the careful application of geophysical modelling of the way that discrete bodies containing magnetite disturb the normal magnetic field of the Earth in ways that can get measured at the surface, with typically a grid pattern and a very sensitive magnetometer. My geophysical colleagues developed this method, which was particularly suited to the geology around Tennant Creek. They led the world with the pure and applied science which was executed with none of the nonsense like homogenization and guessing that is so common in climate work. When people question models, I know of this one which was exquisite and returned a billion $$$ from Warrego. Geoff S

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      • #
        RickWill

        Geoff
        Did you know Ken Lonie?

        10

  • #
    JanEarth

    Proof the CCP is lying…systematic CCP abuse of Africans ( White and Black)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsnHUrpD__E

    A look at life in a repressive regime

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUNE5Os2zCA&t=382s

    Do you believe the CCP has their virus under control ? Then they have you fooled

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQaNdTKQyLY

    A word about SerpentZA. Winston has been living and working for over a decade in China. He speaks fluent mandarin and has a Chinese wife. He and a friend of his also have another channel ADVChina where they travel and report extensively around China on motorcycles.

    About 2 years ago both the men started to notice a distinct move back to the old ways of the CCP…increased surveillance and a return to Maoist style propaganda. Things got so bad both men fled to the USA with their families last year. This was after a nasty run in with the CCP in Mongolia during one of their motorbike adventures. If you want to get a good feel for China have a look at the other videos they are well done and very informative.

    Disclaimer: I have been a subscriber to all 3 channels for quite a while and am a fan.

    40

    • #
      el gordo

      Beijing is out of step with the international community.

      ‘Wu Qiang, a former politics lecturer at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, said the nationalistic social media articles reflected a China-centric vision that was inconsistent with the prevailing international order.

      “It’s similar to the tribute system back in ancient times that put China in the centre of the world,” he said.

      South China Morning Post

      30

  • #
    PeterS

    Straight from the horse’s mouth:
    “The bottom line is from those of us who have studied it and have a background in this is, lockdown versus non lockdown did not produce statistically different numbers of deaths. That is the bottom line.”

    Interesting.

    California ER Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi speak out

    52

    • #
      toorightmate

      Surprise, surprise.
      We will probably not get the figures to establish whether we get more suicides emanating from the closure of businesses and unemployment than we did from deaths as a result of the virus.
      Did the deaths from the virus do anything at all to the life expectancy numbers for females and males?
      I doubt it.

      31

      • #
        PeterS

        Reports of unintended consequences of the lock downs have already been reported. Not just suicides, although I suspect they would be small in numbers. No exact figures due to other causes but the estimates are scary. People are not going to clinics and the like to have tests carried out for cancer, etc.. This means some are put at risk unnecessarily. Too many unknowns. No one can conclude for sure at this stage whether it would have been better for say Australia to go the Swedish way or not. Anyway, what’s done is done. We need to move on and get on with an exit strategy ASAP.

        31

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Did they study Australia?
      If this is the Bakerfield ER duo doctors
      The answer is no.

      10

      • #
        PeterS

        Not sure. I still think it’s too early days to get the full story. Even the doctors admitted the lock downs were the right thing to do at first anyway. It was the logical thing to do when not much is known about the virus and the situation, which is pretty much still the case. What they are saying now is they have sufficient real data (as distinct form modelling) to show the lock downs were unnecessary. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. If true then the right course of action now is to relax our restrictions in a controlled fashion.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Bakersfiedl is a city of roughly 290,000 in the Central valley of california
          I drove through it once in the 1980’s..
          So not a big city like San Diego or LA or San Francisco or even Sacramento.
          So their view may be affected by this lack of population density.

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          toorightmate

          Peter,
          Far more people died from suicide in Australia than Coronavirus during March and April.
          How many of these are due to Coronavirus is unknown, but I expect the already horrible rate of suicide to worsen in June, July, etc, etc because of Coronavirus related economic effects.
          However, no one will record those stats.
          I expect that deaths from pneumonia will now again increase after being almost non-existent through March and April.

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    Another Ian

    Serious reading here IMO

    “The war against Christianity.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2020/04/25/the-war-against-christianity/

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Moderation? Is SDA off limits now?

      [If you’re still missing a comment let me know , but I think you’re talking about #49 which was caught in the filter but released .
      AD

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    Slithers

    Crystal Ball Gazing.
    In a few years, or perhaps a decade into our future, Australia will be a very different place. That is dependent upon the right policies and direction taken in the next year or so. How long before Australia has to make the tough decision to lock its boarders depends upon the beast that is SARSCoV2. If asymptomatic caused out-breaks are still occurring in Australia by years end then humanity is in deep trouble as that would indicate lock-down of towns and cities would become a regular event. Looking on the brighter side then when Australia is Covid-19 free I foresee a need for rigid isolation of Australia, from those nations that are not Covid-19 free. Please note the distinction between my use of the name of the virus and the disease it causes. What follows is my most optimistic view of our future.

    I see Australia as THE world leader while the rest of the world struggles to exist with continual out-breaks of mutated strains of SARSCoV2 and the resultant pandemics of COVID-20,21,22,23…… This new status relies upon Australia remaining free of the virus in all it’s forms, strict quarantine, rigidly enforced with hash penalties for any that would try flout them and I mean really harsh, huge monetary fines, any family members in Australia of the attempted evaders, expelled never to return, That Harsh!

    Here is how that can/could be achieved in a world where SARSCoV-2 and all its mutations continue to be a plague that threatens the extinction of all human existence.

    Australia crushes the pandemic and enforces quarantine until there are no more out-breaks, this means NO entry without quarantine! The re-construction of Australia slowly takes place, some regions earlier than the big cities and hot spots. There are enough resources already here to start that task, maintaining it becomes rather problematical as those resources cannot be replenished if the rest of the world has been decimated by Covid-19. Steel being the major shortfall, Diesel fuel is a close second!

    Let me address Steel first, there is a vast supply of good quality Iron ore in the Pilbara, there is a good source of premium coking coal in the costal regions of NSW, there is a vast supply of Dolomite in various regions. Iron ore, coke and dolomite when smelted produce steel that does not rust! So why is that important, you have heard of Exports and sustainability and things built to last?

    The problem Australia will face is that those resources and the equipment required by those men who know how to mine and smelt are rather a long way from each other, to make lots of good steel needs those resources being connected, which brings me to diesel fuel. Initially there will be a glut of crude oil and some refinery capacity can be imported and then the crude refined here, but those oil producers will soon dry up as workers die and regions become unstable or using all they can produce so none for export to Australia, this necessitates those mighty diesel locomotives that haul iron ore across long distances over routes that do not lend themselves to electrification, be modified to use LPG , or be replaced. All will eventually need to be replaced. All those mighty locomotives will need help over the great divide and once moving don’t need all the locos running so they either become a dead weight or are used as starter and banker locos. Right of way to full loads need be applied to avoid being stalled somewhere out there!
    All new builds will be Australian design and built to last. Farm machinery, private motor vehicles all to run on LPG. Aluminum used were weight is critical providing it is not subject to wear. Dams and pipelines will be laid to improve crop yields and Australia can become the remaining human populations food supply. Coal mines and coal fired electricity generation will need to be there 24/365!

    Eventually some regions of the world will adopt the Australian method to crush the virus and those regions will be hungry for ‘Made in Australia’ goods and food.

    This is just a quick view of what may come to pass!

    I hope this is a future that does not eventuate but, as in the old Boy Scout moto ‘Be Prepared’.

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    Broadie

    For the Professor Peter Ridd career ending bravery award I nominate:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dr-erickson-covid-19-briefing/vi-BB133JTK

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    Bill In Oz

    Here’s chance to inform Amnesty International that we don’t think that Climate Chnage is important
    Go to this link and tell them what you think !
    https://jalt445200.typeform.com/to/jTBzO7?source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0E3z-6w-xlnkYcHZQ2prkhT0Gr3rZbsz_iBJHR6-8HXFDh3tbzVmWs99Y

    PS Of course they also want personal details & maybe money..
    But there is no way they can check to see how accurate the details provided are.

    10

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Any legal experts out there have an opinion on what this guy says to make one government official and a heap of police backdown and leave after trying to gain access to his property .

    https://vimeo.com/411499182?fbclid=IwAR0DFAwU3Kp41XMWfjuNdefmisunNEbauRFJufsBv6z0WKDu4BoJBHFqN7g

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    cedarhill

    For those with time on their hands and are mechanically inclined, here is an article about building ventilators for $500 USD apiece.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-innovators-want-to-help-africans-breathe-through-covid-19/

    20

  • #

    Nice piece on statistics and the panic:
    https://www.aier.org/article/an-egregious-statistical-horror-story-suffused-with-incense-and-lugubrious-accents/

    My next article is titled: Tale of two Panics — Covis & Climate

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      The more I look at the situation the more the two seem to be driven by the same things — money of course but also power and personal professional standing. And last but not least, Donald trump who can’t resist talking before he knows what he’s talking about.

      In spite of the fact that Trump knows what to do for the country he remains the same egotistical jerk I thought he was when he hosted,The Apprentice, an appalling TV show.

      You can’t win them all.

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      • #
        Orson

        Trump is “the same egotistical jerk” he used to be on his reality TV show for NBC? I’m not sure I can judge sameness, if only because I didn’t watch The Apprentice (nor any so-called reality TV shows.

        I am a friend (as well as a friend of a friend) of economist Steven Moore who worked with Trump in the West Wing of the White House as his advisor, as well as during the campaign.

        Quite on a humorous note, Moore says that – unlike other recent presidents (take Bill Clinton, please, take him) – Trump can be a(n insulting) jerk in public, while being very polite in person. (Bill Clinton was the reverse: famously he can “feel your pain” in public, yet nearly rapacious in private, to go by Paula Jones winning lawsuit, or…I forget the other woman’s name despite recalling her image….)

        A final point I learned about Trump during the last presidential campaign: he does not insult or name call except after having been denigrated in public already. (Yes, I’ve kept close score.)

        The media forever keep this redemptive fact from the public light, and he forever enjoys trolling their hatred. And I find this a joy to watch in the People’s’ President. Having worked in the electronic media and having a dozen close friends there and in J-school, a viscous Ill-regard is well-earned.

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          Kalm Keith

          That’s illuminating.

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          el gordo

          Orson you have the man’s character in a nutshell, Donald is intellectually shallow but has strong intuition. This has served the American public very well up until now, bringing the jobs back home was a masterstroke.

          Do you think Covid-19 is a Chinese hoax?

          60

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        Kalm Keith

        Hi Roy,

        Whatever Trump may be, the important thing for the country is that the U.S. seems to have moved in a more positive direction than where it had been. If I remember correctly you have mentioned something like this previously.

        KK

        41

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          That’s Trump in a nutshell, Keith. He intuitively grasps the right way to run a country. He could not have built the business empire he has if he could not navigate life successfully. His children would not say the things they do about their father if he wasn’t able to know the right way to parent, to be a father

          Something else about Trump:Before North Korea signaled willingness to talk Un leader was Rocket Man but once the situation changed Kim Jong Un was a nice guy and a buddy, etc. You cant talk to someone if you make him an enemy. Remember, Trump wrote, “The Art of the Deal.” He wants to convince Un to change his ways without going to war.

          Yet he still stands up and speaks before he knows what he’s talking about and and giving the media all the more reason to tear him down in the public eye. He may lose the November election. The Democrats have alnosr endless money lined up against him and the public does not pleased with the lockdown.

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    Orson

    Here is a look at the current situation in Iceland, enjoying its first day with no new infections in over 7 weeks.

    Iceland has been touted by some as a model to emulate. However, they have had a ban on gatherings of more than 20 people. So that does not appear to be the case since they report numbers close to New Zealand – about 1800 infections and 10 deaths – yet an order of magnitude fewer of total population.
    https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland

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  • #
    el gordo

    Australia has 25.5 million people and 83 deaths, while NYC has 8.5 million people and 12,000 deaths.

    Why is it so?

    20

    • #
      RicDre

      “Australia has 25.5 million people and 83 deaths, while NYC has 8.5 million people and 12,000 deaths. Why is it so?”

      I don’t know, but part of the reason may be that NYC has 8.5 million people living in an area of about 784 square kilometres connected to the outside world by a large number of international airlines where as Australia has 25.5 million people living in an area of 7,682,300 square kilometres connected to the world by a few international airlines.

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        yarpos

        Summer vs Winter (Vit D), density as per Rics comment, different strain? , different levels of core public health, different levels of public health capability and prep, different timing and risks in transport both international and local, 8.5 million embedded in heavily populated NE corner. Seems useless even comparing the two.

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    el gordo

    Some good news, immigration has been halted and the people rejoice.

    ‘Projections prepared for the Herald by consultancy SGS Economics and Planning show Sydney will add only 15,600 people next financial year if the economy does not recover quickly from the coronavirus-induced downturn. That’s less than a fifth of the city’s population growth last financial year of 87,000.’ SMH

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  • #
    Another Ian

    “Attempts to limit distribution of Planet of the Humans”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/04/26/attempts-to-limit-distribution-of-planet-of-the-humans/

    And the link!

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    cedarhill

    For those that like to unravel mysteries regarding numbers, in the US Reuters is reporting on captive (literally) populations where full testing of each member of the population was conducted that 96% of positive cases were asymptomatic. See:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX

    Compare that to the 50% +/- asymptomatic that tested positive on “captive” population of the Diamond Princess and the USS Theodore Roosevelt where all members were tested.

    Also note the real captives (the prisoners) also had very high infection rates (up to 88% but over all around 70%).

    21

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      An interesting accidental experiment in
      Unusual circumstances.
      Locked up prisoners in crowded jails
      Allowed to be infected by visitors
      Hopefully by accident
      Because no lock down policy happened early enough.

      Ignorance combined with stupidity will always yield such results.
      But I hope this is not typical of what happens in Australia.

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      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus — 96% without symptoms

        96% without symptoms…What great news!

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        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          It might have something to do with the fact that the prison population are eating better with less access to junk food that lead to very high comorbidity.

          My Diagnosis:…To really protect a population, junk food should be controlled and restricted during pandemics.

          Intense speculating here as i am not an expert 🙂

          30

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            But the evidence will come from checking out the meals provided.
            Last time I heard prisons go for the cheaper food options to keep costs down

            10

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Cheaper, less processed food is exactly the kind of food that is more healthy.

              30

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                No mate
                High carbohydrate
                Vegetable oil foods
                With lots of sugar
                Is Cheaper by far !
                Check out KFC or Macca’s.

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      Raving

      Something is definitely up in all this. Somebody’s numbers are way off. Going to put huge pressure on explosive reopening

      20

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  • #
    Robber

    Meanwhile, Australian wholesale electricity prices continue to plummet.
    Vic price dropped to just $11/MWhr on Sunday, and the other states were all under $25.
    That compares to Vic $36 for April and YTD average of $80/MWhr, last year $110.

    50

  • #
    Furiously curious

    Replying to Slithers #15
    Huang Yanling from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

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    DonS

    Hi Jo,

    Have you downloaded your app yet? Sorry just kidding, but apparently over 1 million idiots attached to a smart device have. If Big government, Big media and Big business are urging us to do something it’s probably better to stay away from it. Only want your name, number and postcode, no chance the info could be cross-referenced with the ATO, DHS, AFP, etc. etc. If they don’t how will they track down those disobeying the government? Hmmm?

    Just on the discussion of what to do with the elderly, has anyone seen a resident of a nursing home interviewed and asked what they want? They are not all mentally incompetent and deserve to be consulted on their fears, needs or whatever and not just arbitrarily locked up, for their own good. It sticks in my craw that the greatest generation, those who fought and crushed the twin Marxists threats of Nazism and Bolshevism are given no say on if they want to see their families and friends by people who to me show all the signs of being fascists in white coats.

    Governments all over Australia have been falling over themselves to pass so called right to die laws, apparently you are allowed to commit suicide but if you are of a certain age you are unable to decide if you want to risk catching a bug. Much better to be locked up for weeks on end with no outside contact being “cared” for by people who seem to be the main source of viruses being brought into these aged care facilities. Seems wrong to me, just saying.

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      Kalm Keith

      Correction;

      “apparently over 1 million smart devices with attached idiots have done it!”

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    • #

      They were hoping to get a million people to sign up for the app in five days. They got it in the first five hours. Umm, that’s 56 every second. Impressive.

      Hmm! We notice that you were close by someone who has COVID-19, so we’re just informing you. Also, it seems that on day it happened, you were in an area a long long way away from your current postcode address. The $1334 fine is in the mail.

      There’s talk even that you can sign up using a false name, you know if you’re worried about the safety aspect.

      We notice that you were close by someone who has COVID-19, so we’re just informing you. Also, we were wondering why the name you gave doesn’t quite correspond with the name of the owner of the phone number. The Police will be visiting the address given by the owner of that phone number to umm, clear that up.

      Tony.

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        I’ll sign up and see what protections there are Tony , my phone battery lasts about 30 minutes with Bluetooth turned on so I only use it to check battery voltages in 4WD and camper trailer .
        I have a Sat tracker on my 4WD so can be traced and tracked anywhere anytime , I have google maps or version of on a camping spot app so it’s always on in the background.
        I’d be a lot happier about the app if they legislated that it was only to be used for covid tracking and even then just for those confirmed with the virus .

        20

      • #
        JanEarth

        Tony

        It is illegal for Police to access this information. Just let them try and it will be settled in court and I don’t fancy their chances.

        At some point you need to trust other people with good intentions, fortunately most Australians see AusGov as being fair dinkum in their promises.

        As for privacy concerns we gave that up a long time ago when we first went on the ‘net. It’s too late the gate has been left open and that horse has long since bolted. Unless your device is encrypted and you are using a secure program like TOR then they know what you are up to. If your phone is anything but a burner you are also screwed… this is the price we pay for the convenience of modern tech. Even you bloody car tracks you and stores the data these days.

        The only thing I worry about is battery life… blue tooth in my experience is a hungry beast.

        If this means we get back to normal quicker then I am in. I see a light at the end of the tunnel… already NT is looking like it is virus free and they have freedoms we all want… Lucky buggers 🙂

        30

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          I may have missed this because it was in the fine print, but when does this tracking stop?

          10

          • #
            Robber

            AS I understand it, the COVID SAFE app will use bluetooth to record any 15 minute “nearness” to another phone with the app. The two phones will then exchange phone numbers. That data will be deleted after 21 days. But if either person catches the virus, health authorities will ask you to upload those 21 days of contacts so that those exposed can be quickly contacted.

            00

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          Kalm Keith

          Captain Jane.

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      • #
        disorganise

        Yeah, a few things wrong with the app…

        You put a false name, and when they call and ask for ‘Gladys’ you’re gonna think prank…forgetting you put the name in some app.
        Because the matching is done centrally and you have to supply your phone number – fraud calls just got more credible ‘let me just confirm your medicare to continue…oh, and the test is $100 upfront and I can take that payment now’.
        The app only works for Australians – so when International flights resume, we won’t be on the same system.
        There’s a central DB of phone numbers and potentially names and postcodes. Probably not a huge deal tbh, but not necessary.

        Hopefully the uptake will be low and this version of the app abandoned. The Google/Apple API method is much better and hopefully we’ll get an app based on that;
        10 min ID generation (versus 2 hours)
        Daily download of ‘flagged’ ID’s – the phone itself then does the matching with the ID’s stored locally and let’s you know if you’re at risk. No phone number registration etc needed – the onus is then on you to let the health authority know.
        The beacon ID will be in the OS, meaning phones will work globally – so an overseas phone can still be detected and the ID recorded. The only question mark, is whether you’ll only be downloaded AU flagged ID’s to match or global – but at least the capability is there.

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    Lee

    I came across a very old post about the cost of solar relative to coal – http://joannenova.com.au/2019/04/solar-power-at-70-is-still-twice-the-price-of-brown-coal/

    In the comments down the bottom, Jo went through how the bidding process for energy works. I’ve posted some of what she said below.

    I was wondering, can anyone tell me how the bidding process works with an RET? Are coal providers precluded from bidding a % of the time?

    Thanks

    Does this help?

    The spot price of electricity is set by bidding in five minute blocks. All the generators put in an offer saying how much they can generate and at what cost eg: Loy yang might offer to do 1GW at $14/MWh. If demand is 25GW for that five minute period, the AEMO accepts all the lowest bids until it gets the full 25GW of supply. The highest winning bid that is accepted then sets the price for all the winning generators. The generators who bid higher than that get told they aren’t needed and get nothing.

    So sometimes Tas Hydro will bid -$1000/MW, but this is so they are definitely included in the winning pool. They will probably get paid, say $80/MWh.

    When we had more brown coal there were many times when brown coal could supply all the needed electricity and therefore set the price. When that happened, the spot prices were (as shown above) very cheap. After Hazelwood shut the price leapt because now the demand exceeds the supply from brown coal most of the time, and thus black coal/hydro sets the winning bid.

    Remember all the other brown coal gens are probably very happy about this situation. (Less competition). They are all making out like bandits and being paid at the same rate the black coal winning bids are now setting prices at.

    Lord help us on days when gas, wind and solar set the winning bids. Armageddon comes when diesel gens set the price. But even diesel gens (around $300/MW) are a bargain compared to the $14,500MW cap price. (Why was that number picked, I’d like to know?)

    20

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    Another Ian

    “Fear, Complexity, & Environmental Management in the 21st Century”

    “On the anniversary of Chernobyl”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/26/fear-complexity-environmental-management-in-the-21st-century/

    20

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    RickWill

    I will need to upgrade my 2016 brick to use COVIDSafe. It requires Android 6. That came out in 2015 but did not make it to my phone.

    40

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Didn’t realise that so won’t load on my phone then it’s even earlier phone .

      00

      • #
        RickWill

        I wonder how many people in the so-called high risk category update their phone every three years?

        I expect to see some complaints about its incompatibility with older phones.

        30

        • #
          robert rosicka

          I’m in the high risk category but being a heavy smoker might mean the virus won’t like what it finds in my lungs .
          My phone is an old Samsung Note 3 no idea of age but just love the fact I can highjack any TV and most remote operated devices so I’m not ditching it in a hurry .

          20

        • #
          toorightmate

          How many people in the high risk area have an iPhone?

          00

        • #
          yarpos

          Just more Govt IT genius. The VIC Emeregency Services app was a load of cr&p if you used an older Android version also. Competence is not the norm.

          00

  • #
    WXcycles

    La-Nina trend capture on 23rd April shows more organisation with cooler water getting shallower. Looks like a July or Aug La Nina kick off. Interesting Spring and Summer to come.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2020&month=04

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    Raving

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview

    At the moment, we are seeing half-empty ICUs in Germany. ….Now, what I call the “prevention paradox” has set in. People are claiming we over-reacted, there is political and economic pressure to return to normal. The federal plan is to lift lockdown slightly, but because the German states, or Länder, set their own rules, I fear we’re going to see a lot of creativity in the interpretation of that plan. I worry that the reproduction number will start to climb again, and we will have a second wave.

    The floodgates of startup are opening across the world. I don’t like it but see no way of preventing this rising tide of recklessness. It will lead to a dirty and heterogeneous place of between 5% to 60% or more having been infected. By such time there will be a dwindling incentive to find a cure or vaccine. Much of the damage will already have been done, not so much further damage to go. Cannot see how to stop this eventuality. Expect it will occur in months rather than a year and doubt an effective treatment will arrive by that time

    Yes Australia can and probably will crush the curve. Unfortunately the rest of the world will neither be that way, nor likely to ever eradicate covid19. I truly wish it were otherwise

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The data is early and uncertain
      But people who recover gradually lose the antibodies they developed.

      So reinfection will happen.
      And as each age cohort gets older
      It will become more vulnerable
      This needs to be seriously thought about
      By all thinking they can cope with this foreign virus.

      By contrast Australia seems blessed.

      20

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    Hamish Marshall

    Jo
    These 2 specialists relay their data from the front line in the US – courtesy of Powerline.
    A must watch….https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/a-report-from-the-front-lines.php

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  • #
    Slithers

    As an Authority on Computers in general and specifically personal computers with over Sixty yeas in the IT industry may I tell you of my exposure to things PC wise.
    I had my first Personal computer in 1977, a commodore pet, the one with a membrane keyboard same as the one that featured in a StarTrek episode.
    I soon graduated to a Rair Black Box. The original IBM personal/small business computer was a Display Writer CPM with two 8″ floppy drives. I was programming some using dbase II
    in !982.
    I was selling and programming bespoke software on an Aussie made CPM machine Labtam, until the bottom fell out the market after the first IBM PC came out late 1983
    up until then CPM was the best even had multi-access dbaseIi in 1983, SuperCalc, Wordstar Dataflex were all good programs, all killed off or migrated with name changes after that dreadfully slow IBM PC was in full production, but aggressive sales soon saw the end of CPM.
    I sold my company and got a job while I mastered MSDOS became self employed again in 1989 as a help desk operative (contractor) for an Aussie Insurance Company. I still import equipment and build my own PC’s I have a small home network. Never had much experience with Apple or Mac’s though.
    The first hard disks were 10 Mb I had some 100 mb disk installations running at the end of 1983 and th0se systems cost around $5,000 the really expensive parts were the software written specifically for your business by people like me.
    Micro-Softs latest product Windows 10 S. is a crock, Not PC compatible if you turn S mode Off so a buy from Microsoft store but do not expect other products to be fully functional.

    20

    • #
      yarpos

      W10 is fine if you tone it down. Can easily be made to look like W7 and dump tiles and Cortana. Get an open browser and office suite and its an ok package. Updates to often but thee you go.

      We are about 50% Linux these days and it seems an easier world to live in now its packaged better. Dont think I will ever buy anotger MS product.

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    Tale of two panics — Covid & Climate
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/04/27/tale-of-two-panics-covid-climate/

    While they are occurring on vastly different time scales, the Covid-19 panic and the climate change panic are remarkably similar. Perhaps there are certain basic social panic mechanisms that always occur, which are yet to be discovered. Yet in any case the striking similarities between these two are worth exploring a bit.

    To begin with, each panic began with runaway computer models. In the Covid case the U.S. death count was projected to be around 2,000,000, clearly calling for draconian government action, which soon followed. That number now stands at about 60,000, about the same as a bad flu year, but the damage is well underway.

    Claims that the ruinous actions brought the numbers down are belied by the countries that fared just as well without them. Nor do we know what made the model so “hot” as it has not been analyzed, or even properly documented and released for analysis.

    In the climate case the hot models take a benign increase in atmospheric CO2 and turn it into a coming catastrophe. We actually know how they do this using massive (and purely speculative) positive feedbacks from water vapor and clouds. That these models have clearly been falsified by observation is ignored by their masters.

    In both cases the speculative terror to come was heartily embraced by the mainstream media, accompanied by relentless cries for action. Predictably the public responded with fear, giving the government ample room for action.

    In both cases the result has been mandates for economically destructive abstinence. In the Covid case the mandate is to hide thy self away. Don’t go out, don’t go to work, don’t go to school. That the economy is rapidly collapsing is no surprise.

    In the climate case the mandate is to stop using our primary source of energy — fossil fuels. Don’t drive. Don’t fly. Don’t eat meat. Build millions of windmills and solar collectors. Commit to zero carbon suicide. That the economy is slowly collapsing is no surprise. Energy prices rise and rise.

    In both cases the ridiculous bandaid that is applied to catastrophic collapse is a so-called “stimulus”. Millions are out of work so they get just over a thousand dollars. Windmills and solar panels do not work as needed so they get subsidies. And still the government feeds the fear.

    What is really needed in both cases is freedom and reality. Freedom from computer driven fear, freedom from fear driven mandates, and the reality that the problem being solved by collapse never existed in the first place.

    These are both panics, pure and simple. Recovery will not be easy because fear, once begun, is long lasting. Children were already having nightmares fueled by climate fear, now they are afraid to go outside and play. In both cases the worst may be yet to come because the fear mongers are relentless.

    Still we will wallow out of this pit, despite the governments that put us into it.

    The bigger challenge is how to prevent catastrophic panics in future? In communication science this sort of thing is called a “cascade”. The model results trigger the press, who trigger the people, who trigger the government.

    Each step is an amplifier, whereby a hot model hurts hundreds of millions of people. Maybe the model is the place to start. Perhaps presenting catastrophic conjectures as established facts should be punishable, so people do not do it.

    Giving a false alarm that causes great harm is wrong. Calling the false alarm science does not change this fact. If anything it makes it worse. Scientists are supposed to be very careful about their claims.

    Of course we also need to fight the virus, but medically not socially. We also need a workable virus prevention and protection system, especially one that prevents panic. A good way to fund this system is by redirecting money slated for foolishly fighting CO2.

    See my https://clintel.org/fight-virus-not-carbon/.

    End

    Please share this widely.

    David

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      Raving

      There is a crucial distinction between covid and climate. It’s the time scale.

      Things move quickly during a pandemic. Scientific pronouncements prove their worth or uselessness. The consequences of decisions come home to roost. Short memories rule

      So too does panic change the outcome of the epidemic because the panic episode is long lived relative to the pandemic interval.

      In short it is much easier to hide bad science in climate change because the truth doesn’t out itself in a meaningful timefram

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      disorganise

      Claims that the ruinous actions brought the numbers down are belied by the countries that fared just as well without them.

      Which ones? Would be helpful to include their names in the article to back the assertion. Sweden maybe? Their death rate is notably higher than ours whilst lower than the likes of UK and US. Whom else is doing it without ‘lockdown’ style restrictions?

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        You have to compare the no-lockdown country deaths with the over 2 million U.S. deaths predicted. There is no comparison. Thus the U.S. lockdown did not save 1,940,000 lives.

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    Another Ian

    Watch this and then you know

    https://youtu.be/wVs5AyjzwRM

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    yarpos

    I wonder if the Chinese ambassador will be called in to discuss his economic threats if Australia continues to question the evil empire. What wonderful world citizens they are.

    We should disengage as much as possible. They will certainly drop us whenever it suits so we should limt the damage.

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    Kim

    Australia: 83 killed by the Wuhan Bat Flu, meanwhile 12,000 died from other causes.

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