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Climate Change means Perth smashes the coldest ever record for February

Plan for Ghost Town has been delayed

Yesterday Perth had it’s coldest ever February day (since 1910) with temperatures only making it up to 17.4C. This is not just 0.1 or 0.2C below the previous coldest record in February, but a whole 1.7C colder. Perth also got its second wettest February Day (of any season) with a 106mm of rain.

This is peak summer. So much for Tim Flannery’s Ghost Town prophesy.

(To put a fine point on just how far from normal this is, the actual coldest observation in February before this was in 1991 at 19.8C, but that was adjusted down by 0.7C  in the All-Wondrous-ACORN data set. So yesterday was a “sigma-lot” below normal). I’ll post soon on how this is not just a one-day thing, but part of a longer curious record for the region.

Another bazillion gigatons of coal emissions since 1991…

POST NOTE: It’s sweltering on the east coast, and still cold and now flooding on the west. The tables below were updated — today was yet another “top ten” coldest ever day in Perth.

How long before the “hot-n- cold” floods-in-summer thing is blamed on air conditioners? –  Jo


Perth cold records smashed

Guest Post Chris Gillham

As predicted, a new cold record has been set in Perth.

Just 10 days after Perth Metro had its 4th coldest January maximum since 1897 and Perth Airport its coldest January day since opening in 1945, the February daily record has been smashed at both stations.

Perth’s forecast was 20C. Perth Metro today had a maximum of 17.4C and Perth Airport  17.1C. That’s absurdly cold and won’t be repeated in our lifetimes.

Perth Maximum Temperatures, 1910 -2017, coldest record, January, Coldest Record, February.

Courier Mail headlines yesterday were ‘Hell on Earth’ Heat Coming Our Way and the headlines today have been about South Australia’s latest mass blackouts because the windmills couldn’t supply enough power when everybody turned their air-conditioners on in 42.4C heat. What will happen if Adelaide ever matches its record 46.1C set in 1939? (I note that on Monday Kent Town, Adelaide, had its equal 5th coldest February day since the station opened in 1977).
Here in Perth, the most likely cause of a mass blackout is everybody turning their heaters on in the middle of February, but nothing to worry about because coal and natural gas keep it humming along. I’ve had a jumper on since getting out of bed.

The media will have to mention Perth’s coldest February day on record but it’ll be quickly forgotten and I doubt any media will reference the coldest January and February max happening within 10 days of each other while the planet supposedly melts because of global warming. This after the coldest winter since 1990 and the coldest September on record for southern WA. Since the media has been in fits about the eastern states heatwave (you call that a heatwave?), it’s probably worth somebody blogging about what’s happening in the west – if only to point out what the media doesn’t point out.

Scanning Pilbara and Kimberley weather stations, the hottest it got anywhere today was just over 30C. Learmonth in the Pilbara had a max of 22.9C, compared to the previous February record of 23.8C. Only the eastern interior warmed up and the best effort was Giles at 38.4C.

Records breaking all over WA

Esperance had a max of 15.2C, wiping out the previous February record of 16.8C in 1963. Bickley got to 13.7C, compared to the previous record coldest max of 18.0C in 2006. Rottnest Island got to 17.2C, the previous coldest February day being 18.7C in 1991. The max today in Gingin was 16.2C, compared to the previous February record of 22.3C in 2006. Cunderdin today was 16.4C, compared to a previous record of 17.8C in 1981, while Dalwallinu’s max today was 17.5C, compared to a prior record February max of 19.5C in 2008.

I wouldn’t be surprised if today was the coldest February daily max ever recorded throughout WA. Otherwise, Perth’s forecast for the coming week has warmed a bit and the first 16 days of February are expected to have a mean temp 1.6C below the total month’s long-term average.

Trewin mentioned in his 2016 summary that WA’s south was one of only a handful of land areas in the world where 2016 temperatures were slightly below average.

This is the 10th month in a row with below average temperatures in WA’s south and the only plausible explanation for the chill is SST. However, the only reference Trewin makes is that sea surface temperatures in the Australian region were the warmest on record during 2016. Since mid 2016 the Indian and Southern ocean SST in the Australian region hasn’t been this cold for such a prolonged period in decades. The BoM’s SST data for the south-west of Australia is at odds with the maps produced by NOAA. The BoM doesn’t concede any month of 2016 had SST below average in south-west waters, but does concede that January 2017 SST was -0.14C below average.

The BoM says the south of WA had its coldest winter since 1990 and the coldest September min on record (coldest mean also, but they don’t say so). September SST off the south-west was +0.08C, according to BoM data. How do you get repeated hits of the coldest weather since 1897 when the surrounding seas are warmer than average? Both NOAA and the record-breaking south-west cold weather over the past six months have been suggesting that the BoM’s SST anomaly baseline, algorithm and/or buoys aren’t a true reflection of historic averages.

Perth Maximum Temperatures, 1910 -2017, coldest record, January, Coldest Record, February.

Brrrr … can anybody lend us some global warming?

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