Suppose we give billions to the bureaucratic geniuses in Paris. Suppose they are right about how global warming works (though we know they are not). What do we get for all that money?
Combined, all plans, carried out, successful best case, at a cost of hundreds of trillions + : 0.17°C
More realistic more pessimistic case: 0.05°C
If the infra-red reroutes through the atmosphere and climate sensitivity has been overestimated by 5 – 10 fold: 0.02°C
The UN wants us to spend $89 trillion by 2030 to “green up” everything. For that we hope in theory, if we’re lucky to get a reduction of one sixth of a degree 70 years later. Rush, Rush, buy that plan today! Order two, and don’t count the dead.
This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030,
using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained
throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction
in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20-20 policy has
an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and
the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce
global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate
sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the
climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades.
Lomborg, B (2015) Impact of current climate proposals, Copenhagen Consensus Centre. Global Policy (2015) doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12295
* Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) (UN COP 21 in Paris)