What do you say when the Big PR bell is rung? You know the litany: “2010 was the warmest since measuring began, and the previous decade was also the warmest decade on record.” (eg The AGE)
- Sure, and the world has been warming for 300 years, long before the industrial revolution. The trend hasn’t changed as our emissions rose. No one knows exactly why it started rising back then, but it wasn’t CO2.
- Sure and 150 years of “records” is not long. It was warmer 1000 years ago, 2000 years ago, 5000 years ago and 130,000 years ago. In fact its been warmer for most of the last 10,000 years than it is today, and it’s been warmer for most of the last 500 million years. Only people who think CO2 matters keep repeating that it’s warmed from 1850 to now without pointing out the bigger perspective.
- Sure, and the records have been set with thermometers like this one (next to concrete and exhaust vents — see below). There probably weren’t too many car parks or air conditioners in 1880 either. Not to mention the non-random adjustments, and that mystery about how 75% of thermometers are ignored.
Nothing about the “hottest year ever” is meaningful or significant on a big scale. Nor is anything even certain about it on the 150 year scale. After all, most of the original raw data records are missing aren’t they?
Here are some graphs:
This is just a cycling warming on a long term trend that started before CO2 became an issue:
The big temperature picture. Graph and insight from Dr Syun Akasofu (2009 International Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 2009)
Discussed in the post: Global warming: a classic case of alarmism
The trend hasn’t changed:
...
The trend figures come from Phil Jones’ interview with the BBC. Graph discussed here.
The holocene optimum
Don’t forget to allow for another century of warming at the end (be generous) assume its 0.7C more than the last dot on this line and mentally draw a line from -31 across. A lot of the last 10,000 years was warmer.
Greenland Temperatures - last 10,000 years
It was warmer 130,000 years ago:
Vostok Ice Core. Present temperature marked in red.
It was 2 degrees warmer 130,000 years ago. Somehow corals survived, so did the Great Apes.
The Vostok Graphs (and all the posts tagged “Vostok”)
The last 65 million years:
65 million years of global temperatures Image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art
Image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art
Discussed in the post: The big picture: 65 million years of temperature swings
Why measure “records” with thermometers like this?
Figure 1: An official thermometer at a waste water treatment plant. It gets extra warming from air conditioning and refrigeration exhaust, concrete, a brick wall, and some mechanical equipment. It is protected by windbreaks. In addition, the effluent flowing under the grates is well above freezing in winter when vapor can be seen rising from the grates. (The red lines show possible heat paths; obviously only a small portion of the heat from each source gets to the thermometer.) Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts, www.surfacestations.org and Steve Tiemeier.
Discussed here in: Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt? Part I and in The main “cause” of global warming is air conditioners. p7
Lets not forget they mysterious Dying of Thermometers:
The Great Dying of Thermometers
Right about now, it’s time for someone on the Big Scare Campaign to pop in and remind us that Skeptics never back up their arguments.
Resources:
Christopher Monckton roasted one journalist who repeated the litany. And in the interests of fairness, Steketee responds.
Thanks to Ainslie for The Age article and the inspiration.
I’m off on holiday for a few days. See you mid next week.